The Invasion of Ukraine

[TopBadger]

Given Ukraine is winning, and pushing the Russians back, and both sides have conditions the other isn't willing to meet, I think a negotiated settlement is extremely unlikely and that Ukraine will oust Russia.

Bear in mind the US is spending a vert small percent (~5?) of its defense budget supporting Ukraine - there is plenty of room to step up support (notably by supplying tanks, aircraft, boats, longer range missiles). In military analyst terms spending such a small amount of budget to cripple a 'near-peer' hostile country military threat is a stonking great ROI.

It would be a mistake to expect US support to wain anytime soon, or that of Ukraine's other western (and eastern) supporters.

[dyqik]

Given Ukraine is winning, and pushing the Russians back, and both sides have conditions the other isn't willing to meet, I think a negotiated settlement is extremely unlikely and that Ukraine will oust Russia.

Bear in mind the US is spending a vert small percent (~5?) of its defense budget supporting Ukraine - there is plenty of room to step up support (notably by supplying tanks, aircraft, boats, longer range missiles). In military analyst terms spending such a small amount of budget to cripple a 'near-peer' hostile country military threat is a stonking great ROI.

It would be a mistake to expect US support to wain anytime soon, or that of Ukraine's other western (and eastern) supporters.

Although US support will need the support of the House GOP at some point in the next year.

[Woodchopper]

Given Ukraine is winning, and pushing the Russians back, and both sides have conditions the other isn't willing to meet, I think a negotiated settlement is extremely unlikely and that Ukraine will oust Russia.

Bear in mind the US is spending a vert small percent (~5?) of its defense budget supporting Ukraine - there is plenty of room to step up support (notably by supplying tanks, aircraft, boats, longer range missiles). In military analyst terms spending such a small amount of budget to cripple a 'near-peer' hostile country military threat is a stonking great ROI.

It would be a mistake to expect US support to wain anytime soon, or that of Ukraine's other western (and eastern) supporters.

A lot will depend upon how long it lasts.

We can be fairly secure of continuing US and European commitment during 2023.

However, slow production and decreasing stocks mean that it will be difficult for Ukraine's supporters to keep up the same level of supplies for years to come. This applies especially to some of the more high technology weapons, missiles and ammunition. Russia also has problems of course.

Beyond that, the US presidential election is in 2024 and we can't predict what'll happen then.

Some wars are over quickly, other wars last for decades. If the Ukraine War is of the latter type then it'll be difficult to keep supplying it indefinitely.

[TopBadger]

This is a battle of attrition, Ukraine doesn't need to be supplied indefinitely... just longer than Russia. One more year with the right weaponry might be all it takes.

I appreciate the concern over the GOP politics especially regarding Russia, but this war has to be placed in the wider context, and a US GOP congress pulling support from Ukraine is also a GOP Congress that emboldens China and it's desire to grab Taiwan.

[Woodchopper]

This is a battle of attrition, Ukraine doesn't need to be supplied indefinitely... just longer than Russia. One more year with the right weaponry might be all it takes.

I hope so.

I appreciate the concern over the GOP politics especially regarding Russia, but this war has to be placed in the wider context, and a US GOP congress pulling support from Ukraine is also a GOP Congress that emboldens China and it's desire to grab Taiwan.

Good point. Though one outcome could be that a GOP president reduces support. Ukraine gets enough to stop it losing but not enough to take back territory. Best option is that it can win in 2023.

[Herainestold]

Russia is digging in for the long haul. Opinion in Moscow is that they can outlast the west's support.
The populace is generally still supportive of the war, but enthusiasm is waning. No sign of people in the street, which is what a dictatorship fears most.

If Russia were ousted from all Ukrainian territories, they would still be able to pulverize Ukraines civilian infrastructure indefinitely. Without a negotiated settlement there is no hope for Ukraine.

[Grumble]

Russia is digging in for the long haul. Opinion in Moscow is that they can outlast the west's support.
The populace is generally still supportive of the war, but enthusiasm is waning. No sign of people in the street, which is what a dictatorship fears most.

If Russia were ousted from all Ukrainian territories, they would still be able to pulverize Ukraines civilian infrastructure indefinitely. Without a negotiated settlement there is no hope for Ukraine.

Meanwhile 30% of Russia’s budget is being spent on the war. In the real world this means they lose first.

[headshot]

No sign of people in the street, which is what a dictatorship fears most.

Gosh! What insight!

I wonder what could possibly be preventing people from protesting on the streets in a regime that controls the flow of news to the public and brutally cracks down on dissent through physical assault, torture and imprisonment?

[Herainestold]

Russia is digging in for the long haul. Opinion in Moscow is that they can outlast the west's support.
The populace is generally still supportive of the war, but enthusiasm is waning. No sign of people in the street, which is what a dictatorship fears most.

If Russia were ousted from all Ukrainian territories, they would still be able to pulverize Ukraines civilian infrastructure indefinitely. Without a negotiated settlement there is no hope for Ukraine.

Meanwhile 30% of Russia’s budget is being spent on the war. In the real world this means they lose first.

How much of Ukraine's budget is going to the war? 90%?
if the EU or America stops supporting them, they are done.

[TopBadger]

Opinion in Moscow is that they can outlast the west's support.

The opinion in Moscow was also that they'd take Kyiv in a matter of days and that the populace would welcome them with open arms.

Reality sure sucks for Putin.

[Grumble]

Russia is digging in for the long haul. Opinion in Moscow is that they can outlast the west's support.
The populace is generally still supportive of the war, but enthusiasm is waning. No sign of people in the street, which is what a dictatorship fears most.

If Russia were ousted from all Ukrainian territories, they would still be able to pulverize Ukraines civilian infrastructure indefinitely. Without a negotiated settlement there is no hope for Ukraine.

Meanwhile 30% of Russia’s budget is being spent on the war. In the real world this means they lose first.

How much of Ukraine's budget is going to the war? 90%?
if the EU or America stops supporting them, they are done.

That was true from day one. But the EU, U.K. and US are not spending anything like 30% of their budget. For all its size the Russian Federation only has a bit more than twice the population of the U.K. - and a smaller economy. They aren’t the superpower they once were.

[jimbob]

Meanwhile 30% of Russia’s budget is being spent on the war. In the real world this means they lose first.

How much of Ukraine's budget is going to the war? 90%?
if the EU or America stops supporting them, they are done.

That was true from day one. But the EU, U.K. and US are not spending anything like 30% of their budget. For all its size the Russian Federation only has a bit more than twice the population of the U.K. - and a smaller economy. They aren’t the superpower they once were.

Population 144M Vs 300M for the USSR, and the Warsaw Pact, which was probably about 100M also under Soviet rule

Defence budget about the same as the UK in 2020 but half the GDP.

And we know it was spent badly.

[jdc]

And we know it was spent badly.

Plus a fair bit of it has apparently ended up in the right hands.

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine has captured 460 Russian main battle tanks. They have also captured 92 self-propelled howitzers, 448 infantry fighting vehicles, 195 armoured fighting vehicles and 44 multiple-launch rocket systems, a report in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) said.

Russia, on the other hand, has captured 109 Ukrainian tanks, 15 self-propelled guns and 63 infantry fighting vehicles since February.

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 535_1.html

According to open-source intelligence analysts interviewed by the Wall Street Journal, Ukraine’s rapid breakthrough in Kharkiv Oblast last month helped putting hundreds of pieces of Russian armor into Ukraine's hands. This, combined with weapons taken during Russia’s retreat from Kyiv and other parts of northern Ukraine in April, has turned Russia into by far the largest supplier of heavy weapons to Ukraine. In sheer numbers, it put Moscow well ahead of the U.S. or other allies. However, Western-provided weapons are usually "more advanced and precise," according to the WSJ.

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/t ... or-ukraine

[EACLucifer]

Given Ukraine is winning, and pushing the Russians back, and both sides have conditions the other isn't willing to meet, I think a negotiated settlement is extremely unlikely and that Ukraine will oust Russia.

Bear in mind the US is spending a vert small percent (~5?) of its defense budget supporting Ukraine - there is plenty of room to step up support (notably by supplying tanks, aircraft, boats, longer range missiles). In military analyst terms spending such a small amount of budget to cripple a 'near-peer' hostile country military threat is a stonking great ROI.

It would be a mistake to expect US support to wain anytime soon, or that of Ukraine's other western (and eastern) supporters.

A lot will depend upon how long it lasts.

We can be fairly secure of continuing US and European commitment during 2023.

However, slow production and decreasing stocks mean that it will be difficult for Ukraine's supporters to keep up the same level of supplies for years to come. This applies especially to some of the more high technology weapons, missiles and ammunition. Russia also has problems of course.

Beyond that, the US presidential election is in 2024 and we can't predict what'll happen then.

Some wars are over quickly, other wars last for decades. If the Ukraine War is of the latter type then it'll be difficult to keep supplying it indefinitely.

Woodchopper, you might be a bit off on dates here. The US election is in 2024, but in November of that year, and if a Republican were to win - which doesn't actually seem very likely after some of the strongest midterm results in decades for an incumbent - the transition would not take place until 2025.

As for congress, the president still has access to significant amounts of yet unused funding that has already been allocated. There is also the possibility of more being granted during the current lame-duck session. Then there's the possibility of bypassing that via lend-lease.

And on top of that, countries like Germany that originally held back have upped their game substantially, and now represent a significant and major source of equipment. There's also the broadening of support, with Morocco apparently sending some spare parts, and more significantly, Bulgaria approving military aid.

And remember that Russia will run short of things too - it's less relevant if N-LAWs run low if the Russian tanks on the field can be defeated by the humble and ubiquitous RPG-7.

[sTeamTraen]

No sign of people in the street, which is what a dictatorship fears most.

Gosh! What insight!

I wonder what could possibly be preventing people from protesting on the streets in a regime that controls the flow of news to the public and brutally cracks down on dissent through physical assault, torture and imprisonment?

It doesn't seem to be stopping protesting in Iran, where they have public executions of dissenters. Putin's Russia is not a nice place to live, but it doesn't come close to the Soviet Union in systematic repression of dissent. We need to understand that a very large percentage of Russians support (or, at least, do not object) to the war and have not been greatly affected by it yet.

[Herainestold]

No sign of people in the street, which is what a dictatorship fears most.

Gosh! What insight!

I wonder what could possibly be preventing people from protesting on the streets in a regime that controls the flow of news to the public and brutally cracks down on dissent through physical assault, torture and imprisonment?

It doesn't seem to be stopping protesting in Iran, where they have public executions of dissenters. Putin's Russia is not a nice place to live, but it doesn't come close to the Soviet Union in systematic repression of dissent. We need to understand that a very large percentage of Russians support (or, at least, do not object) to the war and have not been greatly affected by it yet.

Sometimes it is useful to state the obvious.

Russia shows no sign of wanting to end the conflict any time soon.

Sanctions are not having a major effect on the life of Russian people.

There is minimal domestic opposition to the war.

[Woodchopper]

No sign of people in the street, which is what a dictatorship fears most.

Gosh! What insight!

I wonder what could possibly be preventing people from protesting on the streets in a regime that controls the flow of news to the public and brutally cracks down on dissent through physical assault, torture and imprisonment?

It doesn't seem to be stopping protesting in Iran, where they have public executions of dissenters. Putin's Russia is not a nice place to live, but it doesn't come close to the Soviet Union in systematic repression of dissent. We need to understand that a very large percentage of Russians support (or, at least, do not object) to the war and have not been greatly affected by it yet.

I think people may be underestimating the time it takes to build a social movement strong enough to challenge an authoritarian government. Non-violent resistance takes a lot of organization.

[TopBadger]

I think people may be underestimating the time it takes to build a social movement strong enough to challenge an authoritarian government. Non-violent resistance takes a lot of organization.

Plus the current Iranian government came out of the last revolution which is still in living memory - so Iranians have a much more recent historical precedent for internal regime change that Russians simply do not have.

[Woodchopper]

Russia faces ‘critical shortage’ of artillery shells, says UK defence chief

[…]

Adm Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of defence staff, told an audience at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) thinktank on Wednesday that the Kremlin had only planned for a short period to subjugate Ukraine, and has instead found itself embroiled in a conflict lasting nearly 10 months.

“So, let me tell Putin tonight what his own generals and ministers are probably afraid to say,” the military chief said. “Russia faces a critical shortage of artillery munitions. This means that their ability to conduct successful offensive ground operations is rapidly diminishing.

“There is no mystery as to why this is the case. Putin planned for a 30-day war, but the Russian guns have now been firing for almost 300 days. The cupboard is bare. Morally, conceptually and physically, Putin’s forces are running low.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... SApp_Other

[Woodchopper]

I appreciate the concern over the GOP politics especially regarding Russia, but this war has to be placed in the wider context, and a US GOP congress pulling support from Ukraine is also a GOP Congress that emboldens China and it's desire to grab Taiwan.

Back to this, perhaps we should be wary of aid to Ukraine being affected by a general government shutdown: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/12/politics ... index.html

[EACLucifer]

I appreciate the concern over the GOP politics especially regarding Russia, but this war has to be placed in the wider context, and a US GOP congress pulling support from Ukraine is also a GOP Congress that emboldens China and it's desire to grab Taiwan.

Back to this, perhaps we should be wary of aid to Ukraine being affected by a general government shutdown: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/12/politics ... index.html

I'm moderately confident that wouldn't affect already approved Presidential drawdown or lend lease, the latter of which is in force for the 2023 fiscal year, and should it need to be renewed for the 24 and 25 fiscal years, passed the house 417-10 and the senate 100-0.

[bolo]

From that article:

there is no real likelihood of a government shutdown, but the standard procedure laying out the steps toward bringing non-essential government functions to a halt is underway.

Nothing much to see here. Happens most years.

[Woodchopper]

High levels of European support for Ukraine. Only Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria and Slovakia below 50% for aid.https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/ebsm/api/p ... leId=84907

[EACLucifer]

Dimitry Zelenov, a Russian oligarch living in France, has died after falling down the stairs. He was fifty. One does wonder about the nature of this fall.

[TopBadger]

Dimitry Zelenov, a Russian oligarch living in France, has died after falling down the stairs. He was fifty. One does wonder about the nature of this fall.

I can only guess that his house didn't have any windows...