Scrutable

jdc wrote: ↑

Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:22 pm

I'm in the market for a comprehensive list of failed predictions if you have one to hand.

I hadn't been thinking of them, but now that you've mentioned gravity models with mis-set parameters being responsible I'd be very interested to see how that list of failures breaks down by use of a gravity model or not. If you could also explain what's wrong with the parameters used and what the correctly-set parameters would have been, that would be great but obviously I appreciate I'm asking a lot here and you only have so much time to spare.

Start a new thread and I'll oblige, this thread is about brexit benefits

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:47 pm

jdc wrote: ↑

Sat Oct 23, 2021 5:22 pm

I'm in the market for a comprehensive list of failed predictions if you have one to hand.

I hadn't been thinking of them, but now that you've mentioned gravity models with mis-set parameters being responsible I'd be very interested to see how that list of failures breaks down by use of a gravity model or not. If you could also explain what's wrong with the parameters used and what the correctly-set parameters would have been, that would be great but obviously I appreciate I'm asking a lot here and you only have so much time to spare.

Start a new thread and I'll oblige, this thread is about brexit benefits

Woohoo. Thanks Sheldrake.

Excellent - we can get rid of all that EU red tape about water pollution from sewage and get on with cleaning up our rivers in our own way.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... discharges

Didn't check how the vote went in parliament, can someone fill me in? It's good news, right?

* shrugs *

Oh. Oh dear. Well, at least there's some handwringing and a commitment to learn more about the issues before the next vote.

https://www.david-davies.org.uk/news/en ... nts-sewage

Ireland is benefitting:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... nce-brexit

This is not the "moaning about brexit via guardian linkdrop and unsourced quotes" thread, thanks.

eta: exports to the EU in August 2021 were higher than in August 2015 or 2016 https://www.statista.com/statistics/284 ... ade-value/

plodder wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:54 pm

great news for people who want to retaliate against the French

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ishing-row

Do you sincerely think of this as a benefit?

It will clearly benefit people who want to put on a show over a couple of fishing boats in order to create a distraction. If you can’t see the benefits in Great Global Britain socking it to the Frenchies I can’t help you.

plodder wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 28, 2021 8:03 am

It will clearly benefit people who want to put on a show over a couple of fishing boats in order to create a distraction. If you can’t see the benefits in Great Global Britain socking it to the Frenchies I can’t help you.

There's nobody here like that. I think you know that I know what you're really doing. Tut tut. Bad faith.

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:24 pm

This is not the "moaning about brexit via guardian linkdrop and unsourced quotes" thread, thanks.

eta: exports to the EU in August 2021 were higher than in August 2015 or 2016 https://www.statista.com/statistics/284 ... ade-value/

Genuine question, is the "value" of the imports and exports to the EU influenced by the value of the GBP to the EUR?

Zelot wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:42 pm

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:24 pm

This is not the "moaning about brexit via guardian linkdrop and unsourced quotes" thread, thanks.

eta: exports to the EU in August 2021 were higher than in August 2015 or 2016 https://www.statista.com/statistics/284 ... ade-value/

Genuine question, is the "value" of the imports and exports to the EU influenced by the value of the GBP to the EUR?

Yes, almost certainly. But currency devaluations and domestic price inflation don't move in lockstep.

Moved some posts about the recent locking of a different thread to the Mod baiting sub
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=2867

Ryanair is apparently delisting from the LSE and will be traded in Dublin and Brussels.

I think it is possible that a lot of the Brexit benefits are not necessarily accruing to the UK.

temptar wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:43 pm

Ryanair is apparently delisting from the LSE and will be traded in Dublin and Brussels.

I think it is possible that a lot of the Brexit benefits are not necessarily accruing to the UK.

Do you think they'll actually benefit overall from the move, or is this just damage limitation?

It means they'll be wholly EU owned, cuts down on paperwork when flying in and out of 3rd countries (UK) - does mean that internal UK flights will be more difficult (and presumably it won't stop them training at E Mids like they have been for the last few weeks)

temptar wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:43 pm

Ryanair is apparently delisting from the LSE and will be traded in Dublin and Brussels.

I think it is possible that a lot of the Brexit benefits are not necessarily accruing to the UK.

This is because the EU has protectionist rules banning airlines from being EU-based unless 50% or more of their shares are owned by EU nationals or EU-based companies. Ryanair currently only has about 33% EU ownership and hopes to shore this up by listing on EU exchanges. By intentionally limiting the pool of people who can own shares in this company, expect the price to decline.

Note: This is not a brexit benefit to the UK, Ryanair or likely much to the EU as they were already listed in Dublin (where their trading volume had also fallen). The UK business will not be conducted through EU exchanges as the whole point of the EU regulation is to shut non-EU customers out.

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:52 pm

temptar wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:43 pm

Ryanair is apparently delisting from the LSE and will be traded in Dublin and Brussels.

I think it is possible that a lot of the Brexit benefits are not necessarily accruing to the UK.

This is because the EU has protectionist rules banning airlines from being EU-based unless 50% or more of their shares are owned by EU nationals or EU-based companies. Ryanair currently only has about 33% EU ownership and hopes to shore this up by listing on EU exchanges. By intentionally limiting the pool of people who can own shares in this company, expect the price to decline.

You cited more liberal state aid options as a benefit of Brexit. This means that criticising any other entity for protectionism is more than a bit hypocritical.

Much of Ryanair's non-EU shareholders are US based. The question of UK shareholders is something they have been planning for since 2016 because unlike the UK government they actually engaged in planning.

By definition aviation share prices are at risk, not just for Ryanair but across the board. The sector is a) very cyclical b) prone to disproportionate impacts from external events and c) a high carbon emitter. This latter one is particularly critical in terms of future growth - or not - in the sector.

In short, if and when FR's share price slips, it won't simply be because they demister from the London Stock Exchange.

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:08 pm

Note: This is not a brexit benefit to the UK, Ryanair or likely much to the EU as they were already listed in Dublin (where their trading volume had also fallen). The UK business will not be conducted through EU exchanges as the whole point of the EU regulation is to shut non-EU customers out.

I didn't say it was a Brexit benefit for the UK. For Ryanair it is an inevitable cost of Brexit and for the EU it probably may be neutral. For some brokers, there will be losses and gains, probably delineated geographically.

But my underlying point is that a lot of the benefits are accruing outside the UK.

You havent actually found a party that this benefits, so I’d say this is the same kind of off-topoc brexit moaning that got moved before. The EU rules here sont do anything to help the company through a transition so I’d hardly class them as state aid.

You have wilfully misunderstood my point. This is in line with the previous thread.

The UK does not benefit by companies and jobs leaving, even for as minor a point as where their shares are traded. Arguably the plus point is that Ryanair no longer has to worry about a deeply dysfunctional government and of course the EU benefits by being seen as a relatively stable place to do business.

Regarding the state aid point: it is protectionism. You accused the EU of having protectionism - protectionism that protected British companies until Brexit I might add - but state aid is okay by you? Yes that is hypocritical.

temptar wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 02, 2021 9:11 am

You have wilfully misunderstood my point. This is in line with the previous thread.

I understand your point its just completely off topic for this thread. You’re trying to crowbar something that isnt about a brexit benedit into a thread that is.

It’s a benefit for somewhere other than the UK. Temptar is teasing you.