2020 No. 10 Christmas Party!

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monkey
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Re: 2020 No. 10 Christmas Party!

Post by monkey » Tue May 10, 2022 1:15 pm

nekomatic wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 9:12 am
monkey wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 1:04 am
The trouble is they are not attracting voters in places they need to (who have been on a long swing towards the Tories)
This analysis suggests that’s not necessarily true, and while it’s only an analysis, and says something I’d like to hear so should be treated with great caution, it is possible that the supposed inexorable march of the northern working class towards populist conservatism could falter as the shine starts to wear off Boris and his ‘done’ Brexit.
The shine has worn off Johnson already, but people aren't going back to Labour, they're staying at home instead. Those are voters that could go either way in a GE if Johnson gets the boot first.

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dyqik
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Re: 2020 No. 10 Christmas Party!

Post by dyqik » Tue May 10, 2022 1:24 pm

monkey wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 1:15 pm
nekomatic wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 9:12 am
monkey wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 1:04 am
The trouble is they are not attracting voters in places they need to (who have been on a long swing towards the Tories)
This analysis suggests that’s not necessarily true, and while it’s only an analysis, and says something I’d like to hear so should be treated with great caution, it is possible that the supposed inexorable march of the northern working class towards populist conservatism could falter as the shine starts to wear off Boris and his ‘done’ Brexit.
The shine has worn off Johnson already, but people aren't going back to Labour, they're staying at home instead. Those are voters that could go either way in a GE if Johnson gets the boot first.
That's how swings to the other party start. Some get disappointed in their previous choice and stay home and/or start listening to what the other side are actually say, some that stayed home last time get angry and go out to vote against.

Most people don't decide overnight to switch from Tory to Labour or vice versa on a national level, they decide that they don't really trust their last choice, or the party they belong to, then they decide whether to vote for them again, then whether to vote at all, and then they decide if they can vote for who they voted against last time, if they will vote for a third party, or if they will vote tactically against who they voted for last time.

monkey
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Re: 2020 No. 10 Christmas Party!

Post by monkey » Tue May 10, 2022 2:07 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 1:24 pm
monkey wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 1:15 pm
nekomatic wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 9:12 am


This analysis suggests that’s not necessarily true, and while it’s only an analysis, and says something I’d like to hear so should be treated with great caution, it is possible that the supposed inexorable march of the northern working class towards populist conservatism could falter as the shine starts to wear off Boris and his ‘done’ Brexit.
The shine has worn off Johnson already, but people aren't going back to Labour, they're staying at home instead. Those are voters that could go either way in a GE if Johnson gets the boot first.
That's how swings to the other party start. Some get disappointed in their previous choice and stay home and/or start listening to what the other side are actually say, some that stayed home last time get angry and go out to vote against.

Most people don't decide overnight to switch from Tory to Labour or vice versa on a national level, they decide that they don't really trust their last choice, or the party they belong to, then they decide whether to vote for them again, then whether to vote at all, and then they decide if they can vote for who they voted against last time, if they will vote for a third party, or if they will vote tactically against who they voted for last time.
Yes, but my main point is that Labour need to give a reason for people to go from the "don't know" column to the "Labour" column. Apathy and tactical voting might get us a minority Labour government, which would be a good thing, but I want to see a Labour majority.

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Re: 2020 No. 10 Christmas Party!

Post by headshot » Tue May 10, 2022 3:40 pm

monkey wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 1:15 pm
people aren't going back to Labour, they're staying at home instead.
These were local elections. Twas ever thus.

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