Scrutable

lpm wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 2:20 pm

There's no replacement for Starmer. It'll be a disaster if he goes.

Nah, not a disaster. Not unless Dianne Abbott, or similar is elected, which would be unlikely.

Better than Starmer might be difficult, but as good as Starmer isn't, because Starmer isn't that good.

The problem for Labour would be the splits that a contest would make worse. Labour don't win with a split party.

Middle class middle income England is OK with Starmer. Don't forget the remain moderates who rejected Corbyn and voted Johnson instead, but who will be content with a dull lawyer as PM.

And Starmer is who will win seats for LibDems in southern England. It's how the blue wall gets broken.

lpm wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 2:56 pm

Middle class middle income England is OK with Starmer. Don't forget the remain moderates who rejected Corbyn and voted Johnson instead, but who will be content with a dull lawyer as PM.

And Starmer is who will win seats for LibDems in southern England. It's how the blue wall gets broken.

Yes. Fear of Corbyn in the South and contempt for him in the North.

Without that, and with a competent Labour leader who is not scary, a lot of people in the South would feel able to vote against the Tories

They're f.cking bricking it

https://nitter.net/christopherhope/stat ... 1711420416

People who live in glass houses shouldn't f.ck around and find out

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 3:41 pm

They're f.cking bricking it

https://nitter.net/christopherhope/stat ... 1711420416

People who live in glass houses shouldn't f.ck around and find out

Hahahahahahahahahaha

lpm wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 2:56 pm

Middle class middle income England is OK with Starmer. Don't forget the remain moderates who rejected Corbyn and voted Johnson instead, but who will be content with a dull lawyer as PM.

And Starmer is who will win seats for LibDems in southern England. It's how the blue wall gets broken.

Not that good =/= bad. Labour could easily do worse, as I suggested. But the're people who could take over who would be as good as him. The choice isn't Starmer, Barry Gardiner or Richard Burgon. There's much more than that in the pool.

And Labour need to win votes for themselves, not just for the LIb Dems. I want more than just the Tories being ousted.

Ah, an possible explanation of the "significant new information" that led to the Durham Police re-opening its investigation

https://twitter.com/CoDLabour/status/15 ... 8544631809

tl:dr
The Durham Conservative MP wrote to the police and seems to have conflated the meal taken while campaigning with an online quiz that the local Labour Party were organising.

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 4:01 pm

Ah, an possible explanation of the "significant new information" that led to the Durham Police re-opening its investigation

https://twitter.com/CoDLabour/status/15 ... 8544631809

tl:dr
The Durham Conservative MP wrote to the police and seems to have conflated the meal taken while campaigning with an online quiz that the local Labour Party were organising.

Interesting.

It would be poetic if Johnson were finally to be brought down by the actions of a *loyal* Tory MP through incompetence in attacking Starmer that was picked up and run with.

I know lpm refers to "the writers" but that would make me think she is actually right and it's not just a conceit.

jimbob wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 4:42 pm

I know lpm refers to "the writers" but that would make me think she is actually right and it's not just a conceit.

I thought that was Nezumi
viewtopic.php?p=121749#p121749

lpm wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 2:20 pm

There's no replacement for Starmer. It'll be a disaster if he goes.

[joke]I dunno, surely there's at least one more cardboard cutout of Tony Blair in a cupboard at Labour HQ?[/joke]

Owen Jones has his usual astute take on things

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... n-beergate

tldr: Starmer is not Corybyn so let's attack him and big up Sunak

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 4:01 pm

Ah, an possible explanation of the "significant new information" that led to the Durham Police re-opening its investigation

https://twitter.com/CoDLabour/status/15 ... 8544631809

tl:dr
The Durham Conservative MP wrote to the police and seems to have conflated the meal taken while campaigning with an online quiz that the local Labour Party were organising.

More new information

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status ... B49JiHGj1g

The Guardian can reveal Labour has compiled time-stamped logs of WhatsApp chats, documents and video edits – which it will provide to the investigation by Durham police.

jimbob wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 7:36 pm

Owen Jones has his usual astute take on things

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... n-beergate

tldr: Starmer is not Corybyn so let's attack him and big up Sunak

That's not what I got from his piece at all btw.

As for Starmer, from what I've read he's probably ok but yeah his position would be untenable if fined anyway, so promising to resign if fined is the sensible strategy.

It's an interesting example in media narrative-building though, eh?

jimbob wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 4:41 pm

Gfamily wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 4:01 pm

Ah, an possible explanation of the "significant new information" that led to the Durham Police re-opening its investigation

https://twitter.com/CoDLabour/status/15 ... 8544631809

tl:dr
The Durham Conservative MP wrote to the police and seems to have conflated the meal taken while campaigning with an online quiz that the local Labour Party were organising.

Interesting.

It would be poetic if Johnson were finally to be brought down by the actions of a *loyal* Tory MP through incompetence in attacking Starmer that was picked up and run with.

It'd be Very Amusing if the end result was a charge for wasting police time.

Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 7:43 pm

<snip>
More new information

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status ... B49JiHGj1g

The Guardian can reveal Labour has compiled time-stamped logs of WhatsApp chats, documents and video edits – which it will provide to the investigation by Durham police.

just came here to post that.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 7:53 pm

jimbob wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 7:36 pm

Owen Jones has his usual astute take on things

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... n-beergate

tldr: Starmer is not Corybyn so let's attack him and big up Sunak

That's not what I got from his piece at all btw.

I got the first part but not the second from his piece.

Owen needs to realise that the voting public arent ready for Corbyn / Student Socialist levels of transformation. The first win for Labour is getting the Tories out and demonstrating some competence in government. They need to boil the frog.

TopBadger wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 9:01 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 7:53 pm

jimbob wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 7:36 pm

Owen Jones has his usual astute take on things

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... n-beergate

tldr: Starmer is not Corybyn so let's attack him and big up Sunak

That's not what I got from his piece at all btw.

I got the first part but not the second from his piece.

Owen needs to realise that the voting public arent ready for Corbyn / Student Socialist levels of transformation. The first win for Labour is getting the Tories out and demonstrating some competence in government. They need to boil the frog.

No one expected Starmer to continue Corbynism, but he did campaign for leader pretty much as Corbyn Lite with competence. Instead we just got the competence. There's very little in the way of memorable policy coming out of Labour at the moment*, and no focus or theme to hang everything off of to help with that.

Jones is right that Labour need to do more in this regard. It's not just me and him, just about every commentator outside of the right wing press seem to be saying that - here's Freedland (not a Corbynite) doing it the other day:clicky. He's being less hyperbolic and less optimistic about what could be achieved, but the underlying message of both is that to get a Labour government (even a minority one), they have to do more.

It's all very well talking about boiling frogs, but no frogs get boiled by just pointing out that your competitor can't even catch a frog and making out that you could boil a frog if you wanted to because you know how.

*There is some, but I bet most people can't remember what it is.

There's very little point to having detailed policies and campaigns across the board while in opposition, until there's an election timetabled.

Opposition is about opposing the government's agenda and building a general reputation with swing voters and the centrist press, not with those that largely agree with you that the government is bad. Something the Republican party have used to great effect, while failing to then come up with real policies when in power.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 12:09 am

There's very little point to having detailed policies and campaigns across the board while in opposition, until there's an election timetabled.

Opposition is about opposing the government's agenda and building a general reputation with swing voters and the centrist press, not with those that largely agree with you that the government is bad.

There was an election the other day, but I'll assume meant a general . The trouble is they are not attracting voters in places they need to (who have been on a long swing towards the Tories) and while the centrist press seem to like Starmer, they seem to be all like "yeah, you're going to have to do a bit more than that". They're not doing what you say they should be doing.

Being competent is good, especially if the government seems to be trying its best to make you look more competent by comparison. But competence is a skill. What are they going to be competent at and is it going to make people's lives better?

They don't need a full manifesto, just a flavour of where they want to take the country if they were to be in charge. A bit of vision. So far there's been none of that, and it's that sort of thing I want to see.

And also, more info about how this is a hit job:

Student who shot Keir Starmer Beergate video is Breitbart writer’s son
Ivo Delingpole, son of James Delingpole, lived nearby and spotted Labour leader through window of Durham Miners Hall

monkey wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 1:04 am

The trouble is they are not attracting voters in places they need to (who have been on a long swing towards the Tories)

This analysis suggests that’s not necessarily true, and while it’s only an analysis, and says something I’d like to hear so should be treated with great caution, it is possible that the supposed inexorable march of the northern working class towards populist conservatism could falter as the shine starts to wear off Boris and his ‘done’ Brexit.

Well yeah. The LAB->CON swing in the last election was all leave voters (matched by a LAB->LD swing of remainers). That simply won't be a factor in the next election.

The other questions are, will enough mud from the crap situation the UK will be in by 2024 stick to the Tories, in the minds of readers of the Tory press?

Similarly, will Labour have created enough of a counter-narrative that people vote for them rather than stay home.

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 10:52 am

Well yeah. The LAB->CON swing in the last election was all leave voters (matched by a LAB->LD swing of remainers). That simply won't be a factor in the next election.

The other questions are, will enough mud from the crap situation the UK will be in by 2024 stick to the Tories, in the minds of readers of the Tory press?

Similarly, will Labour have created enough of a counter-narrative that people vote for them rather than stay home.

I keep thinking it's a long time until the next GE, who knows what will happen and voters have short memories.