Scrutable

nekomatic wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 9:12 am

monkey wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 1:04 am

The trouble is they are not attracting voters in places they need to (who have been on a long swing towards the Tories)

This analysis suggests that’s not necessarily true, and while it’s only an analysis, and says something I’d like to hear so should be treated with great caution, it is possible that the supposed inexorable march of the northern working class towards populist conservatism could falter as the shine starts to wear off Boris and his ‘done’ Brexit.

monkey wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 1:15 pm

nekomatic wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 9:12 am

monkey wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 1:04 am

The trouble is they are not attracting voters in places they need to (who have been on a long swing towards the Tories)

This analysis suggests that’s not necessarily true, and while it’s only an analysis, and says something I’d like to hear so should be treated with great caution, it is possible that the supposed inexorable march of the northern working class towards populist conservatism could falter as the shine starts to wear off Boris and his ‘done’ Brexit.

The shine has worn off Johnson already, but people aren't going back to Labour, they're staying at home instead. Those are voters that could go either way in a GE if Johnson gets the boot first.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 1:24 pm

monkey wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 1:15 pm

nekomatic wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 9:12 am

This analysis suggests that’s not necessarily true, and while it’s only an analysis, and says something I’d like to hear so should be treated with great caution, it is possible that the supposed inexorable march of the northern working class towards populist conservatism could falter as the shine starts to wear off Boris and his ‘done’ Brexit.

The shine has worn off Johnson already, but people aren't going back to Labour, they're staying at home instead. Those are voters that could go either way in a GE if Johnson gets the boot first.

That's how swings to the other party start. Some get disappointed in their previous choice and stay home and/or start listening to what the other side are actually say, some that stayed home last time get angry and go out to vote against.

Most people don't decide overnight to switch from Tory to Labour or vice versa on a national level, they decide that they don't really trust their last choice, or the party they belong to, then they decide whether to vote for them again, then whether to vote at all, and then they decide if they can vote for who they voted against last time, if they will vote for a third party, or if they will vote tactically against who they voted for last time.

monkey wrote: ↑

Tue May 10, 2022 1:15 pm

people aren't going back to Labour, they're staying at home instead.

Following understandable confusion about the numbers given out this morning, the Met has now issued a clarification

The 126 fines were given out
- over events on 8 days, but some days had more than 1 event
- to 83 people
- 53 FPNs were issued to 35 men and 73 FPNs to 48 women

Sue Gray wants to name civil servants who broke Covid rules at lockdown parties in and around Downing Street.

The senior civil servant is now free to publish her full report on the parties after the Metropolitan Police wound up their investigation.

The Met have not named any of the 83 individuals who have been fined.

But Ms Gray is contacting the ones she wants to name, ahead of the publication of her report, which is expected to be next week.

Those expected to be named by Ms Gray have been given until 5pm on Sunday to respond to information she intends to publish about them, it is understood.

A source familiar with the report told the BBC her assessment could be that there were trails of evidence to suggest the prime minister was badly advised, and not necessarily aware of what events he was stumbling into.

FlammableFlower wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 12:15 pm

Heh - Cummings is threatening a deluge of photos showing the Johnson has been lying, not just to colleagues, but also the police.

Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 2:12 pm

FlammableFlower wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 12:15 pm

Heh - Cummings is threatening a deluge of photos showing the Johnson has been lying, not just to colleagues, but also the police.

Yeah but he threatens lots of things that never happen.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 2:16 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 2:12 pm

FlammableFlower wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 12:15 pm

Heh - Cummings is threatening a deluge of photos showing the Johnson has been lying, not just to colleagues, but also the police.

Yeah but he threatens lots of things that never happen.

And it's not like Johnson being a liar would be news to anyone.

Why didn't Cummings give this evidence to the police in the first place?

jimbob wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 2:18 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 2:16 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 2:12 pm

Yeah but he threatens lots of things that never happen.

And it's not like Johnson being a liar would be news to anyone.

Why didn't Cummings give this evidence to the police in the first place?

Ego

He wants to be the kingmaker/breaker

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 3:14 pm

I'm not sure Cummings was saying he was the person with the photos, my reading was that he believes other people have them and will release them.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 3:14 pm

I'm not sure Cummings was saying he was the person with the photos, my reading was that he believes other people have them and will release them.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 3:14 pm

I'm not sure Cummings was saying he was the person with the photos, my reading was that he believes other people have them and will release them.

lpm wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 4:07 pm

I can't quite work out what's on the table, apart from all the bottles of booze. There's a gin bottle. Somewhat amusingly there's hand sanitiser and anti-bacterial wipes. Is the blue thing a packet of biscuits? What are the cartons by Boris's leg?

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 4:16 pm

Yes, there's a packet of biscuits - they look like Nice biscuits or possibly shortbread. I reckon that the carton thing is a salad or summat like that. One of the plastic cups on the table appears to have a bright green drink inside it (creme de menthe?). Also notable is the red box just sat there.

Of the six bottles of wine that are visible, only one is unopened.

Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑

Mon May 23, 2022 4:31 pm

It’s the gin/vodka/whatever that gets me.