The Invasion of Ukraine

[dyqik]

Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.

Won't be long, I expect. Not country-vs-country war, because the countries that are the major victims of fossil fuel use are mostly too poor to fight back against the powerful polluters. Places like India are a bit of an exception, but there are still powerful domestic interests there that want to keep using coal for as long as possible.

But I expect a ramping-up of insurgency and freedom-fighting isn't far off. Years of peaceful protests, up to and including self-immolation, have visibly failed, and we know from history what options that leaves people. Hopefully the targets will be mostly infrastructure.

Interesting article here on young people's anger from a climate economist https://jksteinberger.medium.com/the-ki ... 518fffb475

I suspect it's more likely to result in wars over water, made scarcer due to climate change, or land, where there's a risk of serious displacement of the population due to climate change effects.

[Bird on a Fire]

Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.

Won't be long, I expect. Not country-vs-country war, because the countries that are the major victims of fossil fuel use are mostly too poor to fight back against the powerful polluters. Places like India are a bit of an exception, but there are still powerful domestic interests there that want to keep using coal for as long as possible.

But I expect a ramping-up of insurgency and freedom-fighting isn't far off. Years of peaceful protests, up to and including self-immolation, have visibly failed, and we know from history what options that leaves people. Hopefully the targets will be mostly infrastructure.

Interesting article here on young people's anger from a climate economist https://jksteinberger.medium.com/the-ki ... 518fffb475

I suspect it's more likely to result in wars over water, made scarcer due to climate change, or land, where there's a risk of serious displacement of the population due to climate change effects.

I'm sure all those reactions will happen, yes. Catastrophic consequences for some regions are already baked in.

But people who are serious about limiting warming to ~1.5°C (bad enough, but not as catastrophic as 2°C+) are also rapidly re-evaluating their strategies.

[Martin Y]

Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.

How many divisions does Extinction Rebellion have?

[monkey]

Stupid fossil fuels. Most border tensions always seem to have a "potential oil deposits" element.

Why oh why don't humans go to war to prevent the exploitation of fossil fuels instead of to steal them.

How many divisions does Extinction Rebellion have?

They're mostly left wing, so there's probably plenty of internal splits.

[Bird on a Fire]

XR are ideologically devoted to non-violence. It's why they're always giving cops flowers and stuff. They've swallowed the revisionist whitewashing of stuff like the US civil rights movement as a purely non-violent process, and are therefore trying to emulate something that never happened.

That's not to stop some splinter group calling themselves XR, of course (especially as it's so decentralised), but it would be a strange choice of label to apply to yourself while adopting very non-XR tactics.

[Sciolus]

The anger and the impatience of the world will be uncontainable unless we make this COP26 in Glasgow the moment when we get real about climate change.

[Grumble]

Because Russia hasn’t declared war Russian soldiers can refuse to fight, and their only punishment is to be sacked.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... SApp_Other

[Woodchopper]

Because Russia hasn’t declared war Russian soldiers can refuse to fight, and their only punishment is to be sacked.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... SApp_Other

I think that would be better summarized as they can refuse to be sent to the special military operation. I'd be very surprised is someone wasn't to be punished if they refused to fight in the middle of a battle.

[lpm]

Er... guys... I mean come on, just because something is written on paper doesn't mean it has any validity in Putin's Russia.

A handful of troops might have got away with it, but 99% who try it will get the sh.t beaten out of them.

And I wonder what percentage of British WW2 troops told their commanders they weren't going to fight and were discreetly transferred to other roles where they could be useful rather than let them be disruptive on the front line.

The Guardian comes across as pretty naive in this article.

[Woodchopper]

The occupant, a short film made from found footage from a Russian soldier’s phone.
https://youtu.be/WIZIspwem2s

[Woodchopper]

A map doing the rounds on twitter showing Russia’s decreasing ambitions. I don’t know who made it originally.

72428390-9583-4F22-AD73-8459488495AD.jpeg (251.14 KiB) Viewed 102 times

It looks like their main goal now to capture a city.

[EACLucifer]

A map doing the rounds on twitter showing Russia’s decreasing ambitions. I don’t know who made it originally.

72428390-9583-4F22-AD73-8459488495AD.jpeg

It looks like their main goal now to capture a city.

The failed crossing at Bilohorivka potentially represented an attempt at an even smaller encirclement than the "June 2022?" one on the map, just targetting the encirclement of Lyschansk and Sievierodonetsk