Scrutable

Apparently the Hartlepool count will begin right after the polls close, with the result perhaps between 4am and 6am: https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... t-20536761

The results for other elections to dribble in over the next few days: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ct-results

Fishnut wrote: ↑

Thu May 06, 2021 7:08 pm

I ended up voting in the PCC election. I felt grubby doing so, but I realised that a spoilt ballot wouldn't make any difference - someone will get elected so I might as well try and get it to be someone I like. Not that it will be because like others here I've never voted for someone who's won.

I compromised for the PCC. Put 2 crosses for 1st & 2nd choice clear enough they'll probably still count it, and then wrote 'no politics in policing' across the top of it. Cos I don't agree with that. First time I've ever (kind of) spoilt a ballot.

In other news eldest might have voted for Count Binface.

Voted Khan for Mayor and Duvall (Labour) for Lewisham & Greenwich Constituency but for the party vote I opted for Rejoin EU. I did consider Londependance

Brightonian wrote: ↑

Thu May 06, 2021 9:30 pm

Apparently the Hartlepool count will begin right after the polls close, with the result perhaps between 4am and 6am: https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... t-20536761

The results for other elections to dribble in over the next few days: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ct-results

Seems counting is being done overnight by some councils - see the excellent @BritainElects Twitter feed. A lot of large swings, mostly to the Conservatives, but in many cases there's no UKIP so it's a bit difficult to disentangle.

Edited to add: Mostly the swings are away from Labour (judging by my quick scan-through of @BritainElects), though it depends when the previous elections were. (But if local elections are mostly every four years, then the swings should be compared with 2017 when Labour were doing somewhat better IIRC.)

The New Statesman are keeping a good running count: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/e ... -ward-ward

Yes, seems to be a good night for the conservatives. Reflects their recent national poll leads.

Was striking to see the big swings away from Labour in Sunderland.

Hartlepool preliminary result

Con: 51.9% (+23.0)
Lab: 28.7% (-9.0)
Ind: 9.7% (+7.5)
RefUK: 1.2% (-24.6)
Grn: 1.2% (+1.2)
LDem: 1.2% (-3.0)
Oth: 6.1% (+4.9)

Con GAIN from Lab.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 59584?s=21

The North turns blue.

ETA: Hitherto Labour held the seat at every election since the seat was created in 1974.

In terms of declining Labour support in the North of England it seems like 2019 was part of a long term trend rather than an exceptional result due to Brexit.

Pure speculation but it kinda seems like the political home for many voters went

Labour -> UKIP -> Conservatives.

The effect of this was masked for many years because the UKIP voters split the anti-Labour vote and Labour kept winning elections in places like Hartlepool. Now that the kippers have moved their support to the Tories, Labour is in trouble.

I've noticed the Greens did well here and there.

Brightonian wrote: ↑

Fri May 07, 2021 7:06 am

I've noticed the Greens did well here and there.

Reddish South goes Green(ish)!

Conservatives now control Northumberland county council. For the first time ever.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Fri May 07, 2021 6:42 am

Pure speculation but it kinda seems like the political home for many voters went

Labour -> UKIP -> Conservatives.

The effect of this was masked for many years because the UKIP voters split the anti-Labour vote and Labour kept winning elections in places like Hartlepool. Now that the kippers have moved their support to the Tories, Labour is in trouble.

And it also went Conservative -> Remain -> No Fixed Abode. Quite often it's back to Conservative.

The northern vote is clearly settling on right wing popularism for the long term. The old class assumption of a Labour vote is gone for ever. It's miserable to say it, but flag waving, mild racism, English exceptionalism and blaming others is going to dominate UK politics for the next 30 years.

But I'm still baffled why Johnson, in his Boris persona, doesn't play popularism to the full. Just imagine if he'd given our NHS heroes a bumper pay rise and nurses were chanting their love for Boris.

From Twitter:

Eleven members of the 1997 cabinet held seats which are no longer held by Labour - including Blair, Brown, Mandelson, Cook, Mowlam, Darling and Robertson. They were all super safe seats then.

We have to wait until Saturday for the results takes all the drama and excitement out of it.

Anyway. Pretty depressing results so far eh. I'm sure Labour will gain some ground by the next GE though, when the Covid inquiry shows up Johnson.

There's several temporary boosts for the Conservatives:

1) Vaccines. The opposition left a blank space for Johnson to write his own narrative. Many helped him along with it'll-be-so-hard-they'll-never-do-it moaning.

2) Direct govt payments. People on furlough and their families see their support money as coming from the govt, so instinctively thank the govt.

3) Beating the EU to reopening/normality. We won, they lost. Stupid foreigners.

This is definitely the perfect moment to have elections. But it's the icing on the long term cake.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri May 07, 2021 8:26 am

There's several temporary boosts for the Conservatives:

1) Vaccines. The opposition left a blank space for Johnson to write his own narrative. Many helped him along with it'll-be-so-hard-they'll-never-do-it moaning.

2) Direct govt payments. People on furlough and their families see their support money as coming from the govt, so instinctively thank the govt.

3) Beating the EU to reopening/normality. We won, they lost. Stupid foreigners.

This is definitely the perfect moment to have elections. But it's the icing on the long term cake.

Johnson also delivered Brexit without catastrophes that have directly affected the vast majority of voters. In contrast to the it'll-be-so-hard-they'll-never-do-it moaning.

Hello from north o' wall. Not entirely sure when we get the results of our elections but the count didn't start until 9am this morning. The wee islands will probably declare first as there's about 9 votes to count and i think there were a lot more postal votes than usual.

I got a free pencil

Ladysavage wrote: ↑

Fri May 07, 2021 9:35 am

Hello from north o' wall. Not entirely sure when we get the results of our elections but the count didn't start until 9am this morning. The wee islands will probably declare first as there's about 9 votes to count and i think there were a lot more postal votes than usual.

I got a free pencil

I'm guessing late on tomorrow? My constituency is today though. Our longish standing Labour MSP retired so not sure what'll happen.

Fishnut wrote: ↑

Thu May 06, 2021 9:19 pm

<lots of good stuff>

TL:DR: I don't think the position should exist. If it has to exist I don't think it should be an elected position. And if it has to be an elected position the bar to entry and the support given to candidates has to be signficantly increased so we can at least have a chance of an informed electorate.

*exactly* this. Thank you for writing what I was going to

Ladysavage wrote: ↑

Fri May 07, 2021 9:35 am

I got a free pencil

Me, too

More voting in pandemics, please

Phew! Thank goodness Labour got rid of that unelectablebeardy chap and replaced him with a nice sensible middle-of-the-road guy with a perfect Tony-Blair-impression voice. Evidently the whingers who spent years undermining the party were right, and the problems Labour experienced were entirely down to leadership and excessive leftiness. Glad they've got that sorted and charged triumphantly to victory.

And yes, politicising law enforcement is a backward move.

Does anywhere sensible do it? I can only think of the USA, and obviously their law enforcement is fubar.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Fri May 07, 2021 9:47 am

Phew! Thank goodness Labour got rid of that unelectablebeardy chap and replaced him with a nice sensible middle-of-the-road guy with a perfect Tony-Blair-impression voice. Evidently the whingers who spent years undermining the party were right, and the problems Labour experienced were entirely down to leadership and excessive leftiness. Glad they've got that sorted and charged triumphantly to victory.

The next general election is fundamentally going to be Charlatan vs Man of Integrity.

We all know Charlatan is going to win in England, but the answer isn't to go back to the untrustworthy, petty, self-serving beardy chap or anyone else like him.

Now is the time to double down on straightforwardness, commonsense and a simple central message of traditional economic recovery. We've got to keep faith that England will return to basic decency.

Tories take overwhelming control of Dudley MBC. Eeesh.

Mind you, there were several UKIP councillors a few years ago.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri May 07, 2021 10:11 am

The next general election is fundamentally going to be Charlatan vs Man of Integrity.

We all know Charlatan is going to win in England, but the answer isn't to go back to the untrustworthy, petty, self-serving beardy chap or anyone else like him.

Now is the time to double down on straightforwardness, commonsense and a simple central message of traditional economic recovery. We've got to keep faith that England will return to basic decency.

It's depressing but I think you might be correct about another win for PM Dick.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri May 07, 2021 10:11 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Fri May 07, 2021 9:47 am

Phew! Thank goodness Labour got rid of that unelectablebeardy chap and replaced him with a nice sensible middle-of-the-road guy with a perfect Tony-Blair-impression voice. Evidently the whingers who spent years undermining the party were right, and the problems Labour experienced were entirely down to leadership and excessive leftiness. Glad they've got that sorted and charged triumphantly to victory.

The next general election is fundamentally going to be Charlatan vs Man of Integrity.

We all know Charlatan is going to win in England, but the answer isn't to go back to the untrustworthy, petty, self-serving beardy chap or anyone else like him.

Now is the time to double down on straightforwardness, commonsense and a simple central message of traditional economic recovery. We've got to keep faith that England will return to basic decency.

Yes, definitely. The problems facing Labour are way bigger than just the leadership.

Why has the Labour party, and the labour movement more generally, lost relevance for so many working people despite growing inequality, the loss of a social safety net and worsening work conditions? It seems that just as reality is confirming that the left are correct about everything, they're unable to deliver their message in a way ordinary people can grasp.

I'm not convinced about relying on "basic decency", though - I'd be surprised if it were ever really the case that decency was an important factor in English elections. But the left really ought to appeal to people's basic self-interest and their desires for their community, at least better than some grubby toff kleptocunts.

I think basic decency is a good English value to go for.

Most voters wouldn't want a chaotic and corrupt showman if he didn't deliver. They'd pick a boring manager instead.

At the moment there is the imaginary Boris who voters think is delivering. The tip over the table mentality is still strong, because the status quo table wasn't speaking to those with precarious employment. People genuinely think they'll come out better from chaos, plus delight in the Trumpish "stick it to the elites" fantasy.

Levelling up is hard and Johnson is lazy. I think we can be fairly confident he will fail to deliver to Hartlepool and the rest. Even Blair failed. Which is why I'm so scared Johnson will choose the other option - the much easier one - of simple popularism. The winning story for Johnson in 2024 is: Why are you voting Conservative? Because Boris gave the nurses a pay rise. That's more plausible than a story of: Why are you voting Conservative? Because Boris created secure well-paying jobs across the north.