The Invasion of Ukraine

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Woodchopper
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:37 am

Rheinmetall states that it would take about a year to get the Leopards stored in German reserves to combat readiness. Apparently they all need to be dismantled and rebuilt. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... until-2024

Take it with a pinch of salt as everything coming out of Germany is weird. But that is consistent with pre-2022 reports about the state of the German armed forces.

If true then the tale of Napoleon and the trees lining French roads comes to mind.

Obviously that timescale doesn't necessarily apply to other countries.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jan 16, 2023 8:58 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:37 am
Rheinmetall states that it would take about a year to get the Leopards stored in German reserves to combat readiness. Apparently they all need to be dismantled and rebuilt. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... until-2024

Take it with a pinch of salt as everything coming out of Germany is weird. But that is consistent with pre-2022 reports about the state of the German armed forces.

If true then the tale of Napoleon and the trees lining French roads comes to mind.

Obviously that timescale doesn't necessarily apply to other countries.
I recall them claiming that about Gepards, too. And doesn't apply to other countries. That said, there's rumours the Spanish Leo 2A4s aren't in the best shape - some cannibalisation probably required in the short term.

ETA: Extra context - the claim about the Gepards may have been true...sort of. The last of the batch haven't been delivered yet. It's likely some needed a lot of work. Others, though, were delivered about as soon as the political will allowed. That may also be true of the Leopards - both 1 and 2.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:49 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:37 am
Rheinmetall states that it would take about a year to get the Leopards stored in German reserves to combat readiness. Apparently they all need to be dismantled and rebuilt. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... until-2024

Take it with a pinch of salt as everything coming out of Germany is weird. But that is consistent with pre-2022 reports about the state of the German armed forces.

If true then the tale of Napoleon and the trees lining French roads comes to mind.

Obviously that timescale doesn't necessarily apply to other countries.
Via Michael D Weiss, this Reuters article from April has them giving a very different picture.
BERLIN, April 11 (Reuters) - Military equipment maker Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE) is preparing to supply up to 50 used Leopard 1 battle tanks to Ukraine, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Monday, citing the group's CEO.

Rheinmetall could deliver the first tanks in six weeks and the rest over the following three months through its subsidiary Rheinmetall Italia if it gets a green light from the German government, Chief Executive Armin Papperger told Handelsblatt.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:41 pm

When I read disparities like this I really hope that shareholders aren't trying to drag out refurb contracts...
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:06 pm

bjn wrote:
Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:22 pm
The german defence minister is resigning next week. That might shake things up a bit WRT supplying arms to Ukraine.
Appointing someone who was part of the German-Russian Friendship Group feels like it might not be an improvement. Pro-appeasement and downright pro-Russians seem happy with the appointment of Boris Pistorius, obviously I hope he's better than that, but fear he might not be.

Those more up to speed on German politics can probably get a better handle on this - I'm getting this second hand from my German contacts.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:55 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:49 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:37 am
Rheinmetall states that it would take about a year to get the Leopards stored in German reserves to combat readiness. Apparently they all need to be dismantled and rebuilt. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... until-2024

Take it with a pinch of salt as everything coming out of Germany is weird. But that is consistent with pre-2022 reports about the state of the German armed forces.

If true then the tale of Napoleon and the trees lining French roads comes to mind.

Obviously that timescale doesn't necessarily apply to other countries.
Via Michael D Weiss, this Reuters article from April has them giving a very different picture.
BERLIN, April 11 (Reuters) - Military equipment maker Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE) is preparing to supply up to 50 used Leopard 1 battle tanks to Ukraine, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Monday, citing the group's CEO.

Rheinmetall could deliver the first tanks in six weeks and the rest over the following three months through its subsidiary Rheinmetall Italia if it gets a green light from the German government, Chief Executive Armin Papperger told Handelsblatt.
I think this is the original source, an interview with the head of Rheinmetall in Bild.

Here's a machine translated version:
Ukraine also desperately wants Leopard main battle tanks. How many of these can you supply?

Papperger: “We still have 22 Leopard 2 vehicles that we could prepare for use and deliver to the Ukraine. We still have around 88 vehicles from the Leopard 1. But we cannot repair these tanks without an order, as the costs are several hundred million euros. Rheinmetall cannot finance that in advance.”

How long would it take to restore the Leopard tanks?

Papperger: “Just under a year. The vehicles are not only repainted, but also have to be converted for use in war. They are completely disassembled and then rebuilt. This means that even if the decision is made tomorrow that we can send our Leopard tanks to Kyiv, delivery will take until the beginning of next year.”
It looks like the Leopard 2s could be sent pretty quickly, but the Leopard 1s would need a year and hundreds of millions of Euros.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:10 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:55 pm
It looks like the Leopard 2s could be sent pretty quickly, but the Leopard 1s would need a year and hundreds of millions of Euros.
That's a direct contradiction of earlier statements. At this point I don't particularly trust German goverment statements or statements of arms industry leaders very close to that government, and I certainly don't trust a tabloid to accurately report what is quite a nuanced issue where small details often matter a lot. Probably best to chalk up the condition of the Leopard 1s as a "don't know" - it's also quite possible that their condition varies, as previous statements referred to a smaller number of vehicles but had them ready much sooner. We also saw this with Gepards - they were allegedly unready to be sent, in poor condition, etc, except the first were then sent quite quickly, with others taking much longer to get ready.

We'll probably see quite a lot more information about military aid in general after the Ramstein conference this friday.

Additionally, I started another thread for technical discussions so that this one could focus on the political and humanitarian aspects - and not put off people put off by technical discussions - please start technical discussions, like condition of tanks, manufacture of artillery shells, in that thread.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Jan 20, 2023 8:53 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:10 pm
Additionally, I started another thread for technical discussions so that this one could focus on the political and humanitarian aspects - and not put off people put off by technical discussions - please start technical discussions, like condition of tanks, manufacture of artillery shells, in that thread.
I think that discussion of politics and economics can stay in this thread. Good to post technical stuff in the other. But it gets difficult when a discussion starts on the politics and then gets technical.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jan 20, 2023 9:28 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 8:53 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:10 pm
Additionally, I started another thread for technical discussions so that this one could focus on the political and humanitarian aspects - and not put off people put off by technical discussions - please start technical discussions, like condition of tanks, manufacture of artillery shells, in that thread.
I think that discussion of politics and economics can stay in this thread. Good to post technical stuff in the other. But it gets difficult when a discussion starts on the politics and then gets technical.
I absolutely agree that it is hard to draw a hard line between them, and sometimes one informs the other - to pick a recent example, the specifications of the Kh-22, the missile that killed several dozen civilians in Dnipro recently - tell us that the intent of the attack was to terrorise and kill civilians.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by shpalman » Fri Jan 20, 2023 1:20 pm

Well I'm sure the war will stop now that some physicists have signed a petition. I bet Putin will capitulate immediately now that a few hundred people have pointed out that nuclear war would be bad!
The petition – so far signed by over 800 people – was initiated by the DESY particle physicist Hannes Jung as well as organizations such as the Science4Peace Forum and the Ukrainian Pacifist Movement. In it they say that scientists cannot remain silent with the increasing threat of nuclear war.
“Even without the explicit use of nuclear weapons, there are nuclear power plants under fire, and the risk for a nuclear catastrophe is increasing the longer this war continues...”
It's not like there aren't a whole load of better immediate reasons why Ukraine needs to win this war as soon as possible.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:26 pm

Google Translate of Gazeta.ru headline

Putin dismissed Alexei Pavlov from the post of Assistant Secretary of the Security Council
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Sciolus » Fri Jan 20, 2023 8:07 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 1:20 pm
Well I'm sure the war will stop now that some physicists have signed a petition. I bet Putin will capitulate immediately now that a few hundred people have pointed out that nuclear war would be bad!
The petition – so far signed by over 800 people – was initiated by the DESY particle physicist Hannes Jung as well as organizations such as the Science4Peace Forum and the Ukrainian Pacifist Movement. In it they say that scientists cannot remain silent with the increasing threat of nuclear war.
“Even without the explicit use of nuclear weapons, there are nuclear power plants under fire, and the risk for a nuclear catastrophe is increasing the longer this war continues...”
It's not like there aren't a whole load of better immediate reasons why Ukraine needs to win this war as soon as possible.
f.ck off with conflating nuclear weapons with nuclear power. They aren't remotely comparable. tw.t.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jan 20, 2023 8:18 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 8:07 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 1:20 pm
Well I'm sure the war will stop now that some physicists have signed a petition. I bet Putin will capitulate immediately now that a few hundred people have pointed out that nuclear war would be bad!
The petition – so far signed by over 800 people – was initiated by the DESY particle physicist Hannes Jung as well as organizations such as the Science4Peace Forum and the Ukrainian Pacifist Movement. In it they say that scientists cannot remain silent with the increasing threat of nuclear war.
“Even without the explicit use of nuclear weapons, there are nuclear power plants under fire, and the risk for a nuclear catastrophe is increasing the longer this war continues...”
It's not like there aren't a whole load of better immediate reasons why Ukraine needs to win this war as soon as possible.
f.ck off with conflating nuclear weapons with nuclear power. They aren't remotely comparable. tw.t.
Anyone who can talk about that without mentioning that it is Russia that decided to occupy the plant at Enerhodar and station military equipment there and to use it to shell Nikopol needs to shut the f.ck up and learn before speaking again on the subject.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Herainestold » Sat Jan 21, 2023 4:27 pm

Some background on the German non-decision on Leopard 2 tanks, by the notorious tankie Michael Weiss and James Rushton.
Vogel added that one reason for Germany’s self-contradictory (and self-flagellating) policy making on Ukraine is that the government is heavily siloed along partisan or ideological lines. Scholz maintains a team of his own hand-selected foreign policy advisers, culled from the ranks of his Social Democratic Party, who work independently of the German Foreign Ministry, which is controlled by the Green Party. The environmentally driven Greens see Moscow and the Kremlin’s weaponized export industry for gas and oil as international security threats to Europe. Thus, the Greens been far more bullish on helping Ukraine fend off its invaders. “If this were up to the Greens, Ukraine would already have Leopards,” Vogel said.
https://news.yahoo.com/how-germanys-doc ... &tsrc=twtr
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:15 pm

I've generally been talking about the Leopard situation on the other thread, but there has been a fairly major development, per Oleksii Reznikov, and that is that Ukrainian crews are to begin training on the Leopard 2. That will put further pressure on Scholz, but also likely suggests that other nations are hopeful of getting the requisite paperwork to supply them, or will even bypass it.

While I strongly disagree with some of the stuff being said about the Abrams - much of it seriously underestimating the Ukrainians who cope fine with things like T-80s and captured T-90s - fewer models of tanks makes sense in the shorter term. If necessary, Abrams could come into play later, if necessary. America, however, should further step up aid, America is proportionately behind quite a lot of countries when it comes to military aid provision.

ETA: There's also talk of the Leclerc tank going from France, and it is potentially a decent option as there are a number in storage. A system by which countries agreed to collectively fund the most effective provision of equipment would help a lot here - and the Netherlands at least, unable to directly supply tanks, is considering funding other nations to do so.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jdc » Sat Jan 21, 2023 7:26 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:15 pm
I've generally been talking about the Leopard situation on the other thread, but there has been a fairly major development, per Oleksii Reznikov, and that is that Ukrainian crews are to begin training on the Leopard 2. That will put further pressure on Scholz, but also likely suggests that other nations are hopeful of getting the requisite paperwork to supply them, or will even bypass it.

While I strongly disagree with some of the stuff being said about the Abrams - much of it seriously underestimating the Ukrainians who cope fine with things like T-80s and captured T-90s - fewer models of tanks makes sense in the shorter term. If necessary, Abrams could come into play later, if necessary. America, however, should further step up aid, America is proportionately behind quite a lot of countries when it comes to military aid provision.

ETA: There's also talk of the Leclerc tank going from France, and it is potentially a decent option as there are a number in storage. A system by which countries agreed to collectively fund the most effective provision of equipment would help a lot here - and the Netherlands at least, unable to directly supply tanks, is considering funding other nations to do so.
I saw a quote from the Polish PM saying they'd deliver Leopards whether or not they got the green light from Germany. Similar comments from a Lithuanian minister.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:54 pm

jdc wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 7:26 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:15 pm
I've generally been talking about the Leopard situation on the other thread, but there has been a fairly major development, per Oleksii Reznikov, and that is that Ukrainian crews are to begin training on the Leopard 2. That will put further pressure on Scholz, but also likely suggests that other nations are hopeful of getting the requisite paperwork to supply them, or will even bypass it.

While I strongly disagree with some of the stuff being said about the Abrams - much of it seriously underestimating the Ukrainians who cope fine with things like T-80s and captured T-90s - fewer models of tanks makes sense in the shorter term. If necessary, Abrams could come into play later, if necessary. America, however, should further step up aid, America is proportionately behind quite a lot of countries when it comes to military aid provision.

ETA: There's also talk of the Leclerc tank going from France, and it is potentially a decent option as there are a number in storage. A system by which countries agreed to collectively fund the most effective provision of equipment would help a lot here - and the Netherlands at least, unable to directly supply tanks, is considering funding other nations to do so.
I saw a quote from the Polish PM saying they'd deliver Leopards whether or not they got the green light from Germany. Similar comments from a Lithuanian minister.
Yes. While that would imperil Poland's access to German arms in the future, they seem far more interested in dealing with the USA, South Korea, and domestic production anyway. The latest news is that Lambrecht blocked a proper inventory being taken of Leopard 1s and Leopard 2s, so as not to put pressure on Scholz. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are fighting and dying, and we all know it is in our interests too that Russia is both prevented from winning, but also properly defeated and, ideally, dismantled.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Sat Jan 21, 2023 10:19 pm

Tangentially, Orban has blocked a tranche of EU aid to Ukraine, because he's a Putinist areshole.

https://news.yahoo.com/hungary-blocks-a ... 27654.html

They are also sacking hundreds of officers from the Hungarian army, the speculation is the reason is that they are pro NATO.

https://dailynewshungary.com/hundreds-o ... n-hungary/

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:18 pm

jdc wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 7:26 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:15 pm
I've generally been talking about the Leopard situation on the other thread, but there has been a fairly major development, per Oleksii Reznikov, and that is that Ukrainian crews are to begin training on the Leopard 2. That will put further pressure on Scholz, but also likely suggests that other nations are hopeful of getting the requisite paperwork to supply them, or will even bypass it.

While I strongly disagree with some of the stuff being said about the Abrams - much of it seriously underestimating the Ukrainians who cope fine with things like T-80s and captured T-90s - fewer models of tanks makes sense in the shorter term. If necessary, Abrams could come into play later, if necessary. America, however, should further step up aid, America is proportionately behind quite a lot of countries when it comes to military aid provision.

ETA: There's also talk of the Leclerc tank going from France, and it is potentially a decent option as there are a number in storage. A system by which countries agreed to collectively fund the most effective provision of equipment would help a lot here - and the Netherlands at least, unable to directly supply tanks, is considering funding other nations to do so.
I saw a quote from the Polish PM saying they'd deliver Leopards whether or not they got the green light from Germany. Similar comments from a Lithuanian minister.
Baerbock is now saying Germany won't oppose it if Poland send (German made) Leopards. Whether that's what Scholz thinks or not is hard to say.

The frustrating part is we basically all know Ukraine will get Leopards one day. So why has Scholz dragged Germany's reputation through the mud, delayed crucial aid to Ukraine and f.cked over European security coordination and defence independence from the USA?

Also it's looking more like Leclercs might get sent too - France has a couple of hundred in storage, and they are a damn good tank. A bit lighter than a Leopard, a bit heavier than a T-72, good (and as far as I'm aware NATO standard) gun, advanced armour, and a remarkably good autoloader.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:16 pm

The legal objections are one thing. But I don’t know how useful the Polish Leopards would be without active German support.

Fine if Poland has things like spare parts and technical data that would be needed by Ukraine. Could be that the tanks need software updates from the manufacturer. But if operations do depend upon German cooperation then it still has a veto in practice.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:23 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:16 pm
The legal objections are one thing. But I don’t know how useful the Polish Leopards would be without active German support.

Fine if Poland has things like spare parts and technical data that would be needed by Ukraine. Could be that the tanks need software updates from the manufacturer. But if operations do depend upon German cooperation then it still has a veto in practice.
I think the idea of sending them without consent is more of a political move, designed to push Germany into providing that consent, and also to enable training to begin. Reportedly that's happening pretty soon. If, in a couple of months time, there's several dozen Leopards pledged to Ukraine and sufficient Ukrainian tankers trained to operate them, it will be much harder politically for Germany to deny them.

Meanwhile, the first Sea King appears to be in service in Ukraine - so much for the nonsense about western air frames being too difficult/complex. With the exception of the first month or so, where the emphasis was supplying what could be used immediately and with little training, this notion that Ukraine can't cope with complex weapons is downright bigoted. It was particularly acute with HIMARS provision back in the summer. Ukraine new what they needed, the Americans dithered and delayed then finally provided a few, with more "if they could show they could use them well". Meanwhile, Ukraine had developed their own effective guided multiple launch rocket system years before and were entirely familiar with its use - sadly they only had enough ammunition stockpiled for the first few weeks of the war. The Ukrainians were right, of course, and HIMARS/GMLRS were game changers. A lot of Ukrainians died and Severodonetsk and Lysychansk were lost while the Americans were holding back what was needed.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:55 pm

I wonder if Germany actually wants Poland to send Leopards without its permission, so that the Russians can tell the world its "no better than a T-72" and then the Germans will feel more comfortable to sign the re-export docs...
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jan 22, 2023 11:26 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:55 pm
I wonder if Germany actually wants Poland to send Leopards without its permission, so that the Russians can tell the world its "no better than a T-72" and then the Germans will feel more comfortable to sign the re-export docs...
The Russians have already said that, though...not got sources to hand, but there's been a bunch of comments like that lately from Russian state propagandists, because of course they can't admit it would make a difference, as that would mean they'd have to follow through on their threats, and of course they can't do that due to being rather weak compared to NATO.


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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:12 am

Russian colonel disses not Russian kit. News at 10!

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