Page 16 of 18
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:41 pm
by Gfamily
Not really - do
a google search for "Brexit blamed as UK misses out on global trade rebound" and you'll get a non paywalled link to the article
Worth reading the article
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:12 pm
by plodder
Gfamily wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:41 pm
Not really - do
a google search for "Brexit blamed as UK misses out on global trade rebound" and you'll get a non paywalled link to the article
Worth reading the article
Thanks - the title wasn’t in the URL. This is more what we need although I note the OBR are also saying it’s early days.
Also that article and the OBR report was written 8 months ago. We’ve had Truss since then…
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:42 pm
by jimbob
plodder wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:12 pm
Gfamily wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:41 pm
Not really - do
a google search for "Brexit blamed as UK misses out on global trade rebound" and you'll get a non paywalled link to the article
Worth reading the article
Thanks - the title wasn’t in the URL. This is more what we need although I note the OBR are also saying it’s early days.
Also that article and the OBR report was written 8 months ago. We’ve had Truss since then…
And how does that affect the change the past?
You are shifting the goalposts. You asked for evidence and now you want different evidence. With no reason to explain your reasoning why this is likely to alter the story.
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:23 pm
by Gfamily
plodder's looking for evidence that goes to another school and we don't know them.
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:48 am
by plodder
plodder wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:12 pm
Gfamily wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:41 pm
Not really - do
a google search for "Brexit blamed as UK misses out on global trade rebound" and you'll get a non paywalled link to the article
Worth reading the article
Thanks - the title wasn’t in the URL. This is more what we need although I note the OBR are also saying it’s early days.
Also that article and the OBR report was written 8 months ago. We’ve had Truss since then…
And how does that affect the change the past?
You are shifting the goalposts. You asked for evidence and now you want different evidence. With no reason to explain your reasoning why this is likely to alter the story.
I’m not. I’ll make a couple of points: the first being that the OBR report was in the spring and it made tentative conclusions. We all know what’s happened since then and brexit is hardly featured in the Nov 22 OBR forecast (google it) because of the chaos in the bond markets. My point being that the data is extremely messy. The UK GDP figures are all over the place.
Second point - there’s another thread here about the size of the state vs overall economy. In it Ivan has given a great list of structural problems with the way the UK conducts itself. Many of these have nothing to do with the EU or Brexit and appear to have got worse in recent years (PPE corruption being an example that springs to mind, or the government’s half arsed approach to doing, well, anything really over the past few years). This needs factoring in if we want to isolate Brexit as the cause of our woes.
Thirdly, it really is still early days. Just as with climate change where foolish people think every flood or heatwave is A SIGN THAT ITS HERE so with Brexit every statistical blip is imbued with great import. I’m someone who thinks Brexit will be death by a thousand cuts. I’m not expecting this to have a particularly strong signal yet especially given the chaos literally everywhere.
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:57 am
by plodder
Gfamily wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:23 pm
plodder's looking for evidence that goes to another school and we don't know them.
You’re getting a bit Mike Giggler there mate
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:12 pm
by philbo
plodder wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:48 am
Second point - there’s another thread here about the size of the state vs overall economy. In it Ivan has given a great list of structural problems with the way the UK conducts itself. Many of these have nothing to do with the EU or Brexit and appear to have got worse in recent years (PPE corruption being an example that springs to mind, or the government’s half arsed approach to doing, well, anything really over the past few years). This needs factoring in if we want to isolate Brexit as the cause of our woes.
In which case, are we allowed to factor in that because of Brexit, the Tories had a purge of nearly all their rational, competent MPs in 2019; even in the couple of years before then the cabinet was majority Brexiteers with the ERG and the rest of the swivel-eyed ideologues wielding more power than such few brain cells should ever be allowed near?
The government's half-arsed approach to everything in the past few years can arguably be laid at the door of Brexit: everyone in power has had pretty much only that on their mind & very little clue as to how to run a country at all. They seem to think the Civil Service is working against Brexit (and therefore them as well), and so have either cleared out or are just ignoring many of the people who do.
Can we blame Brexit for the utterly pisspoor standard of the last few years of government? I would say that is a very reasonable assertion.
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:32 pm
by plodder
I think that is an entirely fair point. The b.llsh.t surrounding the whole endeavour has been suffocating and it managed to help the Labour Party eat itself, followed by the Tories. I also agree the high turnover of PMs is a direct consequence.
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2022 4:28 pm
by jimbob
plodder wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:48 am
plodder wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 10:12 pm
Thanks - the title wasn’t in the URL. This is more what we need although I note the OBR are also saying it’s early days.
Also that article and the OBR report was written 8 months ago. We’ve had Truss since then…
And how does that affect the change the past?
You are shifting the goalposts. You asked for evidence and now you want different evidence. With no reason to explain your reasoning why this is likely to alter the story.
I’m not. I’ll make a couple of points: the first being that the OBR report was in the spring and it made tentative conclusions. We all know what’s happened since then and brexit is hardly featured in the Nov 22 OBR forecast (google it) because of the chaos in the bond markets. My point being that the data is extremely messy. The UK GDP figures are all over the place.
Second point - there’s another thread here about the size of the state vs overall economy. In it Ivan has given a great list of structural problems with the way the UK conducts itself. Many of these have nothing to do with the EU or Brexit and appear to have got worse in recent years (PPE corruption being an example that springs to mind, or the government’s half arsed approach to doing, well, anything really over the past few years). This needs factoring in if we want to isolate Brexit as the cause of our woes.
Thirdly, it really is still early days. Just as with climate change where foolish people think every flood or heatwave is A SIGN THAT ITS HERE so with Brexit every statistical blip is imbued with great import. I’m someone who thinks Brexit will be death by a thousand cuts. I’m not expecting this to have a particularly strong signal yet especially given the chaos literally everywhere.
What about the chart of business investment for the UK Vs The EU.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... in-britain
From 2019, so just the uncertainty around Brexit.
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2022 4:44 pm
by plodder
Again, it’s paywalled and I think the left hand graph only covers a few months? The right hand graph is about a questionnaire and is a pretty hopeless way of presenting whatever data they collected. I can only see a few paragraphs of text, but they are about how things aren’t as bad as some forecasters predicted.
What point are you trying to make with this copy pasta?
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:03 pm
by jimbob
There is plenty of data of brexit adversely affecting sectors of the economy as well as more anecdotal evidence of the red tape making it uneconomical for multiple specific companies to do business within the EU.
Pretending otherwise is silly.
Also Google is a thing.
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:33 pm
by plodder
jimbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:03 pm
There is plenty of data of brexit adversely affecting sectors of the economy as well as more anecdotal evidence of the red tape making it uneconomical for multiple specific companies to do business within the EU.
Pretending otherwise is silly.
Also Google is a thing.
Oh well in that case
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:53 pm
by Opti
Two pages of circular discussion about whether Brexit has demonstrably damaged the UK economy or not.
On a thread devoted to the benefits of Brexit. Still no mention of any. Oh well.
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:38 pm
by Millennie Al
plodder wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:48 am
Just a comment on the graph on the left, and not on the actual subject. Why does the UK line bounce up and down so much when the others are much smoother?
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:02 am
by plodder
My understanding is that economies are cyclical (I think 8 years for the UK - not sure why). However that graph is every few months so it could just be different political f.ck ups. The aggregated ones are smoother because aggregation.
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:42 am
by dyqik
plodder wrote: ↑Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:02 am
My understanding is that economies are cyclical (I think 8 years for the UK - not sure why). However that graph is every few months so it could just be different political f.ck ups. The aggregated ones are smoother because aggregation.
Economies probably aren't predictably or "naturally" cyclical, anymore than weather is (after correcting for annual seasonal effects). I would vote them as just complicated, with active feedback loops, some of which have electoral cycles as part of the feedback. In the US, that cycle is predictably exactly 4 years and multiples there of. In the UK, it's roughly 8-10 years because of elections getting called early to take advantage of economic conditions.
But with the government collapsing regularly due to Brexit, that cycle isn't necessarily going to continue.
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2022 7:38 am
by jimbob
Millennie Al wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:38 pm
plodder wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:48 am
Just a comment on the graph on the left, and not on the actual subject. Why does the UK line bounce up and down so much when the others are much smoother?
Maybe because of accounting artefacts. Two four week and one five week months in each quarter?
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2022 8:47 am
by shpalman
Opti wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:53 pm
Two pages of circular discussion about whether Brexit has demonstrably damaged the UK economy or not.
On a thread devoted to the benefits of Brexit. Still no mention of any. Oh well.
Good point, this is all off-topic, there's already a
thread for poor Brexit outcomes.
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2022 9:17 am
by jimbob
Nah, it's just that it's a negative vector
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2022 9:30 am
by Gfamily
jimbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 21, 2022 9:17 am
Nah, it's just that it's a negative vector
More like a complex vector - with an imaginary component
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2022 9:54 am
by plodder
dyqik wrote: ↑Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:42 am
plodder wrote: ↑Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:02 am
My understanding is that economies are cyclical (I think 8 years for the UK - not sure why). However that graph is every few months so it could just be different political f.ck ups. The aggregated ones are smoother because aggregation.
Economies probably aren't predictably or "naturally" cyclical, anymore than weather is (after correcting for annual seasonal effects). I would vote them as just complicated, with active feedback loops, some of which have electoral cycles as part of the feedback. In the US, that cycle is predictably exactly 4 years and multiples there of. In the UK, it's roughly 8-10 years because of elections getting called early to take advantage of economic conditions.
But with the government collapsing regularly due to Brexit, that cycle isn't necessarily going to continue.
Yeah I’d agree however my point was that AIUI short term comparisons aren’t considered to be useful because the “cycles” of different economies are often out of sync (so if one is growing and one contracting at any given time that doesn’t necessarily tell you anything interesting)
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2022 11:14 am
by plodder
Maybe not quite the right thread for it but germane to the discussion: an example of the kind of “doesn’t tell us what we want to hear but if we fiddle around a bit and squint really hard then I’m sure you’ll agree things are awful” bollocks that is everywhere at the moment. Bet you the conclusions are well within margins of error in any case.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BenChu_/stat ... 2444557313
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:38 pm
by jimbob
Gfamily wrote: ↑Mon Nov 21, 2022 9:30 am
jimbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 21, 2022 9:17 am
Nah, it's just that it's a negative vector
More like a complex vector - with an imaginary component
I did actually think that, with the passport colour and UK instead of GB stickers being mostly neutral
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2022 5:38 pm
by jimbob
plodder wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 8:33 pm
jimbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 5:03 pm
There is plenty of data of brexit adversely affecting sectors of the economy as well as more anecdotal evidence of the red tape making it uneconomical for multiple specific companies to do business within the EU.
Pretending otherwise is silly.
Also Google is a thing.
Oh well in that case
Here is my plotting of the data Normalised to Q12016, so just before the Brexit vote.
From
https://data.oecd.org/trade/trade-in-go ... ator-chart
Re: Benefits of Brexit for Britain
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2022 6:07 pm
by plodder
Well that’s self evident, thanks. I can now clearly see the point you were making, it’s all there. Lovely.