Shortages in shops

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JQH
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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by JQH » Fri Aug 27, 2021 4:07 pm

plodder wrote:
Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:24 pm
It'll create a nice helpful siege mentality. The press are resolutely ignoring the issue.
Probably just as well. When they cover it, the panic buying will start.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Little waster » Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:23 pm

Well I've had the official verdict on "The Shortages" from LW's local.

It can't because of Brexit because:-

A) James O'Brien said it is.
B) Nick Ferrari has shown lorry drivers now need to know how to use first aid kits.
C) There weren't any shortages in the 50s when the school kids would spend their half terms and summer holidays picking potatoes.
D) Lazy teenagers are insisting on going to University to learn mickey mouse topics like Medicine and Engineering when they could be working in abattoirs.
E) Teachers no longer teach Home Economics because ... Love Island, apparently.
F) Diane Abbot aka "Corbyn's Darkie mate" once fluffed some numbers on the radio.
G) Black people in general. Details TBC.
H) Remain voters lost the vote and just need to move on.
I) Sadiq Khan aka "That Darkie in London" needs three cars to walk his dog.

So it is reassuring that as the facts change peoples opinions change and any suggestion Leave voters weren't sure what they were voting for and are actually a bunch of half-wit racists is just a terrible slur.

Nor is it fair to suggest Leave voters just mindlessly regurgitate any old nonsense they read in the same sad handful of right-wing rags no matter how irrelevant.
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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Tessa K » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:45 am

Little waster wrote:
Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:23 pm
Well I've had the official verdict on "The Shortages" from LW's local.

It can't because of Brexit because:-

A) James O'Brien said it is.
B) Nick Ferrari has shown lorry drivers now need to know how to use first aid kits.
C) There weren't any shortages in the 50s when the school kids would spend their half terms and summer holidays picking potatoes.
D) Lazy teenagers are insisting on going to University to learn mickey mouse topics like Medicine and Engineering when they could be working in abattoirs.
E) Teachers no longer teach Home Economics because ... Love Island, apparently.
F) Diane Abbot aka "Corbyn's Darkie mate" once fluffed some numbers on the radio.
G) Black people in general. Details TBC.
H) Remain voters lost the vote and just need to move on.
I) Sadiq Khan aka "That Darkie in London" needs three cars to walk his dog.

So it is reassuring that as the facts change peoples opinions change and any suggestion Leave voters weren't sure what they were voting for and are actually a bunch of half-wit racists is just a terrible slur.

Nor is it fair to suggest Leave voters just mindlessly regurgitate any old nonsense they read in the same sad handful of right-wing rags no matter how irrelevant.
Businesses have been told to prioritise hiring UK-based workers rather than relying on labour from abroad to fix a shortage of lorry drivers.

Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng rejected calls from firms to loosen immigration rules, saying it would be a "short-term temporary solution".

Companies should look to those facing an "uncertain future" when the furlough scheme ends next month, he said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58364308

This assumes that UK citizens were historically rejected in favour of foreign workers and that there is a big pool of potential drivers champing at the bit to get into HGVs.

The question is, were foreign drivers hired because they were cheaper or because the pool of UK drivers wasn't big enough to fill the need? The same question applies to other areas like construction, hospitality, retail and care homes. It's a long-standing right-wing myth that Brits are slighted in the job market in favour of immigrants.

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:07 am

Tessa K wrote:
Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:45 am
Little waster wrote:
Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:23 pm
Well I've had the official verdict on "The Shortages" from LW's local.

It can't because of Brexit because:-

A) James O'Brien said it is.
B) Nick Ferrari has shown lorry drivers now need to know how to use first aid kits.
C) There weren't any shortages in the 50s when the school kids would spend their half terms and summer holidays picking potatoes.
D) Lazy teenagers are insisting on going to University to learn mickey mouse topics like Medicine and Engineering when they could be working in abattoirs.
E) Teachers no longer teach Home Economics because ... Love Island, apparently.
F) Diane Abbot aka "Corbyn's Darkie mate" once fluffed some numbers on the radio.
G) Black people in general. Details TBC.
H) Remain voters lost the vote and just need to move on.
I) Sadiq Khan aka "That Darkie in London" needs three cars to walk his dog.

So it is reassuring that as the facts change peoples opinions change and any suggestion Leave voters weren't sure what they were voting for and are actually a bunch of half-wit racists is just a terrible slur.

Nor is it fair to suggest Leave voters just mindlessly regurgitate any old nonsense they read in the same sad handful of right-wing rags no matter how irrelevant.
Businesses have been told to prioritise hiring UK-based workers rather than relying on labour from abroad to fix a shortage of lorry drivers.

Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng rejected calls from firms to loosen immigration rules, saying it would be a "short-term temporary solution".

Companies should look to those facing an "uncertain future" when the furlough scheme ends next month, he said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58364308

This assumes that UK citizens were historically rejected in favour of foreign workers and that there is a big pool of potential drivers champing at the bit to get into HGVs.

The question is, were foreign drivers hired because they were cheaper or because the pool of UK drivers wasn't big enough to fill the need? The same question applies to other areas like construction, hospitality, retail and care homes. It's a long-standing right-wing myth that Brits are slighted in the job market in favour of immigrants.
That's in the short run.

The link posted above suggested that driving a lorry is a minimum wage job with poor working conditions and unsocial hours. In the longer term companies could increase the pool of British drivers by offering more money and improving the conditions. That'll take time though and presumably the government is willing to see some supply problems during the time it might take to persuade more British people to train and become drivers.

That strategy could help the situation in specific companies or industries. However, it appears that the current supply problems are due to labour shortages throughout the system (eg in production as well as transport). The big question is whether the UK has enough potential workers to fill all the roles that people have become used to. Its easy to cite the statistics for people who aren't working, but many of those people are unable to start working as drivers, on farms or in abattoirs etc. For example people have family responsibilities and health problems which may rule out working in some jobs.

One outcome could be that labour shortages just shift from one sector to another. That'll be good for workers who see companies bidding for their labour. Though consumers will face higher prices and shortages of some goods and services.

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Tessa K » Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:33 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:07 am

That's in the short run.

The link posted above suggested that driving a lorry is a minimum wage job with poor working conditions and unsocial hours. In the longer term companies could increase the pool of British drivers by offering more money and improving the conditions. That'll take time though and presumably the government is willing to see some supply problems during the time it might take to persuade more British people to train and become drivers.

That strategy could help the situation in specific companies or industries. However, it appears that the current supply problems are due to labour shortages throughout the system (eg in production as well as transport). The big question is whether the UK has enough potential workers to fill all the roles that people have become used to. Its easy to cite the statistics for people who aren't working, but many of those people are unable to start working as drivers, on farms or in abattoirs etc. For example people have family responsibilities and health problems which may rule out working in some jobs.

One outcome could be that labour shortages just shift from one sector to another. That'll be good for workers who see companies bidding for their labour. Though consumers will face higher prices and shortages of some goods and services.
It's a bit like after the Black Death when labour shortages pushed up wages. Only without the racism.

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:37 pm

A lorry driver tweets:
I arrived to work today to discover a £7 per hour pay rise. A 40% increase... almost overnight.

There are no drivers, things are about to get a bit tasty.

Completely unsustainable, of course, so guess what happens to prices next?

All your sh.t comes by lorry. All of it.
Of course, that price increase won't immediately create new drivers. It might persuade the existing qualified ones to work every hour they're legally allowed to (a slightly higher number now), or persuade a few EU drivers who haven't already left to stick around in racist plague island a little longer.

But will it persuade unemployed Brits to fork out £3k for an HGV licence?

Logistics companies are now offering a £56k salary, up from a historic average of about £33k.

That's more than many post-doc and lecturer positions (and the cost of a licence is nothing compared to the £27k I owe Student Loans from my undergrad, which was before they tripled fees). So I clearly I've messed up massively by not following in my father's footsteps and driving HGVs.

Not sure I fancy it, though, somehow.
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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by nekomatic » Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:13 am

I read there are lots of HGV licence holders who gave up driving because the conditions were too horrendous, so maybe it’ll tempt some of them back.

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:08 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 10:37 pm
A lorry driver tweets:
I arrived to work today to discover a £7 per hour pay rise. A 40% increase... almost overnight.

There are no drivers, things are about to get a bit tasty.

Completely unsustainable, of course, so guess what happens to prices next?

All your sh.t comes by lorry. All of it.
Of course, that price increase won't immediately create new drivers. It might persuade the existing qualified ones to work every hour they're legally allowed to (a slightly higher number now), or persuade a few EU drivers who haven't already left to stick around in racist plague island a little longer.

But will it persuade unemployed Brits to fork out £3k for an HGV licence?

Logistics companies are now offering a £56k salary, up from a historic average of about £33k.
People currently employed elsewhere may well be able to finance getting a license. They'll do that in order to get a higher income. Companies will also be able to sponsor people who want to retrain.

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by lpm » Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:41 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:08 am
People currently employed elsewhere may well be able to finance getting a license. They'll do that in order to get a higher income. Companies will also be able to sponsor people who want to retrain.
What do we want currently employed people to switch from? As I said on another thread:
lpm wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:01 pm
You have to get people to stop doing A or B and train them up in doing C instead. Eventually you get more C, nurses say, or lorry drivers, or installers of EV chargers, or vaccine makers. But you get less A and B.
We're getting into a real resource crunch, with a range of essential projects needing people. For a couple of decades we've had casualised workers - zero hours, part time working, sub minimum wage "self employed" like Amazon delivery drivers, humans replacing machines for basic tasks like pouring coffee and washing cars.

The post Covid world needs to see a reversal of the direction of travel - back to long term, highly paid, highly trained jobs that need people to work 9-5. With pay and benefits to match. But do people in the casualised sectors actually want these types of jobs?
What ever happened to that Trump guy, you know, the one who was president for a bit?

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:46 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:41 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:08 am
People currently employed elsewhere may well be able to finance getting a license. They'll do that in order to get a higher income. Companies will also be able to sponsor people who want to retrain.
What do we want currently employed people to switch from? As I said on another thread:
lpm wrote:
Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:01 pm
You have to get people to stop doing A or B and train them up in doing C instead. Eventually you get more C, nurses say, or lorry drivers, or installers of EV chargers, or vaccine makers. But you get less A and B.
We're getting into a real resource crunch, with a range of essential projects needing people. For a couple of decades we've had casualised workers - zero hours, part time working, sub minimum wage "self employed" like Amazon delivery drivers, humans replacing machines for basic tasks like pouring coffee and washing cars.
Yes, I agree and made a similar point earlier in the thread.
lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:41 am
The post Covid world needs to see a reversal of the direction of travel - back to long term, highly paid, highly trained jobs that need people to work 9-5. With pay and benefits to match. But do people in the casualised sectors actually want these types of jobs?
That's a good question. The thing about highly trained jobs is at the moment they usually involve getting tertiary education and the student ends up with serious debts. Its a reasonable choice for some people to want to avoid the debt and not get the qualifications.

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by lpm » Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:02 am

It's intriguing the way we're combining delivery shortages with a boom of deliveries.

There must be more people working in delivery services than ever before. There's this article on the surge in takeaway deliveries - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57489195 - and we know all about the Amazon/Yodel delivery world of contractors doing the last mile for parcels. Plus Tesco vans and the like.

Maybe the 19th C model of shops having delivery boys - the butcher's boy, the baker's boy - meant more delivery workers than today. Odd we're basically replicating it.

It doesn't feel sustainable. Some of it is casual student labour riding deliveroo bikes and pizza scooters, they'll never switch to lorry driving. But it must be tempting for an Amazon driver, carrying the burden of van costs and getting pennies per parcel, to pack it in and get a long term job. Probably fewer driving hours as well in an HGV. But we'll still expect "free" Amazon deliveries.
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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Boustrophedon » Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:28 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:02 am


It doesn't feel sustainable. Some of it is casual student labour riding deliveroo bikes and pizza scooters, they'll never switch to lorry driving. But it must be tempting for an Amazon driver, carrying the burden of van costs and getting pennies per parcel, to pack it in and get a long term job. Probably fewer driving hours as well in an HGV. But we'll still expect "free" Amazon deliveries.
It isn't sustainable in ecological terms, it never was. If only we still had and expanded upon, the network of little branch lines carrying goods and people that were axed under Beeching, to be replaced by all of us being persuaded that buying a car was the only way to get around.

A business model like Ocado with one van delivering on "The last mile" replacing ten car journeys makes more sense, both ecologically and economically: Small warehouse replace expansive supermarkets with acres of car park.

Electric vans are needed, millions of them.

There is still the distribution to hub problem; getting the goods to local warehouses/supermarkets, from their place of manufacture/importation, without all those little branch lines and shunting yards we are for now reliant on HGVs and their drivers.

We need to pay more for deliveries and offset that against not having to buy a car. We can't have free deliveries and keep our cars.
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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by tom p » Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:56 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:41 am
The post Covid world needs to see a reversal of the direction of travel - back to long term, highly paid, highly trained jobs that need people to work 9-5. With pay and benefits to match. But do people in the casualised sectors actually want these types of jobs?
Is this question a joke or something?
People with sh.t pay and condition have historically always wanted better pay and conditions. There's always a fraction happy to potter about doing casual things, and there has always been a gig economy for them. It's just that millions of others were forced into having the worst parts of it (the insecurity) without the freedom and flexibility.

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by lpm » Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:06 pm

People can become trapped in a way of life. Normal is what we're used to.
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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by JQH » Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:37 pm

No skimmed or semi-skimmed milk in Sainsbury's earlier and not much full fat.

I resumed buying a couple of extra items each time I go shopping a while back. Christmas dinner may be rice and peas but at least we'll eat something.
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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by plodder » Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:46 pm

Boustrophedon wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:28 am
lpm wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:02 am


It doesn't feel sustainable. Some of it is casual student labour riding deliveroo bikes and pizza scooters, they'll never switch to lorry driving. But it must be tempting for an Amazon driver, carrying the burden of van costs and getting pennies per parcel, to pack it in and get a long term job. Probably fewer driving hours as well in an HGV. But we'll still expect "free" Amazon deliveries.
It isn't sustainable in ecological terms, it never was. If only we still had and expanded upon, the network of little branch lines carrying goods and people that were axed under Beeching, to be replaced by all of us being persuaded that buying a car was the only way to get around.

A business model like Ocado with one van delivering on "The last mile" replacing ten car journeys makes more sense, both ecologically and economically: Small warehouse replace expansive supermarkets with acres of car park.

Electric vans are needed, millions of them.

There is still the distribution to hub problem; getting the goods to local warehouses/supermarkets, from their place of manufacture/importation, without all those little branch lines and shunting yards we are for now reliant on HGVs and their drivers.

We need to pay more for deliveries and offset that against not having to buy a car. We can't have free deliveries and keep our cars.

Amazon are looking to expand drone deliveries. Presumably they can run on renewable power.

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by veravista » Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:58 pm

Drone deliveries? Or tricky, fast moving targets for people with shotguns? Happened in N. Carolina when they did a trial apparently..

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Tessa K » Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:07 pm

Still no shortage of essentials ie chocolate and biscuits.

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by dyqik » Tue Aug 31, 2021 4:31 pm

Tessa K wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:07 pm
Still no shortage of essentials ie chocolate and biscuits.
What about cake and brioche?

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Tessa K » Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:41 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 4:31 pm
Tessa K wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:07 pm
Still no shortage of essentials ie chocolate and biscuits.
What about cake and brioche?
Brioche is so over-rated

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Martin_B » Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:06 am

Boustrophedon wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:28 am
Electric vans are needed, millions of them.
Not sure if there were 'miilions' of them, but we used to see electric vans doing daily milk deliveries. They seemed to be phased out for some reason ...
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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Tessa K » Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:27 am

Martin_B wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:06 am
Boustrophedon wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:28 am
Electric vans are needed, millions of them.
Not sure if there were 'miilions' of them, but we used to see electric vans doing daily milk deliveries. They seemed to be phased out for some reason ...
You've reminded me of the clink and rattle of the bottles as they drove along. We called them milk floats rather than vans.

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by tom p » Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:51 am

Martin_B wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:06 am
Boustrophedon wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:28 am
Electric vans are needed, millions of them.
Not sure if there were 'miilions' of them, but we used to see electric vans doing daily milk deliveries. They seemed to be phased out for some reason ...
It's 'cos they were too well-made.
The company who made them went bust 'cos they quickly saturated the market with vehicles that didn't need replacing for decades, then when they eventually needed repairs, it became too expensive.
I expect the reduced number of people getting milk from the milkman rather than the supermarket meant deliveries were more spaced apart, making a very slow vehicle less useful, so it was more economical to get a cheap transit when they finally broke down.

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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Grumble » Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:59 am

tom p wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:51 am
Martin_B wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:06 am
Boustrophedon wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:28 am
Electric vans are needed, millions of them.
Not sure if there were 'miilions' of them, but we used to see electric vans doing daily milk deliveries. They seemed to be phased out for some reason ...
It's 'cos they were too well-made.
The company who made them went bust 'cos they quickly saturated the market with vehicles that didn't need replacing for decades, then when they eventually needed repairs, it became too expensive.
I expect the reduced number of people getting milk from the milkman rather than the supermarket meant deliveries were more spaced apart, making a very slow vehicle less useful, so it was more economical to get a cheap transit when they finally broke down.
I still hear a milk float (electrogalactamobile) going round at night, but they’re definitely rare. Now we have electric Transits being made hopefully we’ll have quiet vans as a rule not the exception.

I’ve seen a couple of Maxus Edeliver vans in the wild, although one was stickered up as a demo van.
https://saicmaxus.co.uk/maxus-events/ha ... deliver-3/
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Re: Shortages in shops

Post by Martin_B » Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:28 am

tom p wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:51 am
Martin_B wrote:
Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:06 am
Boustrophedon wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:28 am
Electric vans are needed, millions of them.
Not sure if there were 'miilions' of them, but we used to see electric vans doing daily milk deliveries. They seemed to be phased out for some reason ...
It's 'cos they were too well-made.
The company who made them went bust 'cos they quickly saturated the market with vehicles that didn't need replacing for decades, then when they eventually needed repairs, it became too expensive.
I expect the reduced number of people getting milk from the milkman rather than the supermarket meant deliveries were more spaced apart, making a very slow vehicle less useful, so it was more economical to get a cheap transit when they finally broke down.
According to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milk_float there were certainly more than one company who made milk floats. Although the industry did seem to be as busy buying each other as actually making vehicles.

The Wiki page also says that Britain had more BEVs than all other countries in the world combined - almost all of them milk floats (I'm assuming that they didn't count other battery vehicles such as fork-lift trucks!) Milk floats seem to be an almost uniquely British thing.
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