The Invasion of Ukraine

[Woodchopper]

Videos announcing evacuations, due to the outbreak of fighting that began on 17 Feb, were pre-recorded on 16 Feb...

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/14 ... 1483353092

They’re not even trying

[Gfamily]

Videos announcing evacuations, due to the outbreak of fighting that began on 17 Feb, were pre-recorded on 16 Feb...

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/14 ... 1483353092

They’re not even trying

Good that the truth is waiting with its boots on, ready to give the lie a head start before it before the lie starts its journey around the world.

[lpm]

Biden says Russia will head directly to Kyiv.

Wasn't it Russia vs Napoleon that ended the old strategy of winning by taking a capital? Russia said, You've got Moscow so what, and carried on instead of capitulating.

Presumably Ukraine's response is to evacuate government to the western area. Lviv is a long way away.

Paratroopers and helicopters seizing Kyiv, tanks rushing to join them? Russia would lose huge numbers of soldiers without air supremacy but Putin wouldn't give a sh.t.

Russia is making a lot of noise in the east, so will actually attack in the west via Belarus?

[monkey]

Biden says Russia will head directly to Kyiv.

Wasn't it Russia vs Napoleon that ended the old strategy of winning by taking a capital? Russia said, You've got Moscow so what, and carried on instead of capitulating.

Presumably Ukraine's response is to evacuate government to the western area. Lviv is a long way away.

Paratroopers and helicopters seizing Kyiv, tanks rushing to join them? Russia would lose huge numbers of soldiers without air supremacy but Putin wouldn't give a sh.t.

Russia is making a lot of noise in the east, so will actually attack in the west via Belarus?

You don't have to conquer a country to control it and get what you want. Look at what Russia did in Georgia. They only invaded a little bit, but looked like they could do a lot more if they wanted. I reckon Putin was quite happy with the results after the ceasefire.

[Woodchopper]

Biden says Russia will head directly to Kyiv.

Wasn't it Russia vs Napoleon that ended the old strategy of winning by taking a capital? Russia said, You've got Moscow so what, and carried on instead of capitulating.

Presumably Ukraine's response is to evacuate government to the western area. Lviv is a long way away.

Paratroopers and helicopters seizing Kyiv, tanks rushing to join them? Russia would lose huge numbers of soldiers without air supremacy but Putin wouldn't give a sh.t.

Russia is making a lot of noise in the east, so will actually attack in the west via Belarus?

Kyiv is the obvious target for the troops based in Belarus. They’re mobile and have much superior air support so they’ll get there. But I agree, it’s difficult to see what the game plan is when they get there. Putin may just assume that the Ukrainian government will beg for peace on any terms. But if they don’t I’m not sure what the Russians forces would do. The Russian troops become much more vulnerable if they’re trying to hold urban territory or are stationary while blockading Kyiv.

[Woodchopper]

- Russian civilians being herded onto buses to evacuate from the occupied eastern regions of Ukraine
- massive military exercise scheduled to end, will be converted into the attack
- Biden to make address

Ongoing Russian exercise involving strategic nuclear forces.

Putin claims that there is a genocide going on in the Donbas.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... 71916?s=21

Russian media claims Ukraine shelled Russian territory:
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1494 ... 29094?s=21

[Brightonian]

Winter Olympics start in China in just over a week.

Apparently they've just finished today. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

[Gfamily]

Winter Olympics start in China in just over a week.

Apparently they've just finished today. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

The BBC news was saying that following the completion of the recent military exercises the Russian Army were due to leave Belarus over the next few days.
It didn't say in which direction though.

[Woodchopper]

Discussions in Moscow today about recognising the separatist republics in the Donbas. But with all the areas they claim rather than what they control (which is about half the size of what’s claimed). More here: https://twitter.com/christopherjm/statu ... 53062?s=21

[Woodchopper]

Discussions in Moscow today about recognising the separatist republics in the Donbas. But with all the areas they claim rather than what they control (which is about half the size of what’s claimed). More here: https://twitter.com/christopherjm/statu ... 53062?s=21

More on what seems to have been a remarkable meeting: https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status ... 66849?s=21

[lpm]

Putin declares the two provinces independent.

Either the west buckles overnight or invasion tomorrow?

The Russian Black Sea fleet has sailed. The tanks in Belarus have left their positions and headed southwards.

- the correct military response would be for Ukraine to go for a surprise first strike now. Appearances shouldn't override the death of citizens.
- the correct response from the west would be punitive sanctions now. Why bother waiting till tomorrow? Make Putin hesitate now.

[lpm]

Or maybe Putin pretends this declaration is real, backs off, and claims victory within Russia? Bit of propaganda saying they are now independent, ignoring the fact that only parts are under Russian little green men control?

[lpm]

Putin: "It's all Lenin's fault. He invented Ukraine and it doesn't really exist."

[lpm]

Putin: "Russia was robbed".

And we're gonna get our land back?

[Woodchopper]

It’s still impossible to know how far Putin is going to take it. His speech and the fake pretexts seem to point to a large scale attack against Ukraine.

But perhaps the game plan is just to formalise what has been the situation on the ground since 2014 - Russian troops backing the separatists. If so Putin might assume that the EU and US will be so relieved that they’ll do nothing more than add a few more mild economic sanctions.

[bob sterman]

It’s still impossible to know how far Putin is going to take it. His speech and the fake pretexts seem to point to a large scale attack against Ukraine.

But perhaps the game plan is just to formalise what has been the situation on the ground since 2014 - Russian troops backing the separatists. If so Putin might assume that the EU and US will be so relieved that they’ll do nothing more than add a few more mild economic sanctions.

Everything would seem to point to a full-scale invasion - with these breakaway republics simply providing the pretext.

[monkey]

“Peacekeeping operations”

[Bird on a Fire]

It’s still impossible to know how far Putin is going to take it. His speech and the fake pretexts seem to point to a large scale attack against Ukraine.

But perhaps the game plan is just to formalise what has been the situation on the ground since 2014 - Russian troops backing the separatists. If so Putin might assume that the EU and US will be so relieved that they’ll do nothing more than add a few more mild economic sanctions.

Everything would seem to point to a full-scale invasion - with these breakaway republics simply providing the pretext.

Doing the opposite of what everything points to is kind of on brand for Putin, though.

The West has been amazingly slow with sanctions. I'm beginning to suspect they might like cheap gas and money-laundering profits more than they care about Ukraine.

[lpm]

1) Putin sends troops into the areas already controlled by his little green men troops - Ukraine does not engage

2) Putin sends in forces to seize the rest of the two provinces not currently under his control - ie attacks Ukraine forces in those areas. Ukraine has to engage

3) Putin invades Ukraine outside the two provinces - total war

[lpm]

It’s still impossible to know how far Putin is going to take it. His speech and the fake pretexts seem to point to a large scale attack against Ukraine.

But perhaps the game plan is just to formalise what has been the situation on the ground since 2014 - Russian troops backing the separatists. If so Putin might assume that the EU and US will be so relieved that they’ll do nothing more than add a few more mild economic sanctions.

Everything would seem to point to a full-scale invasion - with these breakaway republics simply providing the pretext.

To be precise, there are no breakaway republics. About a third of Donetsk and a third of Luhansk are controlled by "separatists", ie Russian backed forces with Russian "volunteers".

Putin is claiming the entire provinces, not just the parts already under control. The Ukrainian army is there in force along the "ceasefire" lines.

[jimbob]

1) Putin sends troops into the areas already controlled by his little green men troops - Ukraine does not engage

2) Putin sends in forces to seize the rest of the two provinces not currently under his control - ie attacks Ukraine forces in those areas. Ukraine has to engage

3) Putin invades Ukraine outside the two provinces - total war

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... dApp_Other

Salami tactics

[Woodchopper]

1) Putin sends troops into the areas already controlled by his little green men troops - Ukraine does not engage

2) Putin sends in forces to seize the rest of the two provinces not currently under his control - ie attacks Ukraine forces in those areas. Ukraine has to engage

3) Putin invades Ukraine outside the two provinces - total war

That’s one game plan.

The thing is. He could probably get away with 1) now, whereas he couldn’t have six months ago.

But maybe I’m hoping too much that Putin is a rational actor.

[lpm]

It's not clear what the correct translation of Putin's words would mean. Russia has always stated the entire provinces are part of Mother Russia. But the announcement seems to only refer to the portions already under control.

Formalizing de facto ownership isn't much of a gain for Putin compared to the losses from sanctions. He must be aiming for more than that?

[jimbob]

1) Putin sends troops into the areas already controlled by his little green men troops - Ukraine does not engage

2) Putin sends in forces to seize the rest of the two provinces not currently under his control - ie attacks Ukraine forces in those areas. Ukraine has to engage

3) Putin invades Ukraine outside the two provinces - total war

That’s one game plan.

The thing is. He could probably get away with 1) now, whereas he couldn’t have six months ago.

But maybe I’m hoping too much that Putin is a rational actor.

Hence my comments about salami tactics

[Woodchopper]

A description of how an invasion might happen: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... ck-and-awe

tl;dr it goes badly for Ukraine