Scrutable

Bavaria, with one of the highest covid caseloads in Germany, is closing bars and clubs, cancelling all Christmas markets...

here are three other Christmas markets you can take your covid infection to!

Don't go to Dresden though, f.ck's sake. Have you seen their numbers?

Austria is of course already planning a full lockdown having left it too late to talk about only locking down the unvaccinated. Or maybe it's a full lockdown, except for the vaccinated. I'm not sure.

Guess who's going to Dresden for Christmas...

It's not the best time of year to get a new wave...

The UK has shown some worrying signs in the last few days - jumped back to over 40,000. Potentially we could set a new record, beating the 50,000 of July. Even if just a temporary upswing, the lag to hospitalisations means the Covid wards will be getting busy in the second half of December to coincide with flu season.

But the cases, including across Europe, are still strongly weighted to children. Measures to shield the old and vulnerable from infectious school children could be a better approach than a general lockdown. Tell Grandma you're not visiting her for Sunday lunch, close the care homes to visitors again, wave from the end of the garden.

I've got major problems with the concept of forcing vaccinations on people like Austria. I've got less of a problem with giving them a tier 2 healthcare service if they get seriously ill with Covid. My proposal would be to look at an unvaccinated person's Facebook etc when they show up at hospital. If they've tweeted about it being a manufactured virus intended to scare, tell them to go home and not be scared when they get short of breath. If they've promoted de-wormer on Instagram, tell them to f.ck off and take de-wormer.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:03 pm

I've got major problems with the concept of forcing vaccinations on people like Austria. I've got less of a problem with giving them a tier 2 healthcare service if they get seriously ill with Covid.

In contrast to this astonishing proposal to give tier 1 healthcare only to the unvaccinated!!

https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2855

Pfizer has applied to the US Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorisation of its new antiviral PF-07321332 (to be marketed as Paxlovid), after promising early trial results indicated that it could cut hospital admissions by 89% among recently infected adults at high risk of severe illness who were unvaccinated. But the application for the treatment of unvaccinated people only could undermine the US immunisation effort, medical ethicists have warned, by rewarding people who ignored public health advice and penalising those who heeded it.

Dresden Striezelmarkt has just been cancelled.

I don’t really understand this decision, it’s an outdoor market. Cancelling it could push people into riskier indoor activities instead.

It was due to start in two days. The stalls are all set up and fully stocked. These businesses are going to go bust.

headshot wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:11 am

Dresden Striezelmarkt has just been cancelled.

I don’t really understand this decision, it’s an outdoor market. Cancelling it could push people into riskier indoor activities instead.

I don't think people are going to replace a trip to the Christmas market with a party. And the crowds at these things are pretty dense, with lots of mask-off eating and drinking. When 1% of the population is getting Covid every week people need to stay the f.ck at home.

Saxony has implemented the following until December 12th - but I imagine it will be extended:

Cancellation of all large events including Christmas markets.
Indoor cultural and leisure institutions (including gyms etc) closed.
Indoor meals and access to small shops and pubs for vaccinated or recovered (“2G”) only - and only between 6am - 8pm.
Nightclubs closed.
Cosmetic treatments (nails, massage etc) closed. Hair dressers remain open for 2G.
No alcohol to be consumed in public.
To go to work you have to be vaccinated, recovered or tested. (“3G”).
Closure of tourist accommodation - hotels, holiday apartments and campsite. (You can travel and stay in hotels for work).
Religious buildings open for 3G access.
Gatherings limited to 10 people and must be “local”.
Adult education and evening classes banned.
Curfew for unvaccinated people in hotspots (over 1000 cases per 100,000) between 10pm and 6am.

Schools and kindergarten stay open, but compulsory attendance has been suspended.

Looks like Frau HS won’t get to see her family again. They don’t have room for us, so we have to stay in a holiday let. We’ll have to see what happens after the 12th.

sTeamTraen wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:56 am

headshot wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:11 am

Dresden Striezelmarkt has just been cancelled.

I don’t really understand this decision, it’s an outdoor market. Cancelling it could push people into riskier indoor activities instead.

I don't think people are going to replace a trip to the Christmas market with a party. And the crowds at these things are pretty dense, with lots of mask-off eating and drinking. When 1% of the population is getting Covid every week people need to stay the f.ck at home.

It’s academic anyway, see above.

I wonder whether this 2G status thing in Germany is potentially driving infection rates higher.

The law there states that recovered people can have as much freedom as those who are fully vaccinated. Is there an unintended consequence where anti-vax people are purposefully getting infected to get their 2G status?

Saxony has one of the lowest rates of fully-vaccinated people* and it’s not an area that traditionally has high trust in federal institutions (they voted in vast majorities for the far right AfD party at the recent elections), so I wonder if something more sinister is going on with misinformation and fake news on social media.


*a number of Frau HS’s boomer relatives have refused the vaccine with some citing issues with vaccines in their youth - though this was when they were living behind the iron curtain. Some of these are in their 80s with extremely poor health.

headshot wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 20, 2021 11:18 am

I wonder whether this 2G status thing in Germany is potentially driving infection rates higher.

The law there states that recovered people can have as much freedom as those who are fully vaccinated. Is there an unintended consequence where anti-vax people are purposefully getting infected to get their 2G status?

... at antivax/anti-pass protests?

Depends if they're the ones who think covid is a total hoax, or if it's just not that bad. Maybe some of them already had mild or asymptomatic infections at the beginning of this year but the 6-month Green Pass would have expired by now.

Or maybe they're just having the typical "well now I am not doing it" reaction to being told to do something they may or may not have done. But then in Austria a whole load of people suddenly went to the vaccination hubs when the the rules started changing. So on balance I think laws* which make being unvaccinated increasingly disadvantageous have been working to increase uptake a bit.

headshot wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 20, 2021 11:18 am

Saxony has one of the lowest rates of fully-vaccinated people* and it’s not an area that traditionally has high trust in federal institutions (they voted in vast majorities for the far right AfD party at the recent elections), so I wonder if something more sinister is going on with misinformation and fake news on social media.


*a number of Frau HS’s boomer relatives have refused the vaccine with some citing issues with vaccines in their youth - though this was when they were living behind the iron curtain. Some of these are in their 80s with extremely poor health.

The iron curtain thing might be a good point, given the situation with ex-Eastern Bloc states. Doesn't really explain Austria that well though.

* - as opposed to the medical/biological facts which make being unvaccinated disadvantageous i.e. being more likely to end up in hospital and/or die when you catch covid, and at this point in Europe it's really looking like when not if.

After this wave crests, everybody is going to have some kind of immunity. Whether that will affect future waves, I don't know.
I wouldn't be too optimistic, as being optimistic about covid simply means you are going to be disappointed.

headshot wrote: ↑

Sat Nov 20, 2021 9:07 am

It’s academic anyway, see above.

Fingers crossed for Frau HS.

Some twitter about what's going wrong in Austria

TLDR: 8 of 9 states dropped their mask mandates.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:33 am

Some twitter about what's going wrong in Austria

TLDR: 8 of 9 states dropped their mask mandates.

Just like the UK. Well England anyway. We have a slightly higher vax rate. 67% vs 64%.

Tell me why this isn't going to happen here.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 4:01 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:33 am

Some twitter about what's going wrong in Austria

TLDR: 8 of 9 states dropped their mask mandates.

Just like the UK. Well England anyway. We have a slightly higher vax rate. 67% vs 64%.

Tell me why this isn't going to happen here.

Because it happened already in July?

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 4:25 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 4:01 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:33 am

Some twitter about what's going wrong in Austria

Just like the UK. Well England anyway. We have a slightly higher vax rate. 67% vs 64%.

Tell me why this isn't going to happen here.

Because it happened already in July?

Maybe. Austria had an April peak that we didn't have.
Just eye balling the area under the curve plots from owid, it looks like we are "winning". Austria is catching up very fast.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 4:57 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 4:25 pm

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 4:01 pm

Just like the UK. Well England anyway. We have a slightly higher vax rate. 67% vs 64%.

Tell me why this isn't going to happen here.

Because it happened already in July?

Maybe. Austria had an April peak that we didn't have.
Just eye balling the area under the curve plots from owid, it looks like we are "winning". Austria is catching up very fast.

At OWID you can plot population-normalized cumulative cases and then compare the number now with the number at, say, the beginning of the year. In this case Austria and the UK are easy to compare because they had a similar number of total cases per population at that point. The April peak only took Austria slightly higher than the UK's level and looks small compared to the scale of the more recent increase.
I'll include the graph but it's much better to follow the link - highlighting each country makes it easier to follow.

Thanks.

What do we reckon the ratio of actual cases to confirmed cases is, though?

2 to 1? 3 to 1? Need to cover first wave failure to test, plus 50% asymptomatic, plus morons with symptoms not testing.

I'd say 10 million official cases is 30 million actual. Getting on for 50% of the UK.

80% vaccination plus 50% infection of the unvaccinated gives a load of protection, even though herd immunity is never possible due to vaccine effectiveness.

lpm wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 6:02 pm

What do we reckon the ratio of actual cases to confirmed cases is, though?

2 to 1? 3 to 1? Need to cover first wave failure to test, plus 50% asymptomatic, plus morons with symptoms not testing.

I'd say 10 million official cases is 30 million actual. Getting on for 50% of the UK.

80% vaccination plus 50% infection of the unvaccinated gives a load of protection, even though herd immunity is never possible due to vaccine effectiveness.

The first wave failure to test doesn't matter if you're comparing total cases now with total cases at the beginning of this year.

The rest of it matters less as long the countries which you're comparing have similar ratios.

Antibody surveys give an idea of the fraction of the population which has antibodies from the vaccine and/or the virus itself (these can be distinguished).

Within Europe we're seeing results which seem to quite sensitively depend on proportion vaccinated, or maybe proportion vaccinated just correlates with what sort of mandates are in place and how people are following them or if they'd rather all gather in the city and shout and break stuff.

In a recent article about Saxony’s woes, I read that the regional health chief said “cases are probably three times as high as those reported”. I’m not sure what evidence he was using to support that claim.

headshot wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:07 pm

In a recent article about Saxony’s woes, I read that the regional health chief said “cases are probably three times as high as those reported”. I’m not sure what evidence he was using to support that claim.

I've seen five times quoted, but in the UK where we test a lot, three might be more reasonable.

With respect to vaccination coverage, its not the just the proportion vaccinated, but the age distribution of the vaccinated. If you still have 10% of your over 50s unvaccinated, that may not seem like a huge number, but that is the cohort most at risk that fills up the hospitals.

Then of course there is the time factor as vaccine immunity wanes quickly. A country that just finished a mass vaccination campaign will be in a better position than another that has been vaccinated for months.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:35 pm

With respect to vaccination coverage, its not the just the proportion vaccinated, but the age distribution of the vaccinated. If you still have 10% of your over 50s unvaccinated, that may not seem like a huge number, but that is the cohort most at risk that fills up the hospitals.

Also important is the "one-minus" effect. A country with 70% of >12s vaccinated (i.e., 30% unvaccinated; Austria isn't much higher than that) is 3x as badly off as one with 90% of >12s vaccinated (e.g., Spain).

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:35 pm

headshot wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:07 pm

In a recent article about Saxony’s woes, I read that the regional health chief said “cases are probably three times as high as those reported”. I’m not sure what evidence he was using to support that claim.

I've seen five times quoted, but in the UK where we test a lot, three might be more reasonable.

With respect to vaccination coverage, its not the just the proportion vaccinated, but the age distribution of the vaccinated. If you still have 10% of your over 50s unvaccinated, that may not seem like a huge number, but that is the cohort most at risk that fills up the hospitals.

This is definitely an issue an Italy, which makes our CFR rather worse than the UK's. The relatively good coverage amongst younger people may have helped take the edge off the case rate though.

Cases started coming up again in mid October but I don't know if that's connected to in-presence working, or dance floor socialization (it's not just due to more testing for obligatory Green Passes). Outbreaks don't get on the news anymore.

Herainestold wrote: ↑

Sun Nov 21, 2021 7:35 pm

Then of course there is the time factor as vaccine immunity wanes quickly. A country that just finished a mass vaccination campaign will be in a better position than another that has been vaccinated for months.

Not that quickly, but then the UK did use rather a lot of AstraZeneca on older people.