lpm wrote: ↑Mon Jul 05, 2021 1:22 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Jul 05, 2021 1:07 pm
lpm wrote: ↑Mon Jul 05, 2021 12:56 pm
Would you like to try and define what we are talking about?
Nobody seems to know any more.
It was clear in March 2020 - we needed to lockdown to prevent hospitalisations and deaths. It was clear in October 2020 - we needed to lockdown to prevent hospitalisations and deaths. It was clear in December 2020 - we needed to lockdown to prevent hospitalisations and deaths.
Are you saying there's now a new reason to lockdown?
Well for example, I was talking about "the main risks of reopening" and suggested that they "might be long-term illness in the poor and young, rather than hospitals and death for traditional Tory-voting groups":
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Jul 05, 2021 10:14 am
Suggests the main risks of reopening might be long-term illness in the poor and young, rather than hospitals and death for traditional Tory-voting groups.
You replied with "
No," so I assume you think the main risk is still hospitalisation and death of the elderly?
That level of risk (per 100,000 affected) is certainly far lower than the pre-vaccine risk of serious illness in the elderly, and may well be worth taking (not that many young people will have the choice). While a large chunk of the population is still unvaccinated it would make sense to me to continue with basic precautions like indoor masks and distancing, even if economic activity is largely allowed to resume, because the costs of doing it are so low and long covid is nasty.
This is hopelessly confused and vague.
Try again.
It's obvious the main risk is still hospitalisation and death of the elderly, both vaccinated and unvaccinated. What else is it that you are worried about? High case numbers meaning that Plague Island Brits are banned from going for their annual sunburning in the Med? Lots of children getting mild symptoms? A small number of children getting Long Covid? Loads of potential for new variants?
Spell out your worries.
2 key concerns with a complete removal of all restrictions right now:
1. There were vast numbers of people (my wife among them) who should have gone to hospital during the first wave; but the hospitals were full. Some died at home, others (such as my wife) luckily pulled through.
Being vaccinated seems to lessen the severity of the disease, even with the delta variant. That's good; but at the same time it may well lead to vast numbers of people who would have died merely ending up in hospital and overwhelming the health systems again.
2. Case numbers are rising rapidly. When there's rapid case number rises, that means massive amounts of viral replication, which inevitably will lead to another variant. Will it be epsilon or theta that completely defeats the vaccines? One greek letter will bear horrible gifts, and we should beware it.
Minor, sensible, measures, such as enforcing masks on public transport, seem a no-brainer to me. It's no different to banning smoking in enclosed public(ish) places - your risk-reward calculation rubs up against mine, his, hers & the lass over there who is working here. Your desire to smoke/not wear a mask doesn't trump our desire not to get cancer/COVID.