Benefits of Brexit for Britain

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by Gfamily » Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:19 pm

Grumble wrote:
Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:55 pm
Very strange, the way the tail grows from its mouth.
That's how it lynx
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by Little waster » Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:24 am

Larry the Lexiteer finally breaks cover to tackle the consensus.

Tl;dr version: by every metric the UK economy is doing badly but if you wave your hands around a lot you can claim this isn't due to Brexit, it might be just the indirect consequence of having a government made up of the sort of fuckwits who thought Brexit would be a good idea ... which is TOTALLY different! Also COVID is just like a bad flu innit.

Sadly some technical glitch* at Guardian Towers meant the second part of the article where he actually pointed to a single solid Brexit benefit accidentally got deleted. :|

Well I'm convinced.

*Presumably the same glitch which blocks anybody commenting on Larry's little pearls of wisdom meaning the Gradgrinds readers are robbed of any chance to express their admiration and gratitude and back up his claims with the evidence he failed to provide.
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:00 pm

Little waster wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:24 am
Larry the Lexiteer finally breaks cover to tackle the consensus.

Tl;dr version: by every metric the UK economy is doing badly but if you wave your hands around a lot you can claim this isn't due to Brexit, it might be just the indirect consequence of having a government made up of the sort of fuckwits who thought Brexit would be a good idea ... which is TOTALLY different! Also COVID is just like a bad flu innit.

Sadly some technical glitch* at Guardian Towers meant the second part of the article where he actually pointed to a single solid Brexit benefit accidentally got deleted. :|

Well I'm convinced.

*Presumably the same glitch which blocks anybody commenting on Larry's little pearls of wisdom meaning the Gradgrinds readers are robbed of any chance to express their admiration and gratitude and back up his claims with the evidence he failed to provide.
Fortunately you're on a forum where you're welcome to provide an evidence based response to what is a fairly measured article with a number of salient points.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by Little waster » Tue Nov 08, 2022 4:40 pm

plodder wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:00 pm
Little waster wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:24 am
Larry the Lexiteer finally breaks cover to tackle the consensus.

Tl;dr version: by every metric the UK economy is doing badly but if you wave your hands around a lot you can claim this isn't due to Brexit, it might be just the indirect consequence of having a government made up of the sort of fuckwits who thought Brexit would be a good idea ... which is TOTALLY different! Also COVID is just like a bad flu innit.

Sadly some technical glitch* at Guardian Towers meant the second part of the article where he actually pointed to a single solid Brexit benefit accidentally got deleted. :|

Well I'm convinced.

*Presumably the same glitch which blocks anybody commenting on Larry's little pearls of wisdom meaning the Gradgrinds readers are robbed of any chance to express their admiration and gratitude and back up his claims with the evidence he failed to provide.
Fortunately you're on a forum where you're welcome to provide an evidence based response to what is a fairly measured one-sided half of an article with a number of salient points cherry-picked PRATTs.
FTFY

Now I could use my copious free-time to Fisk such a flawed article for the casual delectation of a couple-dozen people who almost certainly already agree with me.

Or I can point out, as I did in my OP, for the sake of argument lets just hand-wave away every single clear Brexit disadvantage; the collapse in trade volumes, the stagnation of the economy, the border issues and delays, the succession of Brexiteer mediocrities who would never have gotten within a 1000 miles of a Cabinet post without Brexit, the kamiKwazi attempt to use Brexit to turn the UK into Singapore-on-Thames resulting in us becoming North-Korea-with-Crisps etc. Done, OK. Don't even need to try.

We are then still left with the glaring absence of Larry identifying a single Brexit benefit, not even a contested one. Even if by some Herculean effort we could completely wipe clear the Disadvantage column there is absolutely nothing in the Advantage column to make any of it worthwhile. And that Herculean effort is only possible by ignoring some obvious facts, even the links Larry gave to support his argument tend to be of the sort of "this problem mightn't JUST be due to Brexit" not "this problem is definitely NOT to do with Brexit".

Which leaves us with what? The tired old Tankies' desperate argument that the Revolution is actually sound it was just implemented by fuckwits but next time we'll get it right, you just watch us.

Even if there is some counterfactual where choosing to stick trade barriers up with the largest, wealthiest market in Earth just because you hate brown people has an as-yet-unidentified Left-wing dimension where is the vehicle to make it a reality? He couldn't even identify one Lexiteer policy that we could now implement outside the EU nevermind point us towards the party or politician actually pushing it.

I despise Farage and his ilk but at least the Far Right have some inkling of what they actually want to achieve now we've turned our back on European Social Democracy to climb into bed with Putin, Erdogan, Trump and Bolsonaro. The Lexiteers give us ... nothing.
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by Formerly AvP » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:11 pm

plodder wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:00 pm
Little waster wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 8:24 am
Larry the Lexiteer finally breaks cover to tackle the consensus.

Tl;dr version: by every metric the UK economy is doing badly but if you wave your hands around a lot you can claim this isn't due to Brexit, it might be just the indirect consequence of having a government made up of the sort of fuckwits who thought Brexit would be a good idea ... which is TOTALLY different! Also COVID is just like a bad flu innit.

Sadly some technical glitch* at Guardian Towers meant the second part of the article where he actually pointed to a single solid Brexit benefit accidentally got deleted. :|

Well I'm convinced.

*Presumably the same glitch which blocks anybody commenting on Larry's little pearls of wisdom meaning the Gradgrinds readers are robbed of any chance to express their admiration and gratitude and back up his claims with the evidence he failed to provide.
Fortunately you're on a forum where you're welcome to provide an evidence based response to what is a fairly measured article with a number of salient points.
I read the article with interest. I was struck by a point which I thought was rhetorical rather than salient (and is present in other parts of the article).
Over the years, the argument from the anti-Brexit camp has changed. Where once it was “Brexit will crash the economy” it now is “the economy would be performing better were it not for Brexit”
This implies : (1) The anti-Brexit camp stated that "Brexit will crash the economy". (2) The economy has not crashed. (3) therefore the anti-Brexit camp was wrong.
But this logic statement requires that the anti-Brexit camp (all, or most of them) did indeed state that, in direct quotes, "Brexit will crash the economy". I think that would require a reference. I personally thought that there would be benefits and costs of Brexit, but I never thought it would, quote, "crash the economy". I personally thought that the costs would outweigh the benefits, and therefore was an 'anti-Brexiteer'. My recollection is that the 'anti-Brexit camp' also generally thought it would harm the economy, rather than crash it.

As it turns out, the version of Brexit we got was worse than what I thought we would get, and the harm has been correspondingly greater, while the benefits I anticipated have not yet arrived, nor show much signs of arriving. But the author's implication in this instance and elsewhere in the article, that the 'anti Brexit camp' was wrong about Brexit, seems to me to be a flawed syllogism.
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by nekomatic » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:19 pm

To be absolutely fair I think there was a fair proportion of people predicting Brexit would crash the economy, but that was in the context of what David Cameron had announced he would do in the event of a leave result which was to immediately invoke article 50 and stay in office to deal with the consequences. Of course he did neither of those things and so the effects were delayed rather than immediate.
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by dyqik » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:12 pm

Since Brexit didn't actually start until it overlapped with the pandemic and massive government intervention in the economy, it's really hard to show that it did or did not crash the economy.

Likewise, recent economic troubles are part of the Brexit that is still ongoing, with divergence from EU law still not fully happening. Plus the Brexit effect of boosting of the current Tory party that was elected to get Brexit done is still crashing the economy.

You can't yet say that Brexit did or did not crash the economy, because it's still going on.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by FlammableFlower » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:53 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:12 pm
Since Brexit didn't actually start until it overlapped with the pandemic and massive government intervention in the economy, it's really hard to show that it did or did not crash the economy.

Likewise, recent economic troubles are part of the Brexit that is still ongoing, with divergence from EU law still not fully happening. Plus the Brexit effect of boosting of the current Tory party that was elected to get Brexit done is still crashing the economy.

You can't yet say that Brexit did or did not crash the economy, because it's still going on.
It's like an incredibly long, very slow-motion car crash. At some point we will eventually reach a point where they can say:
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by IvanV » Wed Nov 09, 2022 10:36 am

nekomatic wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:19 pm
To be absolutely fair I think there was a fair proportion of people predicting Brexit would crash the economy, but that was in the context of what David Cameron had announced he would do in the event of a leave result which was to immediately invoke article 50 and stay in office to deal with the consequences. Of course he did neither of those things and so the effects were delayed rather than immediate.
The forecasts of crashes were on the basis of a very hard, sudden, near-term Brexit, and then the prior effect of the market knowing that coming. In practice, the market correctly believed that a sudden, hard, near-term Brexit wasn't a likely scenario, and so didn't create the prior crash that was predicated on them believing that.

The standard, much quoted, estimate is that it has cost us about 5% on GDP/cap. Estimates at the time mostly ranged from about 3% to 8%. But the range was in large part because of uncertainty over hard the Brexit might be. Although we have had, in a formal sense, a pretty hard Brexit, it looks like they negotiated roughly half of the potentially worst consequences out. Which I think is probably what you might guess. The manifestation of that 5% reduction has been concealed by Covid, but it shows itself as a lesser recovery from Covid than other nations experienced.

Historically such an economic shock would have hurt through unemployment. But we had the Covid shock which, even without Brexit, would have created many of the same issues. And then the unprecedented fiscal response to that. So when Covid was dealt with/accommodated, Brexit manifested to a degree in the form of not everything being put back together. That was both rather concealing and smeared the Brexit shock. And now it seems the British labour market is sufficiently flexible the reduction has mainly come out in the form of lower living standards rather than higher unemployment. The British economy seems to have an ability to offer lots of sh.t jobs, and there's a part of the labour force that can seemingly remove itself from the labour force when it doesn't like the look of them.

But now we are going to have additional economic difficulties, and our lower economic strength means it is going to hurt more.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by dyqik » Wed Nov 09, 2022 10:57 am

A, if not the, major effect of CoVID over here is a massive reduction in the availability of labour and reduction in unemployment - to the point that businesses are having trouble reopening and expanding post pandemic. That effect if it occurred in the UK would more than mask any reduction in demand for labour due to Brexit.

The best way to measure that is probably to look at wage increases vs other countries at the lower end of the jobs market.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:15 am

well, there are lots of metrics to compare the UK with other countries, some of which are explored in the article.
There is no dispute that the UK has some serious economic problems – including a chronic trade deficit and a poor record for investment – but they predate the Brexit vote in 2016. Britain has not run a surplus on trade in goods since the early 1980s, and wages adjusted for inflation have barely grown since the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Had the economy been firing on all cylinders in 2016, it seems unlikely more than 17 million people would have voted to leave the EU.

Britain is not the only country facing labour shortages. The German government said earlier this year it was cutting red tape to make it easier to recruit workers from Turkey, and its big industrial sector trade union, IG Metall, has put in a claim for an 8% increase. France reported 300,000 unfilled vacancies in its hospitality, with a similar picture in Spain. According to the Office for National Statistics, at the time of the 2016 referendum there were 2,335,000 people born in other EU countries employed in the UK. At the latest count, this total stood at 2,389,000. The number is down slightly on the peak of 2,508,000 in early 2020 but there has been no mass exodus of EU workers.

Nor is the UK alone in facing cost of living pressures. The annual inflation rate for the 19-nation eurozone currently stands at 10.7%, higher than the UK’s 10.1%. US inflation peaked at just over 9% in the summer.

The European Central Bank is pushing up interest rates because it is worried that tight labour markets will lead to a wage-price spiral; so is the Federal Reserve in the US. The upward pressures on inflation are caused by the pandemic, the supply-chain bottlenecks that followed the pandemic, and by the failure of central banks to act quickly enough when problems first started to emerge. The whole of Europe is facing recession this winter, with Germany in particular paying a heavy price for its dependence on Russian gas.
The writer of the article references this report which unfortunately is hosted on a website with a big union jack on it which I'm sure will be a huge issue for many of you. However it includes lots of numbers and statistics that suggest that Brexit has so far been meh at most. By all means feel free to engage with the detail if you insist on having strong opinions on all this stuff.

https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/w ... k-economy/

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by dyqik » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:21 am

That's not really contradicting the point I am making. Brexit is economically a big problem, but it's been spread out over time enough that it overlapped with the pandemic, which is a once a century economic disruption.

The pandemic and subsequent economic effects are a really big deal, largely unimaginable at the time the descriptions of Brexit as an economic disaster were being made. That doesn't make the quantitative analysis wrong, but it does change the qualitative language a bit.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:41 am

dyqik wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:21 am
That's not really contradicting the point I am making. Brexit is economically a big problem, but it's been spread out over time enough that it overlapped with the pandemic, which is a once a century economic disruption.

The pandemic and subsequent economic effects are a really big deal, largely unimaginable at the time the descriptions of Brexit as an economic disaster were being made. That doesn't make the quantitative analysis wrong, but it does change the qualitative language a bit.
Well it does if your point is "I'm just going to shuffle these goalposts around a bit because reasons, but trust me, it's bound to be bad".

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by Little waster » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:41 am

plodder wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:15 am
However it includes lots of numbers and statistics that suggest that Brexit has so far been meh at most
I'll be sure to explain that to my CEO this afternoon when we are meeting to discuss how we handle the collapse in our sales to the Eurozone and our ongoing difficulties recruiting skilled staff to replace all the Europeans who have left.

And again for the third time (or more like three thousandth) can you or anyone else point me at a single f.cking benefit of any sort to even vaguely compensate for the ongoing shitstorm? 6 years and counting.
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by dyqik » Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:10 pm

plodder wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:41 am
dyqik wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:21 am
That's not really contradicting the point I am making. Brexit is economically a big problem, but it's been spread out over time enough that it overlapped with the pandemic, which is a once a century economic disruption.

The pandemic and subsequent economic effects are a really big deal, largely unimaginable at the time the descriptions of Brexit as an economic disaster were being made. That doesn't make the quantitative analysis wrong, but it does change the qualitative language a bit.
Well it does if your point is "I'm just going to shuffle these goalposts around a bit because reasons, but trust me, it's bound to be bad".
Sorry, I'm not following you. You don't seem to actually be saying anything here.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:18 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:10 pm
plodder wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:41 am
dyqik wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:21 am
That's not really contradicting the point I am making. Brexit is economically a big problem, but it's been spread out over time enough that it overlapped with the pandemic, which is a once a century economic disruption.

The pandemic and subsequent economic effects are a really big deal, largely unimaginable at the time the descriptions of Brexit as an economic disaster were being made. That doesn't make the quantitative analysis wrong, but it does change the qualitative language a bit.
Well it does if your point is "I'm just going to shuffle these goalposts around a bit because reasons, but trust me, it's bound to be bad".
Sorry, I'm not following you. You don't seem to actually be saying anything here.
Frankly neither do you. You say that economically Brexit is a "big problem" but there's evidence to suggest it isn't.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by dyqik » Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:43 pm

plodder wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:18 pm
dyqik wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:10 pm
plodder wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:41 am


Well it does if your point is "I'm just going to shuffle these goalposts around a bit because reasons, but trust me, it's bound to be bad".
Sorry, I'm not following you. You don't seem to actually be saying anything here.
Frankly neither do you. You say that economically Brexit is a "big problem" but there's evidence to suggest it isn't.
My point is that you haven't said what you mean by "big" when you say there's evidence that Brexit isn't a big problem.

Is it as big a problem as CoVID on a three year time scale? No, probably not. Is it a big problem on a twenty year time scale? Probably yes.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by JQH » Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:39 pm

No benefit to Britain as a whole but I can think of one benefit to me and indeed anyone else whose pension is paid by the local government superannuation fund; George Osborne ceased to be Chancellor and his plan to steal our pension fund to pay for infrastructure projects was kicked into the long grass.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:09 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:43 pm


My point is that you haven't said what you mean by "big" when you say there's evidence that Brexit isn't a big problem.

Is it as big a problem as CoVID on a three year time scale? No, probably not. Is it a big problem on a twenty year time scale? Probably yes.
mate I was quoting *you*. I've stopped having strong opinions on this rubbish because it's all becoming increasingly murky. However I do expect people with strong opinions to be able to back up what they're saying in the face of evidence to the contrary. If that newspaper article or flag shagger's report is bollocks (and essentially you and others are claiming it is) then explain why or pipe down.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by dyqik » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:15 pm

plodder wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:09 pm
dyqik wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:43 pm


My point is that you haven't said what you mean by "big" when you say there's evidence that Brexit isn't a big problem.

Is it as big a problem as CoVID on a three year time scale? No, probably not. Is it a big problem on a twenty year time scale? Probably yes.
mate I was quoting *you*. I've stopped having strong opinions on this rubbish because it's all becoming increasingly murky. However I do expect people with strong opinions to be able to back up what they're saying in the face of evidence to the contrary. If that newspaper article or flag shagger's report is bollocks (and essentially you and others are claiming it is) then explain why or pipe down.
I was specifically making a relative judgement of scale, which you removed the context from when quoting. I've explained why I think it's too murky to conclude that Brexit was not a problem on the scale predicted for a rapid Brexit in 2015/16. Firstly because a rapid Brexit didn't happen, and then because the Brexit that did happen coincided with a massive unforeseen change in the economic environment. My other point is that that massive unforeseen change in the global economy moved the goalposts for what is now considered a "big" problem.

You're supporting a specific claim that Brexit predictions were wrong, so I expect you to produce evidence and methods that that article is correct, and that the complications that I, LW and Ivan been talking about are not an issue, or to pipe down.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:29 pm

oh ok it's that. yuck.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by Little waster » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:42 pm

plodder wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:09 pm
flag shagger's report is bollocks
Trussonomics Will Work by Robert Lee 1/10/22
Oh dear.

A quick glance at the titles of their other "briefings" doesn't fill me with much confidence about any of their other predictions.
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:26 pm

pearls of wisdom for which we are grateful

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:03 am

Context.

Image

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