The Invasion of Ukraine

[Bird on a Fire]

Yes, I agree. It's looking very dicey indeed.

I tried consoling myself with the idea that, in an age where your every move is visible in every home via satellite images, you'd have to put a huge amount of work into a convincing bluff. I reckon Putin is savvy enough that if he were bluffing it'd look exactly like this.

But it's not clear what the point would be, versus actually invading which has obvious benefits.

[Bird on a Fire]

NATO countries who buy huge amounts of Russian gas and are currently building new pipelines for it are gonna have a huge amount of egg on their face for part funding this.

Green crap would be much better geopolitically.

[Trinucleus]

Presumably Putin's political aim is to install a Lukashenko-like regime in Kyiv and it's a question of how much money, blood, and international credibility he is prepared to expend to do it.

He'd like that but I don't think its a realistic war aim. The Ukrainians violently expelled a pro-Moscow stooge in 2014. If Putin wants a another proxy back in power in Kyiv he's going to have to indefinitely occupy Ukraine. That would take hundreds of thousands of troops which Russia needs for other roles, like protecting Putin.

IMHO Putin's aim is to use the threat of war to decouple Ukraine from the EU, NATO and the rest of the western world. Its not a member of either organization, but it has close links with them and member states which are deepening. If that happened Ukraine could then be a permanent buffer state. Not part of Russia, but rejected by the West.

But threats haven't worked. So Putin now faces a choice between a humiliating climbdown and withdrawal, or some kind of military action which he can use to portray a victory. That might not sound too bad, but military adventures have a habit of escalating, and short term measures can become permanent.

Not forgetting that the USA have always been completely relaxed about a communist regime in Cuba....

[Woodchopper]

Presumably Putin's political aim is to install a Lukashenko-like regime in Kyiv and it's a question of how much money, blood, and international credibility he is prepared to expend to do it.

He'd like that but I don't think its a realistic war aim. The Ukrainians violently expelled a pro-Moscow stooge in 2014. If Putin wants a another proxy back in power in Kyiv he's going to have to indefinitely occupy Ukraine. That would take hundreds of thousands of troops which Russia needs for other roles, like protecting Putin.

IMHO Putin's aim is to use the threat of war to decouple Ukraine from the EU, NATO and the rest of the western world. Its not a member of either organization, but it has close links with them and member states which are deepening. If that happened Ukraine could then be a permanent buffer state. Not part of Russia, but rejected by the West.

But threats haven't worked. So Putin now faces a choice between a humiliating climbdown and withdrawal, or some kind of military action which he can use to portray a victory. That might not sound too bad, but military adventures have a habit of escalating, and short term measures can become permanent.

Not forgetting that the USA have always been completely relaxed about a communist regime in Cuba....

Which is of course true. Though it’s attempt at proxy invasion was about 60 years ago. There’s much more recent examples of the US aggressively using military force. Though they are probably best discussed in another thread.

[El Pollo Diablo]

NATO countries who buy huge amounts of Russian gas and are currently building new pipelines for it are gonna have a huge amount of egg on their face for part funding this.

Green crap would be much better geopolitically.

Yes, it's mystifying that they haven't cottoned onto this. Or, if they have, that it took so long.

[Woodchopper]

NATO countries who buy huge amounts of Russian gas and are currently building new pipelines for it are gonna have a huge amount of egg on their face for part funding this.

Green crap would be much better geopolitically.

Yes, it's mystifying that they haven't cottoned onto this. Or, if they have, that it took so long.

The problems of reliance upon Russian gas supplies have been discussed for decades.

The problem is that some of the alternatives aren't acceptable. There's ample coal in Europe and oil can be sourced from international markets. But they emit too much carbon. With the exception of France, nuclear power tends to be unpopular and its difficult to get political support for major construction of new power plants. Europe has developed alternative sources of gas, both in the form of more LNG terminals, and pipelines from elsewhere (eg Algeria, Norway). But the capacity of these alternates are limited.

That leaves renewables, and there there has been a lot of progress. As far as I remember over the past decade the proportion of energy supplied by renewables has about doubled in key markets like Germany, France or Italy. But it takes time and a lot of money to build the infrastructure. Money is a particular problem in former soviet states that inherited an almost complete reliance upon Russian gas supplies and which have much lower GDPs than the EU average. Being mostly flat and northern, places like Lithuania also lack an environment suitable for solar in the winter or hydropower. There is also the problem of whether renewables can be relied upon to supply enough power at periods of peak demand (eg for a week in January when its -10 in central Europe and there is very little wind).

[Woodchopper]

As he meets with his foreign and defence ministers, Putin certainly gives the impression that he's personally isolated and so prone to making reckless decisions. Could all be theater though.
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1 ... 3279764482
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/14 ... 0017513479

[El Pollo Diablo]

That table would be ace for a model railway

[dyqik]

That table would be ace for a model railway

Narrative convention requires that it be used to carry the condiments between the couple sitting at opposite ends of the table for dinner.

[Woodchopper]

That table would be ace for a model railway

Narrative convention requires that it be used to carry the condiments between the couple sitting at opposite ends of the table for dinner.

A vial of nerve agent might be more Putin's style.

[Gfamily]

As he meets with his foreign and defence ministers, Putin certainly gives the impression that he's personally isolated and so prone to making reckless decisions. Could all be theater though.
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1 ... 3279764482
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/14 ... 0017513479

Is it just me, or is he looking a bit puffy around the face, as though he's on steroids?

Putin.jpg (10.06 KiB) Viewed 10057 times

[lpm]

That's fillers.

And a shed load of botox.

Bags under the eyes have been done, hard to tell what other surgery he's had. Possibly also tightening of the jowls but the neck's not visible on that photo..

[dyqik]

That table would be ace for a model railway

Narrative convention requires that it be used to carry the condiments between the couple sitting at opposite ends of the table for dinner.

A vial of nerve agent might be more Putin's style.

Mmmmm, spicy.

[Sciolus]

With the exception of France, nuclear power tends to be unpopular and its difficult to get political support for major construction of new power plants.

Especially in countries prone to tsunamis such as Germany.

[sTeamTraen]

Is it just me, or is he looking a bit puffy around the face, as though he's on steroids?

I've always thought he looked a bit like a mash-up of Nasser Hussain and Richard Jupp (former drummer of Elbow). With this look he had added elements of Clive Anderson and perhaps just a touch of Gordon Brown.

[sTeamTraen]

That table would be ace for a model railway

Narrative convention requires that it be used to carry the condiments between the couple sitting at opposite ends of the table for dinner.

I ate at a restaurant in Germany once where a model train brought the food to your table. It was extremely impressive.

[lpm]

Jeez. Russia made a statement they're pulling some forces back.

And people believe it. Markets are acting like it's peace in our time.

You need at least some element of surprise for an invasion. Pull back some troops you weren't using in the first wave anyway, attack a few hours later?

[Bird on a Fire]

It could all still be an elaborate prank. Perhaps he watched Jackass Forever and was inspired.

What are the chances NATO will give him what he's after? They've made a lot of statements to the effect that they're peeing their pants, and really all they have to do is say "Nah you're right mate, Ukraine is never joining our club."

[lpm]

There could be a delinked quid pro quo - pull back from the brink and in a completely unrelated decision in 6 months we'll reduce sanctions on your personal wealth.

[Bird on a Fire]

- Nord Stream 2 to go ahead with plans for Nord Stream 3 and generous prices guaranteed in writing
- Plans to rewrite financial secrecy laws revised, so that they don't negatively affect regime-approved oligarchs
- Guarantee that Ukraine won't be formally joining NATO or the EU

There's everything to play for.

[TopBadger]

Jeez. Russia made a statement they're pulling some forces back.

And people believe it. Markets are acting like it's peace in our time.

You need at least some element of surprise for an invasion. Pull back some troops you weren't using in the first wave anyway, attack a few hours later?

Markets are sometimes stupid, and over react. You can bet Ukraine's forces won't be standing down anytime soon.

[FlammableFlower]

Part of me was wondering what the effect of having thousands of soldiers together during a pandemic might be, especially considering Russia's extremely high (and under-reported) rates.

[Woodchopper]

It could all still be an elaborate prank. Perhaps he watched Jackass Forever and was inspired.

What are the chances NATO will give him what he's after? They've made a lot of statements to the effect that they're peeing their pants, and really all they have to do is say "Nah you're right mate, Ukraine is never joining our club."

Russia's demands are much more extensive. The Russian Foreign Ministry published a draft treaty in December. Some of the articles are reasonable and worth discussing, eg better consultation and arms control.

But Russia also wants:

- An end to deployments in Europe of troops or equipment to any state to which there were not deployments in 1997. That convoluted language rules out deployments to all NATO members that joined after the end of the Cold War, future members, and any third country which may face security threats (eg Finland). Future deployments in crises could only occur with Russia's permission.

- No NATO "military activities on the territory of Ukraine as well as other States in the Eastern Europe, in the South Caucasus and in Central Asia". That would presumably include training and exercises. The reference to states in Eastern Europe presumably covers places like Poland, Estonia or Bulgaria.

- No further NATO expansion, that covers Ukraine, but would also prevent states like Sweden or Finland joining (there has been much debate about that in both).

Those demands just aren't going to happen. In military terms Russia is demanding that NATO withdraw all forces from the entire post-Soviet sphere. Given Russia's propensity to invade its neighbors or threaten to do so, all the post Soviet states would become a Russian sphere of influence. Leaving aside the opposition from the US, there's no way that NATO members like Lithuania or Poland would agree.

It will though be very good if Putin can be mollified with better consultation mechanisms and arms control negotiations.

[Woodchopper]

Jeez. Russia made a statement they're pulling some forces back.

And people believe it. Markets are acting like it's peace in our time.

You need at least some element of surprise for an invasion. Pull back some troops you weren't using in the first wave anyway, attack a few hours later?

I doubt that the announcement will lead to anyone standing down.

I hope very much that it means that Putin has blinked. But we'll have to wait and see. Russia won't be able to keep its forces deployed indefinitely (for example sooner or later machinery needs proper maintenance that can't be done in a field by the border). But Russia will be able to keep up the pressure for weeks or even a few months.

[tom p]

That's fillers.

And a shed load of botox.

Bags under the eyes have been done, hard to tell what other surgery he's had. Possibly also tightening of the jowls but the neck's not visible on that photo..

Naah, he just looks like an ageing russian who is putting on weight