Scrutable

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:38 pm

Trade deal with NZ https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-a ... ew-zealand

Not a massive amount of money, but their wines will cost less

From https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ing-to-gdp

The deal may boost New Zealand’s GDP by $970m or around 0.3%. However, last year’s analysis by the UK government found that its effect on Britain’s GDP would probably have “limited effect … in the long run” – being between a positive growth of 0.01% or negative growth of -0.01%.

So it's such a small effect that it's probably going to be too small to measure.

To be fair they probably used the same gravity models with mis-set parameters that generated all the wrong predictions before the referendum.

You got a better prediction?

plodder wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:36 am

You got a better prediction?

It won't be a big enough amount of money for it be worth me getting into an argument about this. You will get some cheaper decent wine out of it. There's a little benefit for you. It will probably also help on the path to joining this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehen ... artnership

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:38 pm

Trade deal with NZ https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-a ... ew-zealand

Not a massive amount of money, but their wines will cost less

Ship more stuff literally half way round the globe? Great idea

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:39 am

plodder wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:36 am

You got a better prediction?

It won't be a big enough amount of money for it be worth me getting into an argument about this. You will get some cheaper decent wine out of it. There's a little benefit for you. It will probably also help on the path to joining this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehen ... artnership

so why poo-poo the gravity model before conceding the point?

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:39 am

plodder wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:36 am

You got a better prediction?

You will get some cheaper decent wine out of it.

Import Duties on wines up to 15% are in the region of £10 - £12 /hectolitre.
So at best the super duper saving will be 9p per bottle of NZ wine.

Compared to the £2.86 Excise duties, this is negligible.

Think of the exports though. The Kiwis are desperate for some innovative jams.

TimW wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:45 am

Think of the exports though. The Kiwis are desperate for some innovative jams.

don’t be facetious. we’re a major arms exporter and the NZ military is famous for its expansionist ambitions. aircraft carriers, submarines, cruise missiles - they’ll snap em up.

plodder wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:05 am

so why poo-poo the gravity model before conceding the point?

Because they were used to make very wrong predictions in the past, so I wouldn't treat treasury predictions as facts.

plodder wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:24 pm

TimW wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:45 am

Think of the exports though. The Kiwis are desperate for some innovative jams.

don’t be facetious. we’re a major arms exporter and the NZ military is famous for its expansionist ambitions. aircraft carriers, submarines, cruise missiles - they’ll snap em up.

Yes, they've got to maintain their hold on Gondor and deter the expansionist desires of Mordor somehow.

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:17 pm

plodder wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:05 am

so why poo-poo the gravity model before conceding the point?

Because they were used to make very wrong predictions in the past, so I wouldn't treat treasury predictions as facts.

And in the very next breath you agree with them and refuse to provide anything better - I wouldn’t treat your non-predictions as fact either. What to do with these endless piles of b.llsh.t?

plodder wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:38 pm

And in the very next breath you agree with them and refuse to provide anything better

I didn't agree with them. You've got a weird perspective where 'can't be bothered to argue over X' gets translated into 'I agree with X'.

plodder wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:38 pm

I wouldn’t treat your non-predictions as fact either.

Maybe not, but I've got a better track record than most of the rabid twitter personalities you've been suckered by on this.

You agreed with the treasury it would not be measurable enough to bother arguing the toss. At least the treasury could be bothered to show their working.

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:40 pm

plodder wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:38 pm

I wouldn’t treat your non-predictions as fact either.

Maybe not, but I've got a better track record than most of the rabid twitter personalities you've been suckered by on this.

oh god I’m out lock this thread too please

I think this thread should stay open and Plodder's whining should be moved to The Pit.

i might confine both of you to the pit if this keeps up

Right, both of you, to your rooms, now - oh, hang on that’s home, not forum……

Another benefit, we're not going to be part of the wrangling and picking-of-sides here https://unherd.com/2021/10/poland-could ... wn-the-eu/

People have described brexit as a cry of frustration, a kick to the establishment etc.. looks like it’s been heard

As sh.tty as the old establishment was, these new guys are also establishment as f.ck, but they're stupid c.nts to boot.

I'll Ding Dong if Thatcher's really dead along with the best of them, but imagine if the man behind the curtain was Boris f.cking Johnson and the munchkins seem to really like him.

I realised it was satire not analysis at the bit that said Brexit has ‘created a desire for social cohesion’.

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:39 am

It will probably also help on the path to joining this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehen ... artnership

You don't see the bizarre contrast between membership of one trading bloc being a bad thing, but claiming that a benefit of leaving it is that it helps us join a different one?

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:54 am

To be fair they probably used the same gravity models with mis-set parameters that generated all the wrong predictions before the referendum.

I'm in the market for a comprehensive list of failed predictions if you have one to hand.

I hadn't been thinking of them, but now that you've mentioned gravity models with mis-set parameters being responsible I'd be very interested to see how that list of failures breaks down by use of a gravity model or not. If you could also explain what's wrong with the parameters used and what the correctly-set parameters would have been, that would be great but obviously I appreciate I'm asking a lot here and you only have so much time to spare.