The Invasion of Ukraine

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 4538
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:58 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:43 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:06 am
TopBadger wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:36 am

Perhaps Putin realizes that he's going to need the support of the "not crazy nationalists" wing of his military to have a chance of surviving any upcoming coup... or at least being put out to retirement rather than put in the ground.
This could well be the MOD reasserting their position after Surovikin bypassed them, allegedly reporting directly to Putin. Restoring Lapin and moving Gerasimov in directly both strengthen MOD control of operations. Could be Putin's realised Prigozhin's ambitions are dangerous.
Putin is in a difficult position. Dictators often thrive using divide and rule strategies and creating rivalry between Prigozhin and the regular army will suit Putin's ends. But its important that one or other rival courtier doesn't get too powerful.
And this is where I don't understand Putin's actions.

Prigozhin has been clearly acting to the detriment of the overall Russian war effort in order to better his position and, more seriously, some of his posturing seems aimed at making him look presidential and looking good compared to Putin.

I'd have thought that Putin would need to stamp on disrespect, (especially from ambitious senior courtiers) if he wanted to retain a reputation as a strongman who still has a grip. The alternative would be unlikely to be healthy for Putin. He can't retire to a dacha and expect his successor to not take actions to protect against his residual influence.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 6125
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Jan 12, 2023 1:26 pm

jimbob wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:58 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:43 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:06 am


This could well be the MOD reasserting their position after Surovikin bypassed them, allegedly reporting directly to Putin. Restoring Lapin and moving Gerasimov in directly both strengthen MOD control of operations. Could be Putin's realised Prigozhin's ambitions are dangerous.
Putin is in a difficult position. Dictators often thrive using divide and rule strategies and creating rivalry between Prigozhin and the regular army will suit Putin's ends. But its important that one or other rival courtier doesn't get too powerful.
And this is where I don't understand Putin's actions.

Prigozhin has been clearly acting to the detriment of the overall Russian war effort in order to better his position and, more seriously, some of his posturing seems aimed at making him look presidential and looking good compared to Putin.

I'd have thought that Putin would need to stamp on disrespect, (especially from ambitious senior courtiers) if he wanted to retain a reputation as a strongman who still has a grip. The alternative would be unlikely to be healthy for Putin. He can't retire to a dacha and expect his successor to not take actions to protect against his residual influence.
Yes, I agree. Putin's primary aim isn't to win the war, but his own survival. He knows that if he loses his grip on power he'd very likely end up imprisoned or killed. Putin has neutralized opposition from oligarchs and civil society. But he can't neutralize the army and they retain the power to depose him in a coup. But he can reduce the power of the army by playing divide and rule. Any general thinking of seizing the Kremlin and Moscow TV stations will also have to consider what Prigozhin and Wagner will do and whether they'd fight for Putin.

Of course he's look stronger if he didn't tolerate any disrespect. But maybe he doesn't feel strong. Maybe he lies awake wondering how loyal the generals actually are and what he can do to dissuade them from deposing him.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 6125
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:02 pm

As well as Soledar it looks like Russian forces have also made advances into the Bakhmut suburb of Opytne and the settlement of Kurdyumivka south of Bakhmut. But the amount of territory gained has been very limited and the price paid in casualties very high.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3146
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:05 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:02 pm
As well as Soledar it looks like Russian forces have also made advances into the Bakhmut suburb of Opytne and the settlement of Kurdyumivka south of Bakhmut. But the amount of territory gained has been very limited and the price paid in casualties very high.
They were present in Optyne a couple of weeks ago, there seems to have been a degree of back and forth. Russia's tactics guarantee they will suffer heavy casualties, as they are using similar tactics they used during the summer Donbas battles, but without the immense artillery advantage they then enjoyed - and even then, they suffered heavy casualties.

noggins
Snowbonk
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:30 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by noggins » Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:34 pm

Is it possible that elements in Russia want Wagner wiped out in battle?

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3146
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:41 pm

noggins wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:34 pm
Is it possible that elements in Russia want Wagner wiped out in battle?
I'd expect some probably do. One thing to note about Wagner group's casualties, though, is that they are disproportionately amongst the convicts, people about whom neither Wagner group nor Russian leadership as a whole give a damn about.

On the other hand, if the advance into Soledar did occur - as currently appears to be the case - because elements of the VDV were committed, then Wagner may have unwittingly demonstrated that their approach, which works fine for looting gold in Africa, doesn't work for full scale war against a peer adversary. I'm sure there's elements in Russia that do want that to be demonstrated.

User avatar
bolo
Catbabel
Posts: 915
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:17 pm
Location: Washington DC

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bolo » Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:47 pm

And I imagine there are elements who think killing off prisoners and ethnic minorities is a positively good thing, not just something they don't give a damn about.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3146
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:56 pm

One further possibility I'd missed, but which Rob Lee mentions in a couple of tweets - the reshuffle could be to do with Belarus.

Oleg Salyukov, Gerasimov’s deputy for the war in Ukraine, visits Belarus the day after she reshuffle

One thing that quite a few people are saying is that this might not be so much a demotion of Surovikin as a recognition that the war is more serious than they previously admitted, hence bringing in Gerasimov, their Chief of the General Staff. Rob Lee notes that this would be compatible with bringing in Belarusian troops.

All previous caveats about the involvement of Belarus still apply, however, it is looking more and more like Russia is planning a spring offensive with mobilised troops. It isn't impossible they'd go through Belarus, and might try to rope in Belarusian troops too. As always, the west needs to be putting immense pressure on Belarus, and shouldn't rule out direct intervention, and should certainly place supplying Ukraine with appropriate standoff munitions and allowing their use against Belarusian soil on the table.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3146
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:45 am

The price cap on Russian oil seems to be working - Ural crude is trading at less than $40 a barrel.

User avatar
bjn
After Pie
Posts: 2417
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Fri Jan 13, 2023 12:11 pm

With their main export markets cut off from them, their remaining customers have got them over a barrel. Ideally India and others shouldn’t be buying anything from them in the first place, but this is second best to that.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 6125
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Jan 13, 2023 3:33 pm

bjn wrote:
Fri Jan 13, 2023 12:11 pm
With their main export markets cut off from them, their remaining customers have got them over a barrel. Ideally India and others shouldn’t be buying anything from them in the first place, but this is second best to that.
They're selling oil at a discount to India and others.

User avatar
bjn
After Pie
Posts: 2417
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Fri Jan 13, 2023 3:47 pm

Precisely. India can dictate the price as Russia has very few other buyers.

User avatar
bjn
After Pie
Posts: 2417
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:22 pm

The german defence minister is resigning next week. That might shake things up a bit WRT supplying arms to Ukraine.

User avatar
Grumble
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3912
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Grumble » Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:41 pm

bjn wrote:
Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:22 pm
The german defence minister is resigning next week. That might shake things up a bit WRT supplying arms to Ukraine.
The Germans do things differently don’t they? When we have a resignation it’s normally done within the day.
A bit churlish

User avatar
Gfamily
Light of Blast
Posts: 4574
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:00 pm
Location: NW England

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Gfamily » Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:47 pm

Grumble wrote:
Fri Jan 13, 2023 10:41 pm
bjn wrote:
Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:22 pm
The german defence minister is resigning next week. That might shake things up a bit WRT supplying arms to Ukraine.
The Germans do things differently don’t they? When we have a resignation it’s normally done within the day.
Might it be because the 'do-ing' part of the sentence only comes at the end?
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3146
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jan 14, 2023 9:08 am

Explosions reported in Kyiv, and reports of Russian strategic bombers in the air.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3146
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jan 14, 2023 9:47 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Jan 14, 2023 9:08 am
Explosions reported in Kyiv, and reports of Russian strategic bombers in the air.
First blasts apparently occurred before sirens went off. I've heard audio of one of them, very pronounced double-boom. Both these point towards it being ballistic missiles - likely Iskanders fired from Belarus. The US has ballistic missiles of similar range and launchers capable of operating them are already in Ukraine - it's absurd that Belarusian and for that matter Russian soil can be used as a shield for attacks on civilian targets.

Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 1961
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jan 14, 2023 4:48 pm

bolo wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:47 pm
And I imagine there are elements who think killing off prisoners and ethnic minorities is a positively good thing, not just something they don't give a damn about.
There are people here who likely think the same thing.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

temptar
Fuzzable
Posts: 253
Joined: Sun May 10, 2020 6:19 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by temptar » Sun Jan 15, 2023 5:45 am

Well Harold, all Russia has to do is pull out of Ukraine and this stops happening. Until then, Ukraine has to keep on defending and has to.

Suggesting they settle only prolongs the agony for an indefinite period and demonstrates that colonialism is once more acceptable.

temptar
Fuzzable
Posts: 253
Joined: Sun May 10, 2020 6:19 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by temptar » Sun Jan 15, 2023 5:47 am

temptar wrote:
Sun Jan 15, 2023 5:45 am
Well Harold, all Russia has to do is pull out of Ukraine and this stops happening. Until then, Ukraine has to keep on defending and has to.

Suggesting they settle only prolongs the agony for an indefinite period and demonstrates that colonialism is once more acceptable.
I have just noticed the “here” in your comment. You really aren’t arguing in good faith, are you?

FlammableFlower
Dorkwood
Posts: 1373
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:22 pm

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by FlammableFlower » Sun Jan 15, 2023 8:21 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sat Jan 14, 2023 4:48 pm
bolo wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:47 pm
And I imagine there are elements who think killing off prisoners and ethnic minorities is a positively good thing, not just something they don't give a damn about.
There are people here who likely think the same thing.
Do you have any evidence whatsoever that anyone in this site has voiced it to be a positively good thing?

User avatar
headshot
Dorkwood
Posts: 1170
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by headshot » Sun Jan 15, 2023 9:13 am

FlammableFlower wrote:
Sun Jan 15, 2023 8:21 am
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Jan 14, 2023 4:48 pm
bolo wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:47 pm
And I imagine there are elements who think killing off prisoners and ethnic minorities is a positively good thing, not just something they don't give a damn about.
There are people here who likely think the same thing.
Do you have any evidence whatsoever that anyone in this site has voiced it to be a positively good thing?
H could be talking about the "here" where they are based...because it's clear they're not in the UK.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3146
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:32 pm

The missile attack which destroyed a block of flats in Dnipro yesterday - nowhere near the frontlines or any military target - was carried out with a Kh-22 anti-shipping missile. This missile was originally designed to destroy aircraft carriers. It carries a warhead weighing about a ton, and has guidance systems that steer it to the vicinity of a fleet, where its own onboard radar then finds its target. When used against ground targets, its radar can't do anything, meaning it will hit somewhere within a large area - it's CEP* is sometimes quoted as six hundred metres. It flies very fast, too, with a top speed of more than Mach 4 - cruise missiles are usually subsonic - and this means that it is very difficult to intercept.

So that block of flats wasn't the target. The whole city of Dnipro was the target. This wasn't an attack on a military target gone wrong, it was an attack on civilians with a weapon chosen not because it could neutralise a military threat but because it would cause extreme damage somewhere within a city and couldn't be stopped by Ukraine's increasingly effective air defences. State terrorism, pure and simple.


*radius of circle where half the projectiles will land within and half outside.

User avatar
bjn
After Pie
Posts: 2417
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:44 pm

Using a very expensive bit of kit to do a job it wasn’t designed for reeks of running out of more appropriate kit.

User avatar
EACLucifer
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3146
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: In Sumerian Haze

Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jan 15, 2023 3:01 pm

bjn wrote:
Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:44 pm
Using a very expensive bit of kit to do a job it wasn’t designed for reeks of running out of more appropriate kit.
Possibly, but I think the speed was a factor too - Ukraine are getting good at shooting down cruise missiles, which was why we saw these used, and also S-300s repurposed from their intended anti-air role into ground attack ballistic missiles - the common traits between the attack on Dnipro and the attacks on Kyiv that the weapons were accurate enough to target a city, but not a military target within an urban environment, and that the weapons used are notably very difficult to intercept. In both cases Patriot could, but it's not due to arrive for about six months - though it would have been in service last summer if America had agreed to sell it to Ukraine when they asked for it. Additionally, for S-300s to target Kyiv would mean they were fired close to the border - those launching positions could be targetted quite effectively if the US weren't handicapping Ukraine's use of GMLRS.

Post Reply