The Invasion of Ukraine

[bjn]

to;dr for the last two posts:
Republicans might block additional aid for Ukraine by the beginning of October.

Stupid a..eholes.

Alot of what has been sent is old inventory that was sitting there that was waiting to be scrapped, and what little they've given has managed to bleed white a main geo political rival to the US. Compare to what they spent in Afghanistan or Iraq, it's a pittance.

[Martin Y]

"You know, none of us want another 20 year war."

Could have had a two year war. Best hope now is three or four.

[dyqik]

to;dr for the last two posts:
Republicans might block additional aid for Ukraine by the beginning of October.

Stupid a..eholes.

The stupid a..holes (one lead one, and rest letting him) are also blocking all military promotions that need Senate approval. This includes the most senior military officer, who has to retire by law on Sept 30th, and be replaced.

So this has absolutely nothing to do with US military readiness.

One theory is that this is being done so that Trump can appoint the entire senior military when he wins* in 2024.

[headshot]

to;dr for the last two posts:
Republicans might block additional aid for Ukraine by the beginning of October.

Stupid a..eholes.

The stupid a..holes (one lead one, and rest letting him) are also blocking all military promotions that need Senate approval. This includes the most senior military officer, who has to retire by law on Sept 30th, and be replaced.

So this has absolutely nothing to do with US military readiness.

One theory is that this is being done so that Trump can appoint the entire senior military when he wins* in 2024.

Time to ditch the filibuster and make sweeping changes to sh.t like this.

[FlammableFlower]

Can't quite get my head around the mindset that produces this: https://twitter.com/Anri__Tina/status/1 ... 9425914107

It's apparently a recruitment ad for the Russian Army, in which two soldiers are chatting in a trench between firing off occasional shots:

The first one asks the other: 'Do you know Pecherski Pagorby in Kiev'?
2nd: Its a cool area, my aunt lives there, why?
1: I have a dream to buy an apartment there. The war will finish, we'll take Kyiv and I will move there with my family
Tagline: Choose your dream city - military service by contract
Finally: And me, I will move to Odessa, I love the sea.

Horrendous.

[Grumble]

But Putin said: Russia has never been a coloniser.

[jimbob]

Evidence has emerged in russian government documents to confirm Ukrainian reports of russia's staggering losses in the war, which now stand at 273,460 killed russia's labour and social development ministry has ordered 259,493 death certificates since the all-out war's start, according to tender documents discovered by independent russia media Verstka The discrepancy with Ukraine's higher figure can be accounted for by the fact that until June, russia only provided death certificates to families of deceased regular army personnel About 20,000 Wagner mercenaries are thought to have been killed in the war - virtually all in fighting before June "The numbers may indirectly indicate the approximate scale of the russian group participating in the battles and losses," Verstka reports The same ministry also ordered over 936,000 combat veteran certificates - a figure that coincides with Ukrainian and other figures for the number of starting and newly recruited troops russia has deployed to Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022 An amalgam of Ukrainian, Western and independent russian data suggests... About 2.4 russian troops are wounded for each soldier killed in the war (a rate much lower, for example, than the U.S. WWII wounded-to-killed rate of 4-to-1 - owing to poor russian combat medicine) 60% of russian wounded - or about This leaves just over 400,000 russian troops deployed in Ukraine - almost perfectly coinciding with Ukrainian figures

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9 ... llery-fire

[IvanV]

But Putin said: Russia has never been a coloniser.

Just like China. In the vocabulary of such countries, each claims a historical right to encompass its sphere of influence. They apply the non-rascist policy of allowing the freedom of movement of individuals to live where they like within that broad state. And out of concern for backward regions, like Siberia, the Arctic, Tibet and Xinjiang, give incentives to facilitate their economic development and growth. A process completely unlike the imperialism of other countries.

I was shocked when Douglas Hurd said he agreed with the Chinese when they claimed Tibet was part of China's historical sphere of influence.

[Grumble]

But Putin said: Russia has never been a coloniser.

Just like China. In the vocabulary of such countries, each claims a historical right to encompass its sphere of influence. They apply the non-rascist policy of allowing the freedom of movement of individuals to live where they like within that broad state. And out of concern for backward regions, like Siberia, the Arctic, Tibet and Xinjiang, give incentives to facilitate their economic development and growth. A process completely unlike the imperialism of other countries.

I was shocked when Douglas Hurd said he agreed with the Chinese when they claimed Tibet was part of China's historical sphere of influence.

By the logic of Tibet, conquered by Kublai Khan, Siberia is also within China’s historic sphere of influence. And a few other places besides.

[Martin Y]

... About 2.4 russian troops are wounded for each soldier killed in the war (a rate much lower, for example, than the U.S. WWII wounded-to-killed rate of 4-to-1 - owing to poor russian combat medicine)

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9 ... llery-fire

That's pretty horrifying.
US in WW2: 20% of casualties die.
Russia in Ukraine now: 30% of casualties die.

We got used to the idea that combat medicine, evacuation and treatment had become so well developed that troops could expect to survive severe injuries which would have been hopeless cases in previous wars.

I guess outcomes depend on the priorities of those in charge. When your priorities are mansions and yachts your troops are going to get sub-optimal outcomes.

[jimbob]

... About 2.4 russian troops are wounded for each soldier killed in the war (a rate much lower, for example, than the U.S. WWII wounded-to-killed rate of 4-to-1 - owing to poor russian combat medicine)

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9 ... llery-fire

That's pretty horrifying.
US in WW2: 20% of casualties die.
Russia in Ukraine now: 30% of casualties die.

We got used to the idea that combat medicine, evacuation and treatment had become so well developed that troops could expect to survive severe injuries which would have been hopeless cases in previous wars.

I guess outcomes depend on the priorities of those in charge. When your priorities are mansions and yachts your troops are going to get sub-optimal outcomes.

The numbers are also.

Wikipedia suggests that the US lost fewer troops in the European theatre of WWII from Operation Husky to the end of the European war, and with a similar population in 1941 to Russia in 2021.

[Woodchopper]

Poland says it will no longer supply Ukraine with weapons

Warsaw says it is ending its supply of weapons to Ukraine amid a dispute about a grain import ban with Kyiv.

https://www.dw.com/en/poland-says-it-wi ... a-66879743

[Allo V Psycho]

Poland says it will no longer supply Ukraine with weapons

Warsaw says it is ending its supply of weapons to Ukraine amid a dispute about a grain import ban with Kyiv.

https://www.dw.com/en/poland-says-it-wi ... a-66879743

Poland is coming up to an election (15th October), and the ruling right wing PiS party (slightly ahead in the polls) depends heavily on the support of agricultural and Catholic areas in the east of the country. Only Warsaw and Łódź in the east have significant support for the opposition, otherwise there is pretty much a sharp line down the middle of the country. The Government is already busily handing out what the Poles call 'election sausage', particularly around housing, so probably PiS are playing to their natural support, at least until after the election. Mind you, loathsome as PiS are, there is a reasonable point here: concern in eastern Poland about the impact of Ukrainian grain being sold at very low prices (because that's better than not selling it at all, presumably), and the impact on local farmers, is genuine. If the West could support the transit of Ukrainian grain to the rest of the world, rather than it staying in Poland, that would be helpful, but I have no idea if that is possible.
Poles are unlikely to stop detesting the Russians in the longer term.

[EACLucifer]

Poland says it will no longer supply Ukraine with weapons

Warsaw says it is ending its supply of weapons to Ukraine amid a dispute about a grain import ban with Kyiv.

https://www.dw.com/en/poland-says-it-wi ... a-66879743

And yet most Polish commentators I've seen are saying this is badly misreported. Poland will continue to supply arms under existing contracts, but for the moment can't supply more ex-Soviet stuff due to having run out of it, but that might change as more backfill comes from USA and South Korea.

[Woodchopper]

Poland says it will no longer supply Ukraine with weapons

Warsaw says it is ending its supply of weapons to Ukraine amid a dispute about a grain import ban with Kyiv.

https://www.dw.com/en/poland-says-it-wi ... a-66879743

And yet most Polish commentators I've seen are saying this is badly misreported. Poland will continue to supply arms under existing contracts, but for the moment can't supply more ex-Soviet stuff due to having run out of it, but that might change as more backfill comes from USA and South Korea.

Those points seem to be reflected in the article.

[Grumble]

British and French defence ministers and Sec Gen of NATO all in Kyiv today. What will be announced? Ability to strike targets outside of Ukrainian borders?

[dyqik]

Kazakhstan has said that it's joining the sanctions regime on Russia. That's potentially a very big deal, as Russia's space launch facility is at Baikonur in Kazakhstan.

https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1707372 ... 31718?s=20

[Grumble]

Kazakhstan has said that it's joining the sanctions regime on Russia. That's potentially a very big deal, as Russia's space launch facility is at Baikonur in Kazakhstan.

https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1707372 ... 31718?s=20

I don’t think space is covered by sanctions? It would be awkward as we still use Russia for the ISS, as evidenced this week.

[Woodchopper]

As far as I can tell, the US avoided a government shutdown with a 45 day finance bill. But due to republican opposition funding for Ukraine has been removed.

A 45 day budget gap probably won’t be a major problem for Ukraine. But obviously it would be much more serious if this continues. I don’t know whether financing of some new assistance may still be possible within funded DoD or presidential budget lines.

A negative consequence is that Putin will see this as a sign that if Russia keeps fighting for long enough the US will stop supporting Ukraine.

ETA reported here that

Sen. Michael F. Bennet (D-Colo.) held up the spending bill for several hours on Saturday evening until he was able to secure a promise from congressional leaders that they would soon try approving aid for Ukraine.

And that Republicans in the Senate are willing to support 6 billion in aid. That’s about a tenth of what has been provided so far by the US.

[EACLucifer]

As far as I can tell, the US avoided a government shutdown with a 45 day finance bill. But due to republican opposition funding for Ukraine has been removed.

A 45 day budget gap probably won’t be a major problem for Ukraine. But obviously it would be much more serious if this continues. I don’t know whether financing of some new assistance may still be possible within funded DoD or presidential budget lines.

A negative consequence is that Putin will see this as a sign that if Russia keeps fighting for long enough the US will stop supporting Ukraine.

ETA reported here that

Sen. Michael F. Bennet (D-Colo.) held up the spending bill for several hours on Saturday evening until he was able to secure a promise from congressional leaders that they would soon try approving aid for Ukraine.

And that Republicans in the Senate are willing to support 6 billion in aid. That’s about a tenth of what has been provided so far by the US.

This applies to USAI, as far as I'm aware, and not to presidential drawdown, which is what covers urgent transfers from existing stocks. A shutdown would have utterly buggered US procurement, doing far more damage to supplies to Ukraine as it would have interfered with things like ramping up shell production. Per John Ridge, about half the USAI appropriations haven't even been spent yet, so the delay caused by moving the funding into a separate bill won't have any effect on provision of aid.

[shpalman]

Well, Slovakia has taken a step backwards.

[EACLucifer]

Doesn't seem to have got much attention, but quietly, civilian cargo ships are returning to Odesa, this time without a "grain deal" with the Russians. Ukraine's victories over the Black Sea Fleet are enabling the export of much needed food for the world, though Russian missile attacks have destroyed enough food to feed millions for a year so far this year.

[IvanV]

Well, Slovakia has taken a step backwards.

It is leaning that way, but not yet definitively taken the step. Fico's party Smer won the largest share of the vote, but that's only 24%, and they need coalition partners. Given the very grubby circumstances of how they were forced out of power in 2018, I would hope they are still seen as sufficiently politically toxic they won't get enough to form a government. The large difference between exit polls and the result suggests, in the kindest interpretation, that many people were embarrassed to admit voting for them.

[Woodchopper]

Well, Slovakia has taken a step backwards.

It is leaning that way, but not yet definitively taken the step. Fico's party Smer won the largest share of the vote, but that's only 24%, and they need coalition partners. Given the very grubby circumstances of how they were forced out of power in 2018, I would hope they are still seen as sufficiently politically toxic they won't get enough to form a government.

In addition, we'll have to see what any cut off could mean in practice. As far as I know Slovakian supplies to Ukraine are compensated, either financially or with contracts for transfers of more modern equipment from Germany. Slovakia is getting a good deal, is it really going to cancel existing contracts? In addition, Slovakian industry is part of the EU funded industrial policy to boost ammunition production. Is it going to withdraw from that too?

The large difference between exit polls and the result suggests, in the kindest interpretation, that many people were embarrassed to admit voting for them.

Unkind interpretations are electoral fraud or flaws in the exit polling.

[jimbob]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/th ... 023-10-03/

'They're just meat': Russia deploys punishment battalions in echo of Stalin
Reuters
October 3, 20236:05 AM GMT+1