The Invasion of Ukraine

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EACLucifer
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:47 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:40 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:04 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:38 pm
Scaremongering and Russian propaganda snipped
Russia's not going to invite NATO to destroy them, not with conventional or nuclear weapons. Stop reprodusing nonsense.

And f.ck off, bootlicking tankie worm.

Lawrence Freedman is a Russian propagandist? Who knew?
Gurulyov is. I suspect Freedman's article - which I'll read if I get the time but things are difficult right now - put's Gurulyov's words in context rather better than you did.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:10 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:47 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:40 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:04 pm


Russia's not going to invite NATO to destroy them, not with conventional or nuclear weapons. Stop reprodusing nonsense.

And f.ck off, bootlicking tankie worm.

Lawrence Freedman is a Russian propagandist? Who knew?
Gurulyov is. I suspect Freedman's article - which I'll read if I get the time but things are difficult right now - put's Gurulyov's words in context rather better than you did.
Okay. I see your point.
I was trying to show that Freedman is taking the nuke threat seriously.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:03 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:07 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:57 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:48 pm


I'd add that all hell didn't break loose when Ukrainian helicopters conducted a treetop level raid on fuel storage in Belgorod, Belgorod Oblast, Russian Federation, so...
I’m assuming that the rumoured annexation and mobilisation are connected. The point isn’t to threaten Ukraine but to relieve Russia’s manpower shortages in the Donbas.
That makes sense, yes. It's still not going to do much to improve their military situation. Sadly, it could well get a bunch of people with no desire to go off and invade anyone getting killed, just the same way as it has happened to men in the longer-term occupied areas.
Certainly.

Here’s a long ISW thread on the the mobilisation, probable annexation and other recent developments.

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/statu ... _NfGus5sGA

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:11 am

Partial Mobilization announced by Putin... whether it amounts to much, who knows.

Either way we need to step up support to Ukraine...
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by lpm » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:54 am

5,000 reservists + extending contracts indefinitely of existing troops.

Doesn't move the dial.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TimW » Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:08 am

Herainestold wrote:
Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:10 pm
Okay. I see your point.
I was trying to show that Freedman is taking the nuke threat seriously.
Discussing the threat isn't quite the same as "taking it seriously".
Rather than fretting about some future craziness, efforts might more usefully be put into preparing for the moment when Putin realises that he has lost and may seek to hold on to Crimea.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:13 am

lpm wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:54 am
5,000 reservists + extending contracts indefinitely of existing troops.

Doesn't move the dial.
Source for the 5000 figure? I'd expect Russia to have a lot more reservists to call upon. If staffing levels are to believed 5000 won't even halve the gaps in manpower within units.

Also worth noting that these reservists didn't heed the call to fight when big bonuses were offered... so their motivation will be zero. In their position I'd prefer the jail time - at least I'll be alive in 15 years (or after Putin in removed and this law reversed - which ever comes first).

This announcement doesn't move the military dial... might move the political dial, albeit backwards.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:34 am

Key point is the indefinitely extending contracts. A lot of Russian troops are on quite short contracts. Indeed, a lot are already past the end of their contract term and deeply unhappy about being forced to stay even before this decree.

To create their so-called third army corps they lured people in with three to six month contracts. Now they've made them indefinite. I can't see that going well with a formation mostly known for drunkenness, crimes against women wherever they are garrisoned, and collapsing at the first sign of Ukrainians in Kharkiv.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:34 am

Telegraph is saying 300,000 reservists... which is a significant number.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ilisation/

They've still got to be moved to theatre and armed, fed, motivated and all that though.

In a parallel universe they'd all go and protest in the Red Square having received their call up papers and this thing would be over by the end of the week.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by lpm » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:37 am

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:13 am
lpm wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:54 am
5,000 reservists + extending contracts indefinitely of existing troops.

Doesn't move the dial.
Source for the 5000 figure? I'd expect Russia to have a lot more reservists to call upon. If staffing levels are to believed 5000 won't even halve the gaps in manpower within units.

Also worth noting that these reservists didn't heed the call to fight when big bonuses were offered... so their motivation will be zero. In their position I'd prefer the jail time - at least I'll be alive in 15 years (or after Putin in removed and this law reversed - which ever comes first).

This announcement doesn't move the military dial... might move the political dial, albeit backwards.
There was a twitter thread on it months ago, when there was first speculation about mobilisation. Can't remember who.

Basically broke down the headline number into categories. Russia isn't a healthy country and reservists need to be maintained in fitness and skills, while many are already "serving" via civilian jobs in the logistics chain.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:40 am

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:34 am
Telegraph is saying 300,000 reservists... which is a significant number.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ilisation/

They've still got to be moved to theatre and armed, fed, motivated and all that though.

In a parallel universe they'd all go and protest in the Red Square having received their call up papers and this thing would be over by the end of the week.
I've also seen this number quoted by Arestovych, who also said it was to replenish circa 150000 killed wounded and captured and then to repeat that when the first lot suffer the same fate rather than to raise new units - though he would say that, and isn't the most reliable source.

Whatever the number, though, it doesn't address the following;

Insufficient air support
Insufficient air defences
Insufficient logistics and insufficient transport vehicles to enable logistics any distance from a railhead
Poor morale and cohesion
Poor communication between the disparate elements of the Russian armed forces
Dwindling supplies of serviceable front-line tanks and IFVs

And three hundred thousand, combined with what they have already, doesn't bring them to half of Ukraine's total, and Ukraine has the capacity to mobilise more, especially among women who at present are not drafted, but have volunteered in quite significant numbers. Russia, of course, priding themselves on their reactionary chauvinism, does not have women fighting on the front line.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:50 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:34 am
Key point is the indefinitely extending contracts. A lot of Russian troops are on quite short contracts. Indeed, a lot are already past the end of their contract term and deeply unhappy about being forced to stay even before this decree.

To create their so-called third army corps they lured people in with three to six month contracts. Now they've made them indefinite. I can't see that going well with a formation mostly known for drunkenness, crimes against women wherever they are garrisoned, and collapsing at the first sign of Ukrainians in Kharkiv.
Yeah, there's going to a be a lot of unhappy troops that will now find they can't get out of this war and any attempts to leave have been now made criminal.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Brightonian » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:36 pm


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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:37 pm


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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:49 pm

Yet another Russian having trouble with heights, however, the BBC's Ukrainecast programme gave an earlier opinion it is a return to the banditry days of the post-communism era as opposed to any Kremlin-based funny stuff.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by lpm » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:26 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:37 pm
Good thread on the mobilization.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... _HEad3woww
A GIF moron thread? Seriously? Anyone with valid insight doesn't need silly pictures
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:33 pm

I wonder how aware Putin is that the mechanisms for absorbing masses of conscripts on mobilisation were abandoned more than a decade ago?

Reportedly Thatcher thought the Royal Navy would be sending Ark Royal (decommissioned in 1979) and her air wing of Phantoms and Buccaneers to liberate the Falklands*. This feels similar.



*Crediting Thatcher for retaking the Falklands when they are highly defensible, the Argentine threat was clear and they were lost on her watch is grotesque.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by monkey » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:38 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:34 am
In a parallel universe they'd all go and protest in the Red Square having received their call up papers and this thing would be over by the end of the week.
Looks like they're getting arrested before they get there.

Others are going in the opposite direction, towards the border (ETA: not the Ukrainian one, that's my point)

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:01 pm

monkey wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:38 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:34 am
In a parallel universe they'd all go and protest in the Red Square having received their call up papers and this thing would be over by the end of the week.
Looks like they're getting arrested before they get there.

Others are going in the opposite direction, towards the border (ETA: not the Ukrainian one, that's my point)
Prices for tickets out to countries which don't require visas have surged remarkably.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:12 pm

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status ... AVEsLsFYvg


A 12 tweet thread


Mark Hertling
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Putin's announced mobilization of 300,000 "reservists" was jaw-dropping to me this morning, but not for the reason some might suspect.

Why? Because know how Russian soldiers are trained, in basic training & in their units.

A brief 🧵 on some fun facts. 1/
2:01 PM · Sep 21, 2022
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The training probably manages to be worse than you thought.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:46 pm

jimbob wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:12 pm
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status ... AVEsLsFYvg


A 12 tweet thread


Mark Hertling
@MarkHertling
Normal
6%
Putin's announced mobilization of 300,000 "reservists" was jaw-dropping to me this morning, but not for the reason some might suspect.

Why? Because know how Russian soldiers are trained, in basic training & in their units.

A brief 🧵 on some fun facts. 1/
2:01 PM · Sep 21, 2022
·Twitter Web App
4,875
Retweets
675
Quote Tweets
19.9K
Likes
The training probably manages to be worse than you thought.
According to some people - generally defectors/deserters or those in touch with them - the practise is to insist on photographic proof exercises took place. That means those running the exercise will line everyone up with a rifle to point at the target, get the photo and dismiss everyone so they can trouser the budget - or because they can't run the exercise anyone because someone else trousered the budget. This doesn't just apply to marksmanship, of course, but to everything, including medicine, maintenance, logistics and so on.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Wed Sep 21, 2022 6:07 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:46 pm
jimbob wrote:
Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:12 pm
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status ... AVEsLsFYvg


A 12 tweet thread


Mark Hertling
@MarkHertling
Normal
6%
Putin's announced mobilization of 300,000 "reservists" was jaw-dropping to me this morning, but not for the reason some might suspect.

Why? Because know how Russian soldiers are trained, in basic training & in their units.

A brief 🧵 on some fun facts. 1/
2:01 PM · Sep 21, 2022
·Twitter Web App
4,875
Retweets
675
Quote Tweets
19.9K
Likes
The training probably manages to be worse than you thought.
According to some people - generally defectors/deserters or those in touch with them - the practise is to insist on photographic proof exercises took place. That means those running the exercise will line everyone up with a rifle to point at the target, get the photo and dismiss everyone so they can trouser the budget - or because they can't run the exercise anyone because someone else trousered the budget. This doesn't just apply to marksmanship, of course, but to everything, including medicine, maintenance, logistics and so on.
Not just there, but Western military observers who say that exercises are scripted.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:43 pm

Like a lot of people, I was deeply moved by this footage from Azovstal back in may.

The young woman singing was Kateryna Polishchuk. Due to a prisoner exchange, she's free.

Image

It's also being reported by the BBC that Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner have been freed too, as has Brahim Saadoune, a Moroccan. All three were regular members of the Ukrainian marines who were forced to surrender when surrounded in Mariupol. Despite being in every sense regular members of the Ukrainian armed forces and priviliged combatants entitled to normal POW status, Russia and their pathetic proxies put them in front of a sham court and accused them of being mercenaries and sentenced to death by firing squad. Additionally, Aiden Aslin was clearly beaten and otherwise mistreated while Russian captivity, despite the fact that he was entitled to POW status.

Word is that it was the Saudis that brokered it, but however it played out, it's likely this was possible due to Ukraine capturing significant numbers of Russian invaders in the Kharkiv counteroffensive.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 am

Putin is like the cornered rat that he likes to talk about.
He will turn it up to 11, but which dial will he be twisting? 300 000 is a lot of troops and will make a material difference when they are finally deployed. It also means a lot of dead soldiers on both sides.
The time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by lpm » Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:15 am

Why does 300,000 always get repeated? That was just the propaganda number surely.
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