The Invasion of Ukraine

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Post Reply
User avatar
dyqik
Light of Blast
Posts: 5223
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by dyqik » Thu May 12, 2022 1:58 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 1:56 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:21 am
Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.
Won't be long, I expect. Not country-vs-country war, because the countries that are the major victims of fossil fuel use are mostly too poor to fight back against the powerful polluters. Places like India are a bit of an exception, but there are still powerful domestic interests there that want to keep using coal for as long as possible.

But I expect a ramping-up of insurgency and freedom-fighting isn't far off. Years of peaceful protests, up to and including self-immolation, have visibly failed, and we know from history what options that leaves people. Hopefully the targets will be mostly infrastructure.

Interesting article here on young people's anger from a climate economist https://jksteinberger.medium.com/the-ki ... 518fffb475
I suspect it's more likely to result in wars over water, made scarcer due to climate change, or land, where there's a risk of serious displacement of the population due to climate change effects.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Princess POW
Posts: 8745
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: Portugal

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu May 12, 2022 2:10 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 1:58 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 1:56 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:21 am
Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.
Won't be long, I expect. Not country-vs-country war, because the countries that are the major victims of fossil fuel use are mostly too poor to fight back against the powerful polluters. Places like India are a bit of an exception, but there are still powerful domestic interests there that want to keep using coal for as long as possible.

But I expect a ramping-up of insurgency and freedom-fighting isn't far off. Years of peaceful protests, up to and including self-immolation, have visibly failed, and we know from history what options that leaves people. Hopefully the targets will be mostly infrastructure.

Interesting article here on young people's anger from a climate economist https://jksteinberger.medium.com/the-ki ... 518fffb475
I suspect it's more likely to result in wars over water, made scarcer due to climate change, or land, where there's a risk of serious displacement of the population due to climate change effects.
I'm sure all those reactions will happen, yes. Catastrophic consequences for some regions are already baked in.

But people who are serious about limiting warming to ~1.5°C (bad enough, but not as catastrophic as 2°C+) are also rapidly re-evaluating their strategies.
Tree dwellers leaping out the boughs shouting «Get the paper»
Trunk hugging rebels chucking petals at a detonator

User avatar
Martin Y
After Pie
Posts: 2463
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:08 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Thu May 12, 2022 3:24 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:21 am
Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.
How many divisions does Extinction Rebellion have?

monkey
Dorkwood
Posts: 1209
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:10 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by monkey » Thu May 12, 2022 3:30 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 3:24 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:21 am
Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.
How many divisions does Extinction Rebellion have?
They're mostly left wing, so there's probably plenty of internal splits.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Princess POW
Posts: 8745
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: Portugal

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu May 12, 2022 3:51 pm

XR are ideologically devoted to non-violence. It's why they're always giving cops flowers and stuff. They've swallowed the revisionist whitewashing of stuff like the US civil rights movement as a purely non-violent process, and are therefore trying to emulate something that never happened.

That's not to stop some splinter group calling themselves XR, of course (especially as it's so decentralised), but it would be a strange choice of label to apply to yourself while adopting very non-XR tactics.
Tree dwellers leaping out the boughs shouting «Get the paper»
Trunk hugging rebels chucking petals at a detonator

User avatar
Sciolus
Dorkwood
Posts: 993
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Sciolus » Thu May 12, 2022 7:41 pm

Boris Johnson said rather than wrote:The anger and the impatience of the world will be uncontainable unless we make this COP26 in Glasgow the moment when we get real about climate change.

User avatar
Grumble
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3105
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Grumble » Fri May 13, 2022 6:29 am

Because Russia hasn’t declared war Russian soldiers can refuse to fight, and their only punishment is to be sacked.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... SApp_Other
Would you like your chakras realigned?

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 5144
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 13, 2022 7:40 am

Grumble wrote:
Fri May 13, 2022 6:29 am
Because Russia hasn’t declared war Russian soldiers can refuse to fight, and their only punishment is to be sacked.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... SApp_Other
I think that would be better summarized as they can refuse to be sent to the special military operation. I'd be very surprised is someone wasn't to be punished if they refused to fight in the middle of a battle.

User avatar
lpm
Light of Blast
Posts: 4526
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by lpm » Fri May 13, 2022 8:35 am

Er... guys... I mean come on, just because something is written on paper doesn't mean it has any validity in Putin's Russia.

A handful of troops might have got away with it, but 99% who try it will get the sh.t beaten out of them.

And I wonder what percentage of British WW2 troops told their commanders they weren't going to fight and were discreetly transferred to other roles where they could be useful rather than let them be disruptive on the front line.

The Guardian comes across as pretty naive in this article.
⭐ Awarded gold star 4 November 2021

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 5144
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat May 14, 2022 1:14 am

The occupant, a short film made from found footage from a Russian soldier’s phone.
https://youtu.be/WIZIspwem2s

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 5144
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat May 14, 2022 5:38 am

A map doing the rounds on twitter showing Russia’s decreasing ambitions. I don’t know who made it originally.
72428390-9583-4F22-AD73-8459488495AD.jpeg
72428390-9583-4F22-AD73-8459488495AD.jpeg (251.14 KiB) Viewed 102 times
It looks like their main goal now to capture a city.

EACLucifer
After Pie
Posts: 1686
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: Behind you

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 14, 2022 5:49 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat May 14, 2022 5:38 am
A map doing the rounds on twitter showing Russia’s decreasing ambitions. I don’t know who made it originally.

72428390-9583-4F22-AD73-8459488495AD.jpeg

It looks like their main goal now to capture a city.
The failed crossing at Bilohorivka potentially represented an attempt at an even smaller encirclement than the "June 2022?" one on the map, just targetting the encirclement of Lyschansk and Sievierodonetsk

Post Reply