The Invasion of Ukraine

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
User avatar
bjn
After Pie
Posts: 2416
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:59 am

ISW has a piece focused on Prigozhin falling out of favour with Putin after his failure to take Bakhmut. Also touches on Surovikin‘s fall from grace after his humanely costly but militarily ineffective missile campaign.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ry-22-2023
The marginalization of people like Prigozhin, who has had men executed with sledgehammers and hands out Wagner sledgehammers as gifts, is a good thing.[35] The return to prominence and influence of more professional military officers such as Gerasimov likely suggests a reduced likelihood that Putin will give in to the crazier demands of the far-right pro-war faction, possibly in turn further reducing the already-low likelihood of irrational Russian escalations. It can never be good to have people like Prigozhin near the center of power, so any indication that he is receding from power is positive. Prigozhin is not yet gone and will not likely leave Putin’s circle permanently. And he could rise again if Gerasimov and his cronies fail Putin once more. But Prigozhin is, for now, apparently an increasingly spent force in the Kremlin’s inner circles, and that is good.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3141
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:09 am

Every. Single. Time.

There are no redlines, just bluff and bluster.

Meanwhile, Russian troops on the Finnish border are down to just a quarter of their pre-February 2022 levels*. As has been clear since at least last summer, Russia cannot escalate against the west. They can't even win against one country smaller than them, how would they cope against a large military alliance containing nations like the USA, the UK, France and Poland? The only considerations for military aid now should be what is most effective, and it should be planned over a long enough timescale that long term planning is possible.

Every time I see someone saying that western tanks or western jets or whatever take a long time to train, because Ukraine was asking for these systems last spring. That's enough time to train a tank crew to a western standard twice over, and it's enough time to train a jet pilot onto a fast jet like a Typhoon or an F-16, and that's at peace time pace.

*Article in Swedish

User avatar
TopBadger
Snowbonk
Posts: 604
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:33 pm
Location: Halfway up

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:08 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64370165

Germany will not block Leopard tank re-exports...
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3141
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:10 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:08 am
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64370165

Germany will not block Leopard tank re-exports...
Unfortunately Scholz and Baerbock don't seem to be in agreement on this at the moment. Baerbock is definitely better on this, but sadly, Scholz continues to Scholz.

While defender's of Germany's stance are claiming that the paperwork isn't in order/not received from Poland, Ukraine requested tanks from Germany a mere three hundred and twenty seven days ago.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3141
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:26 pm

It's Volodomyr Zelenskyy's birthday today. Russia likes attacks on days they consider significant, and have also previously targetted Kryvyi Rih, quite possibly due to the symbolism of it being Zelenskyy's hometown.

Russian strategic bomber fleet radio channels are active, suggesting another missile attack on Ukraine could well be coming.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3141
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:29 pm

There's no valid military reason for Russia to be shelling the city of Kherson right now, but they are repeatedly doing so, and hitting the maternity hospital frequently enough that it suggests they are aiming at it.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3141
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jan 27, 2023 9:30 pm

Russian deficit. You'll note there's a cyclical pattern where they're doing better in winter and worse in summer. Well, until this winter, that is.

Image

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 4531
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sun Jan 29, 2023 12:23 am

The Mirror (it's an exclusive) reports that the Tory treasurer is profiting from supplying Russian industry

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... =operanews
The Tories’ top treasurer has been raking it in from a firm still dealing with warmonger Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Billionaire Mohamed Mansour co-owns UK-based Unatrac and a subsidiary supplying machinery to Russia’s oil and gas industry. Unatrac has donated £600,000 to the Conservatives and Mr Mansour is said to have pledged £2million to the Tories himself.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3141
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jan 29, 2023 12:04 pm

Can't help but think the election of General Petr Pavel as Czech president will be helpful, especially as the alternative was the crooked Andrej Babiš.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 6122
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Jan 30, 2023 9:19 pm

I have split the libel discussion and made a new thread.

Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 1958
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:17 am

Brazil's Lula proposes an international group of nations to negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advocated the creation of a group of countries aimed at discussing ways to end the war in Ukraine. The proposal was made after a bilateral meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the Planalto presidential palace, in Brasília, on Monday (Jan. 30).

“What we have to do is form a group strong enough to be respected at a negotiating table—and sit down with both sides,” the president said.

Lula discussed the participation of countries like India, Indonesia, and China in this process. “Our Chinese friends play a crucial role. It’s time for China to roll up their sleeves,” he added. The president also mentioned the efforts made to overcome the economic crisis in 2008, when the G20 was created.
https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/int ... ine-russia
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3141
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:15 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:17 am
Brazil's Lula proposes an international group of nations to negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advocated the creation of a group of countries aimed at discussing ways to end the war in Ukraine. The proposal was made after a bilateral meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the Planalto presidential palace, in Brasília, on Monday (Jan. 30).

“What we have to do is form a group strong enough to be respected at a negotiating table—and sit down with both sides,” the president said.

Lula discussed the participation of countries like India, Indonesia, and China in this process. “Our Chinese friends play a crucial role. It’s time for China to roll up their sleeves,” he added. The president also mentioned the efforts made to overcome the economic crisis in 2008, when the G20 was created.
https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/int ... ine-russia
The only way to negotiate an acceptable solution is to provide sufficient military support to Ukraine for Putin to realise he will lose his hold on Ukrainian territory one way or the other, and he might as well get it over with in negotiations rather than face the even worse political consequences of total military defeat. Without the possibility of total military defeat, we will seek to occupy parts of Ukraine - with all the torture, rape and other abuses that entails for the Ukrainian population under occupation - and freeze the conflict to restart it at a time of his choosing. To avoid that danger, Putin must not be allowed any sort of victory, and must not be allowed to hold any part of Ukraine, including Crimea. The complete defeat of Putin within Ukraine is entirely possible so long as appropriate western support continues.

Lula has been a f.cking moron on this issue, including blaming the victims for Putin's imperialism, and his suggestions should be rejected and mocked accordingly.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 6122
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:17 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:15 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:17 am
Brazil's Lula proposes an international group of nations to negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advocated the creation of a group of countries aimed at discussing ways to end the war in Ukraine. The proposal was made after a bilateral meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the Planalto presidential palace, in Brasília, on Monday (Jan. 30).

“What we have to do is form a group strong enough to be respected at a negotiating table—and sit down with both sides,” the president said.

Lula discussed the participation of countries like India, Indonesia, and China in this process. “Our Chinese friends play a crucial role. It’s time for China to roll up their sleeves,” he added. The president also mentioned the efforts made to overcome the economic crisis in 2008, when the G20 was created.
https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/int ... ine-russia
The only way to negotiate an acceptable solution is to provide sufficient military support to Ukraine for Putin to realise he will lose his hold on Ukrainian territory one way or the other, and he might as well get it over with in negotiations rather than face the even worse political consequences of total military defeat. Without the possibility of total military defeat, we will seek to occupy parts of Ukraine - with all the torture, rape and other abuses that entails for the Ukrainian population under occupation - and freeze the conflict to restart it at a time of his choosing. To avoid that danger, Putin must not be allowed any sort of victory, and must not be allowed to hold any part of Ukraine, including Crimea. The complete defeat of Putin within Ukraine is entirely possible so long as appropriate western support continues.

Lula has been a f.cking moron on this issue, including blaming the victims for Putin's imperialism, and his suggestions should be rejected and mocked accordingly.
One way that the war could end is if Putin decided that he can't win and continuing the fighting is too costly. If so he might negotiate a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from all the Ukrainian territory they currently occupy. That might also be a good outcome for Ukraine as the fighting is very costly. No one except Putin knows when he might have reached that conclusion. So having ongoing talks talks is a way to have a process in place if he decided to cut hos losses.

One question. What do people think of suggestions that a negotiated withdrawal could involve referendums in the territory controlled by the pre-2022 Donetsk and Luhansk 'republics' and Crimea? The votes would of course need to be free and fair. They'd need to be robustly organized and monitored by neutral external parties, with, say, UN peacekeeping forces ensuring that the population wasn't intimidated. Assuming such a vote was possible, the referendums would open the possibility that Russia could permanently gain territory. Which is difficult to stomach. But on the other hand its difficult to argue against self-determination.

User avatar
bolo
Catbabel
Posts: 915
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:17 pm
Location: Washington DC

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bolo » Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:49 pm

Given that lots of the pre-war population have fled / been killed / been deported, and some number of Russians have been shipped in for various purposes, voluntarily or otherwise, the idea of "free and fair" self-determination seems problematic.

User avatar
Martin Y
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2772
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:08 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:57 pm

Yes, free and fair is problematic, not just because historically waves of Russians have been pushed into the regions and waves of previous occupants turfed out, but because so many people who lived there until recently have fled for safety. While I'm not clear how a free and fair referendum would turn out, I can't see any outcome which Russia would tolerate that doesn't give them Crimea, and vice versa with Ukraine and the Donbas.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3141
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:05 pm

bolo wrote:
Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:49 pm
Given that lots of the pre-war population have fled / been killed / been deported, and some number of Russians have been shipped in for various purposes, voluntarily or otherwise, the idea of "free and fair" self-determination seems problematic.
This. There isn't any possibility for doing it freely and fairly, and doing so rewards Putin. Please remember that there was no organic separatist movement with any traction in those areas, there was a Russian invasion by Russians who did corrupt some locals to support them, but the driving force was always Russia. That it was Russian invasion and control, not a separatist movement as Russian propaganda claims, was confirmed by a very recent ECHR ruling.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3141
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:07 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:57 pm
Yes, free and fair is problematic, not just because historically waves of Russians have been pushed into the regions and waves of previous occupants turfed out, but because so many people who lived there until recently have fled for safety. While I'm not clear how a free and fair referendum would turn out, I can't see any outcome which Russia would tolerate that doesn't give them Crimea, and vice versa with Ukraine and the Donbas.
This. Russia will accept the loss of their occupation of Crimea and the Donbas when the alternative to accepting it is worse, and that needs to be a focus of our sanctions and military aid. The exact nature depends on the situation on the ground, but for now, we need to focus on giving Ukraine what they need to drive the Russians out of all of occupied Ukraine regardless of their opinion on the matter - the successful liberation of right-bank Kherson gives a good template for how to effect the liberation of Crimea.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 6122
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:37 pm

I agree with the problem of who would be the electorate. It would not be acceptable to only allow current residents to vote. It would be very difficult to include all former residents who have fled, and exclude people who arrived after 2014. It might not be impossible, but collecting and verifying residence claims and counter-claims would be daunting.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3141
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:51 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:37 pm
I agree with the problem of who would be the electorate. It would not be acceptable to only allow current residents to vote. It would be very difficult to include all former residents who have fled, and exclude people who arrived after 2014. It might not be impossible, but collecting and verifying residence claims and counter-claims would be daunting.
That's not the only problem with this intensely stupid idea.

There's also the problem that what Russia successfully passed off as "Separatism" was a Russian invasion, and a bit of collaboration by those they had corrupted does not alter that fact.

Talking about a referendum means buying into the idea that there is a legitimate separatist movement separate from the Russian invasion. There wasn't and isn't.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3141
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Feb 01, 2023 11:49 pm

Russians just hit a block of flats in Kramatorsk with an Iskander, one of the few reasonably accurate missiles they have, which tells us that's what they meant to do. Just, you know, in case you were thinking it was acceptable for Putin to get any kind of political win or retain any part of Ukraine.

Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 1958
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:19 am

Putin unveils a new bust of Stalin at Volgograd and in his speech reacts to Germany pledging to supply tanks to Ukraine
"Those who draw European countries, including Germany, into a new war with Russia, and ... expect to win a victory over Russia on the battlefield, apparently don't understand that a modern war with Russia will be quite different for them," he added.

"We don't send our tanks to their borders but we have the means to respond, and it won't end with the use of armoured vehicles, everyone must understand that."

As Putin finished speaking, the audience gave him a standing ovation.
Once again Putin alludes to pushing the big red button.
The Russian population is still behind him and they seem willing to be immolated in the fireball, all for Mother Russia.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-expected-c ... 34377.html
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

User avatar
Grumble
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3909
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Grumble » Fri Feb 03, 2023 6:38 am

I’d be worried for the safety of anyone at a Putin speech who didn’t give a standing ovation.
A bit churlish

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 6122
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:53 am

Germany to approve the export of 88 Leopard 1s, also looking into buying 15 Gepards from Qatar to donate to Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... einmetall/

User avatar
headshot
Dorkwood
Posts: 1170
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by headshot » Fri Feb 03, 2023 3:21 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:19 am
Putin unveils a new bust of Stalin at Volgograd and in his speech reacts to Germany pledging to supply tanks to Ukraine
"Those who draw European countries, including Germany, into a new war with Russia, and ... expect to win a victory over Russia on the battlefield, apparently don't understand that a modern war with Russia will be quite different for them," he added.

"We don't send our tanks to their borders but we have the means to respond, and it won't end with the use of armoured vehicles, everyone must understand that."

As Putin finished speaking, the audience gave him a standing ovation.
Once again Putin alludes to pushing the big red button.
The Russian population is still behind him and they seem willing to be immolated in the fireball, all for Mother Russia.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-expected-c ... 34377.html
f.ck off.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3141
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Feb 03, 2023 3:34 pm

headshot wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 3:21 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:19 am
Putin unveils a new bust of Stalin at Volgograd and in his speech reacts to Germany pledging to supply tanks to Ukraine
"Those who draw European countries, including Germany, into a new war with Russia, and ... expect to win a victory over Russia on the battlefield, apparently don't understand that a modern war with Russia will be quite different for them," he added.

"We don't send our tanks to their borders but we have the means to respond, and it won't end with the use of armoured vehicles, everyone must understand that."

As Putin finished speaking, the audience gave him a standing ovation.
Once again Putin alludes to pushing the big red button.
The Russian population is still behind him and they seem willing to be immolated in the fireball, all for Mother Russia.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-expected-c ... 34377.html
f.ck off.
This. Russia will not escalate against the west because they are radically weaker than the west, nearly as weak, in fact, as that rotting mass Herainestold and other fascist bootlickers have where most people would have a brain.

Post Reply