The Invasion of Ukraine

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Woodchopper
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu May 04, 2023 7:42 pm

Good interview on many subjects with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-defens ... 27563.html

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu May 04, 2023 7:46 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 9:35 am
ISW think Kremlin drone more likely to be staged: https://understandingwar.org/background ... may-3-2023
ISW are pretty uneven. Some of the analysis is good but they are prone to publishing click bait speculations.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Thu May 04, 2023 8:18 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 7:46 pm
FlammableFlower wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 9:35 am
ISW think Kremlin drone more likely to be staged: https://understandingwar.org/background ... may-3-2023
ISW are pretty uneven. Some of the analysis is good but they are prone to publishing click bait speculations.
Yes.

I think we can be sure it wasn't a serious attempt to kill Putin.

Beyond that, the question of who benefits is difficult. It probably makes the Russian MOD look weak. But then there are others than Ukraine that want to do that. Some of whom would want to blame Ukraine
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Grumble » Thu May 04, 2023 10:13 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 7:42 pm
Good interview on many subjects with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-defens ... 27563.html
It struck me reading that interview that the prewar population of Bakhmut was about 71,000. That’s about the same size as Macclesfield, to use a reference local to me. The amount of effort spent to try to capture Macclesfield is staggering.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gfamily » Thu May 04, 2023 10:52 pm

Grumble wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 10:13 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 7:42 pm
Good interview on many subjects with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-defens ... 27563.html
It struck me reading that interview that the prewar population of Bakhmut was about 71,000. That’s about the same size as Macclesfield, to use a reference local to me. The amount of effort spent to try to capture Macclesfield is staggering.
I don't think it works to make comparisons of 'significance' based on populations in different countries. Our town in NW England has a population of about 70K but isn't important enough to even have a Tesco.

The most significant town to our holiday home in France (it's a locally significant town - an administrative centre) has a population of less than 3500. Our three major local cities have populations of 47,000, 87,000 and 134,000.

I'd expect cities and towns in Ukraine to be more scaled in line with France than England
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Grumble » Fri May 05, 2023 4:49 am

Gfamily wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 10:52 pm
Grumble wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 10:13 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 7:42 pm
Good interview on many subjects with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-defens ... 27563.html
It struck me reading that interview that the prewar population of Bakhmut was about 71,000. That’s about the same size as Macclesfield, to use a reference local to me. The amount of effort spent to try to capture Macclesfield is staggering.
I don't think it works to make comparisons of 'significance' based on populations in different countries. Our town in NW England has a population of about 70K but isn't important enough to even have a Tesco.

The most significant town to our holiday home in France (it's a locally significant town - an administrative centre) has a population of less than 3500. Our three major local cities have populations of 47,000, 87,000 and 134,000.

I'd expect cities and towns in Ukraine to be more scaled in line with France than England
Maybe Bahkmut is more significant, but size wise they would be about the same.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 05, 2023 5:05 am

Aside from symbolism, the significance of Bakhmut is that it’s on several roads and out on the steppe a city is much more defensible than the surrounding countryside.

There’s now nothing else there worth sacrificing lives. It’s all been destroyed.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 05, 2023 5:20 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 05, 2023 5:05 am
Aside from symbolism, the significance of Bakhmut is that it’s on several roads and out on the steppe a city is much more defensible than the surrounding countryside.

There’s now nothing else there worth sacrificing lives. It’s all been destroyed.
The one thing there worth defending is fighting there rather than the same happening in Kramatorsk or Sloviansk.

Also that part of the Donbas is rolling hills more than open steppe, though the point stands that cities provide more defensible terrain than almost anywhere else.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 05, 2023 5:48 am

Gfamily wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 10:52 pm
Grumble wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 10:13 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 7:42 pm
Good interview on many subjects with Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.
https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-defens ... 27563.html
It struck me reading that interview that the prewar population of Bakhmut was about 71,000. That’s about the same size as Macclesfield, to use a reference local to me. The amount of effort spent to try to capture Macclesfield is staggering.
I don't think it works to make comparisons of 'significance' based on populations in different countries. Our town in NW England has a population of about 70K but isn't important enough to even have a Tesco.

The most significant town to our holiday home in France (it's a locally significant town - an administrative centre) has a population of less than 3500. Our three major local cities have populations of 47,000, 87,000 and 134,000.

I'd expect cities and towns in Ukraine to be more scaled in line with France than England
Bakhmut is commonly called the 56th biggest town in Ukraine. Going by Wikipedia, it's the 58th. The UK equivalents by rank would be Blackburn and Grimsby. By absolute size, though, those are both about twice the size of Bakhmut.

The following settlements were liberated during the ongoing Battle of Bakhmut;

Kupiansk, three eighths the size of Bakhmut
Izium, two thirds the size of Bakhmut
Vovchansk, about a quarter the size of Bakhmut
Lyman, a bit over a quarter the size of Bakhmut
Snihurivka, about a sixth the size of Bakhmut
Beryslav, about a sixth the size of Bakhmut
Kherson, almost four times the size of Bakhmut

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 08, 2023 3:22 pm

Russia destroyed a Red Cross warehouse in Odesa. Not sure if deliberately targetted - Russia likes to target food supplies and other necessities for the existence of life - or due to use of missiles like the Kh22 which is hard to intercept but very inaccurate due to being a repurposed anti-shipping missile with a terminal guidance system that only really works on ships.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Thu May 11, 2023 1:35 pm

https://f24.my/9TbS
Want to boast that you fought for the homeland, but without risking your life? Welcome to OBTF Cascade, the Russian military unit that allows career politicians and their military-aged sons to play war in Ukraine – at a safe and comfortable distance from the blood being spilled on the frontline.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Thu May 11, 2023 1:56 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu May 11, 2023 1:35 pm
https://f24.my/9TbS
Want to boast that you fought for the homeland, but without risking your life? Welcome to OBTF Cascade, the Russian military unit that allows career politicians and their military-aged sons to play war in Ukraine – at a safe and comfortable distance from the blood being spilled on the frontline.
As Capt Darling said, it's a man's life in the women's auxiliary balloon corps.

While it's not even slightly surprising that Russian elites can find a safe spot well behind the lines, it's pretty hilarious that they have an entire unit established just to churn them through, providing photo ops of pretending to go and fight.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by shpalman » Sun May 14, 2023 5:24 pm

having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Sun May 14, 2023 6:25 pm

Polonium tiffin? He popping his clogs being a prelude to annexing Belarus?

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sun May 14, 2023 6:50 pm

bjn wrote:
Sun May 14, 2023 6:25 pm
Polonium tiffin? He popping his clogs being a prelude to annexing Belarus?
I was wondering about something like that
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 14, 2023 7:05 pm

bjn wrote:
Sun May 14, 2023 6:25 pm
Polonium tiffin? He popping his clogs being a prelude to annexing Belarus?
On the one hand, destabilising the situation in Belarus could go very badly for Putin and he hasn't got the troops to hold down Belarus should people demonstrate as they did last time Lukashenko stole an election.

On the other hand, is Putin aware of this? He's not exactly been making rational decisions or demonstrating awareness of Russia's limitations in decisionmaking in the last couple of years.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sun May 14, 2023 7:22 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun May 14, 2023 5:24 pm
nothing trivial I hope
https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-wee ... s-by-2030/

Leaked document reveals alleged Kremlin plan to take over Belarus by 2030
A group of U.S. and European media outlets, including the Kyiv Independent, has obtained a 17-page document allegedly detailing Russia's plans to subjugate Belarus and dismantle its independence.

The document details Russia's future steps to take full control of Belarusian political, economic, and military spheres by the end of the decade.

According to the document, by 2030, Belarus should have a single currency and tax system with Russia, and its media space must be under Russian control. The Belarusian army must comply with Russian regulations, while all key military production must be transferred from Belarus to Russia.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat May 27, 2023 4:27 am

Russia shelled a hospital in Dnipro yesterday. The weapon they did it with was probably an S-300, it's accurate enough in that role, though not especially accurate, to indicate that they were aiming at the hospital. That's also congruent with their behaviour in Syria.

They also hit a dam, the very definition of a work containing dangerous forces. Those should not be struck either.

The warcrimes continue, even when the frontline is barely moving.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 29, 2023 9:12 am

Heavy air raids against Ukrainian civilians last night and the night before, and now daytime attacks. These consist of suicide drones, as well as cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and aeroballistic missiles. Ukrainian air defences are doing their best, they really are, but the only truly effective way to stop missile attack is to make it untenable to launch the damn things.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Formerly AvP » Sun Jun 04, 2023 3:35 pm

Polish media reporting that Lukashenko is extremely ill, with bleeding from the nose and mouth, and elsewhere on his skin. Suggested that he has previously suffered from Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation. So nothing to do with his symptoms suddenly getting much worse after drinking tea with Vladimir, and absolutely no possibility that Putin might be thinking of annexing Belarus to support the war against Ukraine.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Sun Jun 04, 2023 8:00 pm

How will annexing Belarus help with invading Ukraine? It would be a total distraction and might have not a few Belarusians who might not take kindly to it. Unless Belarusians troops do the job for them, they will need to send in Russian troops to impose rule and maintain order. Where are they going to get those from?

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:43 am

bjn wrote:
Sun Jun 04, 2023 8:00 pm
How will annexing Belarus help with invading Ukraine? It would be a total distraction and might have not a few Belarusians who might not take kindly to it. Unless Belarusians troops do the job for them, they will need to send in Russian troops to impose rule and maintain order. Where are they going to get those from?
Some plans for a the integration of Belarus and Russia were leaked a few months ago: https://www.dw.com/en/russia-plans-bela ... a-64771429

The have been official plans for a union between Belarus and Russia since the late 1990s. Lukashenko was initially into the idea but cooled off when he realized that he'd be downgraded from President to a mere provincial governor. Since then he's kept Belarus close to Moscow, but not too close. Him dying might create an opening for the old plans if someone amenable were to take power (perhaps Russia has enough influence to make that happen).

But, as you write, Russia doesn't have the military means to force the issue. Given the previous demonstrations in Belarus its very likely that a union would be opposed. The leaked plans dated to 2021, so they were probably just a Putinesque fantasy.

Worst case for Belarus may be that Russia and a compliant leader in Minsk try to implement a union and the result is an insurgency in Belarus.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:43 am

bjn wrote:
Sun Jun 04, 2023 8:00 pm
How will annexing Belarus help with invading Ukraine? It would be a total distraction and might have not a few Belarusians who might not take kindly to it. Unless Belarusians troops do the job for them, they will need to send in Russian troops to impose rule and maintain order. Where are they going to get those from?
And Ukraine's now built up enough forces they can probably spare the Kastus Kalinouski regiment and other Belarusians fighting for the ZSU to go home and cause all sorts of trouble for any occupiers/collaborators.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:24 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:43 am
bjn wrote:
Sun Jun 04, 2023 8:00 pm
How will annexing Belarus help with invading Ukraine? It would be a total distraction and might have not a few Belarusians who might not take kindly to it. Unless Belarusians troops do the job for them, they will need to send in Russian troops to impose rule and maintain order. Where are they going to get those from?
And Ukraine's now built up enough forces they can probably spare the Kastus Kalinouski regiment and other Belarusians fighting for the ZSU to go home and cause all sorts of trouble for any occupiers/collaborators.
That would be a metaphor for Putin's whole adventure here. If he did nothing in spring 2022, it would have put pressure on Ukraine and not exposed his military for what it is.

And he wouldn't have another NATO country on his northern border.

Causing Belarus to move out of his control would be a continuation of that.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jun 06, 2023 7:28 am

Russians have blown the Kakhovsky Dam, which impounded one of the largest reservoirs in Europe, on one of the largest rivers in Europe, the Dnipro. This is a serious warcrime in of itself, and also risks cutting the supply of cooling water to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Powerplant at Enerhodar, risking catastrophe there.

There must be an immediate response. We must further arm Ukraine in response to this atrocity and further isolate Russia and make it extremely clear that not only is Ukrainian victory the only acceptable outcome, this is also true of Russian defeat.

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