The Invasion of Ukraine

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EACLucifer
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:57 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:48 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:35 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:03 pm
Wars of mass mobilisation are won as much in the factory as they are on the battlefield.
Time is a crucial factor as well. Traditionally, wars of mass mobilisation are won with patience as well as factories. Going backwards on the battlefield isn't a problem when you are winning in the factory and will recapture next year.

But those where times when we cared less about civilian murders etc.

In Ukraine we can't let it be a patient victory over crappy Russian factories. Ensuring a quick win now is the only ethical answer for the west.
A long war favours Russia. Russia has enormous resources, but it will take a long time to marshall them. Look at the Second World War. After German armies were on the out skirts of Moscow, the tide turned and the Russian war machine churned out tanks and soldiers, culminating in Marshal Zhukov
and the battle for Berlin, destroying everything in its path.
Please learn some real second world war history rather than whatever the f.ck this oversimplified...thing...is.
That is the fate awaiting Ukraine, if it cannot finish this thing in six months.
Having followed the above instructions, learn the difference between then and now. You see, the Soviet Union was dependant on massive amounts of western industrial and military aid. This time, that's favouring Ukraine.

That and supply lines. Naturally the Soviet Union's supply lines got shorter as Germany advanced, and Germany's got longer. This factor also favours Ukraine.
It cannot finish the war in six months without massive NATO aid, which will surely trigger a nuclear response.
No it won't you scaremongering f.ckwit. While Russian nuclear doctrine does allow first use of tactical nukes, it only allows them in situations where conventional threats put the existence of the nation in danger - not the borders, the existence of the nation. We're talking armoured divisions threatening to make thunder runs into the suburbs of Moscow scenarios. As Putin's grip on power slips, he'll find it harder and harder to get people to go along with changing nuclear doctrine.
We are about to see Putin's cornered rat moment.
While Putin may be a rat, it does not mean he is stronger when cornered. He's used to people backing down and self-deterring. He doesn't even know how to fight at this level, and that realisation has panicked him.
Putin is the man clinging to the precipice. Somebody has to talk him down and give him a reason to live. Nobody is doing that.
Scholz recently spoke to him, outlining a sensible position - that he must abandon his war on Ukraine and leave all of Ukraine.

No matter how unhappy Putin is, his unhappiness does not generate warfighting capability*. We do not need to stick to the ossified and clearly disproven idea that Russia is a terrifyingly strong great power. They aren't, they bit off more than they can chew, they are bleeding badly, so it's a great time to kick them when they are down.


*ugh, did I really just say "warfighting" with a straight face?

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:59 pm

Several things...

1) It was the Soviet Union and not Russia that drove out the Nazis, this included not a few Ukrainians.
2) The defending Soviet troops were somewhat more motivated than the Russian invaders of the Ukraine,
3) The Soviet Union was being generously supplied by United States in essential war material. The Russians have a manufacturing industry crippled by sanctions and corruption so they are begging North Korea and Iran for third rate material,
4) The Russian troops are getting a few weeks training at best, human wave attacks don't work so well any more,
5) The Ukrainians do not lack for troops, they only lack arms, and the arms they are getting far outperform what the Russians have,
6) f.ck off with the Russia worship, they've proven themselves incompetent, corrupt and incapable.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:21 pm

bjn wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:59 pm
Several things...

1) It was the Soviet Union and not Russia that drove out the Nazis, this included not a few Ukrainians.
2) The defending Soviet troops were somewhat more motivated than the Russian invaders of the Ukraine,
3) The Soviet Union was being generously supplied by United States in essential war material. The Russians have a manufacturing industry crippled by sanctions and corruption so they are begging North Korea and Iran for third rate material,
4) The Russian troops are getting a few weeks training at best, human wave attacks don't work so well any more,
5) The Ukrainians do not lack for troops, they only lack arms, and the arms they are getting far outperform what the Russians have,
6) f.ck off with the Russia worship, they've proven themselves incompetent, corrupt and incapable.
Russians (Soviets) beat the Germans for us in the Second World War. The post Soviet kleptocratic state has really degraded Russias war fighting capacity
there is still huge untapped potential, but it will take a long time to reconstitute it. Never underestimate your enemy.

Everybody (including me) would like to see a Russian withdrawal and peace in Ukraine. Its not going to happen, partly because we are not giving them any incentive to do so. The world should prepare it self for a long war that is not going to end well for anybody.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:24 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:48 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:35 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:03 pm
Wars of mass mobilisation are won as much in the factory as they are on the battlefield.
Time is a crucial factor as well. Traditionally, wars of mass mobilisation are won with patience as well as factories. Going backwards on the battlefield isn't a problem when you are winning in the factory and will recapture next year.

But those where times when we cared less about civilian murders etc.

In Ukraine we can't let it be a patient victory over crappy Russian factories. Ensuring a quick win now is the only ethical answer for the west.
A long war favours Russia. Russia has enormous resources, but it will take a long time to marshall them. Look at the Second World War. After German armies were on the out skirts of Moscow, the tide turned and the Russian war machine churned out tanks and soldiers, culminating in Marshal Zhukov
and the battle for Berlin, destroying everything in its path. That is the fate awaiting Ukraine, if it cannot finish this thing in six months.
It cannot finish the war in six months without massive NATO aid, which will surely trigger a nuclear response. We are about to see Putin's cornered rat moment.
Putin is the man clinging to the precipice. Somebody has to talk him down and give him a reason to live. Nobody is doing that.
Rubbish

Russia is a country of 145-million people. The USSR was 290-million in 1990. Ukraine is nearly a third the population.

Russia has just crippled its economy with its mobilisation. Ukraine has access to the US and the West for weapons.


How is the Russian machine going to turn out tanks and soldiers. Lend lease was vital to the USSR - especially with logistics.


Also I don't think you appreciate that the only way out for Putin is declaring victory. Otherwise he gets deposed and killed shortly after that.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:40 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:21 pm
bjn wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:59 pm
Several things...

1) It was the Soviet Union and not Russia that drove out the Nazis, this included not a few Ukrainians.
2) The defending Soviet troops were somewhat more motivated than the Russian invaders of the Ukraine,
3) The Soviet Union was being generously supplied by United States in essential war material. The Russians have a manufacturing industry crippled by sanctions and corruption so they are begging North Korea and Iran for third rate material,
4) The Russian troops are getting a few weeks training at best, human wave attacks don't work so well any more,
5) The Ukrainians do not lack for troops, they only lack arms, and the arms they are getting far outperform what the Russians have,
6) f.ck off with the Russia worship, they've proven themselves incompetent, corrupt and incapable.
Russians (Soviets) beat the Germans for us in the Second World War. The post Soviet kleptocratic state has really degraded Russias war fighting capacity
there is still huge untapped potential, but it will take a long time to reconstitute it. Never underestimate your enemy.

Everybody (including me) would like to see a Russian withdrawal and peace in Ukraine. Its not going to happen, partly because we are not giving them any incentive to do so. The world should prepare it self for a long war that is not going to end well for anybody.
The POST SOVIET Kleptocratic State?

Russia is indeed a kleptocratic state but so was the USSR - what do you think the nomenklatura was? And where did the oligarchs come from?

Everybody (including me) would like to see a Russian withdrawal and peace in Ukraine. Its not going to happen, partly because we are not giving them any incentive to do so. The world should prepare it self for a long war that is not going to end well for anybody.


Then why are you uncritically parroting the stories of Russian prowess? Russia is able to terrorise. It has huge stocks of ammunition - the Ukrainians have captured 122mm shells dated to 1965. But even if the Ukrainian army melted away and just left a resistance, Russia lacks the ability to take let alone hold Ukraine, and certainly not with western support.

I think it's evens whether Putin survives the autumn. I think he's probably slightly more likely to than not, but he's cutting down a lot of his supports.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:43 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:21 pm
bjn wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:59 pm
Several things...

1) It was the Soviet Union and not Russia that drove out the Nazis, this included not a few Ukrainians.
2) The defending Soviet troops were somewhat more motivated than the Russian invaders of the Ukraine,
3) The Soviet Union was being generously supplied by United States in essential war material. The Russians have a manufacturing industry crippled by sanctions and corruption so they are begging North Korea and Iran for third rate material,
4) The Russian troops are getting a few weeks training at best, human wave attacks don't work so well any more,
5) The Ukrainians do not lack for troops, they only lack arms, and the arms they are getting far outperform what the Russians have,
6) f.ck off with the Russia worship, they've proven themselves incompetent, corrupt and incapable.
Russians (Soviets) beat the Germans for us in the Second World War.
This is as offensive as it is idiotic. Ukrainians fought at a greater rate than Russians, and died at a greater rate than Russians too. There were more Ukrainians fighting at Stalingrad than Russians. That famous photo of the flag over the Reichstag? Ukrainian photographer.
The post Soviet kleptocratic state has really degraded Russias war fighting capacity
there is still huge untapped potential, but it will take a long time to reconstitute it. Never underestimate your enemy.
Giving in because you are so cowardly you overestimate your enemy is dangerous too - see also McClellan, appeasement in the thirties, etc.
Everybody (including me) would like to see a Russian withdrawal and peace in Ukraine. Its not going to happen, partly because we are not giving them any incentive to do so. The world should prepare it self for a long war that is not going to end well for anybody.
We are giving them several powerful incentives. For example, we're strangling them with sanctions, and supplying arms to Ukraine, and Ukrainians are providing a very powerful incentive - blowing them up until they refrain from what they are doing. It's a powerful reason to leave, the likelihood of being blown up.

The worst outcome is any kind of Russian success. Minor success freezes the conflict - and that means it will come back. A more major success, and they'll be going for Moldova and Bosnia and the Baltics next. The best way to end this war is to equip Ukraine with enough equipment to ensure utterly overwhelming military supremacy over the Russian invaders, but as things stand, with what is already pledged, Ukraine already has military superiority that will not be changed by adding large numbers of middle aged drunks.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:48 pm

Former president of Mongolia addressing the abuse of ethnic minorities by the Russians, and speaking directly to those conscripted.

As you would expect, a lot of Buryat and Tuvan and Kalmyk men are seeking safety in Mongolia.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:51 pm

Russia has been sending highly trained troops to the front and Izium.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1573360710935269376
@naalsio26
Showed me two images of sleeve patches found in Izium.
This first one belongs to 183 training center of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, military unit 22994
It's just that if they're sending Strategic Missile Force troops as infantry - that's *really* bad use of manpower.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:12 pm

jimbob wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:51 pm
Russia has been sending highly trained troops to the front and Izium.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1573360710935269376
@naalsio26
Showed me two images of sleeve patches found in Izium.
This first one belongs to 183 training center of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, military unit 22994
It's just that if they're sending Strategic Missile Force troops as infantry - that's *really* bad use of manpower.
It also tells us they aren't planning to rely on those Strategic Missile troops any time soon.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:14 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:12 pm
jimbob wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:51 pm
Russia has been sending highly trained troops to the front and Izium.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1573360710935269376
@naalsio26
Showed me two images of sleeve patches found in Izium.
This first one belongs to 183 training center of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, military unit 22994
It's just that if they're sending Strategic Missile Force troops as infantry - that's *really* bad use of manpower.
It also tells us they aren't planning to rely on those Strategic Missile troops any time soon.
Nor the cosmodrome test units
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:22 pm

Russian authorities plan to conscript 1.2 million people for their “partial mobilization,” Meduza has learned from a source close to one of the country’s federal ministries.

Additionally, a source close to Moscow’s leadership told Meduza that up to 16,000 people from the capital are slated to be drafted. This was confirmed by a source close to one of Russia’s federal ministries. Authorities in St. Petersburg plan to draft roughly 3,200 people, according to a source close to the Presidential Envoy to Russia’s Northwestern Federal District.

A source close to one of the country’s federal ministries noted that authorities “recommended keeping recruitments to a minimum” in regional capitals. Instead, the government is conscripting people “in rural areas, where there’s no media, no opposition, and more support [for the war],” said the source.
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09/23 ... ion-people

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:06 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:13 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:21 pm
Michael Kofman suggests that the initial mobilisation wave will get two weeks training.
https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/statu ... Sl4mJHlbNA

Which isn’t very much.
It's more than you need to be KIA... or utterly shafted by your own commanders and lack of equipment before surrendering.

The lack of Russian training is good for Ukraine.
Half as much as the "third army corps" got.

Those elements of that formation that were sent to try and stem the Ukrainian advance in Kharkiv oblast crumbled more or less at the moment of contact. And they were volunteers.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by wilsontown » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:39 pm

Everyone has a plan until they get smacked in the mouth.
"All models are wrong but some are useful" - George Box

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:51 pm

wilsontown wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:39 pm
Everyone has a plan until they get smacked in the mouth.
Obviously this is biased but it is consistent with what we have seen elsewhere.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... Ei4m8yQeNA

The former supermarket loader finding it hilarious that the Russians thought they were a special unit.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by dyqik » Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:01 pm

TimW wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:32 am
And the voting begins. I was going to set up a poll here (in the Russian language only, of course) asking you to guess how many of the four regions will vote to join Russia. But the forum software wouldn't allow it, saying You must enter at least two poll options.
Four and Four are available options.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:20 pm

There are reports that any Mobiks who arrive with their own equipment, first aid kit, prescription drugs etc. are having them confiscated.

Entirely believable in a brutalised system where mobiks will be the lowest rung. But also not a way to discourage mutinies etc.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bob sterman » Sat Sep 24, 2022 8:42 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:57 pm
While Russian nuclear doctrine does allow first use of tactical nukes, it only allows them in situations where conventional threats put the existence of the nation in danger - not the borders, the existence of the nation. We're talking armoured divisions threatening to make thunder runs into the suburbs of Moscow scenarios. As Putin's grip on power slips, he'll find it harder and harder to get people to go along with changing nuclear doctrine.
The specific wording - Russian doctrine says they may use nuclear weapons in a limited/tactical manner "in response to large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation."

US doctrine says "it reserves the right to respond with overwhelming force—including potentially nuclear weapons—to the use of [weapons of mass destruction] against the United States, our forces abroad, and friends and allies."

In both cases there is ambiguity on the threshold - which may partly be the intention.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bob sterman » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:04 am

Putting aside whether Russia would actually resort to this - here's the latest from Lavrov on what the doctrine in principle could apply to.

Please don't accuse me of scaremongering! It's clearly Lavrov doing the strategic scaremongering - just quoting...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -territory
Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, says the four Ukraine regions where votes are under way in “referendums” will be under Moscow’s “full protection” if they are annexed by Russia.

At a news conference following his speech to the United Nations general assembly in New York, Lavrov was asked if Russia would have grounds for using nuclear weapons to defend annexed regions of Ukraine. He said Russian territory – including territory “further enshrined” in Russia’s constitution in the future – “is under the full protection of the state”.

“All of the laws, doctrines, concepts and strategies of the Russian Federation apply to all of its territory,” Reuters reported him as saying while also referring specifically to Russia’s doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:32 am

An overall assessment of the mobilisation: https://twitter.com/yudingreg/status/15 ... GuoQFKkEYw

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:34 am

bob sterman wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:04 am
Putting aside whether Russia would actually resort to this - here's the latest from Lavrov on what the doctrine in principle could apply to.

Please don't accuse me of scaremongering! It's clearly Lavrov doing the strategic scaremongering - just quoting...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -territory
Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, says the four Ukraine regions where votes are under way in “referendums” will be under Moscow’s “full protection” if they are annexed by Russia.

At a news conference following his speech to the United Nations general assembly in New York, Lavrov was asked if Russia would have grounds for using nuclear weapons to defend annexed regions of Ukraine. He said Russian territory – including territory “further enshrined” in Russia’s constitution in the future – “is under the full protection of the state”.

“All of the laws, doctrines, concepts and strategies of the Russian Federation apply to all of its territory,” Reuters reported him as saying while also referring specifically to Russia’s doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons.
Nothing wrong with posting that and everyone should be concerned about the risk of nuclear weapons being used.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:37 am

bjn wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:59 pm
Several things...

1) It was the Soviet Union and not Russia that drove out the Nazis, this included not a few Ukrainians.
2) The defending Soviet troops were somewhat more motivated than the Russian invaders of the Ukraine,
3) The Soviet Union was being generously supplied by United States in essential war material. The Russians have a manufacturing industry crippled by sanctions and corruption so they are begging North Korea and Iran for third rate material,
4) The Russian troops are getting a few weeks training at best, human wave attacks don't work so well any more,
5) The Ukrainians do not lack for troops, they only lack arms, and the arms they are getting far outperform what the Russians have,
6) f.ck off with the Russia worship, they've proven themselves incompetent, corrupt and incapable.

A thread on the possible demographic impact of mobilisation - really not pretty for Russia.



https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... nguEap8pHA
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:01 pm

Looks like Russian authorities had to fire into the air in an attempt to disperse crowds in Dagestan - the Cuscuses could be a closer and more immediate problem for Putin.

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/statu ... QstTiwkzGQ
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:21 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:34 am
bob sterman wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:04 am
Putting aside whether Russia would actually resort to this - here's the latest from Lavrov on what the doctrine in principle could apply to.

Please don't accuse me of scaremongering! It's clearly Lavrov doing the strategic scaremongering - just quoting...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -territory
Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, says the four Ukraine regions where votes are under way in “referendums” will be under Moscow’s “full protection” if they are annexed by Russia.

At a news conference following his speech to the United Nations general assembly in New York, Lavrov was asked if Russia would have grounds for using nuclear weapons to defend annexed regions of Ukraine. He said Russian territory – including territory “further enshrined” in Russia’s constitution in the future – “is under the full protection of the state”.

“All of the laws, doctrines, concepts and strategies of the Russian Federation apply to all of its territory,” Reuters reported him as saying while also referring specifically to Russia’s doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons.
Nothing wrong with posting that and everyone should be concerned about the risk of nuclear weapons being used.
US national security advisor on the risk of use of nuclear weapons:
“National security adviser Jake Sullivan on "Face the Nation,"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jake-sulli ... 9-25-2022/

tl;dr we take it seriously and we accept the risk.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:18 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:22 pm
Russian authorities plan to conscript 1.2 million people for their “partial mobilization,” Meduza has learned from a source close to one of the country’s federal ministries.

Additionally, a source close to Moscow’s leadership told Meduza that up to 16,000 people from the capital are slated to be drafted. This was confirmed by a source close to one of Russia’s federal ministries. Authorities in St. Petersburg plan to draft roughly 3,200 people, according to a source close to the Presidential Envoy to Russia’s Northwestern Federal District.

A source close to one of the country’s federal ministries noted that authorities “recommended keeping recruitments to a minimum” in regional capitals. Instead, the government is conscripting people “in rural areas, where there’s no media, no opposition, and more support [for the war],” said the source.
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09/23 ... ion-people
Several different reports that Mobiks are already been sent to the front. "To the most depleted units" Which is a recipe for disaster.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:50 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:18 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:22 pm
Russian authorities plan to conscript 1.2 million people for their “partial mobilization,” Meduza has learned from a source close to one of the country’s federal ministries.

Additionally, a source close to Moscow’s leadership told Meduza that up to 16,000 people from the capital are slated to be drafted. This was confirmed by a source close to one of Russia’s federal ministries. Authorities in St. Petersburg plan to draft roughly 3,200 people, according to a source close to the Presidential Envoy to Russia’s Northwestern Federal District.

A source close to one of the country’s federal ministries noted that authorities “recommended keeping recruitments to a minimum” in regional capitals. Instead, the government is conscripting people “in rural areas, where there’s no media, no opposition, and more support [for the war],” said the source.
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09/23 ... ion-people
Several different reports that Mobiks are already been sent to the front. "To the most depleted units" Which is a recipe for disaster.
Including reports that the poor bastards are sometimes getting sent to Ukraine after a day of training.

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