The Invasion of Ukraine

[Grumble]

Something along those lines seems plausible but also worrying. The prospect of Putin being overthrown by Kadyrov or Prigozhin is not an inviting one.

It’s not going to be the Maidan revolution that’s for sure

[jimbob]

Something along those lines seems plausible but also worrying. The prospect of Putin being overthrown by Kadyrov or Prigozhin is not an inviting one.

But even those would have to deal with reality. And they would probably end up finding it useful to blame their predecessor for the disaster and stop the invasion.

Also Russia is geographically huge but its population isn't that big.

And quite likely to break up further.

[bob sterman]

Timothy Snyder essay about the improbability of a nuclear strike (but why it keeps being hinted at) and how a power struggle in Russia might end the war instead.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does- ... ainian-war

A great essay but I would take issue with a few points. He writes...

Before I lay this out, we will first have to clear away the nuclear static. Speaking of nuclear war in a broad, general way, we imagine that the Russo-Ukrainian War is all about us. We feel like the victims. We talk about our fears and anxieties. We write click-bait headlines about the end of the world. But this war is almost certainly not going to end with an exchange of nuclear weapons. States with nuclear weapons have been fighting and losing wars since 1945, without using them. Nuclear powers lose humiliating wars in places like Vietnam and Afghanistan and do not use nuclear weapons.

However, Putin's recent speech has emphasised that to a great extent he does see this conflict as being about "us" (i.e. "The West"). He started by saying "I want the Kyiv authorities and their real masters in the West to hear me..."

Moreover, for US wars in Vietnam/Afghanistan and the Soviet War in Afghanistan - the stakes were not so high for the leaders involved. US Presidents who lose regional wars can look forward to comfortable retirements playing golf rather than a cup of tea that sends a geiger counter wild. And a slow simmering conflict like the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan did not present a crisis moment for Brezhnev/Andropov/Chernenko in the same way a rapid Ukrainian advance does for Putin. The Russians can almost lose as many tanks in a weekend in Ukraine - as they did during the entire Afghan war.

[Sciolus]

Something along those lines seems plausible but also worrying. The prospect of Putin being overthrown by Kadyrov or Prigozhin is not an inviting one.

But even those would have to deal with reality. And they would probably end up finding it useful to blame their predecessor for the disaster and stop the invasion.

In the short term, they would presumably have to withdraw from Ukraine, yes. But in the longer term, they make Putin look like a pussycat.

[lpm]

Timothy Snyder essay about the improbability of a nuclear strike (but why it keeps being hinted at) and how a power struggle in Russia might end the war instead.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does- ... ainian-war

A great essay but I would take issue with a few points. He writes...

Before I lay this out, we will first have to clear away the nuclear static. Speaking of nuclear war in a broad, general way, we imagine that the Russo-Ukrainian War is all about us. We feel like the victims. We talk about our fears and anxieties. We write click-bait headlines about the end of the world. But this war is almost certainly not going to end with an exchange of nuclear weapons. States with nuclear weapons have been fighting and losing wars since 1945, without using them. Nuclear powers lose humiliating wars in places like Vietnam and Afghanistan and do not use nuclear weapons.

However, Putin's recent speech has emphasised that to a great extent he does see this conflict as being about "us" (i.e. "The West"). He started by saying "I want the Kyiv authorities and their real masters in the West to hear me..."

Moreover, for US wars in Vietnam/Afghanistan and the Soviet War in Afghanistan - the stakes were not so high for the leaders involved. US Presidents who lose regional wars can look forward to comfortable retirements playing golf rather than a cup of tea that sends a geiger counter wild. And a slow simmering conflict like the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan did not present a crisis moment for Brezhnev/Andropov/Chernenko in the same way a rapid Ukrainian advance does for Putin. The Russians can almost lose as many tanks in a weekend in Ukraine - as they did during the entire Afghan war.

Good points.

But although the stakes are very high for Putin as an individual, Ukraine is not an important issue for Russia as an entity. Everyone surrounding Putin now realises Russia's borders will never be crossed by western or Ukrainian armies.

But the same doesn't apply to regions, the Stans causing trouble or Kazakhstan cosying up to China. The threat to Russia elsewhere in its territory and zone of influence is a magnitude higher than the threat from the west/Ukraine.

There's a long list of places that are much more valuable strategically than devastated land in east Ukraine. The obvious approach for Russia as an entity is to deploy what's left of the army to places that matter. I think an armistice where Russia keeps Crimea is achievable for the Kremlin.

There's a clear divide between Putin's personal goals and the goals for Russia. Which means Putin can't use a nuke and he can't order the army to self destruction on the west side of the Dnipro.

[Herainestold]

Authoritarian regimes are strong but brittle. They last until they don't.
The problem in Russia is that there is no moderate/left alternative only frothing mouthed war mongers. Prigoshin or Kadurov will reach for the nukes straight away. That leaves no alternative for negotiation but Putin, unhinged as he may seem. Zelensky has indicated he will not go to the bargaining table with Putin. That means total nuclear destruction is the most likely result.

Kyiv has started distributing iodine tablets to the population. They know where this is heading.

What are we doing here? No iodine tablets, no advice about fall out shelters. We are heading into nuclear disaster, distracted by the capitalist economic disaster unfolding. Which will get us first, nuclear destruction, malnutrition and hypothermia, or the next covid variant?

[Grumble]

Authoritarian regimes are strong but brittle. They last until they don't.
The problem in Russia is that there is no moderate/left alternative only frothing mouthed war mongers. Prigoshin or Kadurov will reach for the nukes straight away. That leaves no alternative for negotiation but Putin, unhinged as he may seem. Zelensky has indicated he will not go to the bargaining table with Putin. That means total nuclear destruction is the most likely result.

Kyiv has started distributing iodine tablets to the population. They know where this is heading.

What are we doing here? No iodine tablets, no advice about fall out shelters. We are heading into nuclear disaster, distracted by the capitalist economic disaster unfolding. Which will get us first, nuclear destruction, malnutrition and hypothermia, or the next covid variant?

In the event that Prigoshin or Kadurov make a play for the top spot they’ll find that their little armies are completely inadequate. They aren’t going to be able to do much. Kadurov might declare independence for Chechnya and Prigoshin might try to set up as bandit king of the Urals but they aren’t going for the top job. Russia would go into proper civil war before they got anywhere

[Sciolus]

Kyiv has started distributing iodine tablets to the population. They know where this is heading.

Iodide tablets are a precaution against a potential release from the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power station, which is a credible risk. They are not an effective protection against nuclear weapons.

[bob sterman]

What are we doing here? No iodine tablets, no advice about fall out shelters.

As Sciolus has noted - iodine tables are for power plant leaks (although it's highly likely our nuclear power plants would be leaking following a major attack!).

However, extensive preparations are potentially escalatory and largely pointless in a small island like the UK. If it all kicks off, might as well just pop outside to bask in a millisecond of instant sunshine - before all worries about the next COVID variant are vaporised.

[headshot]

Yes. I very much intend to be running towards a nuke rather than away from it.

[jimbob]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ar-falters

Key figures including Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin are using military defeats to undermine defence chief Sergei Shoigu

https://mobile.twitter.com/igorsushko/s ... 1014669313

Igor Sushko
@igorsushko
Normal
4%
#Prigozhin's propagandist Alexey Slobodenyuk who's been attacking Shoigu online arrested in #Moscow by SOBR Rosgvardia spetsnaz unit. SOBR are highly loyal to Putin. That this arrest was not made by the FSB, as you'd expect, is indicative of internal power struggle & distrust.

How healthy is it for a strongman to have underlings openly jockey for position as though he is irrelevant?

[Herainestold]

Kyiv has started distributing iodine tablets to the population. They know where this is heading.

Iodide tablets are a precaution against a potential release from the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power station, which is a credible risk. They are not an effective protection against nuclear weapons.

You are correct. They should be giving us cyanide vials.

[Herainestold]

We have reached the point where The West should negotiate with Putin or we should kiss our arses goodbye.

I was thinking I should put my affairs in order but then I thought "Why?" There will be nothing left.

[Grumble]

We have reached the point where The West should negotiate with Putin or we should kiss our arses goodbye.

I was thinking I should put my affairs in order but then I thought "Why?" There will be nothing left.

You seem to think Putin is the one with power. Not sure why.

[lpm]

You've been expecting to die from Covid for nearly 3 years. I'd have thought by now your affairs were beautifully organised with every file neatly labelled.

[temptar]

We have reached the point where The West should negotiate with Putin or we should kiss our arses goodbye.

I was thinking I should put my affairs in order but then I thought "Why?" There will be nothing left.

No we haven’t.

[TopBadger]

These "strongmen" all have families... they don't want to set the world on fire.

[Martin_B]

This is a man who claimed to live in Canada but had little idea about the benefits of beavers.

[headshot]

This is a man who claimed to live in Canada but had little idea about the benefits of beavers.

Canadians hate beavers. That's why you can buy cuddly toys of them almost everywhere you go in Canada, and my Canadian friends and family all love them.

[Herainestold]

This is a man who claimed to live in Canada but had little idea about the benefits of beavers.

Canadians hate beavers. That's why you can buy cuddly toys of them almost everywhere you go in Canada, and my Canadian friends and family all love them.

The beaver is a Canadian symbol. They are not hated. In some places where they are protected they have become a nuisance.
Canada has a large Ukrainian population, but I haven't seen too much about them helping the Ukrainians. Too occupied by marauding beavers.

[Bird on a Fire]

This is a man who claimed to live in Canada but had little idea about the benefits of beavers.

Canadians hate beavers. That's why you can buy cuddly toys of them almost everywhere you go in Canada, and my Canadian friends and family all love them.

The beaver is a Canadian symbol. They are not hated. In some places where they are protected they have become a nuisance.

I wouldn't be remotely surprised if there are frictions between beavers and the forestry industry, perhaps agriculture and other rural economic activities. They do do economic damage, which might even be significant in areas with high populations.

I'm sure plenty of townies have overwhelmingly positive views. I'd consider myself pro-beaver, but they can still have their downsides.

[lpm]

The players are:

Putin
Oligarchs
Duma politicians
FSB
Military
Mercenary groups like Wagner
Local provincial leaders with an eye on rebellion
China

The oligarchs are the key. They need Putin to preserve the status quo that lets them ransack the economy. But they will be terrified of the FSB or military overthrowing Putin and destroying the status quo. Therefore they protect Putin as long as they dare - until a tipping point. The moment Putin gets too weak, they need to act fast to defenestrate him and install a new protector of their interests. A Ceausescu moment, an apparent overthrow of a dictator but in fact a continuation of the regime (in Romania the communist party vanished but all the major players in the communist party continued to win office...)

The alternative for the oligarchs is to risk a genuine revolution. For example, the military using the Duma politicians as cover. At the moment the military and FSB seem to prefer infighting, presumably partly encouraged by Putin. But a coup would be fairly straightforward if they worked together?

The pressure comes from the mercenaries and obscure regions. There's no existential crisis if Russia retreats from Ukraine, particularly if it holds Crimea. But there is an existential crisis if provincial warlords seize the moment and try for a little kingdom.

Then there's China. They want Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to leave Russia's sphere of interest and join their sphere. Currently that's via their usual economic method: belt and road. But with no Russian army left, why not go directly various natural resources in Russia's east? The route would be via a chaotic Russia where provincial leaders "invite" China in to invest in infrastructure, run the industries and keep everything secure. With that as a threat, surely military and FSB would act to shore up the crumbling nation.

This game could play out very fast now...

[EACLucifer]

Wagner group Telegram channel reporting the ousting of Gerasimov and Shoigu.

Massive caution should be applied with these claims. Wagner group is run by Prigozhin, who wants Gerasimov and Shoigu out so he can take over.

[EACLucifer]

The players are:

Putin
Oligarchs
Duma politicians
FSB
Military
Mercenary groups like Wagner
Local provincial leaders with an eye on rebellion
China

The oligarchs are the key. They need Putin to preserve the status quo that lets them ransack the economy. But they will be terrified of the FSB or military overthrowing Putin and destroying the status quo. Therefore they protect Putin as long as they dare - until a tipping point. The moment Putin gets too weak, they need to act fast to defenestrate him and install a new protector of their interests. A Ceausescu moment, an apparent overthrow of a dictator but in fact a continuation of the regime (in Romania the communist party vanished but all the major players in the communist party continued to win office...)

The alternative for the oligarchs is to risk a genuine revolution. For example, the military using the Duma politicians as cover. At the moment the military and FSB seem to prefer infighting, presumably partly encouraged by Putin. But a coup would be fairly straightforward if they worked together?

The pressure comes from the mercenaries and obscure regions. There's no existential crisis if Russia retreats from Ukraine, particularly if it holds Crimea. But there is an existential crisis if provincial warlords seize the moment and try for a little kingdom.

Then there's China. They want Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to leave Russia's sphere of interest and join their sphere. Currently that's via their usual economic method: belt and road. But with no Russian army left, why not go directly various natural resources in Russia's east? The route would be via a chaotic Russia where provincial leaders "invite" China in to invest in infrastructure, run the industries and keep everything secure. With that as a threat, surely military and FSB would act to shore up the crumbling nation.

This game could play out very fast now...

Pretty solid, but it makes sense to divide Oligarchs into the separate category of Oligarchs and Siloviki. The former make money by owning businesses, and use that for political power. The latter are more openly thuggish, and too brutish to successfully run most businesses, but have the political connections to bleed industries dry - just as long as they don't rely on too much investment to function. Oligarchs might invest money into their businesses to create long term gains, be that legitimately or through bribes, etc. Siloviki would just pocket that money, along with everything else they can squeeze out, and hope their political connections sort it out.

Siloviki are basically top-level henchmen.

Kadyrov and Prigozhin are more at the siloviki end of the spectrum. Especially Kayrov. Kadyrov being in charge of Russia terrifies me as an idea, as I genuinely do not think he is clever enough to understand the balance of terror.

And yes, things can move very fast. The unthinkable can become the inevitable in days.

[Herainestold]

And yes, things can move very fast. The unthinkable can become the inevitable in days.

The unthinkable is becoming conventional wisdom. The American President is talking about Armageddon. We will be lucky to make it to Guy Fawkes Day.