Public confidence tipping point

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monkey
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by monkey » Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:50 pm

science_fox wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:17 pm
Lew Dolby wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:14 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:11 pm


Just heard on the radio that Grant Shapps is considering bringing in the Army to shore up petrol supply deliveries... two thoughts...

a) nothing like having to bring in the Army to boost confidence
b) how big does he think the Army is and how many HGV qualified drivers does he think the Army has?
And how many would be trained / qualified to deliver bulk fuels ??
Some - tanks run about 3mpg, so the army needs a lot of fuel. Whether that's some on a national scale I've no idea.
The news article I read (think it was sky) said that there were potentially 2000 hgv drivers in the army, mostly from the TA. It also said that 100,000 were needed. But I suppose Joe/Jane squaddie could be pointed in the direction of the most important deliveries to alleviate the secondary affects, such as what happens when the petrol runs out.

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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by dyqik » Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:04 pm

monkey wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:50 pm
science_fox wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:17 pm
Lew Dolby wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:14 pm


And how many would be trained / qualified to deliver bulk fuels ??
Some - tanks run about 3mpg, so the army needs a lot of fuel. Whether that's some on a national scale I've no idea.
The news article I read (think it was sky) said that there were potentially 2000 hgv drivers in the army, mostly from the TA. It also said that 100,000 were needed. But I suppose Joe/Jane squaddie could be pointed in the direction of the most important deliveries to alleviate the secondary affects, such as what happens when the petrol runs out.
I wouldn't put it past this government to come up with the idea of regulating fuel rationing by driving tanks around.

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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by monkey » Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:09 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:04 pm
monkey wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:50 pm
science_fox wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:17 pm


Some - tanks run about 3mpg, so the army needs a lot of fuel. Whether that's some on a national scale I've no idea.
The news article I read (think it was sky) said that there were potentially 2000 hgv drivers in the army, mostly from the TA. It also said that 100,000 were needed. But I suppose Joe/Jane squaddie could be pointed in the direction of the most important deliveries to alleviate the secondary affects, such as what happens when the petrol runs out.
I wouldn't put it past this government to come up with the idea of regulating fuel rationing by driving tanks around.
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by Martin_B » Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:16 am

lpm wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:10 pm
Lol. Lorry drivers are queuing for fuel. Soon they might not be able to get fuel. I'm not sure if this makes the impact of not enough lorry drivers better or worse.

Problem with this forum is there's too many escapees sitting in Spain or Italy or US or Australia, with their food and electricity and petrol. Smug bastards. Still, we're the ones with the best rat recipes.
I thought the French had the best rat recipes. Over here it tend to be kangaroo (large rat) as the smaller local rat-versions are protected. And cute.
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by Millennie Al » Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:58 am

monkey wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:50 pm
The news article I read (think it was sky) said that there were potentially 2000 hgv drivers in the army, mostly from the TA. It also said that 100,000 were needed. But I suppose Joe/Jane squaddie could be pointed in the direction of the most important deliveries to alleviate the secondary affects, such as what happens when the petrol runs out.
The TA consists of part-timers who have civilian full-time jobs. I expect that HGV drivers in the TA include some who are professional HGV drivers, so won't add as much as you might think.
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:02 am

monkey wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:50 pm
The news article I read (think it was sky) said that there were potentially 2000 hgv drivers in the army, mostly from the TA. It also said that 100,000 were needed.
I presume that the number of HGV drivers hasn't gone down by 100,000 since Brexit. I know that as an explanation of the shortages the excuse that "it's a Europe/world-wide problem" is bollocks put out by deniers, but I also imagine that the industry would like there to be 100,000 more so that they're competing for the jobs. So presumably pre-Brexit there was a fake shortage (say 50,000), a real shortage (say 20,000) requiring structural overtime/"running hot", and a potential shortage (say 30,000, who have left). And those 30,000 have caused the system to go from "stretched but we can manage" to "oh sh.t".

However, the numbers in that little model are proctologically derived, so I have no idea what the impact of 2,000 military drivers or the reported 5,000 short-term visas for HGV drivers (there's apparently another 5,000 for meat processing workers, according to the FT this morning) might have. Depending on the degree of nonlinearity in the system, it could be anywhere from "f.ck all" to "making a huge difference, actually".
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:00 am

There's some data here: https://logistics.org.uk/CMSPages/GetFi ... lang=en-GB
HGV UK.jpg
HGV UK.jpg (192.62 KiB) Viewed 400 times
The report published in December 2020 estimated shortage of 76 000 skilled HGV drivers.

From Q4 2018 to Q2 2020 there was a large drop (26 000) in the total numbers employed, from 313 000 to 287 000. EU drivers dropped from a high of 43 000 or 15% of the workforce to in Q3 2019 to 25 000 and 9% of the workforce in Q2 2020. So the drop in total numbers isn't just due to the absence of EU drivers (there is still an 18 000 gap).

But there was also a dramatic fall in the number of tests taken and passed in Q2 2020 compared to previous quarters as the DVLA stopped tests. Assuming that trend continued in later quarters Covid measures cut off the flow of tesn of thousands of new UK drivers into the sector.

There were a tiny number of HGV drivers claiming jobseekers allowance (148) in Q2 2020. So the drop in employment probably wasn't caused by huge numbers of drivers losing their jobs due to Covid (which I'd expect that the transport sector wasn't one which was badly hit).

A couple of thousand UK armed forces drivers really won't make much of a difference. Firstly because they are a drop in the ocean, and secondly because if they are mainly from the TA they will probably already be working as HGV drivers already. But the army drivers might be useful for ensuring that specific highly important loads get through (assuming that the government has the means to identify the loads and move drivers and trucks to the right place).

The report, published in December 2020 states that:
Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic have exposed structural issues with the logistics labour market. Overall, during this year the logistics sector showed itself to be resilient and flexible in responding to unprecedented challenges. But this has not been the case with its labour market where the picture has been more complex. This complexity has also been reflected in the changing landscape of the UK workforce as a result of both Brexit and COVID-19.

Many of logistics’ underlying problems can be traced back to the banking crisis. In Q2 of 2009, unemployment for HGV drivers soared to a peak of 14,028. This loss of drivers was never corrected, and the driving profession in particular has relied heavily on EU workers.

The large scale and steady immigration of EU nationals from Eastern and Southern Europe went into reverse after the Brexit Referendum, hit by a lower pound and the thought of a potentially less stable or attractive working environment. EU net migration fell, followed by a period of stability. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has seen thousands of EU workers leave the UK. The number of EU HGV and van drivers fell by 36% and 34%, respectively, in the year to the end of Q2 2020.

Immigration policy in the UK has radically altered too. From now on there will be a clear points-based system of immigration, focused on higher-skilled workers. An independent expert body, the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), monitors employment across the economy and recommends temporary adjustments to the policy to allow shortage occupations to access Britain’s job markets when required. In addition, there has been a surprisingly high influx of UK nationals – more than 800,000 since the first quarter of 2020.

[...]

These trends in immigration raise the complicated question of why more UK nationals are not filling these key roles in logistics, such as HGV drivers. We know the COVID-19 crisis has wrought economic havoc with, sadly, millions of people likely to face unemployment. We also know that demand for staff in logistics is high, particularly for HGV drivers and warehouse operatives. So, what are the barriers?

The first issue is the cost of training. For HGV drivers, it costs around £7,000 to gain full qualification – this cost is clearly too high for most individuals to pay out of their own pocket. We are calling for the creation of a grant scheme or interest-free loan system to reduce or remove the barrier of upfront training costs.

Logistics firms typically pay the training costs of new recruits; however, with so few drivers in the job market – the latest national statistics show a staggeringly low figure of 120 unemployed qualified HGV drivers (October) – there is every incentive for newly trained drivers to move to a different employer should higher wages be on offer following qualification. This creates a disincentive for business to spend additional funds on training.

Firms struggle to spend apprenticeship levy funding on driving and warehouse jobs due to a combination of rigid rules and a lack of fundable courses. For example, the requirement for 20% off-the-job training for apprentices is very difficult to manage in practice for apprentice drivers, while there is still, after three years of work, no apprenticeship standard for Warehouse Managers, and consequently no funding available. In England in 2018/19, the latest period for which figures are available, the number of transport and logistics apprenticeship starts was 15% lower than 2017/18.

There are many other barriers to entry to logistics operational roles. HGV driving is an overwhelmingly male-dominated profession, with men constituting 99.6% in Q2 2020. The proportion of all qualified female HGV drivers has fluctuated between 0.1% to 3% over the last decade. There is some positive news in that the percentage of women taking HGV tests has risen to 9.4% but it is clear that they are not all taking up HGV driving as a profession.

To attract a more gender-diverse workforce will likely require a dramatic improvement in driver facilities, such as safe places to rest, sleep and take refreshment breaks. The Government can enable the provision of more suitable parking spaces; Logistics UK has campaigned for years to create more secure HGV parking spaces with suitable facilities and although Government Ministers have made promises to deliver, and Highways England has undertaken studies of what might be delivered, the shortfall of at least 650 spaces remains. The sector also faces challenges attracting a more ethnically diverse workforce; this is an area for further investigation to identify the barriers.

A final barrier has been Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency (DVSA) withdrawal of HGV driving tests during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the development of COVID-19-secure processes and means to take tests, DVSA shut the system down and delivered only 631 practical tests in Q2, 97% fewer than the same time the previous year. This has the effect of blocking entry to the profession and employment opportunities for those out of work. We are calling for urgent action to make up this shortfall, including delegation of tests to third parties who can guarantee the same quality outcome, in a COVID-19 secure way.

To conclude, the skills shortage, particularly for HGV drivers, has reached a crisis point, with a current shortage of 76,000. During this period of mounting unemployment, we are extremely concerned that Government policies are preventing people from joining the sector, through a combination of bureaucratic apprenticeship levy rules, withdrawal of COVID-19-secure tests and the effect of immigration restrictions that inhibit qualified foreign drivers from being able to obtain work visas through the SOL. The time for talk is over: Government must act now in partnership with industry to secure the future of logistics.

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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:47 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:00 am
There's some data here: https://logistics.org.uk/CMSPages/GetFi ... lang=en-GB
Thanks. The problem with extrapolating from is that the numbers end in Q2/2020 when there was, um, quite a lot of other stuff going on. I see that 14k drivers went home to the EU, but presumably without Brexit many of those would have returned (indeed, perhaps many did in Q3/Q4 when the perceived danger of Covid was reduced from "potentially apocalyptic, you might want to be with your loved ones). But the loss of those 14k didn't apparently cause any immediate major supply chain issues.
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:49 pm

Can we collect all this stuff about supply chains into one thread?

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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by plodder » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:15 pm

The first issue is the cost of training. For HGV drivers, it costs around £7,000 to gain full qualification – this cost is clearly too high for most individuals to pay out of their own pocket. We are calling for the creation of a grant scheme or interest-free loan system to reduce or remove the barrier of upfront training costs.
Much of the training required to be an HGV driver is extremely poor quality, classroom-based, death-by-powerpoint b.llsh.t. It's called CPD but it's neither continuous, professional or helping towards anyone's development. It could easily be streamlined, replaced or removed at very little detriment. In terms of practical training, typically two people are trained at the same time, taking turns driving one HGV with the trainer, for 5 continuous days. The fact that this costs £7,000 each (or £14,000 for both drivers) is scandalous.

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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by nezumi » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:33 pm

I attempted the LGV test a couple of years ago. I didn't get past the test because probably sexism (I nailed the reversing test every single time. reversing an LGV is easier than reversing a car without cameras.), I got the same tester every time and he was a total a..eh.le.

Aanywho. There's no classroom style training whatsoever when you train as an LGV driver - there is if you train as a taxi driver (which I have also done) but that's because you're only driving the same type of vehicle as you're already licensed for. The theory stuff is done via online learning system and is a refresher on basic theory and a fair few extra bits*. It's a theory test in exactly the same format as the one you do to drive in the first place. The majority of the training is turning up at 6am to drive the wagon about for like 8 hours, finding out where the rest stops are (the most important bit, obviously) and trying to find somewhere you're allowed to practice manoeuvres.

I would happily go back to it if it paid more than I get now, if the hours were a bit more sociable and if I didn't get treated like sh.t. I have a few lorry-driving friends and they would be happy if this shortage caused their lot to improve. Personally, I'd like to see more freight moved back to newly reopened rail but pigs might also fly out of my arse, so there's that.

* There's an unexpectedly large amount of first aid type stuff in there. As a lorry driver, you're almost expected to be a first responder in an emergency.
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by plodder » Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:53 pm

nezumi wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:33 pm
I attempted the LGV test a couple of years ago. I didn't get past the test because probably sexism (I nailed the reversing test every single time. reversing an LGV is easier than reversing a car without cameras.), I got the same tester every time and he was a total a..eh.le.

Aanywho. There's no classroom style training whatsoever when you train as an LGV driver - there is if you train as a taxi driver (which I have also done) but that's because you're only driving the same type of vehicle as you're already licensed for. The theory stuff is done via online learning system and is a refresher on basic theory and a fair few extra bits*. It's a theory test in exactly the same format as the one you do to drive in the first place. The majority of the training is turning up at 6am to drive the wagon about for like 8 hours, finding out where the rest stops are (the most important bit, obviously) and trying to find somewhere you're allowed to practice manoeuvres.

I would happily go back to it if it paid more than I get now, if the hours were a bit more sociable and if I didn't get treated like sh.t. I have a few lorry-driving friends and they would be happy if this shortage caused their lot to improve. Personally, I'd like to see more freight moved back to newly reopened rail but pigs might also fly out of my arse, so there's that.

* There's an unexpectedly large amount of first aid type stuff in there. As a lorry driver, you're almost expected to be a first responder in an emergency.
That's interesting - my experience is obviously out of date. Would you have faced a £7000 bill?

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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by nezumi » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:04 pm

plodder wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:53 pm
nezumi wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:33 pm
I attempted the LGV test a couple of years ago. I didn't get past the test because probably sexism (I nailed the reversing test every single time. reversing an LGV is easier than reversing a car without cameras.), I got the same tester every time and he was a total a..eh.le.

Aanywho. There's no classroom style training whatsoever when you train as an LGV driver - there is if you train as a taxi driver (which I have also done) but that's because you're only driving the same type of vehicle as you're already licensed for. The theory stuff is done via online learning system and is a refresher on basic theory and a fair few extra bits*. It's a theory test in exactly the same format as the one you do to drive in the first place. The majority of the training is turning up at 6am to drive the wagon about for like 8 hours, finding out where the rest stops are (the most important bit, obviously) and trying to find somewhere you're allowed to practice manoeuvres.

I would happily go back to it if it paid more than I get now, if the hours were a bit more sociable and if I didn't get treated like sh.t. I have a few lorry-driving friends and they would be happy if this shortage caused their lot to improve. Personally, I'd like to see more freight moved back to newly reopened rail but pigs might also fly out of my arse, so there's that.

* There's an unexpectedly large amount of first aid type stuff in there. As a lorry driver, you're almost expected to be a first responder in an emergency.
That's interesting - my experience is obviously out of date. Would you have faced a £7000 bill?
£3500 roughly. Would have gone for it again but I happened to get a well-paid job in an unrelated sector.
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:26 pm

An accusation that the petrol panic was deliberately created to push the government into changing the immigration rules: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-sp ... 10932.html

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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:32 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:26 pm
An accusation that the petrol panic was deliberately created to push the government into changing the immigration rules: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-sp ... 10932.html
Don't know if that is true, but one clear alternative solution to this issue would be raising HGV pay. The kind of corporate capitalists that people on this board should be watching like hawks are very, very practiced at lobbying to socialise their costs with appeals to emotion & altruism, whilst keeping their profits private and as much of their taxable profit offshore as they possibly can.

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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:05 pm

There is a fairly constant low-level discourse in that interesting area of US politics where organised labour meets social conservatism, claiming that there are no skill shortages, only companies wanting to drive down the cost of labour by importing cheap furriners.
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by sheldrake » Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:18 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:05 pm
There is a fairly constant low-level discourse in that interesting area of US politics where organised labour meets social conservatism, claiming that there are no skill shortages, only companies wanting to drive down the cost of labour by importing cheap furriners.
This is a lightening-rod subject that's been there since the beginning of the UK's labour movement too. Keir Hardie wrote diatribes about the effect of imported Labour.

Racial or national discrimination is unacceptable, but does that mean a completely borderless world is a good idea? Obviously the true nasty right wants to exploit this because they actually just hate foreigners, but I think corporate capital has expertly navigated the discourse here; they will keep a straight face and claim the moral high ground when their only real concern is suppressing wages.

Our current immigration rules (https://www.gov.uk/skilled-worker-visa/your-job) state the following for work permits

"You must meet all of the following requirements to be eligible for a Skilled Worker visa:

your job is eligible for this visa
you’ll be working for a UK employer that’s been approved by the Home Office
you’ll be paid at least the minimum salary for the type of work you’ll be doing
The minimum salary for the type of work you’ll be doing is whichever is the highest out of the following 3 options:

£25,600 per year
£10.10 per hour
the ‘going rate’ for the type of work you’ll be doing"

Telling BP they can have a driver from wherever they want as long as they're paying at least 25.6k a year doesn't sound very onerous to me. Driving a fuel tanker sounds like hard, skillful work. I have no problem with the drivers making twice that if thats what it costs to get people

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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by Millennie Al » Sun Sep 26, 2021 1:55 am

sheldrake wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:18 pm
Racial or national discrimination is unacceptable, but does that mean a completely borderless world is a good idea?
Yes.
Our current immigration rules (https://www.gov.uk/skilled-worker-visa/your-job) state the following for work permits
...
Telling BP they can have a driver from wherever they want as long as they're paying at least 25.6k a year doesn't sound very onerous to me.
It isn't. But BP cannot get drivers merely by offering 25.6k. That is just one of many burdens imposed by the current legal situation. The "hostile environment" policy is a racist and xenophobic policy with the intent and effect of keeping out foreigners. It has many layers to it, including obstacles which merely slow down legal immigrants rather than prevent them.
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by Al Capone Junior » Sun Sep 26, 2021 2:17 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:08 pm
Nice animals, pigs. About as smart as dogs, with considerable social intelligence.

They get a bit of bad press for being smelly, but at least they aren't producing enough noxious gas to heat the planet by 2.8°C.
The bad press they get here is bc of all the crop destruction they cause, and the danger of running into them in the woods, esp at night. I know someone whose uncle was killed by a pig. Sliced his femoral artery, bled to death.

One night I was out on a ranch and kept feeling like I was being watched. After a bit I flashed my light and spotted a lone pig about 10 meters away. Talk about getting the willies... At least it wasn't a mother with piglets, or I might be pig food. :shock:

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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by Al Capone Junior » Sun Sep 26, 2021 2:20 am

In the US, I think between trump and biden public confidence tipped already. Lack of trust in institutions is theunderlying theme for every fear-based pile of Artiodactyl dung on sale now by local charlatans.

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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:24 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 1:55 am


It isn't. But BP cannot get drivers merely by offering 25.6k. That is just one of many burdens imposed by the current legal situation. The "hostile environment" policy is a racist and xenophobic policy with the intent and effect of keeping out foreigners. It has many layers to it, including obstacles which merely slow down legal immigrants rather than prevent them.
I do not think the 'hostile environment' policy is preventing skilled workers from entering the UK. Migration to the UK continued to trend upwards after 2016 https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/r ... om-the-uk/ although the composition shifted away from people from the EU.

Lots of businesses are able to cope with the paperwork required to hire people from other countries. B.P. were lobbying to have lorry drivers put on the official ' Shortage Occupation List' which allows salaries as low as 20k.

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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by TopBadger » Sun Sep 26, 2021 8:22 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:58 am
monkey wrote:
Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:50 pm
The news article I read (think it was sky) said that there were potentially 2000 hgv drivers in the army, mostly from the TA. It also said that 100,000 were needed. But I suppose Joe/Jane squaddie could be pointed in the direction of the most important deliveries to alleviate the secondary affects, such as what happens when the petrol runs out.
The TA consists of part-timers who have civilian full-time jobs. I expect that HGV drivers in the TA include some who are professional HGV drivers, so won't add as much as you might think.
This... the TA (well, Army Reserve) is how the regular Army fills its skills gaps as well as manpower shortages.

Same goes for Army Medics, most of which are NHS staff serving as reservists.

The gov are now opening up visas until christmas eve. Hardly welcoming is it?

"Please come here and help us, you'll need to sleep in your cabs for 3 months as you wont be able to get a reasonably priced rental for such a short duration, and you will be expected to f.ck off home on christmas eve after you've worked your arses off to avert a christmas crisis for people who hate you...remember that we voted for Brexit because we don't want you here."
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Sep 26, 2021 12:28 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:00 am
There's some data here: https://logistics.org.uk/CMSPages/GetFi ... lang=en-GB
I just found this:
Over the past year the number of drivers in Britain has fallen from 305,000 to 235,000, according to the Office for National Statistics.
That makes sense. It would imply that if you'd asked the RHA a year or so ago, they would have said "We are 30,000 drivers short", which as a fraction seems to correspond to what other countries are reporting (I've seen 50,000 mentioned for Germany and 20,000 for France). 10% short of what the employers would like is perhaps 5% short of what would be optimal. 40% short is another matter.

(I don't have a subscription to The Economist, but they have a stupid "paywall" that leaves the text on the page and then hides it with JavaScript. So you can either disable the JS, or copy/paste the page source into Word and read past the HTML/CSS/JS code.)
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by Millennie Al » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:16 pm

sheldrake wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:24 am
Millennie Al wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 1:55 am


It isn't. But BP cannot get drivers merely by offering 25.6k. That is just one of many burdens imposed by the current legal situation. The "hostile environment" policy is a racist and xenophobic policy with the intent and effect of keeping out foreigners. It has many layers to it, including obstacles which merely slow down legal immigrants rather than prevent them.
I do not think the 'hostile environment' policy is preventing skilled workers from entering the UK. Migration to the UK continued to trend upwards after 2016 https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/r ... om-the-uk/ although the composition shifted away from people from the EU.
From your own source, "Net migration of EU citizens rose substantially from 2012 onwards, then fell sharply after the June 2016 EU referendum". Why would that be the case? Bear in mind that the UK's membership of the EU protected EU citizens from most of the hostile environment policy, so the vote showed that they would be subject to it. At just that point there is a major change in immigration. Do you claim this is just a coincidence?
Lots of businesses are able to cope with the paperwork required to hire people from other countries. B.P. were lobbying to have lorry drivers put on the official ' Shortage Occupation List' which allows salaries as low as 20k.
Almost everyone can afford to pay a few pence more for sugary fizzy drinks, yet the sugar tax had the intent and effect of reducing consumption.
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sheldrake
Dorkwood
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Re: Public confidence tipping point

Post by sheldrake » Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:29 pm

Millennie Al wrote:
Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:16 pm


From your own source, "Net migration of EU citizens rose substantially from 2012 onwards, then fell sharply after the June 2016 EU referendum". Why would that be the case? Bear in mind that the UK's membership of the EU protected EU citizens from most of the hostile environment policy, so the vote showed that they would be subject to it. At just that point there is a major change in immigration. Do you claim this is just a coincidence?
EU immigration is not total immigration. Total immigration rose. The hostile environment policy, for all its failings, did not actually reduce immigration.
Lots of businesses are able to cope with the paperwork required to hire people from other countries. B.P. were lobbying to have lorry drivers put on the official ' Shortage Occupation List' which allows salaries as low as 20k.
Almost everyone can afford to pay a few pence more for sugary fizzy drinks, yet the sugar tax had the intent and effect of reducing consumption.
I'm very happy for UK lorry drivers wages to increase. I know this isn't free.

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