2020 No. 10 Christmas Party!

[monkey]

The trouble is they are not attracting voters in places they need to (who have been on a long swing towards the Tories)

This analysis suggests that’s not necessarily true, and while it’s only an analysis, and says something I’d like to hear so should be treated with great caution, it is possible that the supposed inexorable march of the northern working class towards populist conservatism could falter as the shine starts to wear off Boris and his ‘done’ Brexit.

The shine has worn off Johnson already, but people aren't going back to Labour, they're staying at home instead. Those are voters that could go either way in a GE if Johnson gets the boot first.

[dyqik]

The trouble is they are not attracting voters in places they need to (who have been on a long swing towards the Tories)

This analysis suggests that’s not necessarily true, and while it’s only an analysis, and says something I’d like to hear so should be treated with great caution, it is possible that the supposed inexorable march of the northern working class towards populist conservatism could falter as the shine starts to wear off Boris and his ‘done’ Brexit.

The shine has worn off Johnson already, but people aren't going back to Labour, they're staying at home instead. Those are voters that could go either way in a GE if Johnson gets the boot first.

That's how swings to the other party start. Some get disappointed in their previous choice and stay home and/or start listening to what the other side are actually say, some that stayed home last time get angry and go out to vote against.

Most people don't decide overnight to switch from Tory to Labour or vice versa on a national level, they decide that they don't really trust their last choice, or the party they belong to, then they decide whether to vote for them again, then whether to vote at all, and then they decide if they can vote for who they voted against last time, if they will vote for a third party, or if they will vote tactically against who they voted for last time.

[monkey]

This analysis suggests that’s not necessarily true, and while it’s only an analysis, and says something I’d like to hear so should be treated with great caution, it is possible that the supposed inexorable march of the northern working class towards populist conservatism could falter as the shine starts to wear off Boris and his ‘done’ Brexit.

The shine has worn off Johnson already, but people aren't going back to Labour, they're staying at home instead. Those are voters that could go either way in a GE if Johnson gets the boot first.

That's how swings to the other party start. Some get disappointed in their previous choice and stay home and/or start listening to what the other side are actually say, some that stayed home last time get angry and go out to vote against.

Most people don't decide overnight to switch from Tory to Labour or vice versa on a national level, they decide that they don't really trust their last choice, or the party they belong to, then they decide whether to vote for them again, then whether to vote at all, and then they decide if they can vote for who they voted against last time, if they will vote for a third party, or if they will vote tactically against who they voted for last time.

Yes, but my main point is that Labour need to give a reason for people to go from the "don't know" column to the "Labour" column. Apathy and tactical voting might get us a minority Labour government, which would be a good thing, but I want to see a Labour majority.

[headshot]

people aren't going back to Labour, they're staying at home instead.

These were local elections. Twas ever thus.

[Stranger Mouse]

All types of confusion on the announcement today but this seems to clarify it.

https://twitter.com/lizziedearden/statu ... Dgm35Fsn_Q

Following understandable confusion about the numbers given out this morning, the Met has now issued a clarification

The 126 fines were given out
- over events on 8 days, but some days had more than 1 event
- to 83 people
- 53 FPNs were issued to 35 men and 73 FPNs to 48 women

[Bird on a Fire]

Sue Gray wants to name civil servants who broke Covid rules at lockdown parties in and around Downing Street.

The senior civil servant is now free to publish her full report on the parties after the Metropolitan Police wound up their investigation.

The Met have not named any of the 83 individuals who have been fined.

But Ms Gray is contacting the ones she wants to name, ahead of the publication of her report, which is expected to be next week.

Those expected to be named by Ms Gray have been given until 5pm on Sunday to respond to information she intends to publish about them, it is understood.

A source familiar with the report told the BBC her assessment could be that there were trails of evidence to suggest the prime minister was badly advised, and not necessarily aware of what events he was stumbling into.

Sounds like he was permanently shitfaced?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-61520212

[FlammableFlower]

Heh - Cummings is threatening a deluge of photos showing the Johnson has been lying, not just to colleagues, but also the police.

[Stranger Mouse]

Heh - Cummings is threatening a deluge of photos showing the Johnson has been lying, not just to colleagues, but also the police.

Yeah but he threatens lots of things that never happen.

[shpalman]

Heh - Cummings is threatening a deluge of photos showing the Johnson has been lying, not just to colleagues, but also the police.

Yeah but he threatens lots of things that never happen.

And it's not like Johnson being a liar would be news to anyone.

Why didn't Cummings give this evidence to the police in the first place?

[jimbob]

Heh - Cummings is threatening a deluge of photos showing the Johnson has been lying, not just to colleagues, but also the police.

Yeah but he threatens lots of things that never happen.

And it's not like Johnson being a liar would be news to anyone.

Why didn't Cummings give this evidence to the police in the first place?

Ego

He wants to be the kingmaker/breaker

[shpalman]

Yeah but he threatens lots of things that never happen.

And it's not like Johnson being a liar would be news to anyone.

Why didn't Cummings give this evidence to the police in the first place?

Ego

He wants to be the kingmaker/breaker

Interesting non-standard spelling of leverage/blackmail there.

[Stranger Mouse]

PHOTOS!!!

https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status ... c6LOvJ9AOg

[El Pollo Diablo]

I'm not sure Cummings was saying he was the person with the photos, my reading was that he believes other people have them and will release them.

[Tessa K]

I'm not sure Cummings was saying he was the person with the photos, my reading was that he believes other people have them and will release them.

That was my understanding, otherwise he'd be guilty of witholding evidence.

[Stranger Mouse]

I'm not sure Cummings was saying he was the person with the photos, my reading was that he believes other people have them and will release them.

That was my reading too although I take everything he says with a pinch of salt.

First photos are coming out though. This is one of the law breaking events that Boris Johnson attended without being fined

https://twitter.com/bethrigby/status/15 ... rOzqRg4-rw

ETA So the question is how much worse can the photos get?

94706A90-4843-4779-BD5C-A3ED65A097E0.png (312.11 KiB) Viewed 4355 times

[monkey]

I'm not sure Cummings was saying he was the person with the photos, my reading was that he believes other people have them and will release them.

If I was Cummings I wouldn't be telling everyone I was the leaker if I was. Tories expect loyalty from their people, you're supposed to keep your plots and schemes behind closed doors. So even if they want rid of Boris, any open machinations would not be good for Cummings keeping his influence. (Like the traitor in a film getting killed by the side they were traitoring for because you can't trust a traitor.)

[lpm]

I can't quite work out what's on the table, apart from all the bottles of booze. There's a gin bottle. Somewhat amusingly there's hand sanitiser and anti-bacterial wipes. Is the blue thing a packet of biscuits? What are the cartons by Boris's leg?

[monkey]

I can't quite work out what's on the table, apart from all the bottles of booze. There's a gin bottle. Somewhat amusingly there's hand sanitiser and anti-bacterial wipes. Is the blue thing a packet of biscuits? What are the cartons by Boris's leg?

You forgot the dispatch boxes full of booze.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Yes, there's a packet of biscuits - they look like Nice biscuits or possibly shortbread. I reckon that the carton thing is a salad or summat like that. One of the plastic cups on the table appears to have a bright green drink inside it (creme de menthe?). Also notable is the red box just sat there.

Of the six bottles of wine that are visible, only one is unopened.

[lpm]

[Stranger Mouse]

Yes, there's a packet of biscuits - they look like Nice biscuits or possibly shortbread. I reckon that the carton thing is a salad or summat like that. One of the plastic cups on the table appears to have a bright green drink inside it (creme de menthe?). Also notable is the red box just sat there.

Of the six bottles of wine that are visible, only one is unopened.

It’s the gin/vodka/whatever that gets me.

[warumich]

Peter Bone reckons it doesn't look at all like my bathroom lights are broken.


Anyway, I will not be providing a running commentary on the situation.

[Stranger Mouse]

Reporting that Boris Johnson put pressure on Sue Gray to spike the report

https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status ... dDSkgrGdIA

[Woodchopper]

It’s the gin/vodka/whatever that gets me.

Yes. I have been to work events where alcohol was served. But they stuck to serving wine or beer.

[Tessa K]

Apparently he was working and just popped in. Of course, as PM he should have told them they were all breaking the law and must leave immediately.