The Invasion of Ukraine

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EACLucifer
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 06, 2022 1:06 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 12:58 pm
Thread on the likelihood of a coup in Russia: https://twitter.com/BenHNoble/status/15 ... AU7ssIgSKQ

tl;dr not likley.
Coups are often unthinkable until the moment they happen.

If there is a coup, though, and it is successful, we won't have heard about it in advance.

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jimbob
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri May 06, 2022 1:40 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 1:06 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 12:58 pm
Thread on the likelihood of a coup in Russia: https://twitter.com/BenHNoble/status/15 ... AU7ssIgSKQ

tl;dr not likley.
Coups are often unthinkable until the moment they happen.

If there is a coup, though, and it is successful, we won't have heard about it in advance.
And dictators throughout history have thought that they had protected themselves against being overthrown.

I still think he'd be unlucky to get deposed, but he's far more vulnerable than in the middle of February. It's significant enough that it's now a being talked about. His purging of his lieutenants probably makes it more likely as they were probably no more corrupt or self serving than the rest, so he's increased the risk for them of not trying to depose him.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Woodchopper
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat May 07, 2022 9:02 am

Most bizarre aspect of Russian militarism that you’ll see today: https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1 ... 147Zdon5xw

EACLucifer
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 07, 2022 9:09 am

Snake Island. Project 11770 Air-Cavity Landing Craft. Bayraktar TB-2

It continues.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 07, 2022 9:12 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 9:02 am
Most bizarre aspect of Russian militarism that you’ll see today: https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1 ... 147Zdon5xw
I honestly assumed this was a parody when I first saw it. I have several questions about this video, but the main one is this: why are they dancing on trampolines with SVT-40 rifles?

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by JQH » Sat May 07, 2022 9:54 am

One way of getting a work out, I guess.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Brightonian
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Brightonian » Sat May 07, 2022 10:45 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 9:02 am
Most bizarre aspect of Russian militarism that you’ll see today: https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1 ... 147Zdon5xw
Can't listen to that at the moment but I'm imagining that's to the sound of the "badger badger badger badger" song from the 1990s or whenever.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by tenchboy » Sat May 07, 2022 11:18 am

Brightonian wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 10:45 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 9:02 am
Most bizarre aspect of Russian militarism that you’ll see today: https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1 ... 147Zdon5xw
Can't listen to that at the moment but I'm imagining that's to the sound of the "badger badger badger badger" song from the 1990s or whenever.
I was getting that New Order video to be honest (again with the sound turned off)

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Martin Y
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Sat May 07, 2022 11:53 am

Consequently of course I just re-watched the True Faith video and it's as mad as ever but makes more sense than those red army aerobics.

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Woodchopper
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat May 07, 2022 5:29 pm

Information on the thousands of Ukrainians (including hundred of children) who have been forcibly deported to Russia: https://twitter.com/deankirby_/status/1 ... ZlVZENvUAQ

Forcing people to move from their homes is of ciudad war crime in its self.

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Woodchopper
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sun May 08, 2022 10:42 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 9:02 am
Most bizarre aspect of Russian militarism that you’ll see today: https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1 ... 147Zdon5xw
Not as bizarre, but still: https://twitter.com/redlinkedin/status/ ... VQCM41m9Qg

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Grumble
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Grumble » Sun May 08, 2022 5:11 pm

Grumble wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 10:26 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 9:34 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 8:57 pm
Interesting account of Russian attitudes about the war in Ukraine: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/03 ... hing-human
Interesting, depressing, but not that surprising.
The situation in Russia is genuinely like in Orwell’s 1984. I always viewed it as kind of a horror story, but now I think it’s really keenly observed and it’s all the more horrible.
I should say that the part of 1984 I didn’t realise was so well observed was the behaviour of the populace.
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Sciolus
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Sciolus » Sun May 08, 2022 7:28 pm

Grumble wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 5:11 pm
I should say that the part of 1984 I didn’t realise was so well observed was the behaviour of the populace.
When I read that article, my most persistent thought was, am I like that?

What most people* want, above all else, is a nice quiet life and being left to get on with it.** Most people know they have next to no influence on these enormous events so there is not really much value in spending a lot of time being fully-informed or doing anything individually about them, which is a pretty hopeless task anyway. I just follow orders and don't make a fuss. I know that by my behaviour I'm complicit in a variety of atrocities, from funding wars and organised crime to climate change, but I'm basically a good person and I can cope with the cognitive dissonance.

* i.e. me.

**Which is why it's all the more horrific when you're just getting on with your life quietly and suddenly you find everything and everyone around you getting bombed to bits for no reason.

Incidentally, I had a theory that part of the reason for the strong reaction to the invasion in the West was that we have recently been through a similar level of disruption to our ordinary lives due to Covid, and that may have made us more sympathetic. But then I thought of the Taliban reinvasion and all the other sh.t that's happened in the last two years that we don't care about.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Sun May 08, 2022 7:49 pm

tenchboy wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 11:18 am
Brightonian wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 10:45 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 9:02 am
Most bizarre aspect of Russian militarism that you’ll see today: https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1 ... 147Zdon5xw
Can't listen to that at the moment but I'm imagining that's to the sound of the "badger badger badger badger" song from the 1990s or whenever.
I was getting that New Order video to be honest (again with the sound turned off)
I was thinking "he's Arnold Arnold Arnold rimmer"
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by raven » Sun May 08, 2022 11:08 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 7:28 pm
Grumble wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 5:11 pm
I should say that the part of 1984 I didn’t realise was so well observed was the behaviour of the populace.
When I read that article, my most persistent thought was, am I like that?
[...]
Incidentally, I had a theory that part of the reason for the strong reaction to the invasion in the West was that we have recently been through a similar level of disruption to our ordinary lives due to Covid, and that may have made us more sympathetic. But then I thought of the Taliban reinvasion and all the other sh.t that's happened in the last two years that we don't care about.
I had some thoughts in a similar vein. First, that maybe Putin picked now, as we're emerging from the shadow of Covid, to act because he thought that the West would have some sort of 'omg, it's the end of the world' fatigue and be so desperate for things to get back to normal that we'd not react so decisively.

That sort of fits some of my own behaviour, because I am not reacting to some of the frankly downright scary aspects of Ukraine - the possibility of full scale war in Europe, the increasingly authoritarian regime in Russia that is ringing lots of alarm bells with it's casual brutality, out and out lies,and vilification of out-groups, etc etc - with as much energy/anxiety as I would normally. It's like I've got anxiety fatigue or something.

The corollary of that is perhaps that precisely because we're all so over having our worlds turned upside down by crises after crises, the West is pretty united against Russian aggression and rather keen on seeing it ended sooner rather than later.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 09, 2022 12:02 am

All eyes on Russia, if there's big political news, could be this monday.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bob sterman » Mon May 09, 2022 6:36 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 1:06 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 12:58 pm
Thread on the likelihood of a coup in Russia: https://twitter.com/BenHNoble/status/15 ... AU7ssIgSKQ

tl;dr not likley.
Coups are often unthinkable until the moment they happen.

If there is a coup, though, and it is successful, we won't have heard about it in advance.
I would think this possibility is a big factor in Putin's decision to delay the surgery he's supposedly due to have. Or at least have it very secretly.

And when he has it - he'd better hope he comes round from the GA quick. The slightest glitch and delay in his recovery and it could be "game on" in coup terms.

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bob sterman
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bob sterman » Mon May 09, 2022 8:18 am

OK - Putin has spoken.

Perhaps not as bellicose as some had feared (e.g. in relation to a wider war) but not good...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61353374
Russian President Vladimir Putin said troops and volunteers in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region were "fighting for the motherland, its future" and he accused the West of preparing for an "invasion of our land".
...given that Russian nuclear doctrine permits their use...

"in response to large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation."

So this "fighting for the future of the motherland" stuff is concerning.

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jimbob
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Mon May 09, 2022 8:30 am

bob sterman wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 8:18 am
OK - Putin has spoken.

Perhaps not as bellicose as some had feared (e.g. in relation to a wider war) but not good...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61353374
Russian President Vladimir Putin said troops and volunteers in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region were "fighting for the motherland, its future" and he accused the West of preparing for an "invasion of our land".
...given that Russian nuclear doctrine permits their use...

"in response to large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation."

So this "fighting for the future of the motherland" stuff is concerning.
Not really any change.

The one thing Russia has been escalating is its rhetoric.

It's been doing so as soon as it was clear that it wasn't going to install a puppet regime within the first week
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 09, 2022 10:13 am

bob sterman wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 8:18 am
OK - Putin has spoken.

Perhaps not as bellicose as some had feared (e.g. in relation to a wider war) but not good...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61353374
Russian President Vladimir Putin said troops and volunteers in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region were "fighting for the motherland, its future" and he accused the West of preparing for an "invasion of our land".
...given that Russian nuclear doctrine permits their use...

"in response to large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation."

So this "fighting for the future of the motherland" stuff is concerning.
Could have been a lot worse, there wasn't anything really shocking in that for anyone that's been following Russian rhetoric lately, largely more of the same. Re: nukes, we'll probably get some warning if they start digging tactical nukes out of storage and readying them, at which point western intelligence/governments will go apeshit. Strategic stuff is maintained at readiness, but they'll be exceptionally wary of touching of an ICBM, as Britain/France/America might respond in kind without waiting to see where it's heading.

One thing I noticed was Russian claims that the flypast had been cancelled due to the weather. The weather in footage of the parade is quite clear and pleasant, making we wonder if that was really the reason. A check of the forecast, however, suggests it could be - heavy rain is forecast for the rest of the day.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Mon May 09, 2022 1:26 pm

How much notice are we going to get before Putin pulls the nukes out of his back pocket?

I hope to be off of Plague Island and out of Europe soon, but I don't know how long I can stay away.
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Martin Y
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Mon May 09, 2022 2:23 pm

When contemplating the threat of nukes being used, one tends to think in terms only of Russia and NATO, but there are other big players who take a view on that sh.t. China, for example. The 21st century is shaping up kinda nicely for China and even if they weren't directly in the firing line they really don't want their richest customers reduced to radioactive ash. I hope that if it ever looks like Putin is winding up to do something really stupid and NATO is sending the wrong calming message, China will persuade him to stop and count to ten.

Count up, that is, not down.

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Woodchopper
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Mon May 09, 2022 3:55 pm

Lockheed Martin aims to nearly double production for Javelin anti-tank missiles from 2,100 to 4,000 per year, but it needs the supply chain to “crank up,” according to its chief executive.

[…]

“We’re endeavoring to take that up to 4,000 per year, and that will take a number of months, maybe even a couple of years to get there because we have to get our supply chain to also crank up,” Taiclet said. “We think we can almost double the capacity in a reasonable amount of time.”

Congress can help by passing the Bipartisan Innovation Act to invest in domestic design, manufacturing and testing of microprocessors, to reduce reliance on foreign supplies, Taiclet said. Each Javelin contains 250 microprocessors, and Lockheed more broadly is collaborating with chipmaker Intel, he added.

[…]

On Friday, the Pentagon acknowledged it has shifted $1.45 billion to the Army and Marine Corps to restock Javelins and Stingers. The transfer sent the Army roughly $809 million for Javelins and $303 million for Stingers and sent the Marine Corps $370 million for Stingers, according to the Pentagon comptroller’s request to Congress.

The money came from the $13.6 billion Ukraine aid package Congress passed in March, which included $3.5 billion to backfill U.S. military weapons sent to Ukraine.

Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Bill LaPlante told reporters last week that although the Pentagon had been buying the F-model Javelin, its stockpiles will be refilled with the newer G-model.
https://www.defensenews.com/industry/20 ... -crank-up/

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Cardinal Fang
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Cardinal Fang » Mon May 09, 2022 6:23 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Sun May 08, 2022 7:49 pm
tenchboy wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 11:18 am
Brightonian wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 10:45 am


Can't listen to that at the moment but I'm imagining that's to the sound of the "badger badger badger badger" song from the 1990s or whenever.
I was getting that New Order video to be honest (again with the sound turned off)
I was thinking "he's Arnold Arnold Arnold rimmer"
Oh please can anyone good with video editing do that. It would be brilliant

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bob sterman
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bob sterman » Mon May 09, 2022 6:50 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 10:13 am
bob sterman wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 8:18 am
So this "fighting for the future of the motherland" stuff is concerning.
Could have been a lot worse, there wasn't anything really shocking in that for anyone that's been following Russian rhetoric lately, largely more of the same. Re: nukes, we'll probably get some warning if they start digging tactical nukes out of storage and readying them, at which point western intelligence/governments will go apeshit. Strategic stuff is maintained at readiness, but they'll be exceptionally wary of touching of an ICBM, as Britain/France/America might respond in kind without waiting to see where it's heading.
Yes - I agree. As I said it was less threatening than some expected. Keeping everything on the table - without obvious escalation.
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 10:13 am
One thing I noticed was Russian claims that the flypast had been cancelled due to the weather. The weather in footage of the parade is quite clear and pleasant, making we wonder if that was really the reason. A check of the forecast, however, suggests it could be - heavy rain is forecast for the rest of the day.
The paranoid interpretation of the cancellation of the "Doomsday" Ilyushin flypast is that it was fuelled up on standby waiting on a runway in case Putin needed to jump in.

However, Occam's razor says it's just broken down - or the cheap tires have burst.

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