Scrutable

I think the twitter commentators who were mostly reliable and interesting have got terrible in the past month.

There's a clique who went all in on doom, Herainestold style, and will never abandon that. There's another group who got acclimatised to 2020 unvaxxed Covid and simply couldn't switch to the behaviour of vaxxed Covid. And another load who start with Johnson-is-sh.t and try to distort reality to fit (in particular proclaiming the vaccination program to be a disaster long after it was shown to be successful).

IMO, the correct perspective is that the UK govt decided to race down the motorway on a foggy night and had a pretty reasonable chance of getting away with it. So far they obviously have. You can still say the govt made a reckless choice without needing to seek out scraps of bad news from the pile of data.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:50 pm

I think the twitter commentators who were mostly reliable and interesting have got terrible in the past month.

There's a clique who went all in on doom, Herainestold style, and will never abandon that. There's another group who got acclimatised to 2020 unvaxxed Covid and simply couldn't switch to the behaviour of vaxxed Covid. And another load who start with Johnson-is-sh.t and try to distort reality to fit (in particular proclaiming the vaccination program to be a disaster long after it was shown to be successful).

IMO, the correct perspective is that the UK govt decided to race down the motorway on a foggy night and had a pretty reasonable chance of getting away with it. So far they obviously have. You can still say the govt made a reckless choice without needing to seek out scraps of bad news from the pile of data.

I agree. Johnson has been lucky, again. He’s got away with being reckless, again.

Some Twitter accounts seemed to be really invested in Johnson having f.cked up.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:50 pm

I think the twitter commentators who were mostly reliable and interesting have got terrible in the past month.

There's a clique who went all in on doom, Herainestold style, and will never abandon that. There's another group who got acclimatised to 2020 unvaxxed Covid and simply couldn't switch to the behaviour of vaxxed Covid. And another load who start with Johnson-is-sh.t and try to distort reality to fit (in particular proclaiming the vaccination program to be a disaster long after it was shown to be successful).

IMO, the correct perspective is that the UK govt decided to race down the motorway on a foggy night and had a pretty reasonable chance of getting away with it. So far they obviously have. You can still say the govt made a reckless choice without needing to seek out scraps of bad news from the pile of data.

I originally thought the pandemic would be over by September 2020. Then I thought the second wave would be milder than the first.I thought vaccines would bring us back to normal in 3-4 months. Wrong every time. Mother nature always has more tricks up her sleeve.

Johnson has been incompetent but lucky in one thing, the vaccine development and roll out. He has met his match in Delta. We are having a brief respite while Mother Nature rolls up her sleeves for the autumn wave. Recent data from America shows totally vaccinated people have as much viral load as unvaxed and can easily infect others, and data from Singapore shows Delta is deadlier than earlier strains. When the autumn wave gets going on twenty million unvaxed Britons, adults and children, there will be carnage in the streets. Johnson is willing to let the bodies pile up, he has been quoted on that.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 31, 2021 3:45 am

Johnson has been incompetent but lucky in one thing, the vaccine development and roll out. He has met his match in Delta. We are having a brief respite while Mother Nature rolls up her sleeves for the autumn wave. Recent data from America shows totally vaccinated people have as much viral load as unvaxed and can easily infect others, and data from Singapore shows Delta is deadlier than earlier strains. When the autumn wave gets going on twenty million unvaxed Britons, adults and children, there will be carnage in the streets. Johnson is willing to let the bodies pile up, he has been quoted on that.

We are experiencing an uncontrolled wave of Delta infections in our partially vaccinated population right now.

Of course there could be a new variant but why would there be an autumn resurgence in Delta that causes more.mortality than the current wave of Delta infections???

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:34 am

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 31, 2021 3:45 am

Johnson has been incompetent but lucky in one thing, the vaccine development and roll out. He has met his match in Delta. We are having a brief respite while Mother Nature rolls up her sleeves for the autumn wave. Recent data from America shows totally vaccinated people have as much viral load as unvaxed and can easily infect others, and data from Singapore shows Delta is deadlier than earlier strains. When the autumn wave gets going on twenty million unvaxed Britons, adults and children, there will be carnage in the streets. Johnson is willing to let the bodies pile up, he has been quoted on that.

We are experiencing an uncontrolled wave of Delta infections in our partially vaccinated population right now.

Of course there could be a new variant but why would there be an autumn resurgence in Delta that causes more.mortality than the current wave of Delta infections???

Behaviour changes in the autumn and so R goes up. School, universitiy and work holidays are over, and people congregate less outside and more in poorly ventilated rooms.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:50 am

Behaviour changes in the autumn and so R goes up. School, universitiy and work holidays are over, and people congregate less outside and more in poorly ventilated rooms.

Yes - but on the other hand in the autumn we'll have an even higher proportion of the population vaccinated (which reduces mortality) or with prior exposure to Delta.

Even with current vaccination levels - and fairly uncontrolled spread - the IFR in this June/July wave is a lot lower than the January Alpha wave.

I'm not suggesting a new variant couldn't cause the sort of "carnage in the streets" that Herainestold is suggesting in the autumn. Nor that Delta itself couldn't cause a lot of cases (in the vaccinated or with reinfections).

I suspect any carnage will be limited to ICU wards.

“Carnage on the streets” is ridiculously overwrought hyperbole of the most f.ck-headed order.

headshot wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 31, 2021 1:21 pm

I suspect any carnage will be limited to ICU wards.

“Carnage on the streets” is ridiculously overwrought hyperbole of the most f.ck-headed order.

And linguistically inaccurate.


I'm not hopeful about my local area and its hospitals' ability to cope this autumn/winter. Camden Borough (population c. 264,100) has one of the slowest rates of Covid vaccination in the country: 149,000 first dose (59.4%), 111,600 second dose (44.5%). (Those stats may not add up exactly as they came from two different govt sites). It's also a very popular destination for tourists and other Londoners with lots of indoor venues of all sizes so at the weekends in particular the population is considerably more.

“For years Camden has had the lowest take-up of childhood and other routine vaccinations so this shouldn’t have wrong-footed our council’s leadership.”

http://camdennewjournal.com/article/cam ... in-country

Tessa K wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 31, 2021 2:32 pm

headshot wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 31, 2021 1:21 pm

I suspect any carnage will be limited to ICU wards.

“Carnage on the streets” is ridiculously overwrought hyperbole of the most f.ck-headed order.

And linguistically inaccurate.


I'm not hopeful about my local area and its hospitals' ability to cope this autumn/winter. Camden Borough (population c. 264,100) has one of the slowest rates of Covid vaccination in the country: 149,000 first dose (59.4%), 111,600 second dose (44.5%). (Those stats may not add up exactly as they came from two different govt sites). It's also a very popular destination for tourists and other Londoners with lots of indoor venues of all sizes so at the weekends in particular the population is considerably more.

“For years Camden has had the lowest take-up of childhood and other routine vaccinations so this shouldn’t have wrong-footed our council’s leadership.”

http://camdennewjournal.com/article/cam ... in-country

How is it inaccurate?

The meaning of carnage is the killing of people.

Do you think there will be killings in the streets?

headshot wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 01, 2021 10:34 am

The meaning of carnage is the killing of people.

Do you think there will be killings in the streets?

From the Latin for flesh and the old French/Italian meaning slaughter. Also as in Carnival (the last day of eating meat before Lent) and carnivore, flesh eater.***

But then as Sophie Ellis Bexter sang - it's murder on the dance floor ...


*** Humanities grad

headshot wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 01, 2021 10:34 am

The meaning of carnage is the killing of people.

Do you think there will be killings in the streets?

People were dying in the street in Ecuador and in India. If the NHS gets overwhelmed it could happen here.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 01, 2021 4:06 pm

headshot wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 01, 2021 10:34 am

The meaning of carnage is the killing of people.

Do you think there will be killings in the streets?

People were dying in the street in Ecuador and in India. If the NHS gets overwhelmed it could happen here.

And in the cheese aisle of Sainsbury's too apparently.

gosling wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:44 pm

Just got back from my local Sainsbury's. Typical pre-Christmas day, though the queue was like lockdown 1. Pasta and toilet roll aisles well-stocked and quiet. Cheese aisle - carnage!

Or maybe it's ok to use a word in a way which isn't strictly literal.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 01, 2021 4:23 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 01, 2021 4:06 pm

headshot wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 01, 2021 10:34 am

The meaning of carnage is the killing of people.

Do you think there will be killings in the streets?

People were dying in the street in Ecuador and in India. If the NHS gets overwhelmed it could happen here.

And in the cheese aisle of Sainsbury's too apparently.

gosling wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:44 pm

Just got back from my local Sainsbury's. Typical pre-Christmas day, though the queue was like lockdown 1. Pasta and toilet roll aisles well-stocked and quiet. Cheese aisle - carnage!

Or maybe it's ok to use a word in a way which isn't strictly literal.

People do it literally all the time.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 01, 2021 4:23 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 01, 2021 4:06 pm

headshot wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 01, 2021 10:34 am

The meaning of carnage is the killing of people.

Do you think there will be killings in the streets?

People were dying in the street in Ecuador and in India. If the NHS gets overwhelmed it could happen here.

And in the cheese aisle of Sainsbury's too apparently.

gosling wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:44 pm

Just got back from my local Sainsbury's. Typical pre-Christmas day, though the queue was like lockdown 1. Pasta and toilet roll aisles well-stocked and quiet. Cheese aisle - carnage!

Or maybe it's ok to use a word in a way which isn't strictly literal.

Except when it's inaccurate and histrionic.

Cut him some slack. Inaccurate and histrionic is his shtick.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:50 am

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:34 am

We are experiencing an uncontrolled wave of Delta infections in our partially vaccinated population right now.

Of course there could be a new variant but why would there be an autumn resurgence in Delta that causes more.mortality than the current wave of Delta infections???

Behaviour changes in the autumn and so R goes up. School, universitiy and work holidays are over, and people congregate less outside and more in poorly ventilated rooms.

Autumn doesn't look good but I guess we see where we are with cases at the start of September. We could run into trouble if the drop in cases stalls this week and schools go back at 25,000 a day. But I think we can afford to be complacent if starting below 10,000.

lpm wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 02, 2021 8:00 am

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:50 am

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:34 am

We are experiencing an uncontrolled wave of Delta infections in our partially vaccinated population right now.

Of course there could be a new variant but why would there be an autumn resurgence in Delta that causes more.mortality than the current wave of Delta infections???

Behaviour changes in the autumn and so R goes up. School, universitiy and work holidays are over, and people congregate less outside and more in poorly ventilated rooms.

Autumn doesn't look good but I guess we see where we are with cases at the start of September. We could run into trouble if the drop in cases stalls this week and schools go back at 25,000 a day. But I think we can afford to be complacent if starting below 10,000.

Autumn looks quite scary. Wait until October. An early lockdown might save Christmas, but I fear it won't happen.

Actually I think cases will start rising again this week. Keep your mask on. Both of them.

Herainestold, watch this: https://youtu.be/SddFBebSk-c?t=28

headshot wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:27 am

Herainestold, watch this: https://youtu.be/SddFBebSk-c?t=28

Thank you. That Dr. Jha is very smooth and persuasive. I don't trust him.

I think he plays down the risk to children. A consequence of our vaccine rollout is that the risk is consistently being pushed down the age cohorts towards younger people. Now the risk of the most transmissive and virulent variant yet is going to punish our children when schools re open.

He also doesnt seem to be concerned about long covid.

Still some intersting information, thanks.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:17 pm

headshot wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:27 am

Herainestold, watch this: https://youtu.be/SddFBebSk-c?t=28

Thank you. That Dr. Jha is very smooth and persuasive. I don't trust him.

I think he plays down the risk to children. A consequence of our vaccine rollout is that the risk is consistently being pushed down the age cohorts towards younger people. Now the risk of the most transmissive and virulent variant yet is going to punish our children when schools re open.

He also doesnt seem to be concerned about long covid.

Still some intersting information, thanks.

Children who become ill with coronavirus rarely experience long-term symptoms, with most recovering in less than a week, research suggests. King's College London scientists say that while a small group may experience prolonged illness, they were "reassured" that number was low. Headaches and tiredness were the most common symptoms seen. A Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health expert said the data reflected what doctors saw in clinics.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58071898

Never let facts or science-based analysis get in the way of H's loss of reason.

Tessa K wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 04, 2021 3:04 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:17 pm

headshot wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:27 am

Herainestold, watch this: https://youtu.be/SddFBebSk-c?t=28

Thank you. That Dr. Jha is very smooth and persuasive. I don't trust him.

I think he plays down the risk to children. A consequence of our vaccine rollout is that the risk is consistently being pushed down the age cohorts towards younger people. Now the risk of the most transmissive and virulent variant yet is going to punish our children when schools re open.

He also doesnt seem to be concerned about long covid.

Still some intersting information, thanks.

Children who become ill with coronavirus rarely experience long-term symptoms, with most recovering in less than a week, research suggests. King's College London scientists say that while a small group may experience prolonged illness, they were "reassured" that number was low. Headaches and tiredness were the most common symptoms seen. A Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health expert said the data reflected what doctors saw in clinics.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58071898

Severe pediatric COVID cases on the rise (Daily Memphian)

Serious cases of COVID-19 have doubled at Le Bonheur Children’s Hospital in 10 days, a worrisome barometer as pediatric cases tick up across the region.

“It’s both increased and sustained,” said Dr. Nick Hysmith, medical director of infection prevention at Le Bonheur and associate professor at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center.

Eight children are hospitalized at Le Bonheur with COVID; two are in critical care.

Two others died over the weekend. One was a resident of Shelby County. The other was to be transferred to Le Bonheur but died before leaving a rural hospital.

Hysmith did not say how old they were or where the child had been hospitalized.

“What we’ve seen in the last week and half is that children are in critical care for COVID-19 illness requiring significant intervention. And that number is being sustained,” Hysmith said.

“The recent increase in pediatric cases in Shelby County and adjoining states should serve as a wake-up call to Shelby County parents that children can and do get and transmit the COVID-19 virus,” Taylor said.

At Christ Community Health Services, a network of clinics serving primarily the poor in the Memphis area, the rise in symptomatic pediatric cases is startling.

“Before the Delta variant came, the children who tested positive were usually healthy members of the family in which there were one or two adult cases,” said pediatrician Andrew Nearn.

“In the last month, I have seen children come in with coughs, fever, malaise – just ill-appearing – and testing positive. I’d never seen kids this symptomatic until the Delta variant came out,” he said.

https://dailymemphian.com/section/busin ... 2021-08-04

headshot wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 04, 2021 3:46 pm

Never let facts or science-based analysis get in the way of H's loss of reason.

Coincidently, this has appeared: on the BBC news site