The Invasion of Ukraine

[Herainestold]

Putting aside whether Russia would actually resort to this - here's the latest from Lavrov on what the doctrine in principle could apply to.

Please don't accuse me of scaremongering! It's clearly Lavrov doing the strategic scaremongering - just quoting...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -territory

Nothing wrong with posting that and everyone should be concerned about the risk of nuclear weapons being used.

US national security advisor on the risk of use of nuclear weapons:
“National security adviser Jake Sullivan on "Face the Nation,"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jake-sulli ... 9-25-2022/

tl;dr we take it seriously and we accept the risk.

America takes it seriously but makes no effort to de-escalate.

[Woodchopper]

Russian authorities plan to conscript 1.2 million people for their “partial mobilization,” Meduza has learned from a source close to one of the country’s federal ministries.

Additionally, a source close to Moscow’s leadership told Meduza that up to 16,000 people from the capital are slated to be drafted. This was confirmed by a source close to one of Russia’s federal ministries. Authorities in St. Petersburg plan to draft roughly 3,200 people, according to a source close to the Presidential Envoy to Russia’s Northwestern Federal District.

A source close to one of the country’s federal ministries noted that authorities “recommended keeping recruitments to a minimum” in regional capitals. Instead, the government is conscripting people “in rural areas, where there’s no media, no opposition, and more support [for the war],” said the source.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09/23 ... ion-people

Several different reports that Mobiks are already been sent to the front. "To the most depleted units" Which is a recipe for disaster.

Yes, suggests both desperation by the Russian army and an inability to manage all the people.

[EACLucifer]

Nothing wrong with posting that and everyone should be concerned about the risk of nuclear weapons being used.

US national security advisor on the risk of use of nuclear weapons:
“National security adviser Jake Sullivan on "Face the Nation,"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jake-sulli ... 9-25-2022/

tl;dr we take it seriously and we accept the risk.

America takes it seriously but makes no effort to de-escalate.

You mean capitulate, not de-escalate. Giving in to nuclear threats or invading dictatorships just means more nuclear threats and invasions by dictatorships in the long run.

America is taking it very seriously - that is why they are focussing on deterrence, and making it very clear that going nuclear will come with costs that Putin's regime cannot bear.

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/KristoNurmis/status ... t7q-ZKZZ_w

Part of a thread on why Putin is going ahead with such obviously fake referendums.

A Soviet doctrine of indoctrination.

Putin’s logic is the following: the people of Ukraine have been corrupted by decades of liberal and nationalist propaganda, western-imposed false consciousness that has blinded them of their true and historically predetermined interests – joining Mother Russia. 16/

[EACLucifer]

Here's an excerpt from the Institute for the Study of War's recent summary

Putin emphatically did not say that the Russian nuclear umbrella would cover annexed areas of Ukraine nor did he tie mobilization to the annexation. He addressed partial mobilization, annexation referenda in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, and the possibility of nuclear war in his speech—but as separate topics rather than a coherent whole. The fact that he mentioned all three topics in a single speech was clearly meant to suggest a linkage, but he went out of his way to avoid making any such linkage explicit.

Putin framed his comments about the possibility of Russian nuclear weapons use in the context of supposed Western threats to use nuclear weapons against Russia. He claimed that Western officials were talking about “the possibility and permissibility of using weapons of mass destruction—nuclear weapons—against Russia.” He continued, “I wish to remind those who allow themselves such statements about Russia that our country also has various means of attack...”

Bold in original.

Suffice to say nobody in the west is actually threatening anything of the sort.

Please stop getting over-excited about Russian propaganda re: nuclear weapons. It isn't new. There's no evidence anything's changed on this front. They threaten nuclear attacks over diplomatic slights, getting caught cheating at sports, getting caught poisoning people, stubbed toes and because it's tuesday.

[jimbob]

A Russian draft commissioner has bee shot and reportedly killed in Irkutsk

[FlammableFlower]

A Russian draft commissioner has bee shot and reportedly killed in Irkutsk

This is a serious thread, so I'm not going to make the obvious joke...

[atled]

Reports from Reuters that Russia's Putin to meet Belarus' Lukashenko later today. I wonder how many of Beluru's armed forces are sunddenly going to become Russians?https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-09-26/

[EACLucifer]

Reports from Reuters that Russia's Putin to meet Belarus' Lukashenko later today. I wonder how many of Beluru's armed forces are sunddenly going to become Russians?https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-09-26/

That's something that's not likely to go down very well in Belarus. Lukashenko is walking on a knife edge, trying to balance supporting Russia enough to keep their thugs available to him to crush protest in a country that despises him with trying not to do anything to push the aforementioned country that despises him into open revolt.

[jimbob]

Reports from Reuters that Russia's Putin to meet Belarus' Lukashenko later today. I wonder how many of Beluru's armed forces are sunddenly going to become Russians?https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-09-26/

That's something that's not likely to go down very well in Belarus. Lukashenko is walking on a knife edge, trying to balance supporting Russia enough to keep their thugs available to him to crush protest in a country that despises him with trying not to do anything to push the aforementioned country that despises him into open revolt.

Indeed. See also parts of the Russian Federation.

If you are propping up a puppet, you run a big risk in trying to take their forces to support you.

Also I wonder what impact the mobilisation videos are having on those who haven't yet been mobilised.

These videos obviously come from inside Russia and presumably make it onto internal Russian social media.

I can imagine that if I was a man of military age in , say, Dagestan I might have been thinking on Thursday that it would be less risky to go along with being mobilised. But that after seeing videos of rusty rifles, I'd be getting angry and think Moscow was just planning on using my ethnic group as cannon fodder.

I'd also think the Russian military was less intimidating. And might consider whether independence would be better.

[bjn]

The Rosgvardia are Russia's paramilitary force used to suppress dissent and generally keep the proles in line. A large number of them have been sent to Ukraine to keep the locals down in the occupied areas. They have also been used as front line troops, for which they are neither trained nor equipped. Yesterday there were calls in the Duma to send even more of them to Ukraine as part of the mobilisation. That all means fewer people available to beat protesters and draft dodgers at home. I can also imagine not a few of their (well armed) chaps aren't too keen on ending up on the front lines themselves.

Hopefully it doesn't end well for Putin.

[jimbob]

The Rosgvardia are Russia's paramilitary force used to suppress dissent and generally keep the proles in line. A large number of them have been sent to Ukraine to keep the locals down in the occupied areas. They have also been used as front line troops, for which they are neither trained nor equipped. Yesterday there were calls in the Duma to send even more of them to Ukraine as part of the mobilisation. That all means fewer people available to beat protesters and draft dodgers at home. I can also imagine not a few of their (well armed) chaps aren't too keen on ending up on the front lines themselves.

Hopefully it doesn't end well for Putin.

Yup...

Also

https://twitter.com/dimaFromUkraine/sta ... 9pOVUTXRUA

@dimaFromUkraine
Deputy Mufti of the Crimean Muftiat makes an appeal to Crimean Muslims and to all Muslims in russia, who are facing mobilization - "Find various ways to surrender, [...] ut if you cannot do this, then I know where you ought to shoot. And I think you also understand."

[Gfamily]

For conscription purposes possibly
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... rd-snowden

[jimbob]

It's interesting that some of the conscription disasters are making it to State TV.

[Grumble]

It's interesting that some of the conscription disasters are making it to State TV.

If they didn’t cover real events that everyone knows about they would lose all credibility. To their audience I mean, not to foreigners like us. They’re desperately trying to spin what’s happening.

[bob sterman]

So...

Russian lawmakers may consider incorporation of four Ukrainian regions into Russia on Oct. 4
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-09-27/

It should not be forgotten that it was the recognition of independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics by Russia on February 21st that provided the pretext for the invasion on February 22nd.

The incorporation of regions into Russia on October 4th will simply be taking place as a pretext for Putin's next move - and with that comes an implicit threat...

Russia’s war in Ukraine is at a dangerous tipping point
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/27/euro ... index.html

[jimbob]

So...

Russian lawmakers may consider incorporation of four Ukrainian regions into Russia on Oct. 4
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-09-27/

It should not be forgotten that it was the recognition of independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics by Russia on February 21st that provided the pretext for the invasion on February 22nd.

The incorporation of regions into Russia on October 4th will simply be taking place as a pretext for Putin's next move - and with that comes an implicit threat...

Russia’s war in Ukraine is at a dangerous tipping point
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/27/euro ... index.html

I really can't see any threat working on Ukraine. What are they going to do to Ukraine? Invade? Bomb schools and hospitals?

They might try for the West, but they have backed down every time their bluff had previously been called.

[Woodchopper]

Russian strategy appears to be to use energy to put pressure on the West to stop supporting Ukraine.

A use of nuclear weapons need not involve massive casualties. For example, Putin may calculate that a high altitude explosion over the Baltic might be enough to intimidate Europeans.

[Woodchopper]

Good thread on Russian resistance to authority: https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1 ... Bx4D4dyQSw

[EACLucifer]

To reiterate: There is no evidence Russia has changed its nuclear posture.

[bob sterman]

To reiterate: There is no evidence Russia has changed its nuclear posture.

By "posture" I assume you mean location and status of weapons etc. Rather than "posture" in the broader sense.

Because its broader posture has not changed either - i.e. it is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons "in response to large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation."

And it is about to expand the definition of "Russian Federation" to include territory that is part of Ukraine - and Ukrainian forces are going to attempt to retake that territory using NATO supplied weapons.

Yes Russia are using their nuclear doctrine and threats to attempt to coerce the Ukraine / the west into backing down on these regions. But if backed into a corner it is not safe to assume that Russia won't do exactly what its doctrine has said it will do for many years.

[TopBadger]

If backed into a corner it is not safe to assume that Russia won't do exactly what its doctrine has said it will do for many years.

The whole nuke thing is a red herring to me... Putin and those in the CoC for firing nukes are either sane or they're not.

If they are sane then they're not launching nukes over defeat concerning territory they know full well was annexed illegally.

If they're not sane then all bets are off anyway...

[plodder]

Conscription is awful, especially for big macho drum banging hard talking shock and awe tv presenters, not so much for their horrible co-hosts though. Hard to tell whether they hate each other more than they hate themselves.

https://twitter.com/R82938886/status/15 ... 4108220423


*I have no idea if the translation is accurate but whatevs

[EACLucifer]

Conscription is awful, especially for big macho drum banging hard talking shock and awe tv presenters, not so much for their horrible co-hosts though. Hard to tell whether they hate each other more than they hate themselves.

https://twitter.com/R82938886/status/15 ... 4108220423


*I have no idea if the translation is accurate but whatevs

It's not, but it's a good parody.

And your post is accurate if you cut it down to just the first three words.

[dyqik]

Russian strategy appears to be to use energy fossil fuel supplies to put pressure on the West to stop supporting Ukraine.

A use of nuclear weapons need not involve massive casualties. For example, Putin may calculate that a high altitude explosion over the Baltic might be enough to intimidate Europeans.

At a time when the majority of the population in the West supports trying to stop using fossil fuels, that correction is pretty pertinent.

It's a bit like threatening the vodka supplies of someone who wants to cut down on their drinking.