The Invasion of Ukraine

[TopBadger]

And if anyone is still stupid enough to believe that this is a NATO proxy war or something, just consider how much NATO is holding back - modern tanks, IFVs, aircraft and long-range munitions, for example.

I think it's fair to say that NATO are trying to do the minimum to allow Ukraine to win in a conventional sense - for many reasons*. It seems certain to me they could vastly accelerate Ukraine's win here if they chose to.

For my part I'd like to see them hand over more air defenses so Russian air attacks fail to cripple infrastructure, and longer range weapons to the degree that no Russian on Ukrainian soil is in a safe area.

* such as:
- Not spending too much money
- Letting Russia bleed slowly in the hope of favorable regime change
- Not depleting themselves of arms too quickly
- So Ukraine is mainly responsible for inflicting defeat on Russia / avoid being labelled as active participants

[Formerly AvP]

It's been a few months since we contributed to Ukraine. What's the best way to contribute to either military or civilian charities?

[Brightonian]

Ukraine suffered a comms outage when 1,300 SpaceX satellite units went offline over funding issues

[Woodchopper]

Information on the Kerch Bridge
https://twitter.com/am_misfit/status/15 ... DedweJol0g
Don’t know the source though.

https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status ... DedweJol0g

[EACLucifer]

Russian looting from Kherson now includes an excavator, a small "train" thing used to entertain small children, and almost all the animals from the zoo.

Presumably they've run out of ambulances and fire engines to steal.

[bjn]

There seems to be some high level objections in Iran to their supplying weapons to Russia and the country’s limited criticism of the invasion itself. Hopefully something comes from it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -by-russia

[Woodchopper]

Looks like Russia is digging trenches in northern Crimea. Could be that they are nervous about holding the left bank of the Dnipro. Which could be so if they are having the logistics problems we think they are.
https://twitter.com/coupsure/status/159 ... 1ITVB7Qdxw

[EACLucifer]

Looks like Russia is digging trenches in northern Crimea. Could be that they are nervous about holding the left bank of the Dnipro. Which could be so if they are having the logistics problems we think they are.
https://twitter.com/coupsure/status/159 ... 1ITVB7Qdxw

The thing about Crimea is that if Ukraine can get a toehold, Russia will find it hard to defend. So they will really want to stop Ukraine getting a toehold. There's four routes in from the north - two via the Isthmus of Perekop, one via Chonggar - which involves bridges - and one via Henichesk, that runs all the way along a narrow bar between the Sea of Azov and a lagoon, and is very exposed.

But once in, it's not easy country for defence.

Ukraine's best bet may be to try and achieve fire superiority and slowly render these defences uninhabitable, though as always, hitting logistics is a very efficient way to use force.

[lpm]

Russia will negotiate before that, to trade everything else for Crimea. It will be hard for Ukraine to keep a war going, once the world wants an end to it all.

[Herainestold]

Russia will negotiate before that, to trade everything else for Crimea. It will be hard for Ukraine to keep a war going, once the world wants an end to it all.

Ukraine will have to settle for the current front line as their new border.
With luck they can rebuild their energy infrastructure and not freeze/starve to death this winter.

[temptar]

Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

[TopBadger]

Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

You need to stop posting... in fact we all do... because we all died in a nuclear blast months ago... remember?

[shpalman]

Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

You need to stop posting... in fact we all do... because we all died in a nuclear blast months ago... remember?

I don't remember that because I was already dead from catching covid while going out dancing.

[EACLucifer]

Russia annexed Kherson.

Lots of people had hysterics about the possibility of nuclear weapon use.

Russia is now fleeing from Kherson, with the armed forces of Ukraine snapping at their heels.

And there's not a hint of nuclear weapons, or any mention of their use.

So stop falling for the hysteria. Because it's not a sensible response to events. It's someone writes an article about it and everyone panics and gives them lots of internet traffic, and then lots of other journos write articles because they need to have an article about it too.

Ignore the nonsense. It would be best if western governments were to do so do, and adopt an "I don't think you have the facilities for that, big man" approach to any Russian threats while arming Ukraine to the hilt with what they need to operate effectively on the frontlines, and strike not just into Russia's operational depth, but their strategic depth.

[Herainestold]

I cant see how Ukraine is going to occupy Kherson if the Russians are just across the river lobbing shells into the city 24/7.

[headshot]

I can’t see how Russia can set up a defensive line to shell Kherson if the Ukrainians are just across the river lobbing shells into the their positions 24/7.

[EACLucifer]

I can’t see how Russia can set up a defensive line to shell Kherson if the Ukrainians are just across the river lobbing shells into the their positions 24/7.

And these days the Ukrainians are the ones with an advantage in an artillery duel; they don't have so many tubes, but it's rounds on target that count, not rounds fired, and they've got quite a lot of more accurate pieces now, better C3I, and access to munitions like the M982 guided shell, the SMArt155 shell, which releases two guided munitions to hunt for targets, and the M31 rocket that lets them engage Russian artillery units from well beyond the range of return fire.

That said, it's going to be a long, long time before life gets back to normal in Kherson city. Brace yourself for what will be uncovered - in the much smaller settlement of Izium they found hundreds of bodies - including those that had been hanged, murdered children, and men who had been castrated - and all the testimony we have seen suggests Kherson was as bad or worse. And then remind yourself why not an inch of Ukraine - not a Ukrainian person's home - should be left under Russian occupation.

[EACLucifer]

The Kherson regional administration building has gained a Ukrainian flag. It's not clear if that's Ukrainian troops that put it there, or a brave Ukrainian in Kherson - and I do mean brave. There's reports of the Russians dragging a woman into the streets and hanging her for saying her town was Ukrainian recently, and back near the start of the war - the real start of the war - Russian invaders and their proxies murdered a teenage boy for wearing blue and yellow.

DefMon3 - one of the better frontline trackers - reckoned twelve hours ago that a comparison of rumours and proper confirmations suggested we were probably getting news about 12-24 hours late, and that makes sense to me. Meanwhile, rumours were talking of Ukrainian troops reaching Kherson city last night. We'll see, but for those that don't follow the details, it does appear that Russia has had a very serious - possibly decisive - defeat inflicted on it by the armed forces of Ukraine in right-bank Kherson.

[Imrael]

Several twitter feeds I normally trush(mostly) seem to be confirming this.

[EACLucifer]

Various pieces of footage starting to emerge of Ukrainian troops entering and in Kherson city. Over the coming days, we will see what happened regarding the retreat/rout of Russian forces, and what happened with their equipment.

We will also see what the Russians were doing there. There were many reports of torture chambers and extrajudicial executions during the occupation of Kherson. It's going to be bad. It is, at least, for the surviving people of Kherson, over, but there is much to rebuild and the trauma will endure.

The political ramifications will be huge. More than any event so far in the war, it will shake the foundations of Putin's regime. It may not crumble yet, but it is weakening. And in the west, it will prove beyond doubt that Ukraine can win on the battlefield, on an operational and strategic scale. This isn't just harassing the occupiers by shooting NLAWs at them, this is full on, combined arms warfare with clever and effective strategic planning to liberate a large area of well defended occupied territory. This will hopefully see an increase in military aid as nations look to back the winning horse.

[EACLucifer]

Several twitter feeds I normally trush(mostly) seem to be confirming this.

They are definitely in the city



Geolocated here



ETA: Ukrainian troops were also seen restoring the flag to the General Directorate of the National Police in the centre of Kherson, a very easy geolocation, here



Credit for images and geolocation goes to Special Kherson Cat, @bayraktar_1love

[Woodchopper]

Right in the centre of Kherson: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/159 ... UvMBnEeIcA

[EACLucifer]

Right in the centre of Kherson: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/159 ... UvMBnEeIcA

Footage of the same location with Ukrainian troops present, and the crowd chanting their support for them.

[Herainestold]

If I was the Russians I'd be shelling the centre of Kherson right now. Why aren't they?
I still think it could be a trap.

[EACLucifer]

If I was the Russians I'd be shelling the centre of Kherson right now. Why aren't they?
I still think it could be a trap.

Because if they do, Ukraine will return fire with the most feared weapon in their inventory (pictured)

Schweinokaras launcher.jpg (89.5 KiB) Viewed 499 times