Nitter link for you....
https://nitter.net/samagreene/status/17 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
Nitter link for you....
The "All wars end in negotiation" thing bothers me. WW2 in Europe didnt in any meaningful way end in negotiation - except between the victor powers.bjn wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 7:44 pmNitter link for you....
https://nitter.net/samagreene/status/17 ... 1zY-PW4R9w
I think we'll have to agree to differ on WW2 in Europe. My point is that the German state had effectively ceased to exist by the time Doenitz became leader as basicaly last man standing of the inner circle. The allies did not negotiate terms with a German state, but the administration of surrender. And effecitvely dismantled Germany afterwards. I know less about the other conflicts but my impression is that Japan did surrender as a state after the emperors famous "The war situation has developed not necessarily to Japans advantage" broadcast.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 6:53 amOf course if you look hard enough you can find an example of a war that definitively ended without negotiations.
But end of WW2, the Soviet Afghan war and the US war in Iraq all involved negotiations. The victorious armies in 1945 wanted to ensure the orderly surrender of German, Japanese and Italian forces. The Soviet Union signed a peace accord in Geneva to ensure the safe withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan. The US and Iraqi governments negotiated the terms of the US withdrawal of its troops.
Of course these negotiations took place when one side had been victorious on the battlefield. That’s the point. Victories give one side or other weight in the negotiations.
The best case scenario for Ukraine is that there would be negotiations with Russia which end the war with a peace agreement that specifies a Russian withdrawal to the 1992 borders (and of course other aspects).
https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/- ... id3020558/Ukrainian fighter pilots will begin their training in Denmark with Norwegian F-16`s.
Defence minister Bjørn Arild Gram visited the airfield in Bodø this week, where the remaining preparations for the F-16s are being conducted before a mission. Norway is presenting two F-16 fighter jets that will train and educate Ukrainian personnel in Denmark. Norway is also sending down ten instructors that will aid in the training and education. – The contribution of F-16 from the military sector is nothing more than impressive, states the defence minister.
Ukrainian pilots have experience with a different fighter jet and will now be trained to use the F-16 systems. At the same time, Ukrainian technicians will be trained in Denmark, USA and Belgium.
The Norwegian Air Force has already presented instructors that will take part in the training, which will take place in Skyldstrup. This program is multinational and will be led by Denmark. - The span of this deployment to Denmark will be decided through dialog with the other partners of this program, says the defence minister.
500km range, 480kg of high explosive, desperately need to level a bridge or two. Hopefully some movement from Scholz soon."Ukraine needs more ammunition, more spare parts, and we need to mobilize the Taurus immediately to make it difficult for Russia to resupply for good,"
09:23 GMThttps://tass.com/politics/1736497 wrote:Air defense forces down drone over village outside Russia’s Belgorod — governor
According to preliminary data, there were no casualties or damage
MOSCOW, January 24. /TASS/. Russian air defense forces downed an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that targeted Belgorod, without causing any casualties, governor of the Russian borderline region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said.
"In the Belgorod municipal district, air defense forces shot down an UAV over the village of Blizhneye. First responders have yet to clarify information about the consequences on the ground," the official wrote on his Telegram channel.
According to preliminary data, there were no casualties or damage, Gladkov added.
10:18 GMThttps://tass.com/politics/1736509 wrote:Governor of Russia’s Belgorod Region departs for Korocha district in wake of incident
According to Vyacheslav Gladkov, a team of investigators and Emergencies Ministry employees are currently working at the scene
MOSCOW, January 24. /TASS/. The governor of Russia’s borderline Belgorod Region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, has reported an incident in the Korocha municipal district, without elaborating.
"There is an emergency in the Korocha district. A team of investigators and Emergencies Ministry employees are currently working at the scene. I have rescheduled my business plans and departed for the district," Gladkov wrote on his Telegram channel as he promised to provide details later.
Earlier, air raid sirens went off in Belgorod and adjacent areas.
https://tass.com/defense/1736555 wrote:MOSCOW, January 24. /TASS/.
A military transport plane Ilyushin-76 crashed in the Belgorod Region on Wednesday morning, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
The plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, six crew and three escorts.
"On January 24 this year an Ilyushin-76 transport plane crashed in the Belgorod Region during a scheduled flight at about 11 a.m. Moscow time (8 a.m. GMT). There were 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war who were being moved to the Belgorod Region for an exchange, and three escorts on board," the Defense Ministry said.
The Aerospace Force has dispatched a panel of inquiry to probe into the incident.
Earlier, the governor of the Belgorod Region, said on his Telegram channel the incident occurred in the Korocha district. He did not elaborate. A team of investigators and Emergency Ministry personnel are working at the site of the crash.
I suspect that if there had been 65 POWs on board the Russian authorities would have posted close up pictures of the bodies. As far as I know there’s been nothing.
According to various reports* on Twitter, the list of 65 POWs included the name of 17 that had been repatriated 3 weeks ago.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 9:07 pmI suspect that if there had been 65 POWs on board the Russian authorities would have posted close up pictures of the bodies. As far as I know there’s been nothing.
According to this report of the crash, "an exchange had been due to take place at the Kolotilovka checkpoint on the border between Russia and Ukraine". I don't know how typical that would be, though.
I have heard of some early exchanges taking place in Turkey. But there have now been quite a few, and maybe they now make them at the border. The Russians also mentioned a second plane containing more PoWs for the exchange, that was flying towards Belgorod, and turned back. I'm sure the Ukrainians would say if the agreed exchange location was different from what the Russians said.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 11:31 pmAccording to this report of the crash, "an exchange had been due to take place at the Kolotilovka checkpoint on the border between Russia and Ukraine". I don't know how typical that would be, though.Martin Y wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 11:00 pmYouTubers like Suchomimus have noted the geolocation suggests the plane had recently left Belgorod and was heading north east, suggesting that didn't support the idea of its bringing POWs for a swap. But I thought swaps tend to happen in other, neutral countries, so it wouldn't be inconsistent with taking the POWs there from where they were being held in Russia.
https://www.ft.com/content/83f8a7e9-dd4 ... pe=nongiftOne reason for western officials’ alarm is Russia’s revival of its industrial defence machine over the past year, which took place at a speed many in the west had thought impossible.
Russia churned out 4mn artillery shells and several hundred tanks during the year. It will recruit another 400,000 men this year without resorting to full-scale mobilisation, Ukrainian officials forecast.
At the same time, Nato’s own future has been cast into doubt by the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Trump last weekend said he would “encourage” Russia to attack any Nato member that failed to reach the alliance’s target of defence spending of 2 per cent of gross domestic product.
While Russia’s army is heavily deployed in Ukraine and has suffered huge losses during two years of conflict, most western officials expect that it would be able to reconstitute its forces within five to six years.
“We know that adversaries are always looking at new ways to conduct war,” UK defence secretary Grant Shapps told reporters on Thursday. “That’s why we need to be on our mettle. That’s why we need to be ready.”
Other western defence officials in recent weeks have issued an unprecedented number of public warnings of the possibility of a broader conflict in Europe with a more confident and rearmed Russia.
Denmark’s defence minister Troels Lund Poulsen said last week that Russia could test Nato’s mutual defence clause “within a three to five-year period”. That followed similar warnings from colleagues from Sweden, the UK, Romania, Germany and senior officials at Nato itself since the start of the year.
Officials said that one reason for the dire warnings was to prepare societies for the potential danger, and to ensure that civilian infrastructure was ready for the possible consequences.
That includes ensuring national energy supplies and stockpiles are resilient enough, that communications networks are secure and could function properly in the event of war, and that critical infrastructure, including roads and railways, could handle the large amount of military equipment that would need to be transported across Europe.
Nato’s Joint Support and Enabling Command, an alliance command centre in the southern German city of Ulm, is drawing up plans for how Nato military forces would deploy around Europe and be sustained and reinforced in the event of a conflict, officials said.
https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1758 ... 83645?s=20Ukrianian intelligence officials have also told me this. They are worried that Russia’s military will return to pre-2022 invasion levels by 2028.
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brus ... in-munich/While Brussels is abuzz with talk about rearming, the bloc is falling short on its commitment to deliver ammo to Ukraine. That’s partly by choice.
FRANCE DIGS IN ON ‘BUY EUROPEAN’: While the bloc ramps up shell production, it could seek to alleviate Ukraine’s immediate shortage by using EU money to jointly purchase ammo on the global market.
Non: Yet, according to three EU diplomats, a small group of countries led by France is blocking attempts to use EU money for buying shells from outside of the bloc. The reason? European arms manufacturers need orders to justify ramping up their production.
How it went down: Earlier this week at a meeting of the Political and Security Committee, a majority of EU countries was in favor of allowing EU money to be used to buy non-EU produced shells as an emergency measure to help Ukraine, the diplomats told Playbook. But France, Greece and Cyprus opposed the effort, the diplomats said.