The Invasion of Ukraine

[Woodchopper]

Good interview on many subjects with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-defens ... 27563.html

[Woodchopper]

ISW think Kremlin drone more likely to be staged: https://understandingwar.org/background ... may-3-2023

ISW are pretty uneven. Some of the analysis is good but they are prone to publishing click bait speculations.

[jimbob]

ISW think Kremlin drone more likely to be staged: https://understandingwar.org/background ... may-3-2023

ISW are pretty uneven. Some of the analysis is good but they are prone to publishing click bait speculations.

Yes.

I think we can be sure it wasn't a serious attempt to kill Putin.

Beyond that, the question of who benefits is difficult. It probably makes the Russian MOD look weak. But then there are others than Ukraine that want to do that. Some of whom would want to blame Ukraine

[Grumble]

Good interview on many subjects with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-defens ... 27563.html

It struck me reading that interview that the prewar population of Bakhmut was about 71,000. That’s about the same size as Macclesfield, to use a reference local to me. The amount of effort spent to try to capture Macclesfield is staggering.

[Gfamily]

Good interview on many subjects with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-defens ... 27563.html

It struck me reading that interview that the prewar population of Bakhmut was about 71,000. That’s about the same size as Macclesfield, to use a reference local to me. The amount of effort spent to try to capture Macclesfield is staggering.

I don't think it works to make comparisons of 'significance' based on populations in different countries. Our town in NW England has a population of about 70K but isn't important enough to even have a Tesco.

The most significant town to our holiday home in France (it's a locally significant town - an administrative centre) has a population of less than 3500. Our three major local cities have populations of 47,000, 87,000 and 134,000.

I'd expect cities and towns in Ukraine to be more scaled in line with France than England

[Grumble]

Good interview on many subjects with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-defens ... 27563.html

It struck me reading that interview that the prewar population of Bakhmut was about 71,000. That’s about the same size as Macclesfield, to use a reference local to me. The amount of effort spent to try to capture Macclesfield is staggering.

I don't think it works to make comparisons of 'significance' based on populations in different countries. Our town in NW England has a population of about 70K but isn't important enough to even have a Tesco.

The most significant town to our holiday home in France (it's a locally significant town - an administrative centre) has a population of less than 3500. Our three major local cities have populations of 47,000, 87,000 and 134,000.

I'd expect cities and towns in Ukraine to be more scaled in line with France than England

Maybe Bahkmut is more significant, but size wise they would be about the same.

[Woodchopper]

Aside from symbolism, the significance of Bakhmut is that it’s on several roads and out on the steppe a city is much more defensible than the surrounding countryside.

There’s now nothing else there worth sacrificing lives. It’s all been destroyed.

[EACLucifer]

Aside from symbolism, the significance of Bakhmut is that it’s on several roads and out on the steppe a city is much more defensible than the surrounding countryside.

There’s now nothing else there worth sacrificing lives. It’s all been destroyed.

The one thing there worth defending is fighting there rather than the same happening in Kramatorsk or Sloviansk.

Also that part of the Donbas is rolling hills more than open steppe, though the point stands that cities provide more defensible terrain than almost anywhere else.

[EACLucifer]

Good interview on many subjects with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-defens ... 27563.html

It struck me reading that interview that the prewar population of Bakhmut was about 71,000. That’s about the same size as Macclesfield, to use a reference local to me. The amount of effort spent to try to capture Macclesfield is staggering.

I don't think it works to make comparisons of 'significance' based on populations in different countries. Our town in NW England has a population of about 70K but isn't important enough to even have a Tesco.

The most significant town to our holiday home in France (it's a locally significant town - an administrative centre) has a population of less than 3500. Our three major local cities have populations of 47,000, 87,000 and 134,000.

I'd expect cities and towns in Ukraine to be more scaled in line with France than England

Bakhmut is commonly called the 56th biggest town in Ukraine. Going by Wikipedia, it's the 58th. The UK equivalents by rank would be Blackburn and Grimsby. By absolute size, though, those are both about twice the size of Bakhmut.

The following settlements were liberated during the ongoing Battle of Bakhmut;

Kupiansk, three eighths the size of Bakhmut
Izium, two thirds the size of Bakhmut
Vovchansk, about a quarter the size of Bakhmut
Lyman, a bit over a quarter the size of Bakhmut
Snihurivka, about a sixth the size of Bakhmut
Beryslav, about a sixth the size of Bakhmut
Kherson, almost four times the size of Bakhmut

[EACLucifer]

Russia destroyed a Red Cross warehouse in Odesa. Not sure if deliberately targetted - Russia likes to target food supplies and other necessities for the existence of life - or due to use of missiles like the Kh22 which is hard to intercept but very inaccurate due to being a repurposed anti-shipping missile with a terminal guidance system that only really works on ships.

[jimbob]

https://f24.my/9TbS

Want to boast that you fought for the homeland, but without risking your life? Welcome to OBTF Cascade, the Russian military unit that allows career politicians and their military-aged sons to play war in Ukraine – at a safe and comfortable distance from the blood being spilled on the frontline.

[Martin Y]

https://f24.my/9TbS

Want to boast that you fought for the homeland, but without risking your life? Welcome to OBTF Cascade, the Russian military unit that allows career politicians and their military-aged sons to play war in Ukraine – at a safe and comfortable distance from the blood being spilled on the frontline.

As Capt Darling said, it's a man's life in the women's auxiliary balloon corps.

While it's not even slightly surprising that Russian elites can find a safe spot well behind the lines, it's pretty hilarious that they have an entire unit established just to churn them through, providing photo ops of pretending to go and fight.

[shpalman]

nothing trivial I hope

[bjn]

Polonium tiffin? He popping his clogs being a prelude to annexing Belarus?

[jimbob]

Polonium tiffin? He popping his clogs being a prelude to annexing Belarus?

I was wondering about something like that

[EACLucifer]

Polonium tiffin? He popping his clogs being a prelude to annexing Belarus?

On the one hand, destabilising the situation in Belarus could go very badly for Putin and he hasn't got the troops to hold down Belarus should people demonstrate as they did last time Lukashenko stole an election.

On the other hand, is Putin aware of this? He's not exactly been making rational decisions or demonstrating awareness of Russia's limitations in decisionmaking in the last couple of years.

[jimbob]

nothing trivial I hope

https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-wee ... s-by-2030/

Leaked document reveals alleged Kremlin plan to take over Belarus by 2030
A group of U.S. and European media outlets, including the Kyiv Independent, has obtained a 17-page document allegedly detailing Russia's plans to subjugate Belarus and dismantle its independence.

The document details Russia's future steps to take full control of Belarusian political, economic, and military spheres by the end of the decade.

According to the document, by 2030, Belarus should have a single currency and tax system with Russia, and its media space must be under Russian control. The Belarusian army must comply with Russian regulations, while all key military production must be transferred from Belarus to Russia.

[EACLucifer]

Russia shelled a hospital in Dnipro yesterday. The weapon they did it with was probably an S-300, it's accurate enough in that role, though not especially accurate, to indicate that they were aiming at the hospital. That's also congruent with their behaviour in Syria.

They also hit a dam, the very definition of a work containing dangerous forces. Those should not be struck either.

The warcrimes continue, even when the frontline is barely moving.

[EACLucifer]

Heavy air raids against Ukrainian civilians last night and the night before, and now daytime attacks. These consist of suicide drones, as well as cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and aeroballistic missiles. Ukrainian air defences are doing their best, they really are, but the only truly effective way to stop missile attack is to make it untenable to launch the damn things.