The Invasion of Ukraine

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:37 am

Poland appear to want to use article 4 in response. This is appropriate for all possible scenarios.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:59 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:37 am
Poland appear to want to use article 4 in response. This is appropriate for all possible scenarios.
That missiles have spilled over into their borders is plenty enough reason to at least have the discussions. Beefing up air defenses is always a fine idea, even more so if some coverage from Poland can extend to protect parts of Ukraine.

I wonder how the delivery and installation of air defenses is going - last I read more systems were pledged but no idea how many are in service or how many more could be provided.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:28 am

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:59 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:37 am
Poland appear to want to use article 4 in response. This is appropriate for all possible scenarios.
That missiles have spilled over into their borders is plenty enough reason to at least have the discussions. Beefing up air defenses is always a fine idea, even more so if some coverage from Poland can extend to protect parts of Ukraine.

I wonder how the delivery and installation of air defenses is going - last I read more systems were pledged but no idea how many are in service or how many more could be provided.
I think NASAMS is now in service. The problem is that it's a long border, and Russia is firing missiles all along it, from Belarus all the way to missiles fired by Tu-95s over the Caspian and ship-launched cruise missiles from the Black Sea Fleet.

There's a trend to supplying obsolescent systems, too, like the American Hawk missile system, supplied by America and Spain, and that's a good idea - it allows an increase in coverage that will still work quite well against cruise missiles, which fly low and slow. It looks like most of the cruise milles and Shaitanmopeds are getting shot down, but the problem is some are still getting through. Ballistic missiles represent a threat that is much harder to counter.

I think this incident ought to concentrate minds on dealing with the Russian threat, however, the massed attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine ought to do that to.

One of the best ways to counter cruise missiles is fighter jets, and that's a problem that can be fixed. By now, if western jets had been agreed to in a more reasonable manner and time frame, they'd be in service already. The longer that is delayed, the more people die.

The other way is to hit back. To destroy the launching infrastructure, and to impose a cost on Russia that they cannot ignore. One of the threats is the Black Sea Fleet. Sevastopol is less than 240km from Ukrainian territory, yet the US still self-deters, even as Russia sources ballistic missiles from Iran. It's ridiculous and self-defeating.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:02 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:28 am
...yet the US still self-deters, even as Russia sources ballistic missiles from Iran. It's ridiculous and self-defeating.
I agree. The US seem to want Putin to lose slowly.

I'm all for ATACMS being supplied on the basis it gets used for targets no more than 50 miles beyond Ukraine's borders. Same for air power.

Longer range assets allow Ukraine to destroy Russians everywhere on Ukrainian soil, destroy material in their near borders supporting Russian efforts in Ukraine, and increase the Russian body bag count going home to pressure Putin into ending his mad war.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:29 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:02 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:28 am
...yet the US still self-deters, even as Russia sources ballistic missiles from Iran. It's ridiculous and self-defeating.
I agree. The US seem to want Putin to lose slowly.
I worry the US don't really know what they want, and aren't sure how to achieve it. If they do want Putin to lose slowly, though, that's a foolish and deeply immoral approach that is likely to increase the costs of the war to the world as a whole as well as to Ukraine, and to increase radicalisation and the risks for more war worldwide.
I'm all for ATACMS being supplied on the basis it gets used for targets no more than 50 miles beyond Ukraine's borders. Same for air power.

Longer range assets allow Ukraine to destroy Russians everywhere on Ukrainian soil, destroy material in their near borders supporting Russian efforts in Ukraine, and increase the Russian body bag count going home to pressure Putin into ending his mad war.
There's a lot of options between nothing and free for all. Only targets in Ukrainian borders would be an unfair limitation as far as I'm concerned, but long range strike capabilities with that restriction would still radically strengthen Ukraine's ability to fight against the invasion, as it would mean the Russians couldn't hide assets out of range but on Ukrainian soil. This is particularly key in the south, where there isn't any Russian soil that close to do the job instead.

Another option - which I prefer - would be to supply serious long range assets explicitly to counter the missile and drone threat, but with the restriction that they can only be used on missile launching sites, against the Black Sea Fleet, and against airfields.

Asking people we gave security guarantees to - and pressured to abandon the sort of capabilities they need now - to endure missile strikes and cold and darkness as their infrastructure is destroyed because we are scared of a very small risk of retaliation is selfish and immoral.
Last edited by El Pollo Diablo on Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed quote

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 1:56 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:59 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:37 am
Poland appear to want to use article 4 in response. This is appropriate for all possible scenarios.
That missiles have spilled over into their borders is plenty enough reason to at least have the discussions. Beefing up air defenses is always a fine idea, even more so if some coverage from Poland can extend to protect parts of Ukraine.
Further thoughts on this. In general, think good idea, but needs to be carefully worked out so that no chance of hitting Ukrainian aircraft.

Personally, I would place NATO air defences all along northern border as far as Sumy and also around Odesa, and if they have to shoot down Russian jets, well, f.ck 'em, but sadly this approach is unlikely. Alternatively, with appropriate cooperation with the Ukrainians, F-35s and F-22s could fly CAP, as they would be relatively safe. If that's not viable over Ukraine, we should at least offer that protection to Moldova, which has suffered overflights by Russian missiles. Again, though, coordination with Ukraine necessary to avoid friendly fire.
I wonder how the delivery and installation of air defenses is going - last I read more systems were pledged but no idea how many are in service or how many more could be provided.
Britain is currently retiring Rapier batteries. These would be ideal for point defence against cruise missiles - it's what they were designed to do, and while they were criticised in the Falklands, their performance there was impacted by the loss of much ammunition in transit. Also, the missiles in use now are proximity fused, and don't rely on a direct hit as the older sort did.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by philbo » Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:16 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:05 am
President Joe Biden said on Wednesday in Bali after the emergency meeting that there was “preliminary information that contests” the missile was fired from Russia.

“It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia but we’ll see,” he told reporters.

Poland’s president and prime minister did not confirm allegations that the missile was fired by Russia during a midnight news conference in which they both appeared to avoid statements that could escalate tensions with Moscow.

“There is no conclusive evidence about who fired the rocket,” said President Andrzej Duda after an emergency security meeting of the Polish government. Duda also referred to the missile strike as a “one-off incident”.
https://www.ft.com/content/6606c639-263 ... d8a9964068
Damn, those midnight news conferences can get heated :D

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 3:38 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:05 am
President Joe Biden said on Wednesday in Bali after the emergency meeting that there was “preliminary information that contests” the missile was fired from Russia.

“It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia but we’ll see,” he told reporters.

Poland’s president and prime minister did not confirm allegations that the missile was fired by Russia during a midnight news conference in which they both appeared to avoid statements that could escalate tensions with Moscow.

“There is no conclusive evidence about who fired the rocket,” said President Andrzej Duda after an emergency security meeting of the Polish government. Duda also referred to the missile strike as a “one-off incident”.
https://www.ft.com/content/6606c639-263 ... d8a9964068
It's important to note here how cautious and sensible NATO countries are being - even Duda. It utterly refutes the charge made by various tankie morons and Corbynites and other a..eholes that NATO is aggressive or reckless.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:59 pm

The occupiers stole everything from Kherson: paintings from art galleries, antiquities from museums, historic manuscripts from libraries. But their most prized loot was a raccoon they stole from a zoo. Steal a raccoon and Die.
Via official Ukrainian government account.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:30 pm

A disagreement broke out on Wednesday between Ukraine and its western allies over who launched a missile that exploded in Poland, with Nato, Warsaw and the US saying the weapon was likely fired by Kyiv’s air defence forces during a Russian attack.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy disputed this, insisting he had “no doubt” the missile that landed in the village of Przewodów near the Ukrainian border on Tuesday afternoon, killing two people, was not a Ukrainian missile.

[…]

Andrzej Duda, Poland’s president, told a press conference in Poland on Wednesday that investigators believed that “most likely” it had been a Russian-made missile produced in the 1970s, the S300. “We have no evidence that it was launched by Russia.”

The White House backed Warsaw’s view. “We have seen nothing that contradicts President Duda’s preliminary assessment that this explosion was most likely the result of a Ukrainian air defence missile that unfortunately landed in Poland,” US National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said.

[…]

Zelenskyy and some western nations initially blamed Russia for launching the weapon, which was fired during Moscow’s biggest missile attack in weeks, and Ukraine’s leader maintained this stance on Wednesday.

“I have no doubt from the evening report to me personally — from the commander of the air force to commander-in-chief [of Ukraine’s military Gen Valerii] Zaluzhny — that it was not our missile or our missile strike,” he said on Wednesday evening. “It makes no sense for me not to trust them, I’ve gone through the war with them.”

The president also repeated calls by his national security chief, Oleksiy Danilov, for Ukrainian investigators to be given access to the crash site.

“If, God forbid, some [missile] debris killed these people, we have to apologise,” he said. “But, sorry, first an investigation, access, the data you have — we want to have this.”

Responding to Zelenskyy’s comments, a diplomat from a Nato country in Kyiv told the Financial Times: “This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.”


https://www.ft.com/content/d417ea8f-62e ... 5a98fc6b3a

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bob sterman » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:38 pm

Ukraine war: Poland missile strike reveals Nato divisions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63651154
Ukraine was swift to blame Russia. President Zelensky called it "a Russian missile attack on collective security" and as such "a very significant escalation". Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said it was "a conspiracy theory" to suggest missiles were part of Ukrainian air defences. These claims about Russia subsequently appear unfounded.

This kind of rhetoric is beginning to exhaust the patience of some Western diplomats. They fear that Kyiv's at times maximalist language and demands risk adding to so-called "Ukraine fatigue" among allies.
Will the strike also reveal forum divisions?

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:40 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:30 pm
A disagreement broke out on Wednesday between Ukraine and its western allies over who launched a missile that exploded in Poland, with Nato, Warsaw and the US saying the weapon was likely fired by Kyiv’s air defence forces during a Russian attack.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy disputed this, insisting he had “no doubt” the missile that landed in the village of Przewodów near the Ukrainian border on Tuesday afternoon, killing two people, was not a Ukrainian missile.

[…]

Andrzej Duda, Poland’s president, told a press conference in Poland on Wednesday that investigators believed that “most likely” it had been a Russian-made missile produced in the 1970s, the S300. “We have no evidence that it was launched by Russia.”

The White House backed Warsaw’s view. “We have seen nothing that contradicts President Duda’s preliminary assessment that this explosion was most likely the result of a Ukrainian air defence missile that unfortunately landed in Poland,” US National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said.

[…]

Zelenskyy and some western nations initially blamed Russia for launching the weapon, which was fired during Moscow’s biggest missile attack in weeks, and Ukraine’s leader maintained this stance on Wednesday.

“I have no doubt from the evening report to me personally — from the commander of the air force to commander-in-chief [of Ukraine’s military Gen Valerii] Zaluzhny — that it was not our missile or our missile strike,” he said on Wednesday evening. “It makes no sense for me not to trust them, I’ve gone through the war with them.”

The president also repeated calls by his national security chief, Oleksiy Danilov, for Ukrainian investigators to be given access to the crash site.

“If, God forbid, some [missile] debris killed these people, we have to apologise,” he said. “But, sorry, first an investigation, access, the data you have — we want to have this.”

Responding to Zelenskyy’s comments, a diplomat from a Nato country in Kyiv told the Financial Times: “This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.”


https://www.ft.com/content/d417ea8f-62e ... 5a98fc6b3a


If Ukraine were tracking a Russian missile heading that way, I can see why they'd be saying it. And it's quite probable they were, as they launched an interceptor.

It makes a lot of sense to give Ukrainian investigators access to the crash site. There isn't a reason not to, and it also buys time to smooth things over diplomatically.

Meanwhile, I am seeing some Ukrainians pointing out that this is overshadowing the continued attempts to destroy civilian infrastructure and kill civilians both directly and indirectly. Others have - entirely correctly - pointed out that if countries like Germany and the US had not dragged their heels so much on proper air defence when Russia was first bombing Kyiv, and had provided jets to Ukraine or allowed them to be sold to Ukraine, they wouldn't be relying on S-300s in the first place.

EDIT: Something about the Zelenskyy quote put it in italics, which carried across to my post.
Last edited by EACLucifer on Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:43 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:38 pm
Ukraine war: Poland missile strike reveals Nato divisions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63651154
Ukraine was swift to blame Russia. President Zelensky called it "a Russian missile attack on collective security" and as such "a very significant escalation". Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said it was "a conspiracy theory" to suggest missiles were part of Ukrainian air defences. These claims about Russia subsequently appear unfounded.

This kind of rhetoric is beginning to exhaust the patience of some Western diplomats. They fear that Kyiv's at times maximalist language and demands risk adding to so-called "Ukraine fatigue" among allies.
Will the strike also reveal forum divisions?
Strike tends to refer to deliberate actions. A rogue 5V55 probably shouldn't be referred to as a strike.

And giving the viewpoint of western diplomats frustrated with Ukraine asking for the tools to defend its population but not the viewpoint of Ukrainian diplomats frustrated with the patronising attitude of western governments who cost Ukrainian lives with their dithering is the kind of western-centric journalism that frustrates a lot of Ukrainians, as it utterly privileges the western viewpoint over the Ukrainian one when it's the Ukrainians facing the cold and darkness of powercuts and the shelling of their homes.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bob sterman » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:45 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:43 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:38 pm
Ukraine war: Poland missile strike reveals Nato divisions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63651154
Ukraine was swift to blame Russia. President Zelensky called it "a Russian missile attack on collective security" and as such "a very significant escalation". Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said it was "a conspiracy theory" to suggest missiles were part of Ukrainian air defences. These claims about Russia subsequently appear unfounded.

This kind of rhetoric is beginning to exhaust the patience of some Western diplomats. They fear that Kyiv's at times maximalist language and demands risk adding to so-called "Ukraine fatigue" among allies.
Will the strike also reveal forum divisions?
Strike tends to refer to deliberate actions. A rogue 5V55 probably shouldn't be referred to as a strike.
Yes - sorry I was just adapting the BBC headline. Should have put "strike" in quotes.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:48 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:45 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:43 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:38 pm
Ukraine war: Poland missile strike reveals Nato divisions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63651154



Will the strike also reveal forum divisions?
Strike tends to refer to deliberate actions. A rogue 5V55 probably shouldn't be referred to as a strike.
Yes - sorry I was just adapting the BBC headline. Should have put "strike" in quotes.
I hope they are just using the term as a hangover from the point when everyone was thinking it was a Russian strike. Which it might be, if there were two missiles, though I think a stray 5V55 interceptor is more likely - the system does do that. I've not been terribly impressed by the BBC on a number of axes lately, though, so f.ck knows.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:20 pm

People, please remember that this part of the forum is supposed to be for serious discussion. Please could you all keep it that way.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TimW » Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:50 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:43 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:38 pm
Will the strike also reveal forum divisions?
Strike tends to refer to deliberate actions. A rogue 5V55 probably shouldn't be referred to as a strike.
(Apparently it will.) Strike tends to refer to deliberate actions, but doesn't always. Lightning, birds in plane engines, and stray missiles, all end up striking.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:30 pm

TimW wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:50 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:43 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:38 pm
Will the strike also reveal forum divisions?
Strike tends to refer to deliberate actions. A rogue 5V55 probably shouldn't be referred to as a strike.
(Apparently it will.)
It was a minor quibble about wording that turned out to be the BBC's wording - there's no reason to make a big deal about it.
Strike tends to refer to deliberate actions, but doesn't always. Lightning, birds in plane engines, and stray missiles, all end up striking.
You could put it that way, I suppose. The emphasis on western viewpoints over Ukrainian ones is still deeply frustrating, though.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:31 pm

One major concern regarding last night's incident in eastern Poland; apparently when the US tried to talk to Russia about it, Russia did not respond. It is vital at all points that lines of communication used for deconfliction are kept open. Miscommunication and misunderstanding of intentions are the most dangerous factor for unintended escalation.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin_B » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:00 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:59 pm
The occupiers stole everything from Kherson: paintings from art galleries, antiquities from museums, historic manuscripts from libraries. But their most prized loot was a raccoon they stole from a zoo. Steal a raccoon and Die.
Via official Ukrainian government account.
Raccoons are American. Maybe the Russians expect another Brittney Griner-type hostage.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:55 am

Ukraine’s Appetite for Weapons Is Straining Western Stockpiles
“I think everyone now is sufficiently worried,” a NATO official said.

As the war in Ukraine shows little sign of abating, Kyiv’s Western partners are grappling with how to maintain a supply of arms and ammunition to Ukraine, which have proven decisive on the battlefield, without letting their stockpiles dwindle to the point that it could jeopardize their own readiness levels.

“I think everyone is now sufficiently worried,’” said a NATO official who spoke on condition of anonymity, adding that allies had called on Western defense contractors to ramp up production in the wake of the war. “The relevance of stockpiling is back.”

NATO is now discussing how to support members if their stockpiles fall below the levels needed to meet their defense obligations under the North Atlantic Treaty, the official said. Although decisions around military aid to Ukraine fall to individual members of the alliance, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has repeatedly spoken out about the need for continued assistance to Ukraine.

[…]

But back in Washington, some former officials are wishing that the Biden administration and NATO allies had gotten the message sooner, and they want defense spending, which has boomed since Russia’s full-scale invasion, to continue to spike for the foreseeable future. “Even if there wasn’t the Ukrainian fight, our stockpiles are still too low,” said Jeb Nadaner, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for industrial policy during the Trump administration. “You don’t have to invent the weapons of the 22nd century to do this, but the industry will need a stable demand signal.”

During the Cold War, the United States kept large stockpiles of weapons, rare earths, and other materials to quickly ramp up production if it ever ended up in a shooting war with the Soviet Union. But the United States and European allies began to draw down those stockpiles after the fall of the Soviet Union and as Washington pivoted to the war on terrorism as well as a greater reliance on precision munitions and new technologies.

“NATO doesn’t really plan to fight wars like this, and by that I mean wars with a super intensive use of artillery systems and lots of tank and gun rounds,” said Frederick Kagan, a senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute. “We were never stocked for this kind of war to begin with.”

That has had a compounding effect on already dwindling weapons reserves. Nadaner said Pentagon stockpiles are low on sea-launched missiles, such as Harpoons and Tomahawks; joint direct attack munitions; and the munitions heavily used by the Ukrainians, such as Javelin anti-tank missiles and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. Ukraine has received 20 of the rocket launchers and has about 18 more on the way.

“The idea that the United States, in some cases, has just a few weeks of stores for the magazine and they’re going to empty out, it really harms deterrence,” Nadaner said.

Behind the scenes, the United States and other NATO powers have urged Western defense companies to bump up production, calling back to the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea. However, current and former officials and analysts said defense contractors have been slow to respond as they wait for assurances that the era of an increased arms appetite is here to stay.

“What they say is essentially show me the money,” said Mark Cancian, who served as chief of the Pentagon’s force structure and investment division until 2015. “Their fear is that the war will end and the orders will end and they will end up with these expanded factories that don’t have any orders to fill them.” Contributing to bottlenecks in production are rising prices of critical raw materials and a shortage of skilled labor.

In mainland Europe, where military aid to Ukraine is being dwarfed by the United States and some countries, such as Germany, are still reluctant to dust off old tanks to send to Ukraine, leaders do not want a mobilization that would put the defense industry back on a seeming war footing. And skilled workers—high school-level-trained technicians, designers, and safety and environmental experts—are often reluctant to bring their talents to the defense industry, fearing that they could be first on the chopping block in any downturn.

“Nobody is thinking that we should be going back to World War II and producing a plane per minute or a tank per minute,” said Camille Grand, a distinguished policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who was a NATO assistant secretary-general until this month.

For instance, France has debated replenishing artillery stocks after sending 16 CAESAR howitzer cannons to Ukraine this summer, but it has faced limits on production capacity. “Simply, there are not that many companies in Europe that are capable of doing a gun barrel,” Grand said.

The issue has occupied armament directors in NATO countries for months, including at the last alliance-wide defense ministerial in June. The U.S. Defense Department is starting to rebuild munitions stockpiles that have been used by the Ukrainians. On Monday, the U.S. Army said it had awarded Lockheed Martin more than $520 million in late October and early November to replenish stocks of guided multiple launch rockets used by Ukraine. Still, even as the United States is making moves to ramp up artillery production and kick-start production of shoulder-fired missiles, the Pentagon is getting criticism from Europe that the effort is moving too slowly.

“What industry wants is signed contracts,” said a congressional aide familiar with the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity to talk about ongoing negotiations. “We’ve been doing a lot of talking without a lot of signing. What we’ve mostly heard from the Europeans is like, ‘Hey, we just want to piggyback on whatever you guys are doing.’ They don’t want to wait. They’re tired of waiting.”

And the Ukrainians are also tired of waiting. Even as Ukraine has made extensive gains in a nearly four-month-long offensive—liberating Russian-held areas around Kharkiv and forcing the Kremlin to order a withdrawal from the critical southern city of Kherson—Ukrainian officials are concerned that they are running short on even the most basic weapons that they need, such as light arms and shoulder-fired missile systems, such as Stingers, Javelins, and the British and Swedish next generation light anti-tank weapons system, known as NLAW.

In an all-out artillery war with the Russians that has lasted almost since the Kremlin declared an offensive in the Donbas region in April, Ukraine has practically run itself out of Soviet-standard artillery, which comprises about 60 percent of their arsenal, forcing Kyiv to rely more heavily on NATO-standard artillery that can’t be produced fast enough to sustain the fight.

“We literally almost ran out of 152 [millimeter artillery],” said Sasha Ustinova, a Ukrainian parliamentarian. “So we’re totally dependent on the 155 [millimeter artillery], and the 155 is limited.”

Ukraine has also been challenged by how far the front lines have been stretched by the offensive, officials said. Although the war-torn nation has enough munitions and equipment to sustain fighting in the eastern Donbas region and the southern region of Mykolaiv, another Russian attack to the north could stretch supply lines thin.

At the same time, Moscow is also grappling with its own stockpile challenges, forcing it to turn to Iran and North Korea to bolster its dwindling supplies. “If you’re turning to a country [like North Korea] that has effectively zero GDP and is using World War II-era systems as its main tanks, if you’re buying stuff from them, then you’re hurting,” Kagan said. “We’ve also seen various indications that the Russians have had to ration artillery.” Ukrainian officials believe the Russian armed forces may have as few as 120 Iskander short-range missiles left in their arsenal.

Yet with U.S. and NATO officials seeing no clear end in sight to the nearly 9-month-long war and even with Ukraine clawing back more than half of its territory, once occupied by Russia, since February, Western militaries are getting ready for a prolonged period of change.

“We’re in this for the long game,” Grande said. “The security environment in Europe has changed so much since Feb. 24. This is not an issue that will vanish overnight.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/16/uk ... -industry/

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:00 pm

How does this work, exactly?

NATO countries clearly have capacity to manufacture weapons, because they're always doing billion-dollar deals with horrible Putinesque regimes.

Is the issue that so far they've basically been clearing out old cruft from the bomb cupboards, without investing in replacing stocks?
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Woodchopper
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:30 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:00 pm
How does this work, exactly?

NATO countries clearly have capacity to manufacture weapons, because they're always doing billion-dollar deals with horrible Putinesque regimes.

Is the issue that so far they've basically been clearing out old cruft from the bomb cupboards, without investing in replacing stocks?
They don’t have enough capacity, especially for the production of things like missiles and ammunition.

Billion dollar deals don’t actually involve that much equipment as the items are so expensive. Even when it’s a lot of units deliveries are over a decade or so.

For example:
It has also sent more than 8,500 Javelins. Congress has since provided the military over $1 billion to replace the missiles. On Tuesday, the Army ordered more than 1,800 Javelins for delivery by Nov. 30, 2026, under a $311 million contract to Raytheon and Lockheed Martin’s Javelin Joint Venture.
https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2022/ ... es/377225/

So it’ll take four years to produce 1800 Javelins. That’s about 20 per cent of what’s been sent to Ukraine already. Production is only a bit less than 40 per month. It’s very likely that use in Ukraine far exceeds production.

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EACLucifer
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:56 pm

Volodymr Zelenskyy wrote:Yesterday we received confirmation that our experts will participate in the investigation. Until the investigation is completed, we cannot say for sure which missiles or their parts fell on the territory of Poland...
Absolutely correct to include Ukrainian experts in the assessment, both in of itself and because it allows time to smooth things over.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:14 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:56 pm
Volodymr Zelenskyy wrote:Yesterday we received confirmation that our experts will participate in the investigation. Until the investigation is completed, we cannot say for sure which missiles or their parts fell on the territory of Poland...
Absolutely correct to include Ukrainian experts in the assessment, both in of itself and because it allows time to smooth things over.
But isn't the reason things need "smoothing over" because Ukraine cast doubt on Poland's / NATO's initial findings?

Ukraine finds itself at somewhat at odds with NATO here, in that Ukraine probably hopes to find evidence of a deliberate Russian missile attack on Poland that would invoke a NATO response to hobble its aggressor. NATO of course would prefer that this were an unfortunate accident not to be repeated and not to be dragged in as a direct combatant.

So, having not seen a shred of evidence either way, I would expect their findings to lean in different directions.

But anyway - just as Russia didn't go to war with Turkey over a jet being shot down, NATO is not going to war with Russia over a missile veering or being knocked off course. Ukraine would do well to let this one go and not irk their supporters.
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