The Invasion of Ukraine

[JQH]

Possibly holding on to prevent muscle tremors/spasms. Parkinsons?

There's other video out on teh interwebs of Putin having what look like involuntary movements his arms or legs. I don't think there is much point trying to diagnose him though. Could be due to many things.

And approximately none of them will have any direct effect on his behaviour.

This. ^^^

I got a little irate a while back when a member of this forum posted something to the effect that Putin has Parkinsons and somehow this explained everything. It doesn't - and Invade Your Neighbour is not a known side effect of any drug used to treat the condition.

[jimbob]

Video on the long term situation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ptG1IxZ08

[Herainestold]

Putin looks fairly healthy for a 70 year old with major stress in his life.
Most of these obsessive analyses of his health are just wishful thinking.

He will be around for a few more years as the unchallenged head of an Imperialistic Russia.

The question is, "How do you deal with such a person and how can you encourage him to the bargaining table?

[Grumble]

Putin looks fairly healthy for a 70 year old with major stress in his life.
Most of these obsessive analyses of his health are just wishful thinking.

He will be around for a few more years as the unchallenged head of an Imperialistic Russia.

The question is, "How do you deal with such a person and how can you encourage him to the bargaining table?

Make sure it has nice handles on it?

[jimbob]

Putin looks fairly healthy for a 70 year old with major stress in his life.
Most of these obsessive analyses of his health are just wishful thinking.

He will be around for a few more years as the unchallenged head of an Imperialistic Russia.

The question is, "How do you deal with such a person and how can you encourage him to the bargaining table?

Really?

Putin doesn't only need to be on top of things, he also needs to be able to intimidate his lieutenants so they feel it is too risky to threaten him.

He's turned on several for doing what all the rest will have done as well, namely siphon off their budgets for personal use and failing to remove corruption below them... which they cannot anyway, now.

So they all know they are at the same risk, so he's tilted the equation towards action. I still think he's got about a 2/3 chance of not getting deposed, but public demonstrations of weakness, coupled with his bad choices, showing a bad judgement, have weakened him a lot.

[Herainestold]

The Russian police state is stronger and more repressive now than at any time since the Soviet Era. Opposition leaders are dead or in prison.
A cowed population is not protesting any more.
Putin is secure as the supreme leader. He may be angry and vengeful but there is no effective way to oppose him.

The war is not going his way, but Russia has enough bombs and missiles to reduce Ukraine to rubble.

[Bird on a Fire]

Putin looks fairly healthy for a 70 year old with major stress in his life.
Most of these obsessive analyses of his health are just wishful thinking.

He will be around for a few more years as the unchallenged head of an Imperialistic Russia.

The question is, "How do you deal with such a person and how can you encourage him to the bargaining table?

Make sure it has nice handles on it?

Hahahaha

[Imrael]

I remember a lot of similar speculation about Trumps health at certain points. Slightly dark wishful thinking I suspect. (And remember that Hitler in declining health didnt get notably less dangerous)

[Martin Y]

I do get pangs of "be careful what you wish for" when people predict Putin's demise. I'm not saying his replacement is *likely* to be worse, only that it might be rash to assume things can't get worse.

With no obvious replacement waiting in the wings, it's hard to tell. A leap out of the metaphorical frying pan might not solve all problems.

[Woodchopper]

I do get pangs of "be careful what you wish for" when people predict Putin's demise. I'm not saying his replacement is *likely* to be worse, only that it might be rash to assume things can't get worse.

With no obvious replacement waiting in the wings, it's hard to tell. A leap out of the metaphorical frying pan might not solve all problems.

Yes. IMHO the only ones who would be able to depose Putin in a coup are the army. But a Moscow Junta doesn’t inspire confidence for a future of peace and democracy.

[Herainestold]

I remember a lot of similar speculation about Trumps health at certain points. Slightly dark wishful thinking I suspect. (And remember that Hitler in declining health didnt get notably less dangerous)

Truly evil people are usually long lived. Its in the genes.

[headshot]

I remember a lot of similar speculation about Trumps health at certain points. Slightly dark wishful thinking I suspect. (And remember that Hitler in declining health didnt get notably less dangerous)

Truly evil people are usually long lived. Its in the genes.

I think you might be confusing correlation with causation.

[TopBadger]

I do get pangs of "be careful what you wish for" when people predict Putin's demise. I'm not saying his replacement is *likely* to be worse, only that it might be rash to assume things can't get worse.

With no obvious replacement waiting in the wings, it's hard to tell. A leap out of the metaphorical frying pan might not solve all problems.

Only three outcomes... a replacement is worse, better, or about the same. Therefore, all things being equal, only a 1 in 3 chance Putin's replacement will be better.

[dyqik]

I remember a lot of similar speculation about Trumps health at certain points. Slightly dark wishful thinking I suspect. (And remember that Hitler in declining health didnt get notably less dangerous)

Truly evil people are usually long lived. Its in the genes.

I think you might be confusing correlation with causation.

And survivorship bias

[Woodchopper]

Interesting article on Russian opinion: https://tldrussia.substack.com/p/the-ca ... dium=email

[jimbob]

Interesting article on Russian opinion: https://tldrussia.substack.com/p/the-ca ... dium=email

It is indeed, thanks

[EACLucifer]

I've seen more than a few references now to Poland's disgraceful anti-choice laws making it very difficult if not impossible for war rape survivor refugees to access abortion.

[EACLucifer]

Developments in the Russian occupied Moldovan province of Transnistria;

Someone shot RPGs at the ministry of state security. Could be someone unhappy with Russian presence, could be false flag to excuse involving Transnistria/occupation forces there.

Two very powerful AM Radio transmitters in Transnistria had been used by Russia to broadcast propaganda into Ukraine (and everywhere else in the region, of course). Past tense is appropriate as they have both been exploded.

It is worth noting that the Russian forces in Transnistria are neither large nor well equipped, effectively one slightly decrepid BTG, and whether its really at its nominal strength is not clear.

[monkey]

Unconfirmed reports that Russia has cut off Poland's gas - clicky

[Woodchopper]

Article on the extent of intelligence sharing by the US: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nation ... -rcna26015

Helps explain why the Ukrainian airforce survived

[Woodchopper]

Unconfirmed reports that Russia has cut off Poland's gas - clicky

Also that they’ll cut off supplies to Bulgaria: https://twitter.com/afp/status/15190357 ... lbOHQo9zWA

[bob sterman]

Unconfirmed reports that Russia has cut off Poland's gas - clicky

Also that they’ll cut off supplies to Bulgaria: https://twitter.com/afp/status/15190357 ... lbOHQo9zWA

Very clever! Waiting until spring to maximize the leverage to be gained by cutting off gas supplies ... errrr

[jdc]

The Russians brought their own cellphones into Ukraine. When the Ukrainians figured this out, they cut off Russian phone numbers from the Ukrainian network — so the Russian phones stopped working.

Russian troops then began seizing cellphones from Ukrainian civilians, according to Ukraine's State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection.

"We call on Ukrainians whose mobile phones were taken away by representatives of enemy troops to inform the operator as soon as possible," the Ukrainian agency said in a statement last month.

Ukrainian civilians have complied, and this let the Ukrainian government know which phones were stolen by the Russians — and effectively became listening devices for the Ukrainians.

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/26/10946563 ... 1019143573

[Herainestold]

Russia’s Investigative Committee are investigating reports that the British SAS were “deployed to the settlement of Lviv” Western Ukraine, which could spark conflict between Vladimir Putin and NATO.

The Russian media are reporting that around 20 SAS troops were deployed to eastern Ukraine and saying they are “sabotage experts” and are training Ukraine forces in a country which is not part of NATO.

The RIA have reported that the British government have deployed 20 guerilla warfare experts to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and referenced AFU sources.

Putin has previously warned the world not to get in his way with the war in Ukraine because if any NATO country places any of their troops on Ukrainian soil there will be significant repercussions.

The British Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Defence Minister Ben Wallace have both previously stated that they will not put troops on the ground in Ukraine.

This is frightening. Another step closer to nuclear war. Putin is just itching to push the button.

https://londonlovesbusiness.com/russia- ... with-nato/

[jimbob]

Russia’s Investigative Committee are investigating reports that the British SAS were “deployed to the settlement of Lviv” Western Ukraine, which could spark conflict between Vladimir Putin and NATO.

The Russian media are reporting that around 20 SAS troops were deployed to eastern Ukraine and saying they are “sabotage experts” and are training Ukraine forces in a country which is not part of NATO.

The RIA have reported that the British government have deployed 20 guerilla warfare experts to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and referenced AFU sources.

Putin has previously warned the world not to get in his way with the war in Ukraine because if any NATO country places any of their troops on Ukrainian soil there will be significant repercussions.

The British Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Defence Minister Ben Wallace have both previously stated that they will not put troops on the ground in Ukraine.

This is frightening. Another step closer to nuclear war. Putin is just itching to push the button.

https://londonlovesbusiness.com/russia- ... with-nato/

no he isn't.

He could push the button if he wanted with no excuse.

Just as he invaded with no excuse