The Invasion of Ukraine

[Woodchopper]

House progressives retract Russia-diplomacy letter amid Dem firestorm
Party lawmakers were blindsided by Monday's release of a letter calling for direct negotiations in Ukraine, according to several people familiar with the situation.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/2 ... y-00063338

[Woodchopper]

House progressives retract Russia-diplomacy letter amid Dem firestorm
Party lawmakers were blindsided by Monday's release of a letter calling for direct negotiations in Ukraine, according to several people familiar with the situation.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/2 ... y-00063338

“It is a bad colonial habit to suppose that ultimately peace depends upon the wishes of the great powers and the great powers alone, and even progressive and liberal people can fall into this colonialist reflex.

https://raskin.house.gov/2022/10/raskin ... nd-freedom

[Martin Y]

Russian propaganda has now decided that there is a need to, and I quote, "de-Satanise" Ukraine.

Their earnest search for Nazis to root out sounded like a 16th century witch hunt. Now perhaps it straightforwardly is one. It would be utterly hilarious if only it wasn't about torturing and murdering people.

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... oPXSUE_1bw

Christo Grozev
@christogrozev
·
8h
Prigozhin now officially throwing the gauntlet at Shoigu. There's no off-ramp from this.

FgBykG6XgBUc50D.jpeg (451.39 KiB) Viewed 1498 times

Some very unsubtle attacks on Shoigu.
.

"Therefore, I do not think that anyone has studied this war from textbooks. Those fighters who act effectively today have gone through dozens of wars. And many of those who are the so-called "personnel" have not learned anything except how to click their heels, wear tsatski and write beautiful reports."

<Snip>

"is necessary to work on mistakes, including tactical and personnel ones. Let the plowmen continue to work for the sake of victory and minimizing losses, and the idlers, Ramzan Akhmatovich knows who I'm talking about, should immediately get out."


Interesting that Putin's not stopping this. Prigozhin is acting as though he's totally irrelevant, which doesn't bode well for his long term future.

Elsewhere I quoted Klytus in Flash Gordon about Putin's inaction, because this seems like a challenge to Putin's authority.

"Put down your weapons! No one, but no one, dies in the palace without a command from the Emperor."

That is how strong autocrats need to deal with fighting amongst their lieutenants.

[EACLucifer]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... oPXSUE_1bw

Christo Grozev
@christogrozev
·
8h
Prigozhin now officially throwing the gauntlet at Shoigu. There's no off-ramp from this.

FgBykG6XgBUc50D.jpeg

Some very unsubtle attacks on Shoigu.
.

"Therefore, I do not think that anyone has studied this war from textbooks. Those fighters who act effectively today have gone through dozens of wars. And many of those who are the so-called "personnel" have not learned anything except how to click their heels, wear tsatski and write beautiful reports."

<Snip>

"is necessary to work on mistakes, including tactical and personnel ones. Let the plowmen continue to work for the sake of victory and minimizing losses, and the idlers, Ramzan Akhmatovich knows who I'm talking about, should immediately get out."


Interesting that Putin's not stopping this. Prigozhin is acting as though he's totally irrelevant, which doesn't bode well for his long term future.

Elsewhere I quoted Klytus in Flash Gordon about Putin's inaction, because this seems like a challenge to Putin's authority.

"Put down your weapons! No one, but no one, dies in the palace without a command from the Emperor."

That is how strong autocrats need to deal with fighting amongst their lieutenants.

Shoigu is the obvious scapegoat right now. He's been in his position for a while, and his focus was on keeping establishment interests happy, not building an effective military force.

In addition, he's from an ethnic minority, and doesn't seem to be especially charismatic - he is noted for, among other things, collecting oddly shaped pieces of wood.

[TopBadger]

Saw Putin's speech reported on today... usual parallel universe nonsense. I just find myself wondering how much he believes his own BS.

Also read reports that Russian second and third lines are shooting Russian troops retreating from lines ahead of them.

Being an ordinary Russian must be hellish at the moment, that doesnt let them off the hook for allowing this nonsense to go on though.

[bjn]

I have no idea how I’d behave if I was an “ordinary Russian”. Limited media, most of it censored, extolling the party line and backed up by the threat of very real state violence. I’d like to think I’d be aware of the Putinist b.llsh.t and resist, but maybe I’d be all up for it. Thank goodness it’s not me. So I do feel sorry for the poor bastards shepherded to the slaughter, but it doesn’t mean I think they shouldn’t be fought and killed if necessary.

It just adds to my disgust for the bastards running Russia and all the apologist c.nts out in the West.

[Woodchopper]

I have no idea how I’d behave if I was an “ordinary Russian”. Limited media, most of it censored, extolling the party line and backed up by the threat of very real state violence. I’d like to think I’d be aware of the Putinist b.llsh.t and resist, but maybe I’d be all up for it. Thank goodness it’s not me. So I do feel sorry for the poor bastards shepherded to the slaughter, but it doesn’t mean I think they shouldn’t be fought and killed if necessary.

I get the impression that most people just try to get on with their lives. Not actively supporting but not risking their necks to oppose it either.

[bjn]

During Italian fascism, one side of my family actively resisted and paid for it, including being tortured, shot and sent to Germany as slave labour. Fortunately they all survived, even my uncle who was left for dead after being shot. The other side just kept their heads down and were either too young or too old to be drafted into the war. While I admire my grandparents and uncles who went through hell I don’t despise the other side for just surviving.

[headshot]

Frau HS is from Easy Germany. All of her family were very much “keep head down” folk. Certainly not Party members, but not protestors either. That’s was until Frau HS started joining the Montags Demonstrationen…and the rest is history.

[Grumble]

Frau HS is from Easy Germany. All of her family were very much “keep head down” folk. Certainly not Party members, but not protestors either. That’s was until Frau HS started joining the Montags Demonstrationen…and the rest is history.

Easy Germany sounds easy.

[TimW]

No idea what to make of this news story:
Colonel and general responsible for drone supplies to Russia killed in Iran

[EACLucifer]

No idea what to make of this news story:
Colonel and general responsible for drone supplies to Russia killed in Iran

Being shot and exploding and so on are a job hazard for the IRGC, and have been for a while. On top of the baseline risk of exploding and being shot that IRGC c.nts face, Ukraine also has intelligence services that may wish to see that risk increase.

If the IRGC wants to decrease this risk, they could consider not brutally oppressing the Iranian people, not supplying arms to feed the Russian invasion of Ukraine, not sponsoring terrorists groups and not engaging in imperialist proxy wars across the middle east.

[jimbob]

For a bit of a propaganda fail, check out these pro-Russian memes of Zelensky.

https://twitter.com/NovelSci/status/158 ... iowJMNZq4A

If Ukrainians did them, they'd be a bit cringe.

[jimbob]

Christo Grozev
@christogrozev
·
3h
A short on how Russian intelligence launders fake news by using helpful EU "media".
A leading headline in Russian state media today is that "Poland plans to capture Western Ukraine and hold a referendum". The cited source is "the Belgian portal Modern Democracy".

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... JrSXEsAxCA

Worth a read

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... JrSXEsAxCA

Christo Grozev
@christogrozev
So you wonder what Polish media would come up with this nonsense.. and then you look up it's editor in chief Adam Kamiński never existed, And the photo used for his profile was , does not exist, and his fake account uses a photo of an unsuspecting Lithuanian orthopedist.

[EACLucifer]

Russia appears to be claiming to be abandoning the grain deal over the Ukrainian operation against ships in occupied Sevastopol, however, they were hindering it before that, and reportedly Putin was already looking to end it.

Any attempt to reinstate a blockade should be met with increased supplies of Harpoon missiles to Ukraine, and other appropriate countermeasures to thwart the Black Sea Fleet's attempt to pursue a policy of starvation against the world, including while at anchor in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk.

[jimbob]

Russia appears to be claiming to be abandoning the grain deal over the Ukrainian operation against ships in occupied Sevastopol, however, they were hindering it before that, and reportedly Putin was already looking to end it.

Any attempt to reinstate a blockade should be met with increased supplies of Harpoon missiles to Ukraine, and other appropriate countermeasures to thwart the Black Sea Fleet's attempt to pursue a policy of starvation against the world, including while at anchor in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk.

See also ATACMS - especially as Iran is escalating by supplying SRBMS to Russia

[Bird on a Fire]

Why is Russian psyop often so brazenly crap? Like surely they could easily get untraceable stock images.

[Woodchopper]

Why is Russian psyop often so brazenly crap? Like surely they could easily get untraceable stock images.

Three explanations:

People like us aren’t the target audience.

Russia is trying to do a lot with limited resources.

The person who produced it didn’t care.

[EACLucifer]

Cargo ships are sailing from Ukraine with grain right now. Will the Russians attack them? And if so, what will be the response from the west?

The grain deal was due to expire next month anyway. If Russia refrains from attacking these ships, what will happen then?

[Woodchopper]

Cargo ships are sailing from Ukraine with grain right now. Will the Russians attack them? And if so, what will be the response from the west?

The grain deal was due to expire next month anyway. If Russia refrains from attacking these ships, what will happen then?

The key issue is insurance and whether ship owners want to risk their crew and vessels. Even if Russia doesn't attack a grain ship, insurance costs or nervous shipping companies might make the exports unviable.

[EACLucifer]

Cargo ships are sailing from Ukraine with grain right now. Will the Russians attack them? And if so, what will be the response from the west?

The grain deal was due to expire next month anyway. If Russia refrains from attacking these ships, what will happen then?

The key issue is insurance and whether ship owners want to risk their crew and vessels. Even if Russia doesn't attack a grain ship, insurance costs or nervous shipping companies might make the exports unviable.

Yes. This is an area where western governments can step in, though, offering to underwrite the insurance if needed. Ideally, this would be combined with an approach that saw at least some of each convoy flying the flags of NATO countries, just to make it really clear there'd be a response if they were attacked.

It would also be good if some of the relatively more well off countries dependant on Ukrainian grain could lift a finger to help - Egypt, for example.

[EACLucifer]

There's been another cruise missile barrage. Most reportedly shot down. Footage of shootdowns here. For those not used to seeing them, cruise missile/loitering munition shootdowns look extremely unreal. They just don't look right. More or less what happens is the missile is going along at whatever speed it goes at, and then there's a blast that just hangs still in the air, the forward momentum irrelevant compared to the force of the explosion and the sudden increase in drag due to exploding into lots of little, not particularly aerodynamic, pieces.

One shot down missile reportedly went down in Moldovan territory. This follows previous reports of missiles fired across Moldovan territory to attack Ukraine.

Given the threat to Moldova from the Russian enclave in Transnistria, it might be worth negotiating with their government to position a Patriot/Sky Sabre/SAMP-T battery on Moldovan soil to shoot down incoming missiles, with appropriate troops to defend it, to defend both Moldovan and Ukrainian soil, though it is of course entirely up to the Moldovan government whether or not to accept such an idea.

[lpm]

In Finland people are struggling with the cold. Will bow to Putin's energy blackmail soon.

https://twitter.com/VFinnishProbs/statu ... 4359818240

[EACLucifer]

Russia back in the grain deal for now, apparently.

Because despite all the "Cornered Bear" "Back to the Wall" "Needs an Offramp" and "But Nuclear Threat! NuCLeAR ThrEaT!" nonsense, Putin's Russia did not have an answer to "We won't back down, what are you going to do about it, then?"

And that means the continued export of grain from Ukraine, including a ship carrying many thousands of tonnes of the stuff for the World Food Program, destined for Ethiopia.

We should take this approach more often. Ukraine is winning, but slowly, and coming under attack from long ranged weapons launched from occupied areas beyond the reach of M30/M31 GMLRS and from Russian soil. The west can supply a number of remedies to this problem - MGM-140 ATACMS has been much discussed, as it uses the same launchers as the M30/M31. But there's other options, too.

The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb combines the rocket motor of the now deprecated M26 unguided cluster rocket with an advanced and very accurate glide bomb in service already as an air launched weapon. Range 150km, launched from HIMARS or M270 (both already in service with Ukraine. GLSDB isn't in service anywhere yet, but it combines components that are). Though the warhead is small, it flies fast and has a lot of sectional density, meaning it is very good at hitting hardened targets, and would likely be a good bridge-killer, too.

Storm Shadow/SCALP EG air-launched cruise missiles combine a range of over 560km with a high level of accuracy and a low radar cross section, making it very hard to intercept, while the warhead is a very dangerous 450kg. Range is reduced to "over 250km" for an export version. The related Missile de Croisière Naval pushes that range up to over 1000km, and is conventionally sea-launched, which makes it an ideal candidate for modifying for ground launch.

The Tomahawk cruise missile needs little introduction. Range into the thousands of kilometres (and generally classified), accurate, warhead similar in size to SCALP EG. USed to have truck launched variants, and naval versions launched with a booster, meaning ground launch is viable.

There's plenty of others, and this isn't meant in any way to be a detailed look at any of these systems, just an example of how much more capable the systems being held back are than the ones being sent - for comparison, M31 rockets hit out to 80-90km and have a 91kg blast-frag warhead that isn't very suitable for hardened targets or demolition work.

Meanwhile, in occupied Crimea as well as Russia, the Russians have supply lines - which often cross bridges - supply dumps, air bases with fixed wing aircraft and helicopters used to attack troops and launch air launched munitions especially at southern Ukraine, and launching facilities for Iranian shahed-136 munitions and soon, probably Iranian ballistic missiles too.

Even if just confined to occupied Ukraine, the ability to strike out against aviation facilities, drone/loitering munition facilities and supply dumps would save a lot of Ukrainian lives, both military and civilian. In overall terms, shortening the war - which it would - would probably reduce the Russian death toll, too.

And if anyone is still stupid enough to believe that this is a NATO proxy war or something, just consider how much NATO is holding back - modern tanks, IFVs, aircraft and long-range munitions, for example.