huge bomb ship in the Yemen

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dyqik
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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by dyqik » Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:55 pm

Martin_B wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:35 pm
** Just read that the Safer isn't a VLCC, it's a ULCC. VLCCs are up to 320,000 DWT, the Safer is a 406,000 DWT!
Bit of a VHF/UHF problem there. I work at a hundred to a thousand times the frequency of UHF. Apparently known as THF, for Tremendously High Frequency. Which is the band above Extremely High Frequency.

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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by noggins » Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:42 am

Its “only” got 150,000 dwt oil onboard though

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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by Martin_B » Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:55 pm

noggins wrote:
Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:42 am
Its “only” got 150,000 dwt oil onboard though
Which is important for the environment, but not when trying to tow it to a safe place to scrap.
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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by KAJ » Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:50 pm

Relevant article in Grauniad

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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:42 pm

Seems like an argument for something like the UN Peacekeeping forces intervening.

f.cking up 7m people's water, especially round there *waves arms* doesn't seem like a good idea.
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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:45 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:42 pm
Seems like an argument for something like the UN Peacekeeping forces intervening.

f.cking up 7m people's water, especially round there *waves arms* doesn't seem like a good idea.
You’d be looking at something more like an invasion of the area around the ship rather than peacekeeping, as the latter needs the consent of the parties in a conflict (or at least the most important ones).

Two problems there. Firstly, a military take over of the ship and surrounding waters would involve a high risk of shooting and explosions. Which really wouldn’t be a good idea.

Secondly, getting the necessary resolution passed by the UN Security Council would be difficult. Leaving aside the risks of military action blowing up the ship lots of states are very reluctant to have UN sanctioned attacks (yes, that happened in Libya in 2011, but that’s widely viewed as something which made the situation worse).

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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by Martin_B » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:28 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:45 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:42 pm
Seems like an argument for something like the UN Peacekeeping forces intervening.

f.cking up 7m people's water, especially round there *waves arms* doesn't seem like a good idea.
You’d be looking at something more like an invasion of the area around the ship rather than peacekeeping, as the latter needs the consent of the parties in a conflict (or at least the most important ones).

Two problems there. Firstly, a military take over of the ship and surrounding waters would involve a high risk of shooting and explosions. Which really wouldn’t be a good idea.

Secondly, getting the necessary resolution passed by the UN Security Council would be difficult. Leaving aside the risks of military action blowing up the ship lots of states are very reluctant to have UN sanctioned attacks (yes, that happened in Libya in 2011, but that’s widely viewed as something which made the situation worse).
Considering the Houthis want the ship repaired, it seems like they want to continue owning (and presumably producing) through the field. It might be cheaper at current tanker prices to buy them a 2nd hand double-skinned tanker.

There's a 10-year old double-skinned VLCC on sale now for US$41 million. Converting it for use as an FSO like the Safer shouldn't be more than the same price (should be US$10-20 million, but it depends on how much work is required - it sounds like all processing is done onshore and it's just storage, so it should be the lower end - connections for turret swivel only - the current swivel might need some work, though.)

The Safer is supposed to have 1.1 million barrels of oil on board, and the current spot price is about US$80/barrel. The scrap value of the Safer (assuming it can be moved) should be around $20 million, but even assuming you can only give it to a scrap yard for nothing (there's a lot of steel left there and lots of spare capacity in the scrapyards) then it seems like you'd at least break even by taking control of the Safer and giving the Houthis a 'new' FSO.
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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:09 am

Martin_B wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:28 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:45 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:42 pm
Seems like an argument for something like the UN Peacekeeping forces intervening.

f.cking up 7m people's water, especially round there *waves arms* doesn't seem like a good idea.
You’d be looking at something more like an invasion of the area around the ship rather than peacekeeping, as the latter needs the consent of the parties in a conflict (or at least the most important ones).

Two problems there. Firstly, a military take over of the ship and surrounding waters would involve a high risk of shooting and explosions. Which really wouldn’t be a good idea.

Secondly, getting the necessary resolution passed by the UN Security Council would be difficult. Leaving aside the risks of military action blowing up the ship lots of states are very reluctant to have UN sanctioned attacks (yes, that happened in Libya in 2011, but that’s widely viewed as something which made the situation worse).
Considering the Houthis want the ship repaired, it seems like they want to continue owning (and presumably producing) through the field. It might be cheaper at current tanker prices to buy them a 2nd hand double-skinned tanker.

There's a 10-year old double-skinned VLCC on sale now for US$41 million. Converting it for use as an FSO like the Safer shouldn't be more than the same price (should be US$10-20 million, but it depends on how much work is required - it sounds like all processing is done onshore and it's just storage, so it should be the lower end - connections for turret swivel only - the current swivel might need some work, though.)

The Safer is supposed to have 1.1 million barrels of oil on board, and the current spot price is about US$80/barrel. The scrap value of the Safer (assuming it can be moved) should be around $20 million, but even assuming you can only give it to a scrap yard for nothing (there's a lot of steel left there and lots of spare capacity in the scrapyards) then it seems like you'd at least break even by taking control of the Safer and giving the Houthis a 'new' FSO.
Yes, that would probably be the best solution.

There will still be big problems implementing it even if a party can be found that is willing to buy a new tanker and give it to the Houthi government. They have had to endure UN sanctions since 2015, and a brutal Saudi led war against them (which has been supported by the US, UK, France etc). So there will be very little trust for any of the obvious candidates with enough capacity to be able to buy a new tanker, safely move the Safer and sell the oil it contains.

A deep pocketed mostly neutral state like Japan might be acceptable to the Houthis, but such a government might well decide that the risks of getting involved were too high.

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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by noggins » Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:26 pm

The Houthis have a war to win, and the ship is a weapon. The Houthis claim for a replacement vessel is a diversion.
There is no resolution to this without peace, at least locally, if not the whole of Yemen.

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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by dyqik » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:32 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:09 am
Martin_B wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:28 am
Considering the Houthis want the ship repaired, it seems like they want to continue owning (and presumably producing) through the field. It might be cheaper at current tanker prices to buy them a 2nd hand double-skinned tanker.

There's a 10-year old double-skinned VLCC on sale now for US$41 million. Converting it for use as an FSO like the Safer shouldn't be more than the same price (should be US$10-20 million, but it depends on how much work is required - it sounds like all processing is done onshore and it's just storage, so it should be the lower end - connections for turret swivel only - the current swivel might need some work, though.)

The Safer is supposed to have 1.1 million barrels of oil on board, and the current spot price is about US$80/barrel. The scrap value of the Safer (assuming it can be moved) should be around $20 million, but even assuming you can only give it to a scrap yard for nothing (there's a lot of steel left there and lots of spare capacity in the scrapyards) then it seems like you'd at least break even by taking control of the Safer and giving the Houthis a 'new' FSO.
Yes, that would probably be the best solution.

There will still be big problems implementing it even if a party can be found that is willing to buy a new tanker and give it to the Houthi government. They have had to endure UN sanctions since 2015, and a brutal Saudi led war against them (which has been supported by the US, UK, France etc). So there will be very little trust for any of the obvious candidates with enough capacity to be able to buy a new tanker, safely move the Safer and sell the oil it contains.

A deep pocketed mostly neutral state like Japan might be acceptable to the Houthis, but such a government might well decide that the risks of getting involved were too high.
You've still got to clear the minefield around the Safer, though.

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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by plodder » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:36 pm

noggins wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:26 pm
The Houthis have a war to win, and the ship is a weapon. The Houthis claim for a replacement vessel is a diversion.
There is no resolution to this without peace, at least locally, if not the whole of Yemen.
wisdom. It’s a hell of a bargaining chip.

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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by Sciolus » Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:21 pm

Yeah, the only way to fix the Safer is to let the Houthis win the war, which means Saudi Arabia losing, which means the West won't support it, which makes it highly unlikely. I really can't see a viable solution.

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Re: huge bomb ship in the Yemen

Post by Matatouille » Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:34 am

Sciolus wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:21 pm
Yeah, the only way to fix the Safer is to let the Houthis win the war, which means Saudi Arabia losing, which means the West won't support it, which makes it highly unlikely. I really can't see a viable solution.
If the Houthis can be persuaded to give up the ballistic missiles and launchers (given to them by the last Yemeni President in a bid to stay in power), the Saudis might be more persuadeable for a Houthi controlled state on their doorstep. This is substantially what it has all been about: an Iran ally with missiles able to reach the Saudi desalination plants that they'd carefully placed on their one coast that was out of range of Iran itself.

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