The Invasion of Ukraine

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Herainestold
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:18 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:15 am
Why does 300,000 always get repeated? That was just the propaganda number surely.
Shoigu said 300 000. I have seen other figures quoted up to 2.5 million
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by headshot » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:47 am

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 am
The time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
Maybe you could head over and massage his balls whilst they try to talk him down.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:44 am

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 am
Putin is like the cornered rat that he likes to talk about.
He will turn it up to 11, but which dial will he be twisting? 300 000 is a lot of troops and will make a material difference when they are finally deployed. It also means a lot of dead soldiers on both sides.
The time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
Military analysts don't appear to be worried about 300,000. First, there is the question of if that number will actually be mustered. And even if it is, the second issue is that managing armies gets harder the larger they get. Given the Russians haven't well managed the current forces then even it's far from clear that the new troops will fare any better. It's more likely that the Russian numbers in the field wont change and the extra 300,000 allow for rotations.

I don't know there is an "off ramp" that would be agreeable to both sides. Zelensky doesn't seem big on appeasement. He's not going to settle while he's advancing.

I'm not sure what last push Ukraine can make before winter (assuming they don't surprise us all by continuing to make gains over winter - it's their back yard and they're the more motivated force, so not impossible) but I think another period of stalemate is likely and western planners need to look at what capability Ukraine needs to build now ready for spring 2023 - because to labour the point EACL has made repeatedly, we need to break out of this cycle of using lack of training as an excuse to not providing the equipment.
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El Pollo Diablo
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:05 am

The MoD's view

Image

Possibly a tad more reliable than the forum communist.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:13 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:05 am
Possibly a tad more reliable than the forum communist.
Being the Forum Communist is one thing... it's being a Putin appeaser that sticks in the craw.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Opti » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:22 am

Genocide enthusiast to boot.
Time for a big fat one.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by temptar » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 am

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 am
The time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
There is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.

The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.

It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by FlammableFlower » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:13 am

temptar wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 am
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 am
The time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
There is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.

The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.

It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
Very much this.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 am

Not sure Putin has any out except feet first.

But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.

Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.

He also has an independent army.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:12 pm

Pretty worrying reports that men are just being forced into the Russian military regardless of military background. This is, of course, disproportionately happening in places like Buryatia and Yakutsk.

The breakup of the Russian Federation cannot come soon enough.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:14 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 am
Not sure Putin has any out except feet first.

But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.

Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.

He also has an independent army.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
Prigozhin would, on the face of it, be worse than Putin.

On the other hand, he is not a likeable or liked person. And he wouldn't be able to rely on the enormous incumbency advantage Putin has in such an apathetic and disengaged population. Prigozhin going after Putin's position could lead to them both falling, and that would be richly deserved.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:43 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:14 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 am
Not sure Putin has any out except feet first.

But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.

Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.

He also has an independent army.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
Prigozhin would, on the face of it, be worse than Putin.

On the other hand, he is not a likeable or liked person. And he wouldn't be able to rely on the enormous incumbency advantage Putin has in such an apathetic and disengaged population. Prigozhin going after Putin's position could lead to them both falling, and that would be richly deserved.
Indeed. I make it two people with independent armies that have no nominal reporting to Putin. Prigozhin and Kadyrov. And neither presumably with much liking for each other.

I don't know who the other players would be.

As you say, a possible breakup of the Russian empire.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:07 pm

Meanwhile it's difficult to emphasise just how much of a big deal this prisoner swap is in Ukraine. It wasn't just Ptashka and the British marines released, it looks like it was all the survivors of the Azovstal garrison, including Denys Prokopenko, Svyatoslav Palamar, Serhiy Volyna and Mykhailo Vershynin. Five of the most senior commanders freed will spend the rest of the war in Turkiye, and, as far as I understand, the rest are going home.

Putin had been planning to murder these people after sham trials. Clearly, his hand was forced here.

And in return the Russians got back Medvechuk and fifty four others. Perhaps those rumours about a general - or even more than one general - being captured at Izyum were true?

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:25 pm

temptar wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 am
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 am
The time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
There is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.

The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.

It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
Putin doesn't see that off ramp, or if he does he sees it as his own off ramp from the presidency and almoast guaranteed demise. I am afraid this is pushing him toward the armageddon option.
Have to be more creative about finding a way out for him, otherwise the options are endless war or nuclear catastrophe.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by headshot » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:28 pm

And sending pissed-off generals who were captured, and (one hopes) treated well, could cause real problems for Putin.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:31 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 am
Not sure Putin has any out except feet first.

But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.

Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.

He also has an independent army.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
Are there any other options for replacing Putin other than a military hardliner? In a struggle between Putin and Prigozhin could a third party emerge?
Somebody non oligarchic and and more attuned to Russia's socialist past. The people must be coming to the realization that Putin's kleptocratic autocracy isnt working for them.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:47 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:31 pm
jimbob wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:29 am
Not sure Putin has any out except feet first.

But also it looks as though that might be getting arranged.

Prigozhin is making moves that a strongman in a strong position could not ignore.

He also has an independent army.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... xpDtOtOqhw
Are there any other options for replacing Putin other than a military hardliner? In a struggle between Putin and Prigozhin could a third party emerge?
Somebody non oligarchic and and more attuned to Russia's socialist past. The people must be coming to the realization that Putin's kleptocratic autocracy isnt working for them.
Russia's "socialist" past was every bit as genocidal and brutal, every bit as racist and imperialist, as it's kleptocratic present.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:48 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:25 pm
temptar wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 am
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:52 am
The time is ripe to offer Putin an off ramp for this debacle. Maybe the Turks or India could act as an intermediary to get him to the table.
There is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.

The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.

It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
Putin doesn't see that off ramp, or if he does he sees it as his own off ramp from the presidency and almoast guaranteed demise. I am afraid this is pushing him toward the armageddon option.
Have to be more creative about finding a way out for him, otherwise the options are endless war or nuclear catastrophe.
The options are not just endless war or nuclear catastrophe. The Soviet Union did not go nuclear when it collapsed. Nor are we under the slightest obligation to surrender so much as a square inch of Ukraine or a single Ukrainian to make the Khuylo feel better about himself.

War until victory is not endless war.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:03 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:48 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:25 pm
temptar wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 am


There is an off ramp. It is called withdrawing his troops and giving up his claims to any territory seized from Ukraine including the Crimea. Return if Ukrainians kidnapped from those territories also and a treaty not to pull a similar stunt again.

The off ramp exists. He chooses not to take it. You want the war to stop, well Putin has the means.

It is his debacle. Ownership of his mess would be a good start.
Putin doesn't see that off ramp, or if he does he sees it as his own off ramp from the presidency and almoast guaranteed demise. I am afraid this is pushing him toward the armageddon option.
Have to be more creative about finding a way out for him, otherwise the options are endless war or nuclear catastrophe.
The options are not just endless war or nuclear catastrophe. The Soviet Union did not go nuclear when it collapsed. Nor are we under the slightest obligation to surrender so much as a square inch of Ukraine or a single Ukrainian to make the Khuylo feel better about himself.

War until victory is not endless war.
I don't see war until victory as a forseeable result given current trends. Victory over Russian forces in Ukraine might be quite quick if NATO were to implement a no fly zone and started bombing (what NATO does best). That would trigger a Russian nuclear response, without any doubt.
A prolonged ground war would favour Russia as they have millions they can conscript and send to the front. It also means an awful lot of dead Russians.
And dead Ukrainians. And a long and cold and miserable winter for Europe and the UK. Just to see a similar situation on the ground next year.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by FlammableFlower » Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:20 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:03 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:48 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:25 pm


Putin doesn't see that off ramp, or if he does he sees it as his own off ramp from the presidency and almoast guaranteed demise. I am afraid this is pushing him toward the armageddon option.
Have to be more creative about finding a way out for him, otherwise the options are endless war or nuclear catastrophe.
The options are not just endless war or nuclear catastrophe. The Soviet Union did not go nuclear when it collapsed. Nor are we under the slightest obligation to surrender so much as a square inch of Ukraine or a single Ukrainian to make the Khuylo feel better about himself.

War until victory is not endless war.
I don't see war until victory as a forseeable result given current trends. Victory over Russian forces in Ukraine might be quite quick if NATO were to implement a no fly zone and started bombing (what NATO does best). That would trigger a Russian nuclear response, without any doubt.
A prolonged ground war would favour Russia as they have millions they can conscript and send to the front. It also means an awful lot of dead Russians.
And dead Ukrainians. And a long and cold and miserable winter for Europe and the UK. Just to see a similar situation on the ground next year.
That didn't work out for the Russia leadership on at least one occasion historically. It's very different fighting a war for survival vs being sent into a neighbouring country on nebulous, changing reasons.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pm

Maybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:54 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pm
Maybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
Evidence from Kharkiv suggests otherwise. Aside from the rapid liberation of territory, and enough captives to effect the prisoner exchange mentioned, Ukraine also captured enough tanks and IFVs to equip an entire mechanised brigade.

War isn't just about numbers. It's about will. It's about cohesion. It's about command and communications. It's about weapons and resources.

And Ukraine comes out ahead on every one of those.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by temptar » Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:58 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pm
Maybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
They have already failed. Now it is a question of admitting it. And the sooner they admit it, the fewer people wind up dead. If reduced numbers of war dead were what you truly wanted, you would be screaming for him to withdraw.

But that is not the impression I am getting.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:01 pm

temptar wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:58 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pm
Maybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
They have already failed. Now it is a question of admitting it. And the sooner they admit it, the fewer people wind up dead. If reduced numbers of war dead were what you truly wanted, you would be screaming for him to withdraw.

But that is not the impression I am getting.
This is absolutely spot on.

And for those still worrying - for Russia to match Ukraine's numbers in the field, they would have to conscript nearly a million. How long do you think their economy can hold out under sanctions if they pull a million able bodied men out of the workforce? And that's before we look at the costs of feeding and arming and transporting them.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by shpalman » Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:31 pm

temptar wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:58 pm
Herainestold wrote:
Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:27 pm
Maybe Russia cant win out right, but they can hold onto large parts of ukraine, kill lots of people and make everybody miserable. That might be a win in their books.
They have already failed. Now it is a question of admitting it...
Well yes, either Putin has to admit it, or someone willing to admit it has to force Putin out. I am not sure how likely the first is, unless Putin can spin a complete failure as somehow being his plan all along.
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