I think Delta is about twice as contagious but I haven't seen data suggesting it's more dangerous to the individual who catches it.Herainestold wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:30 amI think the IFR for Delta is much higher, probably twice as high, but I couldnt find good figures.I don't know how long infection acquired immunity lasts from Delta, but we know that people can be re infected multiple times. Every time there is the risk of organ damage and Long Covid.sheldrake wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 1:32 amThe IFR for unvaccinated people who catch it the first time is order of 0.25-0.75% (less than your lifetime risk of dying from lots of other common, preventable causes). This then drops significantly after you've survived it once, unlike flu but similar to measles.Herainestold wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:45 pm
We will see lockdowns every winter, as the virus mutates and we have to protect the NHS.
Given the low mutation rate, don't you expect increasing numbers of people in the population to acquire long-lasting immunity from surviving the disease even if vaccine protection doesn't last so long?
Reinfection multiple times by Covid is *extremely* rare, and second infections are much less dangerous.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 9/june2021
The Israeli data so far suggests that people who had already survived Covid were much better protected than those who had been double-jabbed with Pfizer (by a factor of around 15-20 iirc)
This is because it's mutation rate is much lower than a disease like flu and the kind of immunity you acquire by surviving infection is more akin to the kind of immunity those of us who had measles or chicken pox acquired
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33064680/