The Invasion of Ukraine

[EACLucifer]

I’d welcome the return of Robin Cook’s “Ethical Foreign Policy” that the Sierra Leone intervention happened under. I do feel like helping Ukraine would fit in with that.

Bang on.

It also would work better for our national and foreign interests

Absolutely.

[EACLucifer]

Russia's publically hanged more civilians. Luhansk this time. Out of respect for the victims, I will not link the pictures.

And Putin apparently doesn't want to talk unless his annexations are recognised, so so much for the idiotic "bUT WhY wON'T ZeLENsKy NegoTIatE?" crowd.

There is one answer here - so give, sell and lend every weapon Ukraine needs to get the Russians out of their territory as quickly as possible.

[EACLucifer]

Shoigu appears to be visiting Belarus. Safe to say he's up to something, but what he's up to - and whether he succeeds at it - remain to be seen.

[TopBadger]

Shoigu appears to be visiting Belarus. Safe to say he's up to something, but what he's up to - and whether he succeeds at it - remain to be seen.

Routine window inspection on buildings used by Lukashenko...

[TopBadger]

And Putin drove across the Kerch Bridge... perhaps for one last look at Crimea before he loses it forever? I hope so.

The Russian total loss of this war can't come soon enough.

[Woodchopper]

Top Pentagon and industry officials maintain that efforts are finally ramping up to replace the weapons that the United States and its allies have shipped to Ukraine — depleting stockpiles that are deemed crucial to deterring China or other potential adversaries for years to come.

“There’s a lot of urgency,” Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told reporters. “Congress is sending billions of dollars to the Department of Defense, and we are turning that around and getting that on contract — I would say two to three times faster than we normally do.”

She cited recent deals for tens of thousands of 155mm artillery rounds that the Ukrainians are using up almost as soon as they arrive. By the spring, “we will be able to do 20,000 rounds a month,” she said.

But it will take time to manufacture enough of them, she said, adding that the U.S. will get that rate up to 40,000 rounds a month in the spring of 2025.

Indeed, reigniting plants that make artillery, rockets, missiles and air defenses that were tailored for peacetime efficiency — rather than war-time production — is proving a massive task.

“We spend a lot of money on some very exquisite large systems and we do not spend as much on the munitions necessary to support those,” Gregory Hayes, the CEO of Raytheon Technologies, said during a panel discussion. “We have not had a priority on fulfilling the war reserves that we need to fight a long-term battle.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/0 ... e-00072125

As far as I know monthly production is currently 14 000 and the US has supplied a million rounds to Ukraine.

[Woodchopper]

On the dangers of relying upon global supply chains for critical military components.

The supply of military aid to Ukraine is depleting Germany's stockpiles of ammunition -- an issue that may be exacerbated by the slowdown of component imports from China.

German ammunition makers at a recent defense symposium near Munich flagged that the lead time for orders of cotton linters from China -- a key component for propelling charges for both small guns and artillery -- has tripled to up to nine months, German-language daily Die Welt reported.

While cotton linters are a commodity material produced and traded across the globe, the report cited unnamed industry sources saying that all European ammunition manufacturers rely on China for them.

The massive bottlenecks in raw material supply "concern especially ammunition and special steels," Wolfgang Hellmich, the defense affairs speaker for the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) in parliament, told Nikkei Asia, when asked whether there are supply bottlenecks for China-sourced materials for military equipment.

[...]

The delay comes against the backdrop of Beijing refusing to condemn Moscow for the invasion of Ukraine, and China continuing to hold frequent joint military drills with Russia. But at the same time, Russia's firing of tens of thousands of artillery rounds per day in Ukraine have made the Bundeswehr, the German military, realize that its own stockpiles would be grossly inadequate for such high-intensity warfare.

Like other countries, Germany keeps its ammunition stockpiles secret, but many observers believe that the Bundeswehr would run out of ammunition within days or even hours in the event of war. In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the SPD-led government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz established a special 100-billion-euro ($106 billion) fund to upgrade its underequipped armed forces.

With Germany simultaneously transferring ammunition to Ukraine's military, such as for multiple rocket launchers, anti-aircraft guns and machine guns, the slowdown of imports of key components from China obviously puts the government in a dilemma.

"There is a reliance on China, and this is posing challenges for the stockpiling effort," said Henning Otte, a parliamentarian for the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who serves as the deputy chair of the Bundestag's defense committee.

Across the Atlantic, Timothy Heath, a senior international defense researcher at RAND Corp., points out that U.S. defense companies also use Chinese rare earth, raw materials and components.

"This reflects the globalized nature of production. Department of defense policy makers are trying to persuade the companies to reduce or eliminate their reliance on Chinese suppliers," Heath said.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukrain ... -stockpile

[Woodchopper]

Britain is rebuilding its tank-killing missile stocks with an order replacing thousands of NLAW next generation light anti-tank weapons donated to the defense of the Ukraine.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced Dec. 12 that his ministry had agreed a deal with NLAW developer Saab valued at £229 million ($280 million) to replenish depleted weapon stocks starting 2024 and finishing 2026.

[…]

The deal follows an earlier contract involving the supply of 500 missiles for delivery next year.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... ll-stocks/

[sTeamTraen]

Britain is rebuilding its tank-killing missile stocks with an order replacing thousands of NLAW next generation light anti-tank weapons donated to the defense of the Ukraine.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced Dec. 12 that his ministry had agreed a deal with NLAW developer Saab valued at £229 million ($280 million) to replenish depleted weapon stocks starting 2024 and finishing 2026.

[…]

The deal follows an earlier contract involving the supply of 500 missiles for delivery next year.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... ll-stocks/

Wikipedia estimates that the NLAW costs $30-40k per, so that means between 7000 and 9000 units.

[EACLucifer]

Britain is rebuilding its tank-killing missile stocks with an order replacing thousands of NLAW next generation light anti-tank weapons donated to the defense of the Ukraine.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced Dec. 12 that his ministry had agreed a deal with NLAW developer Saab valued at £229 million ($280 million) to replenish depleted weapon stocks starting 2024 and finishing 2026.

[…]

The deal follows an earlier contract involving the supply of 500 missiles for delivery next year.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... ll-stocks/

Wikipedia estimates that the NLAW costs $30-40k per, so that means between 7000 and 9000 units.

NLAWs are a short range weapon that is mostly used to give infantry units and patrols a way to hit back if attacked by armoured vehicles. The amount needed is thus more to do with how many units one has than how many pieces of armour the enemy has.

[Woodchopper]

The U.S. Defense Department is under pressure from Congress to revise munitions requirements for a hypothetical fight between NATO and Russia to allow more arms to flow to Ukraine, according to three people familiar with the debate.

U.S. military and defense officials have repeatedly told lawmakers and aides in recent briefings that munition thresholds mandated by Pentagon war plans—such as for a possible U.S. and NATO fight with Russia that could include a military scenario in the sparsely populated Suwalki Gap near Moscow’s border with the Baltics—are preventing the United States from sending more munitions to Ukraine.

[…]

Under U.S. law, the Pentagon’s top military officer, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, is required to regularly submit munitions requirements to Congress for each war plan on the agency’s books, known in Pentagon parlance as operational plans (or OPLANs). Most of the munitions that the United States is giving to Ukraine—such as NATO-standard 155mm artillery and multiple launch rockets, for instance—are earmarked for fighting Russia or North Korea.

But the lack of changes to the plans since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February has frustrated lawmakers and aides, who have called for more of the weapons put aside for a hypothetical fight with Russia to be sent to Ukraine, which is actually fighting Russia now. As the pace of U.S. military aid to Ukraine has slipped since the summer, concern on Capitol Hill is that the United States is holding back weapons for a Europe-wide conflict that Russia may not be prepared to fight, when Ukrainian troops are already degrading the Russian military on the battlefield.

“The OPLAN versus Russia is the same one it’s been for the last decade,” said a second congressional aide familiar with the debate, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe behind-the-scenes discussions. “We haven’t adjusted that based on the fact that the Ukrainians have essentially neutered the Russian army. So we have a plan in place to deal with the Russian army as we thought it was a year or two years ago.”

[…]

But even as top U.S. defense and military officials have warned about dwindling U.S. military stockpiles, congressional aides insist that weapons are still being left on the shelf. The problem isn’t dwindling stockpiles, they said, but that the United States can’t build munitions fast enough to replace what’s being given to Ukraine.

[…]

“It’s really rich that all these people are now concerned about stockpiles because we’ve almost never been at the total munitions requirement for any munition and nobody gave a sh.t for years,” the first congressional aide said. “If we revise the Russia requirements, we would feel completely comfortable. It’s hard for me to see how we can’t go way deeper if we’re seeing the effects like we’re getting today.”

And the response from the Biden administration about why it can’t change the plans hasn’t satisfied critics on Capitol Hill. “The response back to why they haven’t [changed the plans] has been less than compelling, other than, ‘it’s hard,’” the second congressional aide added.

[…]

The U.S. Defense Department declined to comment specifically on its munitions inventory or deliberations with Capitol Hill. Lt. Col. Garron Garn, a Pentagon spokesperson, told Foreign Policy that the agency would not “go below our readiness requirements” in supporting Ukraine.

“In selecting specific systems over others, the departments take into consideration what the readiness impacts are of drawing down that equipment from U.S. stocks,” Garn said in an emailed statement. “We are working to replenish U.S. inventories and backfill depleted stocks of Allies and partners.”

Western officials believe that it will take Russia about five years to reconstitute its ground forces and ammunition holdings given stifling U.S.-led sanctions and export controls that have decimated the supply of computer chips and other guided missile parts to the Kremlin as well as forced Moscow to lean on Iran and North Korea to backfill dwindling supplies.

But former U.S. officials who were surprised by Russia’s 2008 military victory in Georgia and the lightning-fast illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 are worried that officials now might be counting out Moscow too quickly.

“My fear is that’s the signal that’s going to be sent to other allies, that they can do that too,” said Jim Townsend, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for NATO and Russia. “But other allies don’t have those kinds of margins. And if they say, ‘Hey, look, the U.S. is doing it. We should do it too,’ and then we’re really kind of potentially screwing ourselves because Russia has been known to always come back.”

[…]

But even as production lines are starting to move again, there is concern in Washington that Ukraine is burning through ammunition too fast to try and take the fighting to a wounded Russian force during the winter.

“There’s a concern about their burn rate,” Townsend said. “They can make it harder for us to give them what they need if they just burn through it thinking that it’s a gravy train of ammo—and it’s just not.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/09/mi ... shortages/

[Woodchopper]

The head of NATO expressed worry that the fighting in Ukraine could spin out of control and become a war between Russia and NATO, according to an interview released Friday.

“If things go wrong, they can go horribly wrong,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in remarks to Norwegian broadcaster NRK.

“It is a terrible war in Ukraine. It is also a war that can become a full-fledged war that spreads into a major war between NATO and Russia,” he said. “We are working on that every day to avoid that.”

Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway, said in the interview that “there is no doubt that a full-fledged war is a possibility,” adding that it was important to avoid a conflict “that involves more countries in Europe and becomes a full-fledged war in Europe.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/nato ... r-conflict

[Herainestold]

The head of NATO expressed worry that the fighting in Ukraine could spin out of control and become a war between Russia and NATO, according to an interview released Friday.

“If things go wrong, they can go horribly wrong,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in remarks to Norwegian broadcaster NRK.

“It is a terrible war in Ukraine. It is also a war that can become a full-fledged war that spreads into a major war between NATO and Russia,” he said. “We are working on that every day to avoid that.”

Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway, said in the interview that “there is no doubt that a full-fledged war is a possibility,” adding that it was important to avoid a conflict “that involves more countries in Europe and becomes a full-fledged war in Europe.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/nato ... r-conflict

A Christmas truce that morphed into a de facto peace agreement and settlement would be a good thing for everybody.

[Martin_B]

The head of NATO expressed worry that the fighting in Ukraine could spin out of control and become a war between Russia and NATO, according to an interview released Friday.

“If things go wrong, they can go horribly wrong,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in remarks to Norwegian broadcaster NRK.

“It is a terrible war in Ukraine. It is also a war that can become a full-fledged war that spreads into a major war between NATO and Russia,” he said. “We are working on that every day to avoid that.”

Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway, said in the interview that “there is no doubt that a full-fledged war is a possibility,” adding that it was important to avoid a conflict “that involves more countries in Europe and becomes a full-fledged war in Europe.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/nato ... r-conflict

A Christmas truce that morphed into a de facto peace agreement and settlement would be a good thing for everybody.

Apart from all the Ukrainians living under Russian occupation getting tortured, raped and killed. How do you justify this?

[shpalman]

The head of NATO expressed worry that the fighting in Ukraine could spin out of control and become a war between Russia and NATO, according to an interview released Friday.

“If things go wrong, they can go horribly wrong,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in remarks to Norwegian broadcaster NRK.

“It is a terrible war in Ukraine. It is also a war that can become a full-fledged war that spreads into a major war between NATO and Russia,” he said. “We are working on that every day to avoid that.”

Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway, said in the interview that “there is no doubt that a full-fledged war is a possibility,” adding that it was important to avoid a conflict “that involves more countries in Europe and becomes a full-fledged war in Europe.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/nato ... r-conflict

A Christmas truce that morphed into a de facto peace agreement and settlement would be a good thing for everybody.

A Christmas truce that morphed into the Russians f.cking the f.ck back off into f.cking Russia, and I mean actual Russia not the bits of Ukraine which they claim are Russia, would be a good thing for everybody.

[Herainestold]

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/nato ... r-conflict

A Christmas truce that morphed into a de facto peace agreement and settlement would be a good thing for everybody.

A Christmas truce that morphed into the Russians f.cking the f.ck back off into f.cking Russia, and I mean actual Russia not the bits of Ukraine which they claim are Russia, would be a good thing for everybody.

Sure. But that is not going to happen.

[temptar]

You are demanding sacrifices of the victims.

If they are to make sacrifices, I think they should get to choose whether they prefer to be killed fighting or killed by an evil repressive occupying invader, don’t you?

[bjn]

A Christmas truce that morphed into a de facto peace agreement and settlement would be a good thing for everybody.

A Christmas truce that morphed into the Russians f.cking the f.ck back off into f.cking Russia, and I mean actual Russia not the bits of Ukraine which they claim are Russia, would be a good thing for everybody.

Sure. But that is not going to happen.

So Ukraine should just roll over and let the death squads get on with it in the occupied areas? That idea disgusts me.

[Herainestold]

An ideal situation would be, Russia reverts to pre 2014 borders, Putin is overthrown and replaced by a socialist government that puts the welfare of the Russian people first.

We all know that is not going to happen.

It is going to be some kind of stalemate, where Russia does not achieve its early war aims, but holds onto Crimea and Donbass.
In the mean time Ukrainian infrastructure is destroyed every day and Ukraine turns into a bombed out hell hole where ordinary human existence is impossible.

Better to cut the carnage and come to some kind of settlement. Ukraine has been put back 50 years from all the bombing, they will never return to their former level of economic life.

NATO is not about to attack Putin and hold him accountable.

Have to consider some kind of armistice that will stop the carnage and let people live their lives.

[headshot]

Some sort of peace for our time?

[EACLucifer]

Some sort of peace for our time?

This. Appeasement = more war. A "peace" where Russia a) succeeds and b) still exists as a single large country will lead to further conflict, as it rewards Muscovite colonialism. Time to decolonise the Russian Federation.

[Herainestold]

Some sort of peace for our time?

This. Appeasement = more war. A "peace" where Russia a) succeeds and b) still exists as a single large country will lead to further conflict, as it rewards Muscovite colonialism. Time to decolonise the Russian Federation.

Do you think that, at the end of this conflict, Russia will cease to exist as a single large country?

[TopBadger]

An ideal situation would be, Russia reverts to pre 2014 borders, Putin is overthrown and replaced by a socialist government that puts the welfare of the Russian people first.

We all know that is not going to happen.

Wow - something I can agree with you on...

It is going to be some kind of stalemate, where Russia does not achieve its early war aims, but holds onto Crimea and Donbass.
In the mean time Ukrainian infrastructure is destroyed every day and Ukraine turns into a bombed out hell hole where ordinary human existence is impossible.

The Russians are going backwards - every liberated settlement is one step further away from being a hell hole. If the support keeps coming for Ukraine then Russia will hold nothing. Your arguments to me advance the notion that we need to be providing more, rather than giving the Russian's respite from which they can push on again.

Better to cut the carnage and come to some kind of settlement. Ukraine has been put back 50 years from all the bombing, they will never return to their former level of economic life.

Like Germany after the second world war, I see what you mea... hang on a minute! Nah - that's BS again isn't it? Of course they'll return, and much faster than Russia will.

NATO is not about to attack Putin and hold him accountable.

Have to consider some kind of armistice that will stop the carnage and let people live their lives.

Glad you agree NATO isn't going in on invading Russia for Putin. However, continued existence in the shadow of Russian imperialism is not the life that Ukrainians are choosing for themselves. They want to get the Russians out, and then join the security (both mililtary and economic) of the EU/NATO.

[Herainestold]

NATO doesn't have to actually threaten Putin for him to feel threatened by it.

Ukraine and its western backers are going to have to make some hard choices, because the dream of evicting Russia from everything including Crimea is just that, a dream. At some point there will be a negotiated settlement. Russia will claim some kind of victory and Ukraine will feel aggrieved. But the killing will stop

[EACLucifer]

Tankie morons are clearly too stupid to have heard of the Parade of Sovereignties, or to understand that some very popular independence movements were thwarted then, but that the kind of crash Russia is already heading for will likely wake them up again.

Meanwhile there are fires all over Russia - most likely business owners torching their own property as its better to take the loss and claim the insurance than to try and run them in the current business climate.

Russia's economy is on course to collapse. They are simultaneously having to pay vastly more for this war than they expected, and vastly more than they could have afforded at any point, while at the same time suffering a decline in revenues as the economy shrinks, people flee, and energy exports are down.