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Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sat May 08, 2021 11:21 am
by mediocrity511
Hartlepool and the Tees Valley mayoral race do not surprise me. The Conservatives have promised loads of investment and jobs in the area, there's the Tees Valley Freeport (which includes Hartlepool), there's Durham-tees Valley Airport, Houchen was very loudly calling for the Treasury to move to Darlington and they are. I'm sure there's an element of voting Tory in exchange for all that investment. The area has benefited from having a Tory Mayor and I think even people who aren't natural Conservatives hope that will continue.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sat May 08, 2021 4:12 pm
by nezumi
mediocrity511 wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 11:21 am
Hartlepool and the Tees Valley mayoral race do not surprise me. The Conservatives have promised loads of investment and jobs in the area, there's the Tees Valley Freeport (which includes Hartlepool), there's Durham-tees Valley Airport, Houchen was very loudly calling for the Treasury to move to Darlington and they are. I'm sure there's an element of voting Tory in exchange for all that investment. The area has benefited from having a Tory Mayor and I think even people who aren't natural Conservatives hope that will continue.
Basically that is the case from the people I've spoken to locally. There's still a lot of pro-Johnson rhetoric going around but it's all definitely coloured by the very vocally and overtly Actually Investing in the Area After 50 Years. There's this sense that you have to vote for them cos that's the only way we're going to get anything. Labour have left an awful lot of people bitterly disappointed.
Back in 1997 the feeling around here was "finally we have a leader who will remember Teesside exists", Blair was the MP for Sedgefield after all. Nope. Nothing worth having. Even all the EU funding went to things like education* and making the high streets pretty, absolutely nothing practical was done to bring jobs to the North East - and most people in Teesside are very hard working. I know this because I know LOADS of them.
The people who aren't are a mixed bag. We've got people who are working under the counter and claiming and, actually, I'm fine with that. For the record: I worked that way and declared every penny as self-employed and couldn't claim benefits. I'm fine with that too, well, ok, not fine with the benefits thing. What century are we living in RE: partner claims? Just because I'm married does not mean my husband has to pay for my keep. Equal rights go both ways. (I also disagree with the married tax allowance.)
We have people who have never worked, whose parents have never worked - but their Grandparents did and the work ethic has been lost because there has not been enough jobs, and crucially Labour had 12 years and didn't do anything practical to help at all.
We then have people who want to live in their home town but are massively overqualified for everything going.
Finally we have normal families with normal lives just wanting them to be a bit easier and better jobs in the area are an enormous bonus to them too.
Henderson and Johnson are actually coasting on the work Ben Houchen has done. He's a local lad and he's young. I don't know him personally, but he is well-liked in the region. Particularly by people who haven't had to try to contact him because he never answers his emails apparently. He doesn't answer questions on Facebook either. He's got both mouth and trousers though. In my opinion Henderson doesn't have to do a thing - she just needs to stay out of Houchen's way.
What confuses the heck out of me is why is Ben Houchen a Tory? because he doesn't really seem like one - yet.
* Education is wonderful, but what's the point in it if there's no jobs to go to? And what's the point in local taxes paying for it when the product will simply move to London?
ETA: I've got a lot of friends, formerly Labour, who are defecting to
these guys.
I rather like them too.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sat May 08, 2021 4:52 pm
by mediocrity511
nezumi wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 4:12 pm
mediocrity511 wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 11:21 am
Hartlepool and the Tees Valley mayoral race do not surprise me. The Conservatives have promised loads of investment and jobs in the area, there's the Tees Valley Freeport (which includes Hartlepool), there's Durham-tees Valley Airport, Houchen was very loudly calling for the Treasury to move to Darlington and they are. I'm sure there's an element of voting Tory in exchange for all that investment. The area has benefited from having a Tory Mayor and I think even people who aren't natural Conservatives hope that will continue.
Basically that is the case from the people I've spoken to locally. There's still a lot of pro-Johnson rhetoric going around but it's all definitely coloured by the very vocally and overtly Actually Investing in the Area After 50 Years. There's this sense that you have to vote for them cos that's the only way we're going to get anything. Labour have left an awful lot of people bitterly disappointed.
Back in 1997 the feeling around here was "finally we have a leader who will remember Teesside exists", Blair was the MP for Sedgefield after all. Nope. Nothing worth having. Even all the EU funding went to things like education* and making the high streets pretty, absolutely nothing practical was done to bring jobs to the North East - and most people in Teesside are very hard working. I know this because I know LOADS of them.
The people who aren't are a mixed bag. We've got people who are working under the counter and claiming and, actually, I'm fine with that. For the record: I worked that way and declared every penny as self-employed and couldn't claim benefits. I'm fine with that too, well, ok, not fine with the benefits thing. What century are we living in RE: partner claims? Just because I'm married does not mean my husband has to pay for my keep. Equal rights go both ways. (I also disagree with the married tax allowance.)
We have people who have never worked, whose parents have never worked - but their Grandparents did and the work ethic has been lost because there has not been enough jobs, and crucially Labour had 12 years and didn't do anything practical to help at all.
We then have people who want to live in their home town but are massively overqualified for everything going.
Finally we have normal families with normal lives just wanting them to be a bit easier and better jobs in the area are an enormous bonus to them too.
Henderson and Johnson are actually coasting on the work Ben Houchen has done. He's a local lad and he's young. I don't know him personally, but he is well-liked in the region. Particularly by people who haven't had to try to contact him because he never answers his emails apparently. He doesn't answer questions on Facebook either. He's got both mouth and trousers though. In my opinion Henderson doesn't have to do a thing - she just needs to stay out of Houchen's way.
What confuses the heck out of me is why is Ben Houchen a Tory? because he doesn't really seem like one - yet.
* Education is wonderful, but what's the point in it if there's no jobs to go to? And what's the point in local taxes paying for it when the product will simply move to London?
ETA: I've got a lot of friends, formerly Labour, who are defecting to
these guys.
I rather like them too.
Would Ben Houchen have got half as much done if he wasn't a Tory though? A lot of it is pure pork barrel politics.
But people are appreciative, even my Dad (who has been on many anti government protests etc.) is grudgingly approving of what he's brought to the reason (not that he'd go as far as voting for him). My brother and his mates are all quite enamoured with the NIP though too!
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sat May 08, 2021 5:05 pm
by nezumi
mediocrity511 wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 4:52 pm
Would Ben Houchen have got half as much done if he wasn't a Tory though? A lot of it is pure pork barrel politics.
But people are appreciative, even my Dad (who has been on many anti government protests etc.) is grudgingly approving of what he's brought to the reason (not that he'd go as far as voting for him). My brother and his mates are all quite enamoured with the NIP though too!
No he wouldn't and that sickens me anyway! Politics should never, ever be like that. Just another reason to get PR IMO. Even I am grudgingly approving and I would never vote for him either.
I'd definitely vote NIP though - but that's splitting the left vote unless Labour try to actually get the left-wing on board. That
is ostensibly what they're for. There's a lot of people up here who are left of Labour and feel not just underrepresented but utterly unappreciated. Unfortunately, in their eyes the Tories are the only other gig going and that, in itself, it a calamity.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sat May 08, 2021 7:30 pm
by Vertigowooyay
Silver linings...
- 90388FF0-4B0F-4E9A-8AAC-08AE166D6368.jpeg (594.72 KiB) Viewed 2082 times
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sat May 08, 2021 7:43 pm
by bjn
Vertigowooyay wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 7:30 pm
Silver linings...
90388FF0-4B0F-4E9A-8AAC-08AE166D6368.jpeg
I had quite a few Facebook ads from the plonkers, I hope that cost them a pretty penny. I made sure to call them granny killers on all the ones I saw.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sat May 08, 2021 8:35 pm
by discovolante
Well, the Scottish Greens have gained two seats and are now on 8, which is a decent outcome. Alba, the hard-Brexit gammon version of the pro-Indy parties, have tanked and got nothing. Good.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sat May 08, 2021 9:25 pm
by Little waster
Well the important thing is Labour is finally getting in touch with its former working class voters from the North of England by ... [checks notes] ... sacking one of its most prominent working class Northern members.
But look look Kier Starmer is wearing a Union Jack underpants I imagine the whippet-f.ckers will come flocking back to Labour any day now!
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sat May 08, 2021 9:34 pm
by nezumi
Little waster wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 9:25 pm
Well the important thing is Labour is finally getting in touch with its former working class voters from the North of England by ... [checks notes] ... sacking one of its most prominent working class Northern members.
But look look Kier Starmer is wearing a Union Jack underpants I imagine the whippet-f.ckers will come flocking back to Labour any day now!
They haven't half f.cked up good and proper. Labour's given up on being left wing altogether.
I don't know if anyone's already posted this one:
https://labourlist.org/2021/05/labour-m ... n-results/
In a piece for Policy Exchange, the MP and senior fellow at the right-wing think tank has described the loss of Hartlepool in a devastating by-election defeat on Thursday as “yet another wake-up call for my party”
It's the sixth time I've read that and I'm still not certain I've parsed it correctly.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sat May 08, 2021 10:05 pm
by science_fox
I'm not at all sure policies and Deals etc make the blindest bit of difference - if they don't get significant and continual positive media coverage (not just the BBC but that would help), then no-one will know they exist. The hugest majority are not members of any party, don't see anyone political except in the paper/news/socials and only think about politics if they're reminded it's an election or there's a huge media push that day. Needs a huge mental awareness to think of anyone except the colour they've always voted. The next 'familiar' colour from the media will be the one they choose.
For all Starmer's rhetoric skills, and everyone else's actual policies and concerns the only coverage has been of Bojo's successes. So I'm not at all surprised he's done well. There was a bit of murdoch revolt in the last couple of days over excessive corruption, and if that can continue being in everyone's face and associated with an opposition not being involved then there's a slight chance of some change next time people have a cross to put somewhere.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sat May 08, 2021 10:52 pm
by Little waster
nezumi wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 9:34 pm
https://labourlist.org/2021/05/labour-m ... n-results/
In a piece for Policy Exchange, the MP and senior fellow at the right-wing think tank has described the loss of Hartlepool in a devastating by-election defeat on Thursday as “yet another wake-up call for my party”
It's the sixth time I've read that and I'm still not certain I've parsed it correctly.
Well that's dead easy.
Basically a Labour MP is for some reason a fellow of a widely-discredited right wing think tank with completely opaque
funding, some very bizarre (and anti-Northern)
opinions and is proudly antithetical to everything the Labour Party has ever stood for and therefore that puts him in the perfect position to diagnose that Labour's problem directly stem from $whateverbaselesslies the far-right press have directly copy and pasted from the Bumper Book of Republican Culture War b.llsh.t this week so therefore all Labour needs to do is completely surrender the narrative to Melanie Philips and then spend all their energy to disprove a fictional negative.
What could possibly go wrong?
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sun May 09, 2021 3:08 pm
by Bewildered
Has anyone heard of these numpties before
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sc ... s-57025065 ?
Googling liberal party Scotland gives the old Scottish liberals..
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sun May 09, 2021 3:16 pm
by Bird on a Fire
science_fox wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 10:05 pm
I'm not at all sure policies and Deals etc make the blindest bit of difference - if they don't get significant and continual positive media coverage (not just the BBC but that would help), then no-one will know they exist. The hugest majority are not members of any party, don't see anyone political except in the paper/news/socials and only think about politics if they're reminded it's an election or there's a huge media push that day. Needs a huge mental awareness to think of anyone except the colour they've always voted. The next 'familiar' colour from the media will be the one they choose.
For all Starmer's rhetoric skills, and everyone else's actual policies and concerns the only coverage has been of Bojo's successes. So I'm not at all surprised he's done well. There was a bit of murdoch revolt in the last couple of days over excessive corruption, and if that can continue being in everyone's face and associated with an opposition not being involved then there's a slight chance of some change next time people have a cross to put somewhere.
Massive gains for the Greens in England, who are the only party with policies offering anything for young people, and the one party focused on taking adequate evidence-based measures about the biggest issues on the table.
And I bet that's based on policies, because nobody can name a single Green politician except maybe Caroline Lucas, and they never get press coverage other than silly sneering from the usual idiots.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sun May 09, 2021 3:19 pm
by Bird on a Fire
I'm also willing to bet most SNP voters are au fait with at least one of their policies
So assuming the youth turn out next year I reckon Scotland will be rejoining the EU pretty soon.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sun May 09, 2021 3:40 pm
by monkey
They're from the Liberals who didn't want to join the SDP to make the Lib Dems. They're basically a libertarian party now it seems.
An old friend of mine lost his deposit standing for them in the 2019 general, and just lost his deposit the other day standing for his council. He just did a post condemning these nobends, but added a "but..." about hate speech laws. I found the unfriend button.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Sun May 09, 2021 3:55 pm
by JQH
nezumi wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 9:34 pm
Little waster wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 9:25 pm
Well the important thing is Labour is finally getting in touch with its former working class voters from the North of England by ... [checks notes] ... sacking one of its most prominent working class Northern members.
But look look Kier Starmer is wearing a Union Jack underpants I imagine the whippet-f.ckers will come flocking back to Labour any day now!
They haven't half f.cked up good and proper. Labour's given up on being left wing altogether.
I don't know if anyone's already posted this one:
https://labourlist.org/2021/05/labour-m ... n-results/
In a piece for Policy Exchange, the MP and senior fellow at the right-wing think tank has described the loss of Hartlepool in a devastating by-election defeat on Thursday as “yet another wake-up call for my party”
It's the sixth time I've read that and I'm still not certain I've parsed it correctly.
He lost me at “London-based bourgeoisie”
Beginning to think I should have voted Londependance. I might next time.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Mon May 10, 2021 7:39 am
by Woodchopper
On Labour Party demographics, using data form
here:
75.9 per cent live in what are defined as middle or upper class households (income earner is in an ABC1 occupation - managerial, professional, administrative, supervisory or clerical) and 56.3 per cent are graduates.
These are objective class assessments and don't necessarily accord with someone's self identity (eg a friend is a teacher and would be included in the above, but I expect she thinks of herself as working class).
In the general population
53.1 per cent live in middle class households and
33.9 per cent are graduates.
In comparison the Conservative Party members are 83.1 per cent middle or upper class, but 37.9 per cent are graduates. (If you're wondering about the disparity, I assume a lot of it is due to current and retired businesspeople).
Both parties are much more upper or middle class then the general population, and Labour Party members are much more likely to have been to university.
And as an aside, if we're going to continue the class analysis, in the UK as a whole a further 20.94 per cent work in skilled manual occupations (grade C2 eg electrician, driver). Since the 80s large numbers have been inclined to vote Tory (especially those who are self-employed). And a further 26.05 per cent are retirees, unemployed or work in low skilled or casual work.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Mon May 10, 2021 9:17 am
by TopBadger
f.ck demographics... the next time a left leaning government is in power with a majority the best thing they could do is to remind themselves that Conservatives are elected some 3 out of every 4 cycles (i.e. most of the time) because of FPTP and replace it with PR.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Mon May 10, 2021 9:25 am
by headshot
Enjoy this video of a very confused old Hartlepool man blaming Labour for the state of the local hospital after 11 years of Tory cuts.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/sta ... 93985?s=20
Where do you even start?!?
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Mon May 10, 2021 9:40 am
by discovolante
TopBadger wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 9:17 am
f.ck demographics... the next time a left leaning government is in power with a majority the best thing they could do is to remind themselves that Conservatives are elected some 3 out of every 4 cycles (i.e. most of the time) because of FPTP and replace it with PR.
It isn't going to stop them arguing that a less than 50% vote share doesn't amount to a mandate when it suits them though
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Mon May 10, 2021 9:45 am
by Woodchopper
By not assuming that people are complete fools.
Hartlepool has had a Labour MP since the 70s (when the constituency was created) and the council was run by Labour from 2010 to 2019, and alternated between Labour and NOC before that. Its never been run be another party.
He might be fed up with those and still be aware that there hasn't been a Labour administration in Westminster. That said he might not be aware of which bits of of government are run from which level.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Mon May 10, 2021 9:47 am
by Woodchopper
TopBadger wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 9:17 am
f.ck demographics... the next time a left leaning government is in power with a majority the best thing they could do is to remind themselves that Conservatives are elected some 3 out of every 4 cycles (i.e. most of the time) because of FPTP and replace it with PR.
As far as I remember Labour tended to benefit from FTPT in the 90s and 2000s. Which was why it didn't happen when Labour had the chance.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Mon May 10, 2021 10:13 am
by plodder
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 9:47 am
TopBadger wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 9:17 am
f.ck demographics... the next time a left leaning government is in power with a majority the best thing they could do is to remind themselves that Conservatives are elected some 3 out of every 4 cycles (i.e. most of the time) because of FPTP and replace it with PR.
As far as I remember Labour tended to benefit from FTPT in the 90s and 2000s. Which was why it didn't happen when Labour had the chance.
Exactly this, and Labour were winning landslides, too.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Mon May 10, 2021 10:20 am
by Woodchopper
plodder wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 10:13 am
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 9:47 am
TopBadger wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 9:17 am
f.ck demographics... the next time a left leaning government is in power with a majority the best thing they could do is to remind themselves that Conservatives are elected some 3 out of every 4 cycles (i.e. most of the time) because of FPTP and replace it with PR.
As far as I remember Labour tended to benefit from FTPT in the 90s and 2000s. Which was why it didn't happen when Labour had the chance.
Exactly this, and Labour were winning landslides, too.
No time to look into it. But I wonder how much of political fortunes over the decades have been due to demographics + electoral system, and all the narratives about Blair or Cameron's appeal to the electorate are exaggerated.
Re: ELECTION TIME!!!
Posted: Mon May 10, 2021 10:25 am
by plodder
The context of the electoral system is critical, small % swings in popularity can result in large % swings in parliament.
But party leaders (and members, and commentators) need to recognise this and think strategically.
