The Invasion of Ukraine

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Herainestold
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Mon May 09, 2022 7:01 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 6:36 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 1:06 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 12:58 pm
Thread on the likelihood of a coup in Russia: https://twitter.com/BenHNoble/status/15 ... AU7ssIgSKQ

tl;dr not likley.
Coups are often unthinkable until the moment they happen.

If there is a coup, though, and it is successful, we won't have heard about it in advance.
I would think this possibility is a big factor in Putin's decision to delay the surgery he's supposedly due to have. Or at least have it very secretly.

And when he has it - he'd better hope he comes round from the GA quick. The slightest glitch and delay in his recovery and it could be "game on" in coup terms.
If a coup happens we will hear about it toute suite.
Not before. The revolution will not be televised. Nor announced on social media before hand. All the usual suspects will claim they saw it coming.

The more speculation there is about it, the less likely is the probability.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue May 10, 2022 12:03 pm

Ukraine has upgraded its war aims and is now looking to push Russian forces out of the country as long as western allies rapidly deliver promised heavy weaponry, its foreign minister has said.

In a sign of the growing confidence in Kyiv after Moscow’s offensive in the eastern Donbas region appeared to have stalled, Dmytro Kuleba told the Financial Times “the picture of victory is an evolving concept”.

“In the first months of the war the victory for us looked like withdrawal of Russian forces to the positions they occupied before February 24 and payment for inflicted damage,” Kuleba said in an interview.

“Now if we are strong enough on the military front and we win the battle for Donbas, which will be crucial for the following dynamics of the war, of course the victory for us in this war will be the liberation of the rest of our territories.”
https://www.ft.com/content/8db0d387-fb4 ... 19d36d8be0

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue May 10, 2022 1:07 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 12:03 pm
Ukraine has upgraded its war aims and is now looking to push Russian forces out of the country as long as western allies rapidly deliver promised heavy weaponry, its foreign minister has said.

In a sign of the growing confidence in Kyiv after Moscow’s offensive in the eastern Donbas region appeared to have stalled, Dmytro Kuleba told the Financial Times “the picture of victory is an evolving concept”.

“In the first months of the war the victory for us looked like withdrawal of Russian forces to the positions they occupied before February 24 and payment for inflicted damage,” Kuleba said in an interview.

“Now if we are strong enough on the military front and we win the battle for Donbas, which will be crucial for the following dynamics of the war, of course the victory for us in this war will be the liberation of the rest of our territories.”
https://www.ft.com/content/8db0d387-fb4 ... 19d36d8be0
This is a reasonable war aim, and we can't assume usual ratios of attacker/defender re strength needed and losses will apply in a war where one side has precision munitions and the other has not, which is the way this is heading.

It's also an important position for negotiations. If Russia knows that Ukraine has the will to retake those territories invaded and occupied in 2014, and the means to do so, it will focus their minds on negotiated solutions.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Tue May 10, 2022 2:51 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 1:07 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 12:03 pm
Ukraine has upgraded its war aims and is now looking to push Russian forces out of the country as long as western allies rapidly deliver promised heavy weaponry, its foreign minister has said.

In a sign of the growing confidence in Kyiv after Moscow’s offensive in the eastern Donbas region appeared to have stalled, Dmytro Kuleba told the Financial Times “the picture of victory is an evolving concept”.

“In the first months of the war the victory for us looked like withdrawal of Russian forces to the positions they occupied before February 24 and payment for inflicted damage,” Kuleba said in an interview.

“Now if we are strong enough on the military front and we win the battle for Donbas, which will be crucial for the following dynamics of the war, of course the victory for us in this war will be the liberation of the rest of our territories.”
https://www.ft.com/content/8db0d387-fb4 ... 19d36d8be0
This is a reasonable war aim, and we can't assume usual ratios of attacker/defender re strength needed and losses will apply in a war where one side has precision munitions and the other has not, which is the way this is heading.

It's also an important position for negotiations. If Russia knows that Ukraine has the will to retake those territories invaded and occupied in 2014, and the means to do so, it will focus their minds on negotiated solutions.
The Crimea is also probably not viable without Ukrainian land due to the water supply
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gfamily » Tue May 10, 2022 3:18 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 1:07 pm
It's also an important position for negotiations. If Russia knows that Ukraine has the will to retake those territories invaded and occupied in 2014, and the means to do so, it will focus their minds on negotiated solutions.
The concern is that Putin would see this as an existential threat to his Russia.
jimbob wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 2:51 pm
The Crimea is also probably not viable without Ukrainian land due to the water supply
I'm not sure what the situation is with regard to civilian water resources in conflicts,
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Tue May 10, 2022 4:10 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 3:18 pm


I'm not sure what the situation is with regard to civilian water resources in conflicts,
With Putin's Russia, it's whatever he has the ability to enforce.

There can't be many international rules governing distribution of water within a sovereign nation - after all it was just Ukraine altering the distribution within its own internationally-recognised boundaries.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Tue May 10, 2022 4:51 pm

The Russians will really want to avoid losing Sevastopol, that will sharpen the mind.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue May 10, 2022 5:28 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 3:18 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 1:07 pm
It's also an important position for negotiations. If Russia knows that Ukraine has the will to retake those territories invaded and occupied in 2014, and the means to do so, it will focus their minds on negotiated solutions.
The concern is that Putin would see this as an existential threat to his Russia.
jimbob wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 2:51 pm
The Crimea is also probably not viable without Ukrainian land due to the water supply
I'm not sure what the situation is with regard to civilian water resources in conflicts,
Absent a treaty, I'm not sure there's much Russia can do if Ukraine decide that the water that currently flows towards Crimea would be better off used to irrigate fields in non-occupied parts of Ukraine, especially as Crimea is only part of Russia in the eyes of Putin's government, everybody else knows it is still part of Ukraine.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Tue May 10, 2022 6:13 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 5:28 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 3:18 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 1:07 pm
It's also an important position for negotiations. If Russia knows that Ukraine has the will to retake those territories invaded and occupied in 2014, and the means to do so, it will focus their minds on negotiated solutions.
The concern is that Putin would see this as an existential threat to his Russia.
jimbob wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 2:51 pm
The Crimea is also probably not viable without Ukrainian land due to the water supply
I'm not sure what the situation is with regard to civilian water resources in conflicts,
Absent a treaty, I'm not sure there's much Russia can do if Ukraine decide that the water that currently flows towards Crimea would be better off used to irrigate fields in non-occupied parts of Ukraine, especially as Crimea is only part of Russia in the eyes of Putin's government, everybody else knows it is still part of Ukraine.
Yes, that was my point about "Ukraine altering the distribution within its own internationally-recognised boundaries."
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue May 10, 2022 6:19 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 6:13 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 5:28 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 3:18 pm

The concern is that Putin would see this as an existential threat to his Russia.

I'm not sure what the situation is with regard to civilian water resources in conflicts,
Absent a treaty, I'm not sure there's much Russia can do if Ukraine decide that the water that currently flows towards Crimea would be better off used to irrigate fields in non-occupied parts of Ukraine, especially as Crimea is only part of Russia in the eyes of Putin's government, everybody else knows it is still part of Ukraine.
Yes, that was my point about "Ukraine altering the distribution within its own internationally-recognised boundaries."
My brain's not running at full capacity today, evidently I missed where you'd said that.

In other news, I am deeply worried about Transnistria. It's not that Russian troops there pose much threat to Ukraine, and I hope there are measure in place to stop them attacking the rest of Moldova. It's that it's a frozen conflict that could well be resolved peacefully one day, and Russia trying to use Transnistria as a weapon against either Ukraine or the west in general will get a lot of people needlessly killed, and ruin chances for negotiated peace.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Tue May 10, 2022 7:35 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 6:19 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 6:13 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 5:28 pm


Absent a treaty, I'm not sure there's much Russia can do if Ukraine decide that the water that currently flows towards Crimea would be better off used to irrigate fields in non-occupied parts of Ukraine, especially as Crimea is only part of Russia in the eyes of Putin's government, everybody else knows it is still part of Ukraine.
Yes, that was my point about "Ukraine altering the distribution within its own internationally-recognised boundaries."
My brain's not running at full capacity today, evidently I missed where you'd said that.

In other news, I am deeply worried about Transnistria. It's not that Russian troops there pose much threat to Ukraine, and I hope there are measure in place to stop them attacking the rest of Moldova. It's that it's a frozen conflict that could well be resolved peacefully one day, and Russia trying to use Transnistria as a weapon against either Ukraine or the west in general will get a lot of people needlessly killed, and ruin chances for negotiated peace.
Ha I've had days like that.

As an aside, this afternoon, the World Service interviewed a couple of young Transnistrian emigrants - one in Hungary, whose mother now lives in Moscow, and one in Romania.

It was worth a listen. One said that "everyone is grumpy in Transnistria, and the other laughed, agreed, then gave reasons for it (being stuck in a clone of the USSR of the late 1980s isn't easy or fun)

ETA: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172yg1j6hhp4r6
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue May 10, 2022 9:45 pm

Czechia to replace Russia on the UN rights council.

Turns out there is a limit to how bad a country can be and still serve on it. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cz ... 022-05-10/
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gfamily » Wed May 11, 2022 11:11 am

Gfamily wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 3:18 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 10, 2022 1:07 pm
It's also an important position for negotiations. If Russia knows that Ukraine has the will to retake those territories invaded and occupied in 2014, and the means to do so, it will focus their minds on negotiated solutions.
The concern is that Putin would see this as an existential threat to his Russia.
Not just me concerned about this https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ril-haines
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Wed May 11, 2022 1:19 pm

The biggest threat to "Putin's Russia" is internal... no-one wants to invade Russia.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Wed May 11, 2022 2:05 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 1:19 pm
The biggest threat to "Putin's Russia" is internal... no-one wants to invade Russia.
A weak Russia is surrounded by opportunists who have designs on bits of the country here and there, but nobody wants the whole thing, its too difficult to administer. Georgia, Kazakhstan, even Japan might like to take a nip at the Russian bear.

Putin needs to be offered a way out of his quagmire that doesn't look like defeat.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gfamily » Wed May 11, 2022 2:11 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 2:05 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 1:19 pm
The biggest threat to "Putin's Russia" is internal... no-one wants to invade Russia.
A weak Russia is surrounded by opportunists who have designs on bits of the country here and there, but nobody wants the whole thing, its too difficult to administer. Georgia, Kazakhstan, even Japan might like to take a nip at the Russian bear.

Putin needs to be offered a way out of his quagmire that doesn't look like defeat.
Now you're just being silly.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Grumble » Wed May 11, 2022 2:19 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 2:11 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 2:05 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 1:19 pm
The biggest threat to "Putin's Russia" is internal... no-one wants to invade Russia.
A weak Russia is surrounded by opportunists who have designs on bits of the country here and there, but nobody wants the whole thing, its too difficult to administer. Georgia, Kazakhstan, even Japan might like to take a nip at the Russian bear.

Putin needs to be offered a way out of his quagmire that doesn't look like defeat.
Now you're just being silly.
That’s not all that silly, it’s what diplomats have been saying all along and it’s sound game theory. I do want him to be utterly crushed, but we should try to find a way to help him de-escalate.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Wed May 11, 2022 2:20 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 2:11 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 2:05 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 1:19 pm
The biggest threat to "Putin's Russia" is internal... no-one wants to invade Russia.
A weak Russia is surrounded by opportunists who have designs on bits of the country here and there, but nobody wants the whole thing, its too difficult to administer. Georgia, Kazakhstan, even Japan might like to take a nip at the Russian bear.

Putin needs to be offered a way out of his quagmire that doesn't look like defeat.
Now you're just being silly.
Russia has many neighbours that it doesn't have great relations with. When it starts to look weak those neighbours may act. One way to look strong is to use nukes.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Wed May 11, 2022 2:48 pm

If Russia had to resort to Nukes to deter Kazakhstan from expanding its borders then to my mind that would be a startling admission of weakness, not a projection of strength.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by IvanV » Wed May 11, 2022 3:28 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 2:48 pm
If Russia had to resort to Nukes to deter Kazakhstan from expanding its borders then to my mind that would be a startling admission of weakness, not a projection of strength.
There are Kazakh minorities on the Russian side of the border. But these are distinctly minorities and rather smaller than the Russian populations along the northern edge of Kazakhstan, as well as also in major towns throughout the country. The reality of the Kazakh-Russia border situation is that Kazakhstan has long been worried about Russia grabbing the north of the country, since well before Russia grabbed bits of Ukraine, rather than the other way around. The northern strip of Kazakhstan is a major grain-growing area similar to the Canadian prairies. Indeed this fear was a factor much mentioned in Nazarbayev's decision to move the capital to Aqmola (as it was called at the time of the decision, now named Nursultan after himself) in the north of the country, as a kind of telling Russia that they do in fact value the north and intend to hold it.

Though if Russia did annoy the Kazakhs a lot, then there is an issue over the Baikonur Cosmodrome, Russia's very busy rocket launch site, which is in the S of Kazakhstan. They'd have to march in a very long way to secure that.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin_B » Thu May 12, 2022 1:49 am

Herainestold wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 2:05 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 1:19 pm
The biggest threat to "Putin's Russia" is internal... no-one wants to invade Russia.
A weak Russia is surrounded by opportunists who have designs on bits of the country here and there, but nobody wants the whole thing, its too difficult to administer. Georgia, Kazakhstan, even Japan might like to take a nip at the Russian bear.

Putin needs to be offered a way out of his quagmire that doesn't look like defeat.
The Kuril Islands are disputed between Japan and Russia. From 1875 to 1945 the entire island chain was under Japanese control and after WW2 the island chain was claimed by Russia. While the islands themselves may not be of much value, they do define the Sea of Okhotsk. Sakhalin Island, which separates the Sea of Okhotsk from the Sea of Japan has significant gas deposits, and it's thought that the Sea of Okhotsk might as well (no-one's really looked recently!). Japan, which imports a lot of LNG would welcome having a claim to potential gas resources of their own.

It's not really a hot topic for Japanese politics (less than Argentinian claims to the Malvinas or Spanish claims to Gibraltar) but more an ongoing "the next-door neighbour's fence is on my land" grumble. Should Russia be beaten or distracted then Japan might look for at least some of the Kuril Islands back, but I don't think they'd risk a military conflict over them.

More of a concern would be if Japan restarted any claims on Sakhalin Island itself (they have history on there, but currently don't claim it as Japanese territory stolen after WW2). That would almost certainly lead to a military conflict.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Thu May 12, 2022 4:21 am

Japan Toughens Anti-Russia Stand, Terms Southern Kuril Islands As 'illegally Occupied'

https://www.republicworld.com/world-new ... eshow.html
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Grumble » Thu May 12, 2022 5:49 am

Martin_B wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 1:49 am
Herainestold wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 2:05 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 1:19 pm
The biggest threat to "Putin's Russia" is internal... no-one wants to invade Russia.
A weak Russia is surrounded by opportunists who have designs on bits of the country here and there, but nobody wants the whole thing, its too difficult to administer. Georgia, Kazakhstan, even Japan might like to take a nip at the Russian bear.

Putin needs to be offered a way out of his quagmire that doesn't look like defeat.
The Kuril Islands are disputed between Japan and Russia. From 1875 to 1945 the entire island chain was under Japanese control and after WW2 the island chain was claimed by Russia. While the islands themselves may not be of much value, they do define the Sea of Okhotsk. Sakhalin Island, which separates the Sea of Okhotsk from the Sea of Japan has significant gas deposits, and it's thought that the Sea of Okhotsk might as well (no-one's really looked recently!). Japan, which imports a lot of LNG would welcome having a claim to potential gas resources of their own.

It's not really a hot topic for Japanese politics (less than Argentinian claims to the Malvinas or Spanish claims to Gibraltar) but more an ongoing "the next-door neighbour's fence is on my land" grumble. Should Russia be beaten or distracted then Japan might look for at least some of the Kuril Islands back, but I don't think they'd risk a military conflict over them.

More of a concern would be if Japan restarted any claims on Sakhalin Island itself (they have history on there, but currently don't claim it as Japanese territory stolen after WW2). That would almost certainly lead to a military conflict.
I think China gave up claims to Vladivostok in the 60’s, but maybe it would like to revive them if it thought it could get away with it.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by lpm » Thu May 12, 2022 7:21 am

Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu May 12, 2022 1:56 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:21 am
Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.
Won't be long, I expect. Not country-vs-country war, because the countries that are the major victims of fossil fuel use are mostly too poor to fight back against the powerful polluters. Places like India are a bit of an exception, but there are still powerful domestic interests there that want to keep using coal for as long as possible.

But I expect a ramping-up of insurgency and freedom-fighting isn't far off. Years of peaceful protests, up to and including self-immolation, have visibly failed, and we know from history what options that leaves people. Hopefully the targets will be mostly infrastructure.

Interesting article here on young people's anger from a climate economist https://jksteinberger.medium.com/the-ki ... 518fffb475
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