The Invasion of Ukraine

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jimbob
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Thu Jun 02, 2022 12:34 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Jun 02, 2022 12:30 pm
bjn wrote:
Thu Jun 02, 2022 12:27 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Jun 02, 2022 12:21 pm
Yes, thanks from me too.

So, um, why hasn't the Ukrainian government told the Ukrainian company to stop delivering Russian oil? Seems odd that they're just merrily pumping away, earning money for the Kremlin.
Possibly because they get transit fees at the same time?
But still. It's Russia's main source of income to fund the war. Ukraine keeps requesting other countries stop buying it. But they're distributing it?

Did the Allies help the Nazis bring goods to market?

Fossil capitalism seems to give everyone brainworms.
I'm guessing it's so they don't antagonize the customers in the EU who are also supplying them with weapons.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:31 pm

Must be a tricky calculation.

Value of weapons from Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia versus value of 750,000+ barrels of oil per day.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by dyqik » Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:45 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:31 pm
Must be a tricky calculation.

Value of weapons from Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia versus value of 750,000+ barrels of oil per day.
With the financial sanctions on Russia, and Russia's response to those sanctions, I'm not exactly sure if the payments for the oil are going to places accessible to the Russian government right now, or are being held in escrow or similar outside of Russia until sanctions are lifted.

Even if the payments are going the Russian oil companies, the economic crisis in Russia may mean that the payments aren't particularly useful to the Russian war effort right now - either because the profits of the oil companies are down, because the rubles being extracted aren't worth much and can't be spent internationally, or because the pay offs to oligarchs aren't as effective.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by tom p » Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:14 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Jun 02, 2022 12:30 pm
bjn wrote:
Thu Jun 02, 2022 12:27 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Jun 02, 2022 12:21 pm
Yes, thanks from me too.

So, um, why hasn't the Ukrainian government told the Ukrainian company to stop delivering Russian oil? Seems odd that they're just merrily pumping away, earning money for the Kremlin.
Possibly because they get transit fees at the same time?
But still. It's Russia's main source of income to fund the war. Ukraine keeps requesting other countries stop buying it. But they're distributing it?

Did the Allies help the Nazis bring goods to market?

Fossil capitalism seems to give everyone brainworms.
I can't remember where I read it, but there was some trade between the allies and the nazis via Switzerland. Can't remember where I read it or what it was for.
Also, if memory serves, Fanta was created by coca Cola Germany 'cos they couldn't get the Coke syrup, but were still allowed to operate in nazi Germany during the war.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jdc » Thu Jun 02, 2022 5:53 pm

tom p wrote:
Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:14 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Thu Jun 02, 2022 12:30 pm
bjn wrote:
Thu Jun 02, 2022 12:27 pm


Possibly because they get transit fees at the same time?
But still. It's Russia's main source of income to fund the war. Ukraine keeps requesting other countries stop buying it. But they're distributing it?

Did the Allies help the Nazis bring goods to market?

Fossil capitalism seems to give everyone brainworms.
I can't remember where I read it, but there was some trade between the allies and the nazis via Switzerland. Can't remember where I read it or what it was for.
Also, if memory serves, Fanta was created by coca Cola Germany 'cos they couldn't get the Coke syrup, but were still allowed to operate in nazi Germany during the war.
I read in McMafia that the 1991 UN arms embargo led to weapons smuggling to Croatia in 91 then Bosnia from 92 (accompanied by drugs once the smuggling routes had been established). 1992 UN economic sanctions led to oil smuggling to Serbia. Apparently Serbia allowed arms to be smuggled through their territory to their enemies, while Croats and Bosnians sold oil to Serbs. It seems to have been a joint enterprise between state & gangster in each country with the profits being shared.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Jun 02, 2022 7:48 pm

Putin’s D.C. Waiting Game
Right now, America’s support of Ukraine remains a bipartisan issue. But below the surface, an ebbing of financial support may be coming into sight.
https://puck.news/putins-d-c-waiting-ga ... 0puck.news

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Sat Jun 04, 2022 7:48 pm

The Estonian coalition has collapsed, due to the PM's unhappiness at the junior party's cosy approach to Putin.

“'The security situation in Europe does not give me any opportunity to continue co-operating with the Centre party, which is unable to put Estonia’s interests above those of the party,' said Kallas, adding that Centre was 'actively working against Estonia’s core values'."
https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/sta ... ZVMh-CGB4Q
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jun 07, 2022 10:52 am

Russian advances have made it “very, very difficult” for Ukraine to win its war with Moscow, according to one of Kyiv’s top security officials who said the country was prepared for prolonged resistance.

Oleksiy Danilov, chief of the national security council, told the Financial Times that Ukraine could win “because we are fighting for our freedom”. But he said a drawn-out war to drive out Russia’s invading army could only succeed if western countries accelerated supplies of advanced weapons.

Confidence that Ukraine could inflict further defeats on Russia after President Vladimir Putin’s forces retreated from most of the north and east of the country has given way to a dour mood in Kyiv as momentum has slowly swung back Russia’s way.

[…]

Ukraine also faces deep economic challenges after Russian missile strikes destroyed the country’s main oil refinery and depots, causing nationwide fuel shortages.

Electricity supplies are threatened after Russia occupied regions with most of the country’s coal mines and seized control of one of Ukraine’s four nuclear power stations.

“Many factories and enterprises have stopped their production processes and cycles due to the fact that the Russian Federation today occupies about 20 per cent of our territory,” Danilov said, saying Ukraine’s only option was to outlast Russia.

“How long can Ukraine stay in this state? I can say long, very long. Although it will be very, very difficult for us,” he said.

Danilov said that in Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk “there is an advantage of the enemy in artillery . . . They pound there, pound and pound.

“Unfortunately, we cannot now adequately respond in the same way, given that the weapons that we sorely need are lacking today.”

He said Ukrainian forces could make a further retreat from Sievierodonetsk and other towns in the region while they regroup.

“The temporary loss of territories is not a tragedy. The tragedy will be the loss of the country,” Danilov said in an interview.

Danilov said he was confident the western weapons needed to launch a counter attack “will definitely arrive”, adding he was “more than confident that we will regain our territories”.

[…]

But the speed and scale of weapons deliveries has frustrated some in Kyiv, where President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine’s troops are outgunned 20 to one by Russian artillery and are dying at a rate of up to 100 a day, with 400 wounded.

Ukraine needs to form six new brigades of 25,000 men for a counter-offensive to reclaim territory held by Russia in the east and south, including hundreds of rocket launchers and artillery, planes and tanks as well as thousands of drones, another adviser to Ukraine’s government on security matters said.

The MLRS systems from the US also come with limited ammunition and can only fire at an 80km range rather than the 300km range Ukraine wants to hit Russia’s supply lines.

Danilov said western supplies had already played a crucial role in holding back Russia’s initial blitzkrieg.

He expressed confidence that the inflow of longer range and heavier calibre weaponry “will continue . . . until we defeat Russia” and said Ukraine’s continued defiance had “broken” concerns in western capitals about providing more powerful arms.

Russia’s apparent willingness to sacrifice its own troops for minor territorial gains, however, has made it more difficult for Ukraine’s forces to hold out, he added.

“Russia is a big country in size and it has a lot of this cannon fodder that they send here. And this process, it can’t be very fast,” Danilov said.
https://www.ft.com/content/cf4ebab0-419 ... pe=nongift

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 08, 2022 4:55 am

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a stalemate in the war with Russia was “not an option for us” as he once more appealed for western military support to restore his country’s territorial integrity.

“We are inferior in terms of equipment and therefore we are not capable of advancing,” he said. “We are going to suffer more losses and people are my priority.”

Speaking to Financial Times editor Roula Khalaf at the FT’s Global Boardroom conference on Tuesday, Zelenskyy said pushing Russian forces back to positions occupied before the February 24 invasion would amount to a “serious temporary victory” for Ukraine but full sovereignty over its territory remained his ultimate goal.

[…]
Zelenskyy said that while some western sanctions had already dealt a severe blow to the Russian economy, they “have not really influenced the Russian position”. Moscow was constantly finding ways to circumvent sanctions, he added.

He also suggested that some western governments were already tiring of the economic fallout from sanctions on Russia and were looking for ways to soften the impact to protect their own commercial interests.

“Everyone is acting like a cipher. They are supporting Ukraine but also checking what can be done to weaken sanctions so business doesn’t suffer,” Zelenskyy said.

https://www.ft.com/content/37d511b4-a12 ... 0e3744a0d5

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jun 08, 2022 8:07 am

I thought Russia wouldn't be able to keep this up much longer because they're running out of troops and equipment?
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 08, 2022 8:34 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jun 08, 2022 8:07 am
I thought Russia wouldn't be able to keep this up much longer because they're running out of troops and equipment?
Big difference between defence and attack. Attackers need a large numerical advantage over the defenders. People often cite 3 to 1, but that's just a convenient rule of thumb rather than a law. Attackers also need mobile heavy weapons to be able to move into captured territory and hold it.

Russia is running out of tanks and men needed to mount effective attacks (except on a small area of the front).

However, Russia still has ample troops and artillery to defend its positions. Ukraine lacks the numerical advantage to be able to successfully attack Russia (except on a small area of the front).

So we get a stalemate.

Breaking it will require that one side or other dramatically improves its capability (as Croatia did before Operation Storm in 1995). Ukraine could do that with increased arms donations from its allies and time to train many more troops. Russia could do that if it can mobilize its population and industrial resources, and get components from abroad) start producing lots of new tanks and other equipment.

In the long run both Russia and Ukraine are hurting economically, but Ukraine far more than Russia. Many of Ukraine's cities have been destroyed and its land ravaged.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jun 08, 2022 8:59 am

Fair dos. Makes the West's continued financial support of this barbarity even more frustrating.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by TopBadger » Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:40 am

Also note the 3-to-1 rule of thumb is largely for conventional field based assaults. Once you get into urban areas that ratio could climb to 6-to 1 or 9-to-1.

I think EACL was right on other thread... longer range weapons are required to be able to hit supplies as soon as they cross the boarder. Those Russians need to be starved into falling back. It was premature of the US to rule them out.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Jun 08, 2022 11:50 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Wed Jun 08, 2022 8:07 am
I thought Russia wouldn't be able to keep this up much longer because they're running out of troops and equipment?
To an extent, that is beginning to make a difference. Compare and contrast the speed of the initial Russian invasion, which took a few days to reach the Kyiv outskirts and rapidly advanced across the South to capture Kherson and Melitopol and surround Mariupol with the much slower breakouts from Izium and Popasna.

Russia are fighting in some ways like an army short of troops, and this is stopping them exploiting the breakthroughs their artillery can create. They are short of armoured vehicles, too, thus sending in ancient T-62s. There's some reports of them thinning their occupation around Melitopol to strengthen the southern front around Kherson, where Ukraine is counter-attacking.

However, they are not short of artillery, and on the Donbass front, they have much easier supply lines than they did around Kyiv. That enables them to bring up sufficient munitions to conduct WWI style bombardments to simply batter their way through the lines. There are three main ways to counter to this, the first being to destroy the Russian artillery, and the second being to starve it of supplies. Given the terrain and situation in the Donbass, both of those rely on long range firepower. The third approach is audacious, and only possible in some situations, and that is to get in so close with the Russian front line that the Russian artillery cannot fire on the Ukrainian positions for fear of hitting their own positions, especially with inaccurate rocket artillery. This appears to be what Ukraine has done with the counterattack in Sieverodonetsk, using tactics reminiscent of those Chuikov used at Stalingrad, but it probably isn't viable long term, and it is quite like the Ukrainian counterattack at Sieverodonetsk was a spoiling attack, designed to inflict casualties and disrupt Russian plans.

In short, we can see the effects of attrition on the Russians as they are not able to manoeuvre as freely as they did in February and March, and are not able to follow up successes as well, but they are still well supplied with artillery and the balance of artillery is the most important factor in the current Donbass battles.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has the advantage in number of people willing to fight, but they need to be armed, and they need to be armed with heavy arms - tanks and artillery - not just rifles and anti-tank launchers.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 08, 2022 5:34 pm

EACLucifer wrote: Ukraine, meanwhile, has the advantage in number of people willing to fight, but they need to be armed, and they need to be armed with heavy arms - tanks and artillery - not just rifles and anti-tank launchers.
Certainly, but here we’re getting back to the limited equipment in European armies.

For example the French CESAR and Swedish Archer are very capable long range artillery. But before donating some to Ukraine France only had 77, and Sweden only has 48 Archers.

The US of course has lots more. But then Ukraine is relying even more on one benefactor.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:00 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:40 am
Also note the 3-to-1 rule of thumb is largely for conventional field based assaults. Once you get into urban areas that ratio could climb to 6-to 1 or 9-to-1.
Certainly.
In areas where battles have been the most intense, Russia has had, by his count, a five-to-one manpower advantage. Tarnavsky also estimated that Russia has an advantage of up to seven-to-one in artillery batteries and a similarly large stockpile of munitions. As a result, Russian forces can rely on wave after wave of indiscriminate fire from large-calibre artillery, along with missile and air strikes, to soften Ukraine’s defenses, inflicting large casualties before they advance.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch ... rn-ukraine

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Jun 09, 2022 6:25 pm

In case there was any doubt that the invasion was motivated by imperialism.
Russian President Vladimir Putin paid tribute on Thursday to Tsar Peter the Great on the 350th anniversary of his birth, drawing a parallel between what he portrayed as their twin historic quests to win back Russian lands.

"Peter the Great waged the Great Northern War for 21 years. It would seem that he was at war with Sweden, he took something from them. He did not take anything from them, he returned (what was Russia's)," Putin said after a visiting an exhibition dedicated to the tsar.

In televised comments on day 106 of his war in Ukraine, he compared Peter's campaign with the task facing Russia today.

"Apparently, it also fell to us to return (what is Russia's) and strengthen (the country). And if we proceed from the fact that these basic values form the basis of our existence, we will certainly succeed in solving the tasks that we face."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ha ... 022-06-09/

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by headshot » Thu Jun 09, 2022 9:59 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Jun 09, 2022 6:25 pm
In case there was any doubt that the invasion was motivated by imperialism.
Russian President Vladimir Putin paid tribute on Thursday to Tsar Peter the Great on the 350th anniversary of his birth, drawing a parallel between what he portrayed as their twin historic quests to win back Russian lands.

"Peter the Great waged the Great Northern War for 21 years. It would seem that he was at war with Sweden, he took something from them. He did not take anything from them, he returned (what was Russia's)," Putin said after a visiting an exhibition dedicated to the tsar.

In televised comments on day 106 of his war in Ukraine, he compared Peter's campaign with the task facing Russia today.

"Apparently, it also fell to us to return (what is Russia's) and strengthen (the country). And if we proceed from the fact that these basic values form the basis of our existence, we will certainly succeed in solving the tasks that we face."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ha ... 022-06-09/
I'd quite like to see Putin receive the same treatment as the last Tsar.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:17 am

Official Russian statement
President Vladimir Putin: There is no in-between, no intermediate state: either a country is #sovereign, or it is a #colony, no matter what the colonies are called. And a colony has no historical prospects.

If a country is not able to make sovereign decisions - it's a colony.
https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1 ... pmWSPQpzpg

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Jun 10, 2022 6:10 am

Apparently, when he’s on foreign trips, Putin’s aids collect his sh.t and piss. So that foreign governments can’t learn about his health.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:06 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 08, 2022 5:34 pm
EACLucifer wrote: Ukraine, meanwhile, has the advantage in number of people willing to fight, but they need to be armed, and they need to be armed with heavy arms - tanks and artillery - not just rifles and anti-tank launchers.
Certainly, but here we’re getting back to the limited equipment in European armies.

For example the French CESAR and Swedish Archer are very capable long range artillery. But before donating some to Ukraine France only had 77, and Sweden only has 48 Archers.

The US of course has lots more. But then Ukraine is relying even more on one benefactor.
Relying on one benefactor isn't necessarily a disaster, especially if that benefactor does come through, as the US has on M777s, for example.

And NATO equipment is designed to be compatible. A dozen PzH2000s, a dozen and a half CAESARs and Krabs, two dozen or so M109s - it adds up, and they can all use the same ammunition, which, unlike Ukraine's own 152mm, can be supplied by the west.

And while they need heavy arms, they don't absolutely have to be state of the art. Things like Brimstone really help, of course, but traditional artillery, especially self propelled, is also very important. There are a lot of M109s kicking around the world, including another thirty odd that Norway hasn't sent (yet), and >1000 of them in the USA alone.

The west absolutely needs to step up arms production as much as possible (and there's some evidence that this is happening, eg in Poland), but if it's the west's industrial capacity against Russia's, Russia will lose.

What Ukraine needs - urgently - is the ability to strike accurately behind Russian lines. Russia's logistics are rail bound, and if Ukraine can put those lines out of use, even temporarily and sporadically, it relieves pressure on the front line. The resumption of Russia's slow, grinding advance south of Izium appears to have been triggered by their restoration of rail routes into Izium. Even the HIMARS/M270 variants pledged can make a real difference to that, and more so if MGM-140 variants are sent.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by jimbob » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:46 am

Part of a long thread, and part of a series of threads
One such was an aspiring poet named Marina Chubkina, a 31-year-old former TV presenter and aspiring poet. She was given a rank equivalent to major general and was placed in charge of the maintenance of Russian chemical and nuclear facilities.
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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:47 pm

Germany has proposed basing most of the 3,500 extra troops it plans to contribute to Nato forces on its own soil rather than in Lithuania, significantly softening its initial backing for more foreign forces to be stationed in the Baltics to deter any potential Russian aggression.

Vilnius and other capitals on Nato’s eastern flank have in recent weeks called for an increased military presence on their territory. German chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed support earlier this month for boosting the multinational troop presence that rotates every six months in the region.

According to western officials, Berlin’s latest proposal is for a brigade to be stationed in Germany and deployed to Lithuania — where it has led the existing 1,000-strong multinational battle group since 2017 — only if needed. The force would also have a permanent headquarters in Lithuania, manned by 50-60 staff and the rest of the personnel would regularly come to the country for training, the officials said.
https://www.ft.com/content/769ff234-ea5 ... pe=nongift

The obvious flaw in that plan is that those German troops would need to get past Kaliningrad before they get to Lithuania. Which is probably why they are to be based in Germany, as they’d have to get past Kaliningrad to get back to Germany.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:45 am

Simonyan disturbingly open about the use of famine as a weapon.

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Re: The Invasion of Ukraine

Post by bjn » Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:32 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:45 am
Simonyan disturbingly open about the use of famine as a weapon.
The Russians have form for that.

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