Scrutable

David Amess MP has died following a stabbing at his constituency surgery in Leigh-on-Sea in Southend.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58930593

This is not a judgement or condoning in any way the murder of an MP.

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10009 ... west/votes

He was murdered in his constituency office which is shocking and abhorrent. I don't know the area or his family but I do wish them all condolences.

I had only vaguely heard of him, and I don't think I agreed with much of his politics. But this is wholly deplorable. It's particularly bad that he was murdered during a surgery, acting as a constituency MP, one of the most valuable and apolitical parts of an MP's job.

It's horrifying. Right now I don't care what his politics were, the fact that another MP has been murdered is terrifying. Who on earth would want to be a politician when there's a chance someone's going to kill you for trying to do your job? With Jo Cox and now David Amess it's clear our political landscape has been corrupted in a way we've not seen before. I don't know how we fix things but it's pretty clear we must.

It's looking like Islamic terrorism now. So maybe not so much about our domestic political landscape, but instead wider global politics and seeking out a high profile target.

mediocrity511 wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:01 pm

It's looking like Islamic terrorism now. So maybe not so much about our domestic political landscape, but instead wider global politics and seeking out a high profile target.

Is there going to be a spate of these following the attack in Norway? It’s been a few years since the last spate of Islamist attacks in Europe.

It’s appalling that anyone gets murdered in the course of doing their job.

Yes, this is really terrible.

I was reading a thread on Reddit, where all the Americans were shocked at how little security there is at these things. It seems like something we took for granted, but was something to be proud of.

I don't want to completely catastrophise over two rare events, but it's hard not too. I'm recognising the country of my birth less and less these days.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:48 pm

Yes, this is really terrible.

I was reading a thread on Reddit, where all the Americans were shocked at how little security there is at these things. It seems like something we took for granted, but was something to be proud of.

I don't want to completely catastrophise over two rare events, but it's hard not too. I'm recognising the country of my birth less and less these days.

I'd only seen one armed police officer before I arrived in the US. And that was at Heathrow.

My MP was killed by the IRA, at his constituency home, so it's not like there was no threat in the past, either.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:05 pm

Is there going to be a spate of these following the attack in Norway? It’s been a few years since the last spate of Islamist attacks in Europe.

It’s appalling that anyone gets murdered in the course of doing their job.

Whilst there are reports that the attacker was a muslim, it may not have anything to do with their motivation for this terrible crime. It could just be a mentally ill constituent who was angry about something on the news etc..

sheldrake wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:55 pm

Grumble wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:05 pm

Is there going to be a spate of these following the attack in Norway? It’s been a few years since the last spate of Islamist attacks in Europe.

It’s appalling that anyone gets murdered in the course of doing their job.

Whilst there are reports that the attacker was a muslim, it may not have anything to do with their motivation for this terrible crime. It could just be a mentally ill constituent who was angry about something on the news etc..

Please don't spread hatred of mentally ill. It's just bigotry on your part.

Mental illness is not a risk factor for causing violence. It is, however a risk factor for being on the receiving end

I've also reported your post for the bigotry that it is.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:15 pm

Please don't spread hatred of mentally ill. It's just bigotry on your part.

Mental illness is not a risk factor for causing violence. It is, however a risk factor for being on the receiving end

I've also reported your post for the bigotry that it is.

This is quite ridiculous. Mental illnesses of certain kinds absolutely are risk factors for violence, and you are being obtuse; I was quite obviously pointing out that Islam may not be a causal factor here.

eta: particularly paranoid schizophrenia

Schizophrenia and Islam are both pretty rare in the population, to be honest. I'm not sure speculating about one and not the other is particularly bigoted.

As I recall, schizophrenia genuinely isn't an independent risk factor for violence. Those cases to tend to stick in the mind for seeming bizarre. But I'm not sure that being a Muslim is an independent risk factor either?

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:34 pm

Schizophrenia and Islam are both pretty rare in the population, to be honest. I'm not sure speculating about one and not the other is particularly bigoted.

As I recall, schizophrenia genuinely isn't an independent risk factor for violence. Those cases to tend to stick in the mind for seeming bizarre. But I'm not sure that being a Muslim is an independent risk factor either?

Paranoid schizophrenia and several other mental illnesses absolutely are risk factors for violence. Mair who killed Jo Cox also had mental health problems, although he was judged legally responsible at the moment he committed his crime.

I was responding to a post which discussed 'Islamist attacks'. I don't think we know at this point whether the motive had anything to do with Islam (note, I did not report that poster or accuse them of being a bigot)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl ... lationship.

At least twenty studies have reported a positive association between schizophrenia and violence

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:34 pm

Schizophrenia and Islam are both pretty rare in the population, to be honest. I'm not sure speculating about one and not the other is particularly bigoted.

As I recall, schizophrenia genuinely isn't an independent risk factor for violence. Those cases to tend to stick in the mind for seeming bizarre. But I'm not sure that being a Muslim is an independent risk factor either?

It's not.

Here’s a recent summary of research.

Risk factors for interpersonal violence: an umbrella review of meta-analyses

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals ... 3D3AA54267

It’s open access.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:06 pm

Here’s a recent summary of research.

Risk factors for interpersonal violence: an umbrella review of meta-analyses

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals ... 3D3AA54267

It’s open access.

Thanks.

In my understanding, there's an issue with the identification of neuropsychiatric causative factors because of the interaction with socioeconomic status: poverty and social stigma are well-known consequences of mental health problems. From my brief ctrl-Fing of that article, it sounds like the studies in question don't control for that, but it's not my field so I might be missing something.

It's relevant, especially considering that minority groups are at higher risk of developing schizophrenia.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:23 pm

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:06 pm

Here’s a recent summary of research.

Risk factors for interpersonal violence: an umbrella review of meta-analyses

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals ... 3D3AA54267

It’s open access.

Thanks.

In my understanding, there's an issue with the identification of neuropsychiatric causative factors because of the interaction with socioeconomic status: poverty and social stigma are well-known consequences of mental health problems. From my brief ctrl-Fing of that article, it sounds like the studies in question don't control for that, but it's not my field so I might be missing something.

It's relevant, especially considering that minority groups are at higher risk of developing schizophrenia.

It's also not sufficient evidence to make any statement of "it might not have been because he's Muslim, it might be because he's schizophrenic" anything other than bigotry. The vast majority of violence is carried out by men that are neither.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:23 pm

In my understanding, there's an issue with the identification of neuropsychiatric causative factors because of the interaction with socioeconomic status: poverty and social stigma are well-known consequences of mental health problems. From my brief ctrl-Fing of that article, it sounds like the studies in question don't control for that, but it's not my field so I might be missing something.

If you did control for those things, you might well be filtering out proxies for how severe a person's illness was; you'd expect somebody having more trouble functioning in society due to their illness to be more likely to have problems with social isolation and financial problems.

The goal here is noble; be kind and non-judgemental about people who have a mental illness; but to take this to an extreme were we pretend that illness that are literally about the perception of reality, ability to emotionally regulate and make rational judgements don't have any link to violent behaviour is pretty post-modern and irrational. Secure psychiatric hospitals exist for a reason eta: there are specific mental illnesses that include increased propensity to violent behaviour in their symptoms

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:24 pm

It's also not sufficient evidence to make any statement of "it might not have been because he's Muslim, it might be because he's schizophrenic" anything other than bigotry. The vast majority of violence is carried out by men that are neither.

You're being obtuse. There's nothing bigoted in what I said. I quite clearly argued against assuming it being because the killer was a muslim, and there is a positive correlation between mental illness and violent crime established in literature. Not only that, but it's documented amongst other recent political murders.

This is not the place for an argument about bigotry. The motivation does matter but speculation gets us nowhere. The police will be on it like rats on sh.t. For once

But yeah, a man is dead and someone did it for a reason that has its own internal logic, I for one am happy to wait and see. In the meantime, why do MPs have less security at work than a shop clerk?

nezumi wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:41 pm

This is not the place for an argument about bigotry. The motivation does matter but speculation gets us nowhere. The police will be on it like rats on sh.t. For once

But yeah, a man is dead and someone did it for a reason that has its own internal logic, I for one am happy to wait and see. In the meantime, why do MPs have less security at work than a shop clerk?

To be precise, the counter-terrorism police are on this, which suggests what the initial suspicions are as to the motive.

I've been trying to work out of I think it's bigoted to assume the motivation was Islam after you find out the subject is a Muslim. I can't figure out mentally how the Bayes equation shakes out once you have that piece of information.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:15 pm

Mental illness is not a risk factor for causing violence. It is, however a risk factor for being on the receiving end

Psychosis is a risk factor for both.

http://www.hundredfamilies.org/the-scientific-evidence/

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:55 pm

nezumi wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:41 pm

This is not the place for an argument about bigotry. The motivation does matter but speculation gets us nowhere. The police will be on it like rats on sh.t. For once

But yeah, a man is dead and someone did it for a reason that has its own internal logic, I for one am happy to wait and see. In the meantime, why do MPs have less security at work than a shop clerk?

To be precise, the counter-terrorism police are on this, which suggests what the initial suspicions are as to the motive.

I've been trying to work out of I think it's bigoted to assume the motivation was Islam after you find out the subject is a Muslim. I can't figure out mentally how the Bayes equation shakes out once you have that piece of information.

Unfortunately that means little more than the offence was committed by a brown person*. Jo Cox's murder was clearly an act of terrorism, and was prosecuted as such, but, despite some media commentary discussing it as such at the time, the police were reluctant to describe it as such.

* For clarity, I'm not arguing that it's not terrorism, just that the police response is not a reliable indicator of anything.