The Invasion of Ukraine

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jimbob
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:52 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:26 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:16 pm
AP news story on it

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 1b52ff9d52
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — A senior U.S. intelligence official says Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people.

Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller did not immediately confirm the information, but said top leaders were holding an emergency meeting due to a “crisis situation.”

Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine.

Describes "missiles" so it looks like Russia trying for implausible deniability
They hit right near the border, so it's most likely they missed what they were aiming at. However, hitting civilians in one country because you missed when aiming at civilians in another country isn't much of an excuse.
At the least a complete disregard for the risks of violating the territorial integrity of Poland.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Woodchopper
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:54 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:25 pm
Aside from hitting Poland (which, incidentally, is more likely to see an Article 4 response than an Article 5 one),
I agree. So long as it’s assumed to be an accident this isn’t a reason to go to war.

NATO should though respond so as to ensure that Russia is very careful in the future and there aren’t any more accidents.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by lpm » Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:57 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:13 pm
Poland's called an emergency meeting of their national security council. More news will presumably follow.

My thoughts at the moment are that a response is required. That response should meet three criteria;

It should be measured and limited, a one off response to a one off incident, to be repeated if necessary on a larger scale if there are further violations of NATO territory.

Any kinetic response should be confined solely to legitimate military targets.

The response should be very disproportionate, to communicate in the clearest possible terms that such behaviour will never be tolerated from Russia, and pour encourager les autres
Surely the best response would be to pack Ukraine wall-to-wall with Nato air defence equipment.
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Woodchopper
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:58 pm

Russian Ministry of Defence publishes a message completely denying any involvement with the missile explosions in Poland. Moreover, they blame Poland for "deliberate escalation".
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 3mECldG9Jg

Well they would, wouldn’t they.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:02 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:54 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:25 pm
Aside from hitting Poland (which, incidentally, is more likely to see an Article 4 response than an Article 5 one),
I agree. So long as it’s assumed to be an accident this isn’t a reason to go to war.

NATO should though respond so as to ensure that Russia is very careful in the future and there aren’t any more accidents.
War's a fairly flexible concept. A round of standoff missiles fired at Russian military positions - potentially in Belarus - would be a very strong reply, but not one Russia could easily do something about.

There are alternatives, though. For example, NATO could equip Ukraine with the means to hit back at Russian launching positions.

Or the Baltic states might decide they really want to close the border to Kaliningrad, and force Russia to find a way round that.

But strongly worded letters, more of the same air-defence to Ukraine or slightly more sanctions aren't going to cut it.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:02 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:58 pm
Russian Ministry of Defence publishes a message completely denying any involvement with the missile explosions in Poland. Moreover, they blame Poland for "deliberate escalation".
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 3mECldG9Jg

Well they would, wouldn’t they.
They might, but it's still a mistake.

Assuming that it is a Russian missile and proven to be so, I don't think that such a denial will go down well.

The Kremlin still thinks it's 2014 and they can issue blatantly false denials.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:04 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:57 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:13 pm
Poland's called an emergency meeting of their national security council. More news will presumably follow.

My thoughts at the moment are that a response is required. That response should meet three criteria;

It should be measured and limited, a one off response to a one off incident, to be repeated if necessary on a larger scale if there are further violations of NATO territory.

Any kinetic response should be confined solely to legitimate military targets.

The response should be very disproportionate, to communicate in the clearest possible terms that such behaviour will never be tolerated from Russia, and pour encourager les autres
Surely the best response would be to pack Ukraine wall-to-wall with Nato air defence equipment.
The response needs to be a step-change from what's been sent already, because it needs to clearly be a consequence for Russia's actions. So Patriot batteries might do it, but more of the same won't.

Ukraine's pushing for F15s and F16s - send them, and that does send a message.

And it needs to be clear that further incidents merit further responses, which means further responses need to be planned out and available.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:07 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:02 pm
Assuming that it is a Russian missile and proven to be so, I don't think that such a denial will go down well.
There's some suggestions that some of the wreckage might be an S-300's missile, but 1) Russia uses thoses in a ground attack role, so not necessarily an interceptor 2) there were reportedly two missiles, and if there were an interceptor involved, chasing after another missile would be the most likely reason for it ending up in Poland 3) the crater appears to be enormous, bigger than one would expect with an S-300 4) Even in the most favourable to Russia scenario of a stray interceptor, it's still a consequence of Russia's attacks against civilian infrastructure. The most likely target in the area, given their focus on targetting Ukraine's energy and heating infrastructure, is one of the main powerlines linking Ukraine to Europe's grid.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:13 pm

So what crashed in the village of Przewodów, Poland today?

With the cooperation of @blueboy1969 we analyzed the available photos of fragments and came to a clear conclusion that they belong to the 48D6 motor of the 5V55-series missile of the S-300 AD system- a Ukrainian one.
https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... 3mECldG9Jg

More at the thread

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:18 pm

Another well regarded account IDs a fragment as part of a Ukrainian air defence missile.
https://twitter.com/calibreobscura/stat ... 3mECldG9Jg

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:19 pm

As mentioned in the threads it looks like some fragments have been identified. But we don’t know what else is to be found.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:25 pm

Hole is a bit big for an air defence missile isn’t it? Was it chasing a larger RU missile?

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:26 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:25 pm
Hole is a bit big for an air defence missile isn’t it? Was it chasing a larger RU missile?
Given the reports of two missiles, that's very possible.

NATO have a lot of surveillance assets in that area, so we should get a good idea about what was fired. It's worth noting that so far American officials seem to have talked about a Russian missile.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:27 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:25 pm
Hole is a bit big for an air defence missile isn’t it? Was it chasing a larger RU missile?
That seems to be a likely cause of an air defence missile hitting Poland.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:10 pm

NATO holding emergency meeting in about twelve hours time, so the sort of person that panics about imminent nuclear armagadden can calm down for now; that does not suggest an immediate violent response.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:18 pm

bjn wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:25 pm
Hole is a bit big for an air defence missile isn’t it? Was it chasing a larger RU missile?
A quick google finds these big looking holes claimed to be made by S300s. I don't know whether that's been verified though.
https://youtu.be/I-9vTCXkJuk
https://images.app.goo.gl/VXb7NcSpE87AhfLm9 from: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/35 ... maged.html#

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:27 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:18 pm
bjn wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:25 pm
Hole is a bit big for an air defence missile isn’t it? Was it chasing a larger RU missile?
A quick google finds these big looking holes claimed to be made by S300s. I don't know whether that's been verified though.
https://youtu.be/I-9vTCXkJuk
https://images.app.goo.gl/VXb7NcSpE87AhfLm9 from: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/35 ... maged.html#
Crater size is only ever a rough guide anyway as it depends on environmental conditions and is very heavily affected by the eight of burst. I've seen S-300s associated with quite small craters - but that could be just an airburst. The key evidence which we're only going to see if it's made public will be the surveillance and tracking radars both on the ground and in the air in Eastern Europe.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:53 am

The key thing at this point is to recognise that while it's ok to talk through potential scenarios, we don't have most of the facts we need, so we shouldn't get too attached to one scenario and prejudice ourselves against the others.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:16 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:27 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:18 pm
bjn wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:25 pm
Hole is a bit big for an air defence missile isn’t it? Was it chasing a larger RU missile?
A quick google finds these big looking holes claimed to be made by S300s. I don't know whether that's been verified though.
https://youtu.be/I-9vTCXkJuk
https://images.app.goo.gl/VXb7NcSpE87AhfLm9 from: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/35 ... maged.html#
Crater size is only ever a rough guide anyway as it depends on environmental conditions and is very heavily affected by the eight of burst. I've seen S-300s associated with quite small craters - but that could be just an airburst. The key evidence which we're only going to see if it's made public will be the surveillance and tracking radars both on the ground and in the air in Eastern Europe.
Certainly, and there are also factors like the speed of the missile and how much fuel explodes.

We’ll need to wait for a full bomb damage assessment to be certain.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:10 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:16 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:27 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:18 pm


A quick google finds these big looking holes claimed to be made by S300s. I don't know whether that's been verified though.
https://youtu.be/I-9vTCXkJuk
https://images.app.goo.gl/VXb7NcSpE87AhfLm9 from: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/35 ... maged.html#
Crater size is only ever a rough guide anyway as it depends on environmental conditions and is very heavily affected by the eight of burst. I've seen S-300s associated with quite small craters - but that could be just an airburst. The key evidence which we're only going to see if it's made public will be the surveillance and tracking radars both on the ground and in the air in Eastern Europe.
Certainly, and there are also factors like the speed of the missile and how much fuel explodes.

We’ll need to wait for a full bomb damage assessment to be certain.
If I've interpreted things correctly, S-300 parts have been found in the vicinity of Kh-101 strikes, too, which would fit with the theory of trying to intercept something, though there's lots of theories that could fit what little evidence we have so far.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bob sterman » Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:55 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:53 am
The key thing at this point is to recognise that while it's ok to talk through potential scenarios, we don't have most of the facts we need, so we shouldn't get too attached to one scenario and prejudice ourselves against the others.
Yes. And given the seriousness of the situation it's surprising how many news organisations (some with a reputation for supposedly careful research) made very strong assertions about what had happened at a very early stage.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:05 am

President Joe Biden said on Wednesday in Bali after the emergency meeting that there was “preliminary information that contests” the missile was fired from Russia.

“It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia but we’ll see,” he told reporters.

Poland’s president and prime minister did not confirm allegations that the missile was fired by Russia during a midnight news conference in which they both appeared to avoid statements that could escalate tensions with Moscow.

“There is no conclusive evidence about who fired the rocket,” said President Andrzej Duda after an emergency security meeting of the Polish government. Duda also referred to the missile strike as a “one-off incident”.
https://www.ft.com/content/6606c639-263 ... d8a9964068

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:07 am

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:55 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:53 am
The key thing at this point is to recognise that while it's ok to talk through potential scenarios, we don't have most of the facts we need, so we shouldn't get too attached to one scenario and prejudice ourselves against the others.
Yes. And given the seriousness of the situation it's surprising how many news organisations (some with a reputation for supposedly careful research) made very strong assertions about what had happened at a very early stage.
Yes, particularly as the Polish government hadn’t attributed responsibility.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:12 am


Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one amid the crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

That assessment and Biden’s comments at the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia contradict information earlier Tuesday from a senior U.S. intelligence official who told the AP that Russian missiles crossed into Poland.

The Polish government said it was investigating and raising its level of military preparedness. Biden pledged support for Poland’s investigation.

A statement from the Polish Foreign Ministry identified the weapon as being made in Russia. President Andrzej Duda was more cautious, saying that it was “most probably” Russian-made but that its origins were still being verified.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 1b52ff9d52

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:34 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:07 am
bob sterman wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 5:55 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:53 am
The key thing at this point is to recognise that while it's ok to talk through potential scenarios, we don't have most of the facts we need, so we shouldn't get too attached to one scenario and prejudice ourselves against the others.
Yes. And given the seriousness of the situation it's surprising how many news organisations (some with a reputation for supposedly careful research) made very strong assertions about what had happened at a very early stage.
Yes, particularly as the Polish government hadn’t attributed responsibility.
Once S-300 parts established, conclusion fairly inevitable. Frustrated with claims must be Ukrainian because specific model, as no reason Russia could not have used something they'd formally retired, however, too far from Belarus for launch from there.

However, main remaining question is whether only S-300. Cruise missile potentially below radar, so site examination necessary to see if parts are present.

If S-300 only, tragic accident, however would have never occured but for Russia's massed attacks on civilian targets. Also would not have occured if Ukraine had enough modern air defence, inc. fighter jets for CAP.

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