Scrutable

science_fox wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:15 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:05 pm

As long as I don't end up with either Co-op energy or nPower, I'll be happy. Okay, I'll be content. Fine, apathetic. Minimally hostile then, whatever.

For what it's worth, I have no significant complaints about Good Energy (https://www.goodenergy.co.uk/) who I've been with for several years. They aren't the cheapest, but they do help fund new renewable sources.

I’m with Octopus who own and build solar generation. I’m going to try and invest in a wind farm too when the next chance comes. Check out Ripple Energy.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 22, 2021 3:37 pm

headshot wrote: ↑

Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:09 am

IvanV wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:54 pm

Suppliers can object to you taking out a contract with another supplier if you haven't settled their bill. And generally will. So they were completely asleep on the job.

It was Avro Energy. They're being investigated by the ombudsman and have had hundreds of complaints about lack of contact.

If they would actually issue me with a bill, I would pay the balance.

I don't know if you're going to have to pay that £180 any more...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58652083

Well, following my post yesterday, I figured I’d better check the account and realised they had sent my final bill to the wrong land and email address in June.

So, I figured I’d better pay it off. Yesterday. I paid off the £168 I owed them yesterday.

Still, my understanding is the debt doesn’t die with the supplier. It just gets transferred.

On the strength of this, I hope it's Ecotricity next. They're clearly desperate.

Today we launched our latest campaign with the Daily Express, it’s a campaign to save our gas boilers - from the government. And their plan to replace them all with heat pumps.

Our founder, Dale Vince, explains how we can go carbon zero for heating our homes quicker and more cheaply using green gas – made from grass.

“Boris Johnson wants to take away your gas boiler. It’s a bold proposal, designed to tackle the climate crisis - and it would be a big step towards zero carbon as a country, ending the use of fossil gas in our homes. But it makes no sense.

https://www.ecotricity.co.uk/our-news/2 ... ur-boilers

are they saying anaerobic digestion will give us the gas we need? ouch.

plodder wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:02 am

So, we left the EU internal energy market. I never really quite understood what that is, but I am reading that high prices are not an issue in the EU.

I saw this re a 2015 National Grid report warning that leaving the IEM could lead to higher gas prices in the UK: https://twitter.com/mac_puck/status/1439913090728988673

But I've also seen stuff that doesn't refer to Brexit e.g. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... -in-europe

The UK's accelerated coal phase-out along with reduced nuclear availability and low wind generation have exposed the market to rising gas prices.

Power prices have risen strongly across Europe but the UK has come under more intense pressure due to its high dependence on gas and renewables to generate electricity.

Adding to the strain of coal closures has been the UK's ageing and inefficient nuclear power plants.

Since the closure of the Rough gas storage facility, the UK has no large-scale storage sites and only a limited number of smaller storage facilities, leaving the UK potentially exposed to increased supply security risk than its European neighbors.

The UK's domestic gas production has been significantly lower year on year due to a heavy schedule of planned maintenance and delays to new projects.

plodder wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:13 pm

are they saying anaerobic digestion will give us the gas we need? ouch.

Yes. "The world's first green energy company" is campaigning against government subsidies for heat pumps because they are about to open a single plant that "will use 3,000 acres to power 4,000 local homes". (source is the Express).

Given 27 million homes in the UK, that's a mere 20.25 million acres of grass. Out of a total agricultural area of 23.07 acres. Only 87.7% then. (I know there would probably be big economies of scale, but not that big.)

I mean, it would even be more effective to burn that green gas in a power station and use electric heaters.

I can see a place for biofuels in aviation and shipping, which are still technologically difficult to decarbonise and often unavoidable. But powering a decentralised network of domestic heaters? Total (grass-fed) b.llsh.t.

why are capitalists always grifters?

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:25 pm

why are capitalists always grifters?

Because we've taught them that our politicians are gullible rubes who will hand grant money and tax breaks out to all kinds of sh.t with a 'green' label on it.

jdc wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:20 pm

plodder wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:02 am

So, we left the EU internal energy market. I never really quite understood what that is, but I am reading that high prices are not an issue in the EU.

I saw this re a 2015 National Grid report warning that leaving the IEM could lead to higher gas prices in the UK: https://twitter.com/mac_puck/status/1439913090728988673

But I've also seen stuff that doesn't refer to Brexit e.g. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... -in-europe

The UK's accelerated coal phase-out along with reduced nuclear availability and low wind generation have exposed the market to rising gas prices.

Power prices have risen strongly across Europe but the UK has come under more intense pressure due to its high dependence on gas and renewables to generate electricity.

Adding to the strain of coal closures has been the UK's ageing and inefficient nuclear power plants.

Since the closure of the Rough gas storage facility, the UK has no large-scale storage sites and only a limited number of smaller storage facilities, leaving the UK potentially exposed to increased supply security risk than its European neighbors.

The UK's domestic gas production has been significantly lower year on year due to a heavy schedule of planned maintenance and delays to new projects.

one of those classic multi-factor f.ck ups, then, where ordinarily the half-wits in charge get away with it, so they can claim it’s unprecedented.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:24 pm

plodder wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:13 pm

are they saying anaerobic digestion will give us the gas we need? ouch.

Yes. "The world's first green energy company" is campaigning against government subsidies for heat pumps because they are about to open a single plant that "will use 3,000 acres to power 4,000 local homes". (source is the Express).

Given 27 million homes in the UK, that's a mere 20.25 million acres of grass. Out of a total agricultural area of 23.07 acres. Only 87.7% then. (I know there would probably be big economies of scale, but not that big.)

I mean, it would even be more effective to burn that green gas in a power station and use electric heaters.

I can see a place for biofuels in aviation and shipping, which are still technologically difficult to decarbonise and often unavoidable. But powering a decentralised network of domestic heaters? Total (grass-fed) b.llsh.t.

God save us from these tossers.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:25 pm

why are capitalists always grifters?

They weren’t originally, they were genuinely disruptive innovators who usurped the aristocratic grifters. It’s hard to escape the notion that we’re now in late-period capitalism and the next generation of usurpers will be Something Else. Not sure what - there are viable contenders from the crypto lot, or some emerging tech (whoever cracks AI first will be unstoppable) or maybe hordes of climate cannibals will take over, or some nationalist / religious nutters from an emerging superpower. I’m not sure business as usual feels sustainable over the next 30 years or so, I’m sniffing decline in the air.

jdc wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:20 pm

The UK's accelerated coal phase-out along with reduced nuclear availability and low wind generation have exposed the market to rising gas prices.

Could do with a bit of an explainer here - wind was the second largest form of generation in the UK last year, and the UK is the sixth largest wind generating country in the world, behind the US, China, India, Spain and Germany. For European comparisons, the latter two have been pretty good for a long time - the UK's capacity growth of 269% in the last ten year is the largest of any European country with more than 10GW of generation, and considering the UK is considered one of the best locations for wind power in the world, there's clearly more room to grow.

Is this just a relative thing, in that the capacity growth, good as it is, has been unable to cover the reduction in coal power?

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:41 am

jdc wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:20 pm

The UK's accelerated coal phase-out along with reduced nuclear availability and low wind generation have exposed the market to rising gas prices.

Could do with a bit of an explainer here - wind was the second largest form of generation in the UK last year, and the UK is the sixth largest wind generating country in the world, behind the US, China, India, Spain and Germany. For European comparisons, the latter two have been pretty good for a long time - the UK's capacity growth of 269% in the last ten year is the largest of any European country with more than 10GW of generation, and considering the UK is considered one of the best locations for wind power in the world, there's clearly more room to grow.

Is this just a relative thing, in that the capacity growth, good as it is, has been unable to cover the reduction in coal power?

There was a bit of discussion on the fossil fuel thread. Apparently this year has genuinely been less windy:

Grumble wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:11 pm

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:52 pm

Looks like we may be burning Coal more than had been planned this winter.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-58570893

This year has been pretty sh.t for wind power. I thought we were bound to keep increasing our wind output year on year. I didn’t realise, though maybe it’s obvious in hindsight, that you could have whole years with low wind speeds.

Huh. Didn't expect that would be the answer, but fair enough.

Here’s an article about recent energy prices: https://www.lcp.uk.com/our-viewpoint/20 ... er-market/

Including this graph of wind load factors:

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:24 am

Huh. Didn't expect that would be the answer, but fair enough.

Low wind is only part of the answer. As the article Grumble cites points out, demand is currently 10GW below winter peaks. We ought to be able to cope with not much wind pretty easily when we are still so far below peak winter demand. After all, 10GW is a less than wind provides most of the time. Not much wind is a relatively common occurrence, including in September, even if it has been a bit more prolonged than usual this year.

It is a combination of circumstances. Bit I would say the real biggest issue is that 17GW of capacity is currently out of commission for planned outages, to be ready for winter. That looks like a bit of an accidental pile-up, which everything else has piled on top of.

here's an explainer, including some comparative EU prices

https://atlanticsentinel.com/2021/09/eu ... explained/

France’s European affairs minister, Clement Beaune, said the European Union could look to leverage its electricity supplies to the U.K. in an effort to force Boris Johnson’s government to grant access to British fishing waters.

Beaune said that the EU will take action in the next few days to increase the pressure on the U.K., which is a net importer of power from France. Any interruption to those flows would threaten a British grid that is already under pressure.

[…]

The issue of post-Brexit fishing rights emerged again as a flashpoint in the difficult relationship between London and Paris last week when the U.K. granted just a fraction of the licenses which the French authorities had expected. The U.K. said the fishermen had failed to demonstrate they had a history of working in British waters. The French say the British are breaching the Brexit agreement.

The dispute has held up negotiations over granting British finance firms access to the EU market and the two sides even deployed warships to Jersey this year when French boats briefly blockaded the island’s main port. But exploiting the U.K.’s dependency on French power supplies at a moment when surging energy prices are alarming politicians across Europe would constitute a serious escalation.

The U.K. is reliant on two massive power cables that transport electricity from France’s nuclear power stations across the Channel. Any interruption to that supply would squeeze a tight U.K. energy market even further, pushing up prices that have already sent a clutch of firms out of business.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-escalate

Nice energy sector you've got there. It would be terrible if anything were to happen to it. Says Russia.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:56 am

Nice energy sector you've got there. It would be terrible if anything were to happen to it. Says Russia.

I have just met up with my ex-neighbour who is a gas trader, now in Germany. He says that the current high European gas price is a bit of a pile-up of issues. And so the Russians have certainly chosen their moment to divert a higher proportion of their output eastwards to put pressure on Europe to allow Nordstream 2 to open. The pile-up includes:
- Delayed 2020 maintenance of various gas production facilities, due to Covid, meaning that there is currently higher outage of various gas facilities to catch up with the maintenance
- The cold 2020/21 winter, meant that gas storage was thoroughly emptied, and remains unusually empty for the time of year - it should be nearing full for next winter by now
- Shipping delays on LNG from everywhere, long time to make up the loss of movements from the Suez blockage, plus the general shortage of all kinds of shipping capacity
- Increasing demand for gas from Asia in general

Meanwhile, he says that the German grid is far from happy about the potential winter electricity situation there. So far continental Europe has avoided such large electricity price increases as Britain, because they still have a lot more coal stations they can call on. But this means they are running down their coal stocks before the winter when they should be building them up. And there are impediments to increasing the coal supply to higher levels to supply both current and possible future winter demand. There is little spare capacity in European coal mines. There's plenty of coal in international markets, but it takes time to buy it and arrange to ship it from Colombia, Australia or wherever. And then you have to move it to the power stations. The Rhine is very shallow just now, and coal barges can only run half full or they get grounded. There just aren't the coal wagons around any more to increase coal movements by rail back to previous levels. So they are worried they will not have sufficient coal stocks once the cold weather arrives.

I also had a discussion with some local gas experts. They felt that Rough Field closure criticisms are misplaced. It doesn't affect our physical security of supply, as we have plenty of physical capacity, since UK gas demand is now considerably less than what our system was built for. Rough also could not act as a swing producer to have much impact on the local price of gas. The maximum daily withdrawal rate from Rough was never large, it could only ever make a fairly small increase in the daily gas supply. Its value was that it could run flat out for 120 days across the winter.

No and I'm secured from price rises until 23.

Also my energy supplier gets most of its energy from renewable sources.

Mine has gone bust. Also 100% renewable. I think it's the city b.llsh.t behind the scenes that's caught them out, although they were also big on promoting domestic heat pumps.

purplehaze wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 08, 2021 6:21 pm

No and I'm secured from price rises until 23.

Also my energy supplier gets most of its energy from renewable sources.

And how does your supplier supply you of a calm dark evening? Does he burn some renewable energy guarantee of origin certificates (REGOs - price currently about 0.5p per kWh, or about 3% on your electricity bill) in his turbine? Real 100% renewable energy is so expensive no one would buy it. So it's pretty much not sold, and the only way you can get it at the moment is to go off grid, and make it yourself with a very large bank of batteries to keep you going through periods of unhelpful weather. Most easily achieved in places like San Diego with high and reliable insolation and low winter heating requirements. Or perhaps you can buy a Scottish estate with its own hydro source, though only a handful of people can do that.

As Private Eye put it in this week's issue,

Sadly, the claim "100 percent renewable" is only made with tortuous logic (...) and those firms will be hiking their prices along with the others. Don't believe it? Wait and see. (Source, Private Eye 1557 p10)

Well done you for fixing your price to 2023. It looks like a very good bet. But did you check whether the company you made this bet with was good for it? It is only a bet you can collect on if you chose a supplier who will survive to pay it out to the end of your contract with them. Usually this will only be assured if they are adequately hedged, so that they are protected from going bust. Being hedged or heavily financially supported in some equivalent way is really the only thing that will stop your supplier going bust in the present situation, not the trade in REGOs. Because, as Old Sparky in Private Eye realises, these so called renewable energy suppliers are just about as exposed to the price of gas as everyone else. So if they aren't financially protected, they will probably go bust before your contract comes to an end. And probably a supplier of last resort (SOLR) taking over your supply will not have agreed to terms that fully respect current price fixes. In the past they might have done, but currently it's just too expensive to agree too. SOLRs are a deal done with Ofgem, who tries to keep the cost to other energy customers down, and whose main concern is to protect customer credit, not their tariffs.

But you may be lucky. Just because a supplier has promised to supply you 100% or near 100% renewable, on the tortuous logic, doesn't mean they aren't well hedged or supported. Examples of well-hedged companies include the big ones, and medium ones such as Ovo and Octopus. Examples of weakly hedged companies include nearly all the small ones. So your supplier may survive. But it has nothing to do with whether the energy you bought is "renewable". Which it almost certainly isn't by any rigorous understanding of the term.

plodder wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:41 pm

Mine has gone bust. Also 100% renewable. I think it's the city b.llsh.t behind the scenes that's caught them out, although they were also big on promoting domestic heat pumps.

I'm really sorry to hear that. I've had two speculative letters from companies wanting to install heat pumps - 'FREE OF CHARGE'

While my cap price is protected, just been told by email, I cannot control the price of petrol. Two weeks ago the price of a litre was £1.19 and now it's £1.40. That's a shocking increase.

purplehaze wrote: ↑

Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:12 am

plodder wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:41 pm

Mine has gone bust. Also 100% renewable. I think it's the city b.llsh.t behind the scenes that's caught them out, although they were also big on promoting domestic heat pumps.

I'm really sorry to hear that. I've had two speculative letters from companies wanting to install heat pumps - 'FREE OF CHARGE'

While my cap price is protected, just been told by email, I cannot control the price of petrol. Two weeks ago the price of a litre was £1.19 and now it's £1.40. That's a shocking increase.

That's a pretty standard price change here. In the last year it's gone from $1.89 a gallon to $3.25 a gallon. I've seen prices in Massachusetts from $1.65 to $4.25 a gallon over the last ten years.