The Invasion of Ukraine

[Grumble]

The biggest threat to "Putin's Russia" is internal... no-one wants to invade Russia.

A weak Russia is surrounded by opportunists who have designs on bits of the country here and there, but nobody wants the whole thing, its too difficult to administer. Georgia, Kazakhstan, even Japan might like to take a nip at the Russian bear.

Putin needs to be offered a way out of his quagmire that doesn't look like defeat.

The Kuril Islands are disputed between Japan and Russia. From 1875 to 1945 the entire island chain was under Japanese control and after WW2 the island chain was claimed by Russia. While the islands themselves may not be of much value, they do define the Sea of Okhotsk. Sakhalin Island, which separates the Sea of Okhotsk from the Sea of Japan has significant gas deposits, and it's thought that the Sea of Okhotsk might as well (no-one's really looked recently!). Japan, which imports a lot of LNG would welcome having a claim to potential gas resources of their own.

It's not really a hot topic for Japanese politics (less than Argentinian claims to the Malvinas or Spanish claims to Gibraltar) but more an ongoing "the next-door neighbour's fence is on my land" grumble. Should Russia be beaten or distracted then Japan might look for at least some of the Kuril Islands back, but I don't think they'd risk a military conflict over them.

More of a concern would be if Japan restarted any claims on Sakhalin Island itself (they have history on there, but currently don't claim it as Japanese territory stolen after WW2). That would almost certainly lead to a military conflict.

I think China gave up claims to Vladivostok in the 60’s, but maybe it would like to revive them if it thought it could get away with it.

[lpm]

Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.

[Bird on a Fire]

Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.

Won't be long, I expect. Not country-vs-country war, because the countries that are the major victims of fossil fuel use are mostly too poor to fight back against the powerful polluters. Places like India are a bit of an exception, but there are still powerful domestic interests there that want to keep using coal for as long as possible.

But I expect a ramping-up of insurgency and freedom-fighting isn't far off. Years of peaceful protests, up to and including self-immolation, have visibly failed, and we know from history what options that leaves people. Hopefully the targets will be mostly infrastructure.

Interesting article here on young people's anger from a climate economist https://jksteinberger.medium.com/the-ki ... 518fffb475

[dyqik]

Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.

Won't be long, I expect. Not country-vs-country war, because the countries that are the major victims of fossil fuel use are mostly too poor to fight back against the powerful polluters. Places like India are a bit of an exception, but there are still powerful domestic interests there that want to keep using coal for as long as possible.

But I expect a ramping-up of insurgency and freedom-fighting isn't far off. Years of peaceful protests, up to and including self-immolation, have visibly failed, and we know from history what options that leaves people. Hopefully the targets will be mostly infrastructure.

Interesting article here on young people's anger from a climate economist https://jksteinberger.medium.com/the-ki ... 518fffb475

I suspect it's more likely to result in wars over water, made scarcer due to climate change, or land, where there's a risk of serious displacement of the population due to climate change effects.

[Bird on a Fire]

Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.

Won't be long, I expect. Not country-vs-country war, because the countries that are the major victims of fossil fuel use are mostly too poor to fight back against the powerful polluters. Places like India are a bit of an exception, but there are still powerful domestic interests there that want to keep using coal for as long as possible.

But I expect a ramping-up of insurgency and freedom-fighting isn't far off. Years of peaceful protests, up to and including self-immolation, have visibly failed, and we know from history what options that leaves people. Hopefully the targets will be mostly infrastructure.

Interesting article here on young people's anger from a climate economist https://jksteinberger.medium.com/the-ki ... 518fffb475

I suspect it's more likely to result in wars over water, made scarcer due to climate change, or land, where there's a risk of serious displacement of the population due to climate change effects.

I'm sure all those reactions will happen, yes. Catastrophic consequences for some regions are already baked in.

But people who are serious about limiting warming to ~1.5°C (bad enough, but not as catastrophic as 2°C+) are also rapidly re-evaluating their strategies.

[Martin Y]

Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.

How many divisions does Extinction Rebellion have?

[monkey]

Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.

How many divisions does Extinction Rebellion have?

They're mostly left wing, so there's probably plenty of internal splits.

[Bird on a Fire]

XR are ideologically devoted to non-violence. It's why they're always giving cops flowers and stuff. They've swallowed the revisionist whitewashing of stuff like the US civil rights movement as a purely non-violent process, and are therefore trying to emulate something that never happened.

That's not to stop some splinter group calling themselves XR, of course (especially as it's so decentralised), but it would be a strange choice of label to apply to yourself while adopting very non-XR tactics.

[Sciolus]

The anger and the impatience of the world will be uncontainable unless we make this COP26 in Glasgow the moment when we get real about climate change.

[Grumble]

Because Russia hasn’t declared war Russian soldiers can refuse to fight, and their only punishment is to be sacked.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... SApp_Other

[Woodchopper]

Because Russia hasn’t declared war Russian soldiers can refuse to fight, and their only punishment is to be sacked.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... SApp_Other

I think that would be better summarized as they can refuse to be sent to the special military operation. I'd be very surprised is someone wasn't to be punished if they refused to fight in the middle of a battle.

[lpm]

Er... guys... I mean come on, just because something is written on paper doesn't mean it has any validity in Putin's Russia.

A handful of troops might have got away with it, but 99% who try it will get the sh.t beaten out of them.

And I wonder what percentage of British WW2 troops told their commanders they weren't going to fight and were discreetly transferred to other roles where they could be useful rather than let them be disruptive on the front line.

The Guardian comes across as pretty naive in this article.

[Woodchopper]

The occupant, a short film made from found footage from a Russian soldier’s phone.
https://youtu.be/WIZIspwem2s

[Woodchopper]

A map doing the rounds on twitter showing Russia’s decreasing ambitions. I don’t know who made it originally.

72428390-9583-4F22-AD73-8459488495AD.jpeg (251.14 KiB) Viewed 2866 times

It looks like their main goal now to capture a city.

[EACLucifer]

A map doing the rounds on twitter showing Russia’s decreasing ambitions. I don’t know who made it originally.

72428390-9583-4F22-AD73-8459488495AD.jpeg

It looks like their main goal now to capture a city.

The failed crossing at Bilohorivka potentially represented an attempt at an even smaller encirclement than the "June 2022?" one on the map, just targetting the encirclement of Lyschansk and Sievierodonetsk

[Woodchopper]

Russian tv commentator tells it like it is: https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/statu ... ICdF-klt1g

[EACLucifer]

Buses leaving Azovstal, address by Zelenskyy later. I am obviously very worried for the defenders if they surrender; Russia has murdered and tortured Azov regiment members in the past when they have captured them.

[EACLucifer]

Buses leaving Azovstal, address by Zelenskyy later. I am obviously very worried for the defenders if they surrender; Russia has murdered and tortured Azov regiment members in the past when they have captured them.

Looks like a prisoner exchange to get the wounded out. We'll see if Russia honour the deal, given they are going via Russian territory.

[jimbob]

The BBC (radio news) said that Putin is now taking personal charge of many aspects of the war and taking decisions that more junior officers would normally take.

Unfortunately I can't find a link

[Grumble]

The BBC (radio news) said that Putin is now taking personal charge of many aspects of the war and taking decisions that more junior officers would normally take.

Unfortunately I can't find a link

Same story
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... SApp_Other

It’s entirely possible that this is propaganda, especially in the wake of the disastrous river crossing that has Russian military bloggers asking “who ordered this?”

[jimbob]

I hope it is true.

Because what would really turn this into a shitshow for the Russians is a former spy running military operations at a tactical and strategic level.

[Martin_B]

I can see this working for the short-term, with Russia making gains as a result of Putin taking strategic decisions. I'm also certain that he won't be thinking about how to supply and reinforce any gained ground, so that any gains quickly turn into retreats/surrenders as much of the early gains in the north did. Which will go down well in the Kremlin.

Has anyone made a Ukraine invasion version of that Hitler bunker scene from Downfall, or is that tempting fate too much?

[lpm]

Why would Russia make gains as a result of Putin taking strategic decisions?

We're not at Steiner divisions yet, but a lot of what's reported to Putin is face-saving actions. Hitting things in order to report to the boss that you've hit things.

There's no evidence there's gains to be had with different leadership anywhere in the chain of command. At least, not under current strategy. The only way to gain territory now is to leave defenders dug in, withdraw as much as possible, rest and re-equip, train reservists, and then try another offensive in the summer. Russia has to get out of the daily attrition rut fast.

[jimbob]

I can see this working for the short-term, with Russia making gains as a result of Putin taking strategic decisions. I'm also certain that he won't be thinking about how to supply and reinforce any gained ground, so that any gains quickly turn into retreats/surrenders as much of the early gains in the north did. Which will go down well in the Kremlin.

Has anyone made a Ukraine invasion version of that Hitler bunker scene from Downfall, or is that tempting fate too much?

. It's at the tactical level - at the level of colonel or brigadier. I'm just imagining how that's going to play with the chain of command if he issues orders at that level, or even if officers think he might. I can imagine it reducing the scope for initiative and responding to events even more than before.

[EACLucifer]

Compare and contrast with Zelenskyy, who handles political matters and international relations, while leaving General Zaluzhny and the rest of the Ukrainian military leadership to get on with actually fighting the war.

Zaluzhny, incidentally, was promoted to full general near the start of the war. If the Ukrainian army really does manage to put nearly a million armed troops in the field, he could be in line for a baton at this rate.