The Invasion of Ukraine

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Martin Y
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Martin Y » Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:11 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 3:38 pm
People in Russia were better off in the post Stalin era than they are today, oligarchs excepted.
Maybe they'll be better off again in the post Putin era.

temptar
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by temptar » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:13 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 3:38 pm

People in Russia were better off in the post Stalin era than they are today, oligarchs excepted.
To be utterly blunt about it, it wouldn’t be hard to be better off post Stalin. It is an insultingly low level to beat, the Stalin era.

Also, let me suggest to you that Ukraine’s future should be determined by Ukraine and not by other greater powers or clueless twerps living in the West of which there seem to be more than a few knocking around the social media world. If they want to be a neutral buffer zone grand but it seems this did not work out for them since Russia seems congenitally unable to respect Ukrainian borders or neutrality.

The world is better off without autocratic a..holes, regardless of their political system.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:42 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:11 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 3:38 pm
People in Russia were better off in the post Stalin era than they are today, oligarchs excepted.
Maybe they'll be better off again in the post Putin era.
Or worse if Russia fragments into warring states.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster, Russian people are not.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:44 pm

temptar wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:13 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 3:38 pm

People in Russia were better off in the post Stalin era than they are today, oligarchs excepted.
To be utterly blunt about it, it wouldn’t be hard to be better off post Stalin. It is an insultingly low level to beat, the Stalin era.

Also, let me suggest to you that Ukraine’s future should be determined by Ukraine and not by other greater powers or clueless twerps living in the West of which there seem to be more than a few knocking around the social media world. If they want to be a neutral buffer zone grand but it seems this did not work out for them since Russia seems congenitally unable to respect Ukrainian borders or neutrality.

The world is better off without autocratic a..holes, regardless of their political system.
It should be decided by Ukrainians. Agreed.
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Putin is a monster, Russian people are not.

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jimbob
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:41 am

Ukraine mass burial site with 440 bodies discovered in recaptured Izium, says police chief
Volodymyr Zelenskiy likens discovery to Bucha massacre carried out by Russian forces, as officials begin forensic investigations


Ukrainian authorities have found a mass burial site of more than 440 bodies in the eastern city of Izium that was recaptured from Russian forces, a regional police chief has said.

Serhiy Bolvinov, the chief police investigator for Kharkiv region, told Sky News some of the people had been killed by shelling and airstrikes.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy likened the discovery to what happened in Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv, saying in a Thursday night video address: “Russia is leaving death behind it everywhere and must be held responsible.”

“The necessary procedures have already begun there. More information – clear, verifiable information – should be available tomorrow,” he said.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:23 am

Looks like Russia's CSTO doesn't seem to be doing much at the moment.

Armenia (member) has been attacked by Azerbaijan and there are border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (both members)
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:39 am

jimbob wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:23 am
Looks like Russia's CSTO doesn't seem to be doing much at the moment.

Armenia (member) has been attacked by Azerbaijan and there are border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (both members)
Yeah - was reading about that this morning, Armenia has invoked the mutual defense clause and so is expecting Russian support. Suggestions are it will likely either not come at all or be so scant that it won't matter if it came or not.

Russia has severely weakened itself. It's political power came almost exclusively from its military power, and now that has been shown as lacking it will find it harder to keep quarreling neighboring states in line.

Also read about Russian elites coming up with a plan to appoint a successor to Putin. These stories are not new, and I've no idea if they have the muscle to make it happen. Ultimately there are only two avenues to take from here, for Putin or his successor... back down or double down. That's why the supply of weapons to Ukraine needs to accelerate, western nations need to remove the latter as an option.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:05 am

Sounds like partisans or Ukraine special forces have killed the "LNR" chief prosecutor.

I'm guessing partisans. Based on the idea that he makes a more natural target for them
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:22 am

Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:12 am

TopBadger wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:39 am
jimbob wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:23 am
Looks like Russia's CSTO doesn't seem to be doing much at the moment.

Armenia (member) has been attacked by Azerbaijan and there are border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (both members)
Yeah - was reading about that this morning, Armenia has invoked the mutual defense clause and so is expecting Russian support. Suggestions are it will likely either not come at all or be so scant that it won't matter if it came or not.

Russia has severely weakened itself. It's political power came almost exclusively from its military power, and now that has been shown as lacking it will find it harder to keep quarreling neighboring states in line.
Up to 1500 troops to be withdrawn from Tajikistan to fight in Ukraine. Russia is losing its capacity to influence its 'near abroad'.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-troops-t ... 33791.html

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Sep 16, 2022 12:14 pm

jimbob wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 10:05 am
Sounds like partisans or Ukraine special forces have killed the "LNR" chief prosecutor.

I'm guessing partisans. Based on the idea that he makes a more natural target for them
Several other collaborators have been hit, too, in Berdyansk and Kherson.

Given that reports indicate that Kherson could well be the site of warcrimes worse than Bucha or Izyum, I don't think traitors can expect much pity from the partisans.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Fri Sep 16, 2022 12:38 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 11:12 am

Up to 1500 troops to be withdrawn from Tajikistan to fight in Ukraine. Russia is losing its capacity to influence its 'near abroad'.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-troops-t ... 33791.html
Interesting quote:
“As far as I know, the servicemen were going to be there for no more than four months to take part in the special operation in Ukraine, and that they would then return here. But they haven’t returned yet,” the man said. “It’s been said that the soldiers are on vacation now after completing their four months
On vacation... that's a nice story isn't it? More likely to be dead or wounded, and not going back.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:15 am

Apparently Wagner Group is looking for people willing to be partisans in NATO member states: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... TKM-guqyBQ

Probably won’t happen but this could be how Russia might escalate. For example bombings against civilian targets which Moscow denied involvement.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:31 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:15 am
Apparently Wagner Group is looking for people willing to be partisans in NATO member states: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... TKM-guqyBQ

Probably won’t happen but this could be how Russia might escalate. For example bombings against civilian targets which Moscow denied involvement.
Another reason to get the parties to the negotiating table.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:34 am

jimbob wrote:
Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:23 am
Looks like Russia's CSTO doesn't seem to be doing much at the moment.

Armenia (member) has been attacked by Azerbaijan and there are border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (both members)
And China is offering to help Kazakhstan protect itself. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 022-01-10/

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:44 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:15 am
Apparently Wagner Group is looking for people willing to be partisans in NATO member states: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... TKM-guqyBQ

Probably won’t happen but this could be how Russia might escalate. For example bombings against civilian targets which Moscow denied involvement.
There's a few ways to respond to this. The first is to reiterate the significance of Nato Article 5.

A second way would be to make clear that military aid to Ukraine steps up massively in such a scenario, including options that hadn't previously been on the table. Not much point self-deterring from providing them for fear of Russia sponsoring terrorism if Russia's already sponsoring terrorism.

And the third is a direct, violent response against Wagner group assets in other parts of the world. There are few more deserving recipients of such an action, and it would put Putin in a very difficult situation, as it would directly undermine the influence he gains by the employment of such vermin, and it would be hard to use it as ground to escalate further, as the whole point of Wagner group is that the Russian state pretends they aren't effectively part of the Russian military, though in practise they are.

And it should be remembered that it is not in Putin's interests to provide a gold-edged invitation to thirty countries with some of the best armed and trained militaries in the world to join the conflict as belligerents on Ukraine's side.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sat Sep 17, 2022 9:27 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:44 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:15 am
Apparently Wagner Group is looking for people willing to be partisans in NATO member states: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... TKM-guqyBQ

Probably won’t happen but this could be how Russia might escalate. For example bombings against civilian targets which Moscow denied involvement.
There's a few ways to respond to this. The first is to reiterate the significance of Nato Article 5.

A second way would be to make clear that military aid to Ukraine steps up massively in such a scenario, including options that hadn't previously been on the table. Not much point self-deterring from providing them for fear of Russia sponsoring terrorism if Russia's already sponsoring terrorism.

And the third is a direct, violent response against Wagner group assets in other parts of the world. There are few more deserving recipients of such an action, and it would put Putin in a very difficult situation, as it would directly undermine the influence he gains by the employment of such vermin, and it would be hard to use it as ground to escalate further, as the whole point of Wagner group is that the Russian state pretends they aren't effectively part of the Russian military, though in practise they are.

And it should be remembered that it is not in Putin's interests to provide a gold-edged invitation to thirty countries with some of the best armed and trained militaries in the world to join the conflict as belligerents on Ukraine's side.
The red bit, as you and I have been saying for ages, Russia has been waging undeclared, escalating, hybrid war against the West since at least 2006.

Including bombings in at least two NATO countries and WMDs in Britain
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:18 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:44 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:15 am
Apparently Wagner Group is looking for people willing to be partisans in NATO member states: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... TKM-guqyBQ

Probably won’t happen but this could be how Russia might escalate. For example bombings against civilian targets which Moscow denied involvement.
There's a few ways to respond to this. The first is to reiterate the significance of Nato Article 5.

A second way would be to make clear that military aid to Ukraine steps up massively in such a scenario, including options that hadn't previously been on the table. Not much point self-deterring from providing them for fear of Russia sponsoring terrorism if Russia's already sponsoring terrorism.

And the third is a direct, violent response against Wagner group assets in other parts of the world. There are few more deserving recipients of such an action, and it would put Putin in a very difficult situation, as it would directly undermine the influence he gains by the employment of such vermin, and it would be hard to use it as ground to escalate further, as the whole point of Wagner group is that the Russian state pretends they aren't effectively part of the Russian military, though in practise they are.

And it should be remembered that it is not in Putin's interests to provide a gold-edged invitation to thirty countries with some of the best armed and trained militaries in the world to join the conflict as belligerents on Ukraine's side.
Those are all options. It is though a problem if NATO members are unable to prove a link between a bombing and Wagner. For example, striking Wagner around the world would require the consent of the governments where they are located.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:20 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:18 am
Those are all options. It is though a problem if NATO members are unable to prove a link between a bombing and Wagner.


The point about striking Wagner is that it doesn't require the link to be proved. It's the kind of reprisals one should generally be wary of, but in this situation, Wagner PMC deserve it anyway. The key is ensuring that the strikes hit Wagner PMC and don't hit civilians. I don't think anyone would miss a few regime soldiers/IRCG/Hezbollah members in Syria that much, though.
For example, striking Wagner around the world would require the consent of the governments where they are located.
Yes, it would need to be limited to places where the US can strike without complicating relations with governments more than they already are. So Syria's viable, Mali and Sudan aren't, because though Wagner group are massacring people in Mali and murdering gold miners to steal their gold in Sudan, they are doing so in accordance with the wishes of those nation's governments.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bob sterman » Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:17 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:18 am
Those are all options. It is though a problem if NATO members are unable to prove a link between a bombing and Wagner. For example, striking Wagner around the world would require the consent of the governments where they are located.
I'm pretty sure that a certain NATO country - acting in a non-NATO capacity - doesn't always seek consent of local governments before blowing up adversaries in other countries.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:45 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:17 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:18 am
Those are all options. It is though a problem if NATO members are unable to prove a link between a bombing and Wagner. For example, striking Wagner around the world would require the consent of the governments where they are located.
I'm pretty sure that a certain NATO country - acting in a non-NATO capacity - doesn't always seek consent of local governments before blowing up adversaries in other countries.
This is true, but it certainly comes with fairly serious diplomatic repercussions that must be considered.

In addition, any such strikes need to be planned with the utmost care to avoid civilian casualties, both as an end in its own right, and to avoid diplomatic and public opinion blowback.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:03 am

Russia moves missiles from St Petersburg to Ukraine

Satellite images obtained by Yle show that Russia has been transferring anti-aircraft missiles away from St Petersburg,
https://yle.fi/news/3-12626182

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:37 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:03 am
Russia moves missiles from St Petersburg to Ukraine

Satellite images obtained by Yle show that Russia has been transferring anti-aircraft missiles away from St Petersburg,
https://yle.fi/news/3-12626182
Mostly S-300s, which could be about filling in for losses - HARM anti-radiation missiles have taken a toll on Russian air defences - but could also be intended for a ground-attack role. S-300s have a secondary ground-attack capability, and while they have long range in that role, they lack accuracy. Notoriously, they have been used for the indiscriminate bombardment of the city of Mykolaiv.

The fact that it appears some S-400s are being pulled from the Ingrian region should be the last of many nails in the coffin of the idea that Russia's interested in opening up a second front against Finland or the Baltic states.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Sep 18, 2022 11:38 am

Thread on injured Ukrainians who are evacuated to EU member states for medical treatment: https://twitter.com/manta_greg/status/1 ... 2AmkVK0stw

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TimW » Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:03 pm


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