The Invasion of Ukraine

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jimbob
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Feb 03, 2023 7:30 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 5:06 pm
I am wondering if Russia has some new weapons system, maybe from Iran or North Korea, that they are going to use in the coming offensive. Something is giving them confidence that they can defeat Ukraine armed with NATO weapons.

Let's assume that Iran has somethings beyond the drones and missiles it's already sent. Why would they give them to a military that's demonstrated incompetence for use in a war where their capabilities and weaknesses will be highlighted and the devices themselves would probably be captured and subsequently examined by the US (amongst other nations)?

Also, the DPRK weapons are their own developments of Soviet weapon systems that weren't the most modern when they were supplied (or Chinese copies).
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bob sterman » Fri Feb 03, 2023 7:34 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 5:06 pm
I am wondering if Russia has some new weapons system, maybe from Iran or North Korea, that they are going to use in the coming offensive. Something is giving them confidence that they can defeat Ukraine armed with NATO weapons.
You're right!! They've got balloons! And all the Ukranian tank crews driving Leopards, Challengers and Abrams are going to get out and gaze up at the sky and say "look at the pretty balloons" which will then pop and millions of particles of special Soviet glitter will float down into the eyes of the tank crews making them water so it's difficult for them to see where they are going. And all the tank crews will fall to their knees marvelling at this technology - and will simultaneously say "Herainestold was right - we should have worn full face masks forever - we'd better get some Sinopharm shots right away".

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:36 am

jimbob wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 7:30 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 5:06 pm
I am wondering if Russia has some new weapons system, maybe from Iran or North Korea, that they are going to use in the coming offensive. Something is giving them confidence that they can defeat Ukraine armed with NATO weapons.

Let's assume that Iran has somethings beyond the drones and missiles it's already sent. Why would they give them to a military that's demonstrated incompetence for use in a war where their capabilities and weaknesses will be highlighted and the devices themselves would probably be captured and subsequently examined by the US (amongst other nations)?

Also, the DPRK weapons are their own developments of Soviet weapon systems that weren't the most modern when they were supplied (or Chinese copies).
The Russians go for quantity over quality, look at their assault on Bakhmut. Large quantities of Iranian or DPRK munitions could make the difference
Masking forever
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Feb 04, 2023 1:27 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:36 am
jimbob wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 7:30 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 5:06 pm
I am wondering if Russia has some new weapons system, maybe from Iran or North Korea, that they are going to use in the coming offensive. Something is giving them confidence that they can defeat Ukraine armed with NATO weapons.

Let's assume that Iran has somethings beyond the drones and missiles it's already sent. Why would they give them to a military that's demonstrated incompetence for use in a war where their capabilities and weaknesses will be highlighted and the devices themselves would probably be captured and subsequently examined by the US (amongst other nations)?

Also, the DPRK weapons are their own developments of Soviet weapon systems that weren't the most modern when they were supplied (or Chinese copies).
The Russians go for quantity over quality, look at their assault on Bakhmut. Large quantities of Iranian or DPRK munitions could make the difference
They have, to date, just barely entered the city. They started assaulting it in July.

To use large quantities of munitions, they need to get them to their guns - that means they need transport. They don't have enough trucks, so they rely on rail, but the rail situation in southern Ukraine is precarious for them. They tried to improve their rail connectivity with an assault on Vuhledar to free up a route from the Donbas to southern Zaporizhzhia oblast, but so far they have utterly failed to dislodge the veteran Ukrainian defenders and loss much in the way of personnel and materiel. Then they need to store the ammo, and we all know what happened to all their depots within ~80km of the frontline once HIMARS joined the fray. GL-SDB would push that out to 150km, which means they wouldn't be able to place large depots in any part of occupied Ukraine save for southern and eastern Crimea. They also need barrels to fire them from, and those are wearing out, or getting blown up, frequently due to a single shot from an M982 "Excalibur" guided shell.

Meanwhile western aid is stepping up. Ammunition production is up. Production of CAESAR SPGs is up. There's a willingness to donate now there wasn't previously, talk of potentially three figure supplies of Leopard 1s to go with the 100+ current gen MBTs going. It's easier to destroy everything in your path with artillery when you can safely store the huge quantities of ammo you need wherever you want and the only guns with the range to really hit back are a few ageing 203mm Pions - not that it was fast even then - but with CAESARs, PzH2000s, M109A6s and soon Archers, along with counter battery radars and M270 and HIMARS GMLRS, it's a much tougher proposition.

Don't get me wrong, Russia can advance a bit, but not by throwing in special new munitions or huge quantities of new munitions, but by throwing in their own citizens as "meat", and to do so is borrowing against their own future military capability at a crippling interest rate. Getting their own men killed through frontal attack after frontal attack in the summer left their lines so sparse the Ukrainians punched right through them in September.

And meat alone will not win. The machine gun has not become any less deadly in the last hundred and five years - as anyone who follows what is going on closely would sadly know.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sat Feb 04, 2023 7:58 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:36 am
jimbob wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 7:30 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 5:06 pm
I am wondering if Russia has some new weapons system, maybe from Iran or North Korea, that they are going to use in the coming offensive. Something is giving them confidence that they can defeat Ukraine armed with NATO weapons.

Let's assume that Iran has somethings beyond the drones and missiles it's already sent. Why would they give them to a military that's demonstrated incompetence for use in a war where their capabilities and weaknesses will be highlighted and the devices themselves would probably be captured and subsequently examined by the US (amongst other nations)?

Also, the DPRK weapons are their own developments of Soviet weapon systems that weren't the most modern when they were supplied (or Chinese copies).
The Russians go for quantity over quality, look at their assault on Bakhmut. Large quantities of Iranian or DPRK munitions could make the difference
Those are not "new" weapons systems but more of the same, and in the case of the DPRK, reportedly of lower quality than old Soviet stockpiles.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Imrael » Sat Feb 04, 2023 9:44 am

Herainestold wrote:
I am wondering if Russia has some new weapons system, maybe from Iran or North Korea, that they are going to use in the coming offensive. Something is giving them confidence that they can defeat Ukraine armed with NATO weapons.
Might be more worrying that they are improving a little at using what they've got. I saw a short report somewhere about the Bakhmut assault - using conscripts to identify Ukrainian fire positions, which were then suppressed with RPG and mortar fire, and stormed. While this is cruel and barbaric, its a step more efficient than the "human wave"/WW1 model we have a mental picture of.

Also notable that logistic strikes are being reported less often, suggesting that the Russians may have adapted to that threat as well.

It was probably always too much to hope that they would remain dumb at the Tactical level indefinitely.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:26 am

jimbob wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 7:30 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 5:06 pm
I am wondering if Russia has some new weapons system, maybe from Iran or North Korea, that they are going to use in the coming offensive. Something is giving them confidence that they can defeat Ukraine armed with NATO weapons.

Let's assume that Iran has somethings beyond the drones and missiles it's already sent. Why would they give them to a military that's demonstrated incompetence for use in a war where their capabilities and weaknesses will be highlighted and the devices themselves would probably be captured and subsequently examined by the US (amongst other nations)?
Unfortunately history has many examples of dysfunctional armed forces that were propped up by allies at great expense. Most recently the Afghan National Army that collapsed shortly after the US and other forces left, and while we're on that subject the South Vietnam army also collapsed soon after the US left.
jimbob wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 7:30 pm
Also, the DPRK weapons are their own developments of Soviet weapon systems that weren't the most modern when they were supplied (or Chinese copies).
Yes, its difficult to see what types of weapon North Korea or Iran could supply that Russia doesn't have already. The two can help with additional production though, especially of ammunition.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:29 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:26 am
jimbob wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 7:30 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Fri Feb 03, 2023 5:06 pm
I am wondering if Russia has some new weapons system, maybe from Iran or North Korea, that they are going to use in the coming offensive. Something is giving them confidence that they can defeat Ukraine armed with NATO weapons.

Let's assume that Iran has somethings beyond the drones and missiles it's already sent. Why would they give them to a military that's demonstrated incompetence for use in a war where their capabilities and weaknesses will be highlighted and the devices themselves would probably be captured and subsequently examined by the US (amongst other nations)?
Unfortunately history has many examples of dysfunctional armed forces that were propped up by allies at great expense. Most recently the Afghan National Army that collapsed shortly after the US and other forces left, and while we're on that subject the South Vietnam army also collapsed soon after the US left.

Yes propping up a client state happens. But rarely does the client get new weapons systems where they are so likely to get into the hands of the patron's opponents with little to show for the loss of surprise
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Feb 04, 2023 8:48 pm

Imrael wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 9:44 am
Herainestold wrote:
I am wondering if Russia has some new weapons system, maybe from Iran or North Korea, that they are going to use in the coming offensive. Something is giving them confidence that they can defeat Ukraine armed with NATO weapons.
Might be more worrying that they are improving a little at using what they've got. I saw a short report somewhere about the Bakhmut assault - using conscripts to identify Ukrainian fire positions, which were then suppressed with RPG and mortar fire, and stormed. While this is cruel and barbaric, its a step more efficient than the "human wave"/WW1 model we have a mental picture of.
The "human waves" in Korea and for the most part WW1 weren't like the mental picture most people have either. The tactics Wagner are using are actually quite similar to the ones used by the Chinese in Korea, with multiple small teams advancing until pinned down, with follow on teams hoping to then engage the units pinning the first teams down and so on. It only works when you have a pool of absolutely desperate people, as that sort of combat is terrifying and people won't do it unless forced by threat or circumstance. In Korea, the PLA could call upon large numbers of men who'd fought for the Kuomintang and were hoping that fighting for the new regime would see them rehabilitated. In Bakhmut, Prigozhin's mob are using convicts for the role, but they aren't available in unlimited supply and to get them to go forward, they threaten them with death if they do not and brutalise them by showing them the killing - often with torture - of those who hadn't obeyed the largely suicidal orders they were given.
Also notable that logistic strikes are being reported less often, suggesting that the Russians may have adapted to that threat as well.
Yes, although it's had major consequences for them - no large forward depots has made it much harder for them to concentrate their artillery in space and also in time, and that's resulted in a much slower rate of advance, and much less shelling in general. Longer range weapons, like the now-pledged Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb, will push their remaining depots even further back, and further impede their artillery.
It was probably always too much to hope that they would remain dumb at the Tactical level indefinitely.
Recent footage from Vuhledar would suggest that, to an extent at least, they still are. Of course they've learned some, but their system is only so flexible.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Feb 05, 2023 7:45 pm

Ukraine will not use longer-range weapons pledged by the United States to hit Russian territory and will only target Russian units in occupied Ukrainian territory, Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Sunday.

[…]

"We always tell our partners officially that we will not use weapons supplied by foreign partners to fire on Russian territory. We only fire on Russian units on temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory," Reznikov told reporters at a news conference.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 023-02-05/

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Feb 05, 2023 8:00 pm

Suspected but good to have some evidence.
China is providing technology that Moscow’s military needs to prosecute the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine despite an international cordon of sanctions and export controls, according to a Wall Street Journal review of Russian customs data.

The customs records show Chinese state-owned defense companies shipping navigation equipment, jamming technology and jet-fighter parts to sanctioned Russian government-owned defense companies.

Those are but a handful of tens of thousands of shipments of dual-use goods—products that have both commercial and military applications—that Russia imported following its invasion last year, according to the customs records provided to the Journal by C4ADS, a Washington-based nonprofit that specializes in identifying national-security threats. Most of the dual-use shipments were from China, the records show.

[…]

While Russia has the capability to produce much of its basic military needs domestically, it relies heavily on imports for dual-use technology, such as semiconductors, that is essential for modern warfare.

[…]

But customs and corporate records show Russia is still able to import that technology through countries that haven’t joined the U.S.-led efforts to cut off Moscow from global markets. Many of the export-controlled products are still flowing through nations such as Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, whose governments are accused by Western officials of flouting the sanctions and controls. Turkish officials have said the sanctions are ineffective and that Ankara is playing an important role as an interlocutor with Russia. Under pressure from the U.S., Turkey has moved to halt some financial and business ties.

The U.A.E. embassy in Washington, D.C., didn’t comment.

The records reviewed by the Journal, however, show Chinese companies—both state-owned and private—as the dominant exporters of dual-use goods that U.S. officials say are of particular concern.

[…]

The Journal analyzed more than 84,000 shipments recorded by Russia’s customs office in the period after the West launched the economic pressure campaign that focused on commodities the Biden administration red-flagged as critical to the Russian military. The official Russian customs records, which C4ADS said might not include all records, detail each shipment into the country, providing dates, shippers, recipients, purchasers, addresses and product descriptions.

[…]

The Journal also identified from the records more than a dozen Russian and Chinese companies targeted by the U.S. under the Russia pressure campaign, as well as all other sanctions programs.

Industry and government officials said the data offers substantial evidence of how Russia is able to sidestep the centerpiece of the West’s response to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“Despite international scrutiny and sanctions protocols, reliable global trade data shows that Chinese state-owned defense companies continue to send military-applicable parts to sanctioned Russian defense companies,” said Naomi Garcia, an analyst at C4ADS. “These Russian companies have been recorded using these same types of parts directly in Russia’s war in Ukraine.”

To tighten the enforcement of the international pressure campaign, U.S. officials have said they are investigating the export of banned products and business dealings, trying to wrangle compliance through diplomatic outreach around the world, and have said they are preparing sanctions against new targets thought to be facilitating the Kremlin’s war.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department added to its sanction rolls nearly two dozen individuals and the companies they are allegedly using to procure weapons and other goods for Russian state defense firms.

]…]

“The allegation that China provides ‘aid’ to Russia has no factual basis, but is purely speculative and deliberately hyped up,” Liu Pengyu, China’s spokesman at its Washington embassy, told the Journal. Mr. Liu reiterated the long-held view by Beijing that China opposes what it calls unilateral sanctions that have no basis under international law.

The customs records include examples of exports of parts for the type of weapons used by Russian forces in Ukraine.

China’s state-owned defense company Poly Technologies on Aug. 31, 2022, shipped navigation equipment to Russia’s state-owned military export firm JSC Rosoboronexport for M-17 military transport helicopters. Earlier that month, Chinese electronics firm Fujian Nanan Baofeng Electronic Co. supplied to Rosoboronexport—through an Uzbek state-owned defense firm—a telescoping antenna for the RB-531BE military vehicle, which is used for communications jamming. On Oct. 24, Chinese state-owned aircraft firm AVIC International Holding Corp. shipped to AO Kret, a subsidiary of sanctioned government-owned defense giant Rostec, $1.2 million worth of parts for Su-35 jet fighters.

In the past, Russian officials have said they would adapt to the Western sanctions campaign by turning to Asia, including China.

Other foreign-government suppliers found in the customs data include China Taly Aviation Technologies Corp., a procurement unit of China’s Air Force Equipment Department. The Chinese aviation company didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Among that firm’s shipments were parts sent on Oct. 4 to Russia’s sanctioned state-owned missile-manufacturer Almaz Antey for use on the 96L6E mobile radar unit. Russia uses the radar to detect enemy jet fighter, missiles and drones as part of its S-400 antiaircraft missile system being used in Ukraine, according to arms analysts. The Russian firm didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Kret and a host of other Russian companies that contract with the government’s intelligence, military and security services also used privately held Chinese firms. Sinno Electronics, sanctioned late last year by the U.S. Treasury Department for allegedly procuring banned goods for Russia’s defense sector, was one of the most prolific exporters of dual-use goods, sending more than 1,300 shipments between April and October worth more than $2 million, according to customs data. Neither Kret nor Sinno Electronics responded to requests for comment.

Among the supplies critical to Moscow’s war efforts, U.S. officials say, are the computer chips that are used in weapons that target Ukrainian forces and infrastructure, and in electronic circuitry that makes possible satellite geolocating, radio communication, surveillance and navigation systems.

Exports of such chips and associated components were more than cut in half after the U.S. and its allies first imposed strict export restrictions, according to the customs records. But those levels quickly began to rise, and by October hit nearly $33 million, just shy of the $35 million monthly level Russia averaged since the U.S. started targeting Russia with sanctions in 2014 after Putin’s army occupied Crimea, according to the Journal’s analysis of the Russian custom records and the United Nations’ Comtrade database.

Unlike previous export-control regimes that banned the direct provision of certain dual use goods, Western authorities in February said they were targeting the entire supply chain. That means transshipments—goods produced in third countries using U.S. dual-use items, such as chips, that are then shipped to Russia—are also targeted.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-aids ... 1675466360

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Feb 08, 2023 3:00 pm

I don't really get out much these days, so if any of you run into any dickheads whining about Zelenskyy not wearing a suit to meet parliament/the PM/the king please take the opportunity to whack them with the heaviest thing that comes to hand on my behalf. Thanks in advance.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Feb 08, 2023 3:35 pm


The Joint Investigating Team announced today that they have sufficient evidence that Putin personally authorized the delivery and use of the BUK that shot down MH17, and that once he's no longer president and have immunity, he may be persecuted.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... l-7XQNxXdQ

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Wed Feb 08, 2023 4:05 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Feb 08, 2023 3:35 pm
... he may be persecuted.
Good.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Lew Dolby » Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:26 pm

prosecuted, shirley ???
WOULD CUSTOMERS PLEASE REFRAIN FROM SITTING ON THE COUNTER BY THE BACON SLICER - AS WE'RE GETTING A LITTLE BEHIND IN OUR ORDERS.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:28 pm

Lew Dolby wrote:
Wed Feb 08, 2023 5:26 pm
prosecuted, shirley ???
Either would be fine

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Feb 09, 2023 3:30 pm

Simon Jenkins has w.nked out another article on one of the four topics he ever feels like writing about. Presumably he's bored with talking sh.t about HS2 and politics, and his maths rant energy hasn't yet regenerated, so we're back with his latest Putin fellatio exercise
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Thu Feb 09, 2023 3:53 pm

Elon Musk proving he is an a..eh.le yet again. Stopping Starlink from being used for drones in the Ukraine. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -elon-musk

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Opti » Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:47 pm

You have to hand it to Musk, if there's something he can be a c.nt about - he's in.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Aitch » Thu Feb 09, 2023 5:52 pm

Well, he's consistent in his foolishness, and we know what Emerson said about that...
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds

Full quote here.
Some people call me strange.
I prefer unconventional.
But I'm willing to compromise and accept eccentric
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Feb 10, 2023 7:56 am

Kaja Kallas with an interesting suggestion on how to speed up European defence production.
My suggestion: could use mechanism similar to EU vaccine procurement. MS give funds, Commission procures, aid goes directly to #Ukraine
https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1 ... aoEt0r69ww

If it were to happen it would significantly change the relationship between the EU Commission and Member States. Something that may well be needed if there is to be a long war.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:38 am

The Russians have launched another massed missile attack. Militarily near useless, politically counterproductive, and of course targetting civilians contrary to the laws of armed conflict. Though militarily near useless, they can - and do - still kill people.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Feb 10, 2023 10:03 am

Russian missiles apparently violated Moldovan airspace - which they've done before - and also Romanian airspace.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Feb 10, 2023 3:42 pm

Russian plot to destabilise and take over Moldova detected

Detected by Ukrainian intel, and confirmed by Moldovan, apparently. There's been an uptick of threatening rhetoric against Moldova lately. The Kremlin can subvert in their usual way, but obviously they aren't in a position to send troops. There's fifteen hundred Russian troops in Moldova, of course, occupying Transnistria, but there's only so much they could do on their own and if they act, it's quite possible Ukraine would cross the border and crump them. Given the various Russian threats and missile overflights of Moldova, though, it would be a good idea to offer them formal security guarantees and assistance now, rather than after they are needed.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Feb 11, 2023 5:35 pm

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, has said it could take two years for Russia to fully control the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, two regions whose capture Moscow has stated as a key goal of the war.

In a video published on Friday with the Russian military blogger Semyon Pegov, reported by Reuters, Prigozhin said:

“As far as I understand, we need to close off the Donetsk and Luhansk republics and in principle that will suit everyone for now.”

“That could take one and a half to two years,” he said.

In September, Vladimir Putin formally annexed the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in Ukraine, along with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, in defiance of international law and condemned by UN member states as illegal.

“If we have to get to the Dnipro, then it will take about three years,” Prigozhin added, referring to a larger area that would extend to the vast Dnipro River that runs roughly north to south, bisecting Ukraine.

Prigozhin does not speak for the Russian military but his comments provide a rare insight into Russian expectations of the conflict, from the head of a group at the centre of some of its fiercest fighting.
From the Guardian liveblog.

Looks like he’s trying to manage expectations.

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