The Invasion of Ukraine

[headshot]

And yes, things can move very fast. The unthinkable can become the inevitable in days.

The unthinkable is becoming conventional wisdom. The American President is talking about Armageddon. We will be lucky to make it to Guy Fawkes Day.

Jesus Christ. Give it a rest, eh?

[Opti]

Jesus Christ. Give it a rest, eh?

Do you understand how dangerous resting can be? A huge number of people die every day while 'resting'.

[shpalman]

Jesus Christ. Give it a rest, eh?

Do you understand how dangerous resting can be? A huge number of people die every day while 'resting'.

Jesus rested for three days.

[Opti]

Jesus Christ. Give it a rest, eh?

Do you understand how dangerous resting can be? A huge number of people die every day while 'resting'.

Jesus rested for three days.

Has he been seen after that? Eh?

[Martin_B]

Do you understand how dangerous resting can be? A huge number of people die every day while 'resting'.

Jesus rested for three days.

Has he been seen after that? Eh?

I had some toast the other day ...

[EACLucifer]

And yes, things can move very fast. The unthinkable can become the inevitable in days.

The unthinkable is becoming conventional wisdom. The American President is talking about Armageddon. We will be lucky to make it to Guy Fawkes Day.

You know, you really remind me of this song. Apart from the bits about a wife, of course.

Have you heard what they said on the news today?
Have you heard what is coming to us all?
That the world as we know it will be coming to an end
Have you heard? Have you heard?
He sees them in the distance, when the darkened clouds roll
He could feel tension in the atmosphere
He would look in the mirror see an old man now
Does it matter they survive somehow?
They said there's nothing can be done about the situation
They said there's nothing you can do at all
To sit and wait around for something to occur
Did you know? Did you know?
As he stares across the garden looking at the meadows
And wonders if they'll ever grow again
The desperation of the situation getting graver
Getting ready when the wild wind blows
Have you seen what they said on the news today?
Have you heard what they said about us all?
Do you know what is happening to just every one of us?
Have you heard? Have you heard?
There will be a catastrophe the like we've never seen
There will be something that will light the sky
That the world as we know it it will never be the same
Did you know? Did you know?
He carries everything into the shelter not a fuss
Getting ready when the moment comes
He has enough supplies to last them for a year or two
Good to have because you never know
They tell us nothing that we don't already know about
They tell us nothing that is real at all
They only fill us with the stuff that they want
Did you know? Did you know?
He's nearly finished with the preparations for the day
He's getting tired that'll do for now
They are preparing for the very worst to come to them
Getting ready when the wild wind blows
He sees the picture on the wall it's falling down
Upside down
He sees a teardrop from his wife roll down her face
Saying Grace
Remember times they had they flash right through his mind
Left behind
Of a lifetime spent together long ago
Will be gone
They've been preparing for some weeks now
For when the crucial moment comes
To take their refuge in the shelter
Let them prepare for what will come
They make a tea and sit there waiting
They're in the shelter feeling snug
Not long to wait for absolution
Don't make a fuss just sit and wait
Can't believe all the lying
All the screens are denying
That the moments of truth have begun
Can't you see it on the TV?
Don't believe them in the least bit
Now the days of our ending have begun
Say a prayer when it's all over
Survivors unite all as one
Got to try and help each other
Got the will to overcome
I can't believe all the lying
All the screens are denying
That the moments of truth have begun
Can't you see it on the TV?
Don't believe them in the least bit
Now the days of our ending have begun
When they found them had their arms wrapped around each other
Their tins of poison laying near by their clothes
The day they both mistook an earthquake for the fallout
Just another when the wild wind blows

[Woodchopper]

The Ukraine war as Middle Earth.
https://twitter.com/me_of_ee/status/155 ... t9ikMT2N-Q

Russia LARPs the tower of Barad-dûr.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... V7XA2tF1fw

[EACLucifer]

Russia is bombing Kyiv with long range missiles. So far, not a hint they've hit anything but civilian targets, or tried to hit anything but civilian targets. There are casualties.

[headshot]

On Radio 4 just now. Multiple strikes across multiple cities. Seems they’re targeting cultural sites - museums, symphony buildings etc.

[lpm]

Totally unacceptable we didn't send them air defences.

Obviously you can't intercept every missile targeted at every civilian target. But leaving the terrorists an open door is not what the west should be about.

[plodder]

Barrel bombs soon

[EACLucifer]

Barrel bombs soon

When Turkey supplied stingers to Syrian rebels a few years back, it put a stop to the barrel bombs. To drop a barrel bomb, a helicopter has to basically stop over the target. It makes them sitting ducks. One squadron of old Mi-8s had been responsible for basically all the barrel bombs. Once a couple had been downed, the rest realised they couldn't safely unload explosives onto civilians any more, and stopped. It could have been done the moment they first used the tactic, and should have been done the moment they first used the tactic.

Ukraine's air defences can keep Russian bombers and fighter bombers and helicopters well away from cities like Kyiv, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia. They are less well equipped to take on cruise missiles, both conventional, and the Iranian "suicide drones", which really are just a form of cruise missile. Western air defences like the NASAMS and IRIS-T systems promised but not yet delivered are better at that. Britain's retiring Rapier batteries at the moment, and they'd be useful too.

The other thing that would be useful would be supplying Ukraine with the long range precision weapons needed to hit the bases these weapons are launched from, and the aircraft the aircraft-launched ones are launched from on the ground, be they in Russia or Belarus.

[TopBadger]

The other thing that would be useful would be supplying Ukraine with the long range precision weapons needed to hit the bases these weapons are launched from, and the aircraft the aircraft-launched ones are launched from on the ground, be they in Russia or Belarus.

You were right when you said this months ago - and you're still right today. These long range attacks on civilians by Russia are more likely to bring longer range arms to bear for Ukraine.

[EACLucifer]

Apparently Russian propagandists aren't even trying to pretend they are hitting military targets.

And for those wondering, yes, the Kerch Straits Bridge is a legitimate military target, having been used for, and built for, this kind of cargo.

[Woodchopper]

Good thread on the probability of use of nuclear weapons: https://twitter.com/SethBaum/status/157 ... zRWatn41_A

Certainly, there isn't an obvious military or political utility for Russian use of nuclear weapons.

But then, the same could be said for the invasion.

[Herainestold]

But then, the same could be said for the invasion.

[EACLucifer]

These strikes were, in part, done to appeal to a domestic audience. That's why Putin's propagandists are boasting about them. They aren't even pretending to be hitting military targets. And some Russians are responding gleefully.

[TimW]

Damaged bridge possibly causing a bit of a problem after all.

SIMFEROPOL, October 10. /TASS/. Boats and ferries operating on the Kerch Strait crossing have already transported over 450 motor vehicles and about 3,000 individuals, Acting Minister of Transport of Crimea Nikolay Lukashenko told TASS on Monday.

"More than 450 vehicles and 3,000 persons," Lukashenko said when asked how many passengers and cars have been transported by the ferries since the start of their work.

He specified that the ferry, which allows for the transport of large-capacity vehicles, moved more than 100 cars during the first day of its operation. Priority is given to trucks carrying medicine and perishable goods. Other drivers are advised to reach Crimea via the Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions and Donbass.

[Herainestold]

Boris Johnson stymied peace negotiations in the spring.

On 9 April, Johnson made a surprise visit to Kyiv where he reportedly told Zelensky that the UK would not be party to any such agreement, and pressured him to break off negotiations. According to the Ukrainian newspaper Ukrainska Pravda: “Johnson’s position was that the collective West […] now felt Putin was not really as powerful as they had previously imagined, and that here was a chance to ‘press him’”.

Three days later, Zelensky informed journalists that negotiations had reached a “dead end” and the war entered a new, intensive phase. This was not the first time the Ukrainian premier had performed such an about-turn. In the 2019 election, he ran as a peace candidate – promising to end the fighting in the Donbas by striking a deal with Russia – and received an impressive mandate. But as the Ukrainian sociologist Volodymyr Ishchenko explains, Zelensky subsequently failed to build either an effective political vehicle or a mass movement to advance this policy. In their absence, he had no bulwark against “the most powerful agents in Ukrainian politics: the oligarchic clans, the radical-nationalists, liberal civil society and the western governments”, none of whom favoured a Minsk-style settlement. Thanks to the marginalisation of the Ukrainian left after the Euromaidan revolution, the country still lacks a coordinated political bloc capable of challenging such interests. So when Johnson signalled his opposition to a peace deal last April, he was intervening in a domestic situation where Zelensky’s political capital was already limited. The latter had good reason to doubt whether he could force through a deal without the support of the “collective West”.

https://novaramedia.com/2022/10/07/liz- ... n-ukraine/

[Martin Y]

That fails at the first step of trying to convince us that a low-effort, entitled, lazy slug like Boris Johnson, who only wanted to be in the top job rather than actually do the job, would seek to provoke war when the UK economy is already f.cked by Brexit and Covid. Not remotely credible Russian propaganda.

[Bird on a Fire]

That fails at the first step of trying to convince us that a low-effort, entitled, lazy slug like Boris Johnson, who only wanted to be in the top job rather than actually do the job, would seek to provoke war when the UK economy is already f.cked by Brexit and Covid. Not remotely credible Russian propaganda.

Seeing as the source is Ukrainska Pravda, your last sentence should presumably read "Not remotely credible Ukrainian propaganda."

Here's the article (from May) https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/5/7344206/ Their quote is accurate.

[EACLucifer]

That fails at the first step of trying to convince us that a low-effort, entitled, lazy slug like Boris Johnson, who only wanted to be in the top job rather than actually do the job, would seek to provoke war when the UK economy is already f.cked by Brexit and Covid. Not remotely credible Russian propaganda.

Seeing as the source is Ukrainska Pravda, your last sentence should presumably read "Not remotely credible Ukrainian propaganda."

Here's the article (from May) https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/5/7344206/ Their quote is accurate.

Novara Media are a steaming pile Corbynite sh.t, inflicted upon the world by imbeciles like Bastani, who has happily been attending events alongside Lindsey Gerbil and all the other f.cking idiots, tankies and tyrannophile bootlickers who like to blame NATO for Putin's imperial war.

And "negotiations" in would have meant leaving territory in Russian hands. Territory inhabited by people. People the Russians raped, murdered, tortured and otherwise oppressed.

Just yesterday, there was a video going round of the bodies of murdered civilians being thrown into a pit. It's not that surprising, I suppose. We've got testimony of Russians mass murdering civilians in occupied areas, and plenty of mass graves have been found. Still, even if it's not a surprise, it's still appalling to see. A reminder of what the "negotiated settlement" c.nts thought Ukrainians should be willing to endure, if they even thought at all, all were capable of thought, which the likes of Bastani aren't.

PS. If you are capable of reading the original article, then you are capable of reading this line "The first thing was the revelation of the atrocities, rapes, murders, massacres, looting, indiscriminate bombings and hundreds and thousands of other war crimes committed by Russian troops in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories". As someone who actually reads what Ukrainians have to say about the conflict, I'll say this now; once Ukraine had a) proven they had the military strength to liberate parts of their country and b) seen what the Russians had been doing in those parts of the country, then any deal ceding anything to Russia was done for. It couldn't be done. If Zelenskyy had ordered it, the orders would not have been followed.

[Martin Y]

Well then I apologise. I didn't follow the link as the idea that Boris might do anything so energetic as to provoke a war is laughable. I do note that the piece is not putting any kind of Ukrainian view though. It's more "If only the left were in power in Britain, not you Labour, the left left, we could have negotiated a peace deal end everything would be much better".

[Herainestold]

That fails at the first step of trying to convince us that a low-effort, entitled, lazy slug like Boris Johnson, who only wanted to be in the top job rather than actually do the job, would seek to provoke war when the UK economy is already f.cked by Brexit and Covid. Not remotely credible Russian propaganda.

Seeing as the source is Ukrainska Pravda, your last sentence should presumably read "Not remotely credible Ukrainian propaganda."

Here's the article (from May) https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/5/7344206/ Their quote is accurate.

So how much was circumstances (Bucha,etc) and how much was Johnson's pressure?

[EACLucifer]

Well then I apologise. I didn't follow the link as the idea that Boris might do anything so energetic as to provoke a war is laughable. I do note that the piece is not putting any kind of Ukrainian view though. It's more "If only the left were in power in Britain, not you Labour, the left left, we could have negotiated a peace deal end everything would be much better".

By April, there wasn't any chance of provoking or starting a war. The war started in 2014, and escalated in 2022 when Putin launched the full scale imperialist invasion.

Take a look at Iran right now. The likes of Novara Media desparately sought to place a man who did propaganda work for that regime in Number 10. That should tell you how welcoming you should be to their views, and the views of people who treat them as a credible source.