Benefits of Brexit for Britain

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Gfamily
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by Gfamily » Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:41 pm

plodder wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:32 pm
https://www.ft.com/content/021c629d-585 ... 5f0eb65a35
Paywalled
Not really - do a google search for "Brexit blamed as UK misses out on global trade rebound" and you'll get a non paywalled link to the article

Worth reading the article
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:12 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:41 pm
plodder wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:32 pm
https://www.ft.com/content/021c629d-585 ... 5f0eb65a35
Paywalled
Not really - do a google search for "Brexit blamed as UK misses out on global trade rebound" and you'll get a non paywalled link to the article

Worth reading the article
Thanks - the title wasn’t in the URL. This is more what we need although I note the OBR are also saying it’s early days.

Also that article and the OBR report was written 8 months ago. We’ve had Truss since then…

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by jimbob » Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:42 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:40 pm
plodder wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:32 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 6:50 pm
Paywalled
https://obr.uk/box/the-latest-evidence- ... -uk-trade/

Also Chart 1
Image
plodder wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:12 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:41 pm
plodder wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:32 pm
https://www.ft.com/content/021c629d-585 ... 5f0eb65a35
Paywalled
Not really - do a google search for "Brexit blamed as UK misses out on global trade rebound" and you'll get a non paywalled link to the article

Worth reading the article
Thanks - the title wasn’t in the URL. This is more what we need although I note the OBR are also saying it’s early days.

Also that article and the OBR report was written 8 months ago. We’ve had Truss since then…
And how does that affect the change the past?

You are shifting the goalposts. You asked for evidence and now you want different evidence. With no reason to explain your reasoning why this is likely to alter the story.
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by Gfamily » Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:23 pm

plodder's looking for evidence that goes to another school and we don't know them.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:48 am

Image
plodder wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:12 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:41 pm


Not really - do a google search for "Brexit blamed as UK misses out on global trade rebound" and you'll get a non paywalled link to the article

Worth reading the article
Thanks - the title wasn’t in the URL. This is more what we need although I note the OBR are also saying it’s early days.

Also that article and the OBR report was written 8 months ago. We’ve had Truss since then…
And how does that affect the change the past?

You are shifting the goalposts. You asked for evidence and now you want different evidence. With no reason to explain your reasoning why this is likely to alter the story.
I’m not. I’ll make a couple of points: the first being that the OBR report was in the spring and it made tentative conclusions. We all know what’s happened since then and brexit is hardly featured in the Nov 22 OBR forecast (google it) because of the chaos in the bond markets. My point being that the data is extremely messy. The UK GDP figures are all over the place.

Second point - there’s another thread here about the size of the state vs overall economy. In it Ivan has given a great list of structural problems with the way the UK conducts itself. Many of these have nothing to do with the EU or Brexit and appear to have got worse in recent years (PPE corruption being an example that springs to mind, or the government’s half arsed approach to doing, well, anything really over the past few years). This needs factoring in if we want to isolate Brexit as the cause of our woes.

Thirdly, it really is still early days. Just as with climate change where foolish people think every flood or heatwave is A SIGN THAT ITS HERE so with Brexit every statistical blip is imbued with great import. I’m someone who thinks Brexit will be death by a thousand cuts. I’m not expecting this to have a particularly strong signal yet especially given the chaos literally everywhere.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:57 am

Gfamily wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:23 pm
plodder's looking for evidence that goes to another school and we don't know them.
You’re getting a bit Mike Giggler there mate

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by philbo » Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:12 pm

plodder wrote:
Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:48 am
Second point - there’s another thread here about the size of the state vs overall economy. In it Ivan has given a great list of structural problems with the way the UK conducts itself. Many of these have nothing to do with the EU or Brexit and appear to have got worse in recent years (PPE corruption being an example that springs to mind, or the government’s half arsed approach to doing, well, anything really over the past few years). This needs factoring in if we want to isolate Brexit as the cause of our woes.
In which case, are we allowed to factor in that because of Brexit, the Tories had a purge of nearly all their rational, competent MPs in 2019; even in the couple of years before then the cabinet was majority Brexiteers with the ERG and the rest of the swivel-eyed ideologues wielding more power than such few brain cells should ever be allowed near?

The government's half-arsed approach to everything in the past few years can arguably be laid at the door of Brexit: everyone in power has had pretty much only that on their mind & very little clue as to how to run a country at all. They seem to think the Civil Service is working against Brexit (and therefore them as well), and so have either cleared out or are just ignoring many of the people who do.

Can we blame Brexit for the utterly pisspoor standard of the last few years of government? I would say that is a very reasonable assertion.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:32 pm

I think that is an entirely fair point. The b.llsh.t surrounding the whole endeavour has been suffocating and it managed to help the Labour Party eat itself, followed by the Tories. I also agree the high turnover of PMs is a direct consequence.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by jimbob » Sun Nov 20, 2022 4:28 pm

plodder wrote:
Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:48 am
Image
plodder wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:12 pm


Thanks - the title wasn’t in the URL. This is more what we need although I note the OBR are also saying it’s early days.

Also that article and the OBR report was written 8 months ago. We’ve had Truss since then…
And how does that affect the change the past?

You are shifting the goalposts. You asked for evidence and now you want different evidence. With no reason to explain your reasoning why this is likely to alter the story.
I’m not. I’ll make a couple of points: the first being that the OBR report was in the spring and it made tentative conclusions. We all know what’s happened since then and brexit is hardly featured in the Nov 22 OBR forecast (google it) because of the chaos in the bond markets. My point being that the data is extremely messy. The UK GDP figures are all over the place.

Second point - there’s another thread here about the size of the state vs overall economy. In it Ivan has given a great list of structural problems with the way the UK conducts itself. Many of these have nothing to do with the EU or Brexit and appear to have got worse in recent years (PPE corruption being an example that springs to mind, or the government’s half arsed approach to doing, well, anything really over the past few years). This needs factoring in if we want to isolate Brexit as the cause of our woes.

Thirdly, it really is still early days. Just as with climate change where foolish people think every flood or heatwave is A SIGN THAT ITS HERE so with Brexit every statistical blip is imbued with great import. I’m someone who thinks Brexit will be death by a thousand cuts. I’m not expecting this to have a particularly strong signal yet especially given the chaos literally everywhere.
What about the chart of business investment for the UK Vs The EU.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... in-britain

From 2019, so just the uncertainty around Brexit.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Sun Nov 20, 2022 4:44 pm

Again, it’s paywalled and I think the left hand graph only covers a few months? The right hand graph is about a questionnaire and is a pretty hopeless way of presenting whatever data they collected. I can only see a few paragraphs of text, but they are about how things aren’t as bad as some forecasters predicted.

What point are you trying to make with this copy pasta?

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by jimbob » Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:03 pm

There is plenty of data of brexit adversely affecting sectors of the economy as well as more anecdotal evidence of the red tape making it uneconomical for multiple specific companies to do business within the EU.

Pretending otherwise is silly.

Also Google is a thing.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:33 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:03 pm
There is plenty of data of brexit adversely affecting sectors of the economy as well as more anecdotal evidence of the red tape making it uneconomical for multiple specific companies to do business within the EU.

Pretending otherwise is silly.

Also Google is a thing.
Oh well in that case

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by Opti » Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:53 pm

Two pages of circular discussion about whether Brexit has demonstrably damaged the UK economy or not.
On a thread devoted to the benefits of Brexit. Still no mention of any. Oh well.
:roll:
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by Millennie Al » Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:38 pm

plodder wrote:
Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:48 am
Image
Just a comment on the graph on the left, and not on the actual subject. Why does the UK line bounce up and down so much when the others are much smoother?

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:02 am

My understanding is that economies are cyclical (I think 8 years for the UK - not sure why). However that graph is every few months so it could just be different political f.ck ups. The aggregated ones are smoother because aggregation.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by dyqik » Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:42 am

plodder wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:02 am
My understanding is that economies are cyclical (I think 8 years for the UK - not sure why). However that graph is every few months so it could just be different political f.ck ups. The aggregated ones are smoother because aggregation.
Economies probably aren't predictably or "naturally" cyclical, anymore than weather is (after correcting for annual seasonal effects). I would vote them as just complicated, with active feedback loops, some of which have electoral cycles as part of the feedback. In the US, that cycle is predictably exactly 4 years and multiples there of. In the UK, it's roughly 8-10 years because of elections getting called early to take advantage of economic conditions.

But with the government collapsing regularly due to Brexit, that cycle isn't necessarily going to continue.

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by jimbob » Mon Nov 21, 2022 7:38 am

Millennie Al wrote:
Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:38 pm
plodder wrote:
Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:48 am
Image
Just a comment on the graph on the left, and not on the actual subject. Why does the UK line bounce up and down so much when the others are much smoother?
Maybe because of accounting artefacts. Two four week and one five week months in each quarter?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by shpalman » Mon Nov 21, 2022 8:47 am

Opti wrote:
Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:53 pm
Two pages of circular discussion about whether Brexit has demonstrably damaged the UK economy or not.
On a thread devoted to the benefits of Brexit. Still no mention of any. Oh well.
:roll:
Good point, this is all off-topic, there's already a thread for poor Brexit outcomes.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by jimbob » Mon Nov 21, 2022 9:17 am

Nah, it's just that it's a negative vector
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by Gfamily » Mon Nov 21, 2022 9:30 am

jimbob wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 9:17 am
Nah, it's just that it's a negative vector
More like a complex vector - with an imaginary component
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Mon Nov 21, 2022 9:54 am

dyqik wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:42 am
plodder wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:02 am
My understanding is that economies are cyclical (I think 8 years for the UK - not sure why). However that graph is every few months so it could just be different political f.ck ups. The aggregated ones are smoother because aggregation.
Economies probably aren't predictably or "naturally" cyclical, anymore than weather is (after correcting for annual seasonal effects). I would vote them as just complicated, with active feedback loops, some of which have electoral cycles as part of the feedback. In the US, that cycle is predictably exactly 4 years and multiples there of. In the UK, it's roughly 8-10 years because of elections getting called early to take advantage of economic conditions.

But with the government collapsing regularly due to Brexit, that cycle isn't necessarily going to continue.
Yeah I’d agree however my point was that AIUI short term comparisons aren’t considered to be useful because the “cycles” of different economies are often out of sync (so if one is growing and one contracting at any given time that doesn’t necessarily tell you anything interesting)

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Mon Nov 21, 2022 11:14 am

Maybe not quite the right thread for it but germane to the discussion: an example of the kind of “doesn’t tell us what we want to hear but if we fiddle around a bit and squint really hard then I’m sure you’ll agree things are awful” bollocks that is everywhere at the moment. Bet you the conclusions are well within margins of error in any case.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenChu_/stat ... 2444557313

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by jimbob » Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:38 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 9:30 am
jimbob wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 9:17 am
Nah, it's just that it's a negative vector
More like a complex vector - with an imaginary component
I did actually think that, with the passport colour and UK instead of GB stickers being mostly neutral
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by jimbob » Mon Nov 21, 2022 5:38 pm

plodder wrote:
Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:33 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:03 pm
There is plenty of data of brexit adversely affecting sectors of the economy as well as more anecdotal evidence of the red tape making it uneconomical for multiple specific companies to do business within the EU.

Pretending otherwise is silly.

Also Google is a thing.
Oh well in that case
Here is my plotting of the data Normalised to Q12016, so just before the Brexit vote.

Image
From

https://data.oecd.org/trade/trade-in-go ... ator-chart
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Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain

Post by plodder » Mon Nov 21, 2022 6:07 pm

Well that’s self evident, thanks. I can now clearly see the point you were making, it’s all there. Lovely.

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