Scrutable

jimbob wrote: ↑

Thu May 05, 2022 9:34 pm

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Thu May 05, 2022 8:57 pm

Interesting account of Russian attitudes about the war in Ukraine: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/03 ... hing-human

Interesting, depressing, but not that surprising.

The situation in Russia is genuinely like in Orwell’s 1984. I always viewed it as kind of a horror story, but now I think it’s really keenly observed and it’s all the more horrible.

Orwell was largely motivated by his dislike of Stalin, of course. The Russianness is no coincidence.

Thread on the likelihood of a coup in Russia: https://twitter.com/BenHNoble/status/15 ... AU7ssIgSKQ

tl;dr not likley.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Fri May 06, 2022 12:58 pm

Thread on the likelihood of a coup in Russia: https://twitter.com/BenHNoble/status/15 ... AU7ssIgSKQ

tl;dr not likley.

Coups are often unthinkable until the moment they happen.

If there is a coup, though, and it is successful, we won't have heard about it in advance.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Fri May 06, 2022 1:06 pm

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Fri May 06, 2022 12:58 pm

Thread on the likelihood of a coup in Russia: https://twitter.com/BenHNoble/status/15 ... AU7ssIgSKQ

tl;dr not likley.

Coups are often unthinkable until the moment they happen.

If there is a coup, though, and it is successful, we won't have heard about it in advance.

And dictators throughout history have thought that they had protected themselves against being overthrown.

I still think he'd be unlucky to get deposed, but he's far more vulnerable than in the middle of February. It's significant enough that it's now a being talked about. His purging of his lieutenants probably makes it more likely as they were probably no more corrupt or self serving than the rest, so he's increased the risk for them of not trying to depose him.

Most bizarre aspect of Russian militarism that you’ll see today: https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1 ... 147Zdon5xw

Snake Island. Project 11770 Air-Cavity Landing Craft. Bayraktar TB-2

It continues.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Sat May 07, 2022 9:02 am

Most bizarre aspect of Russian militarism that you’ll see today: https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1 ... 147Zdon5xw

I honestly assumed this was a parody when I first saw it. I have several questions about this video, but the main one is this: why are they dancing on trampolines with SVT-40 rifles?

One way of getting a work out, I guess.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Sat May 07, 2022 9:02 am

Most bizarre aspect of Russian militarism that you’ll see today: https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1 ... 147Zdon5xw

Can't listen to that at the moment but I'm imagining that's to the sound of the "badger badger badger badger" song from the 1990s or whenever.

Brightonian wrote: ↑

Sat May 07, 2022 10:45 am

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Sat May 07, 2022 9:02 am

Most bizarre aspect of Russian militarism that you’ll see today: https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1 ... 147Zdon5xw

Can't listen to that at the moment but I'm imagining that's to the sound of the "badger badger badger badger" song from the 1990s or whenever.

I was getting that New Order video to be honest (again with the sound turned off)

Consequently of course I just re-watched the True Faith video and it's as mad as ever but makes more sense than those red army aerobics.

Information on the thousands of Ukrainians (including hundred of children) who have been forcibly deported to Russia: https://twitter.com/deankirby_/status/1 ... ZlVZENvUAQ

Forcing people to move from their homes is of ciudad war crime in its self.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Sat May 07, 2022 9:02 am

Most bizarre aspect of Russian militarism that you’ll see today: https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1 ... 147Zdon5xw

Not as bizarre, but still: https://twitter.com/redlinkedin/status/ ... VQCM41m9Qg

Grumble wrote: ↑

Thu May 05, 2022 10:26 pm

jimbob wrote: ↑

Thu May 05, 2022 9:34 pm

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Thu May 05, 2022 8:57 pm

Interesting account of Russian attitudes about the war in Ukraine: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/03 ... hing-human

Interesting, depressing, but not that surprising.

The situation in Russia is genuinely like in Orwell’s 1984. I always viewed it as kind of a horror story, but now I think it’s really keenly observed and it’s all the more horrible.

I should say that the part of 1984 I didn’t realise was so well observed was the behaviour of the populace.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Sun May 08, 2022 5:11 pm

I should say that the part of 1984 I didn’t realise was so well observed was the behaviour of the populace.

When I read that article, my most persistent thought was, am I like that?

What most people* want, above all else, is a nice quiet life and being left to get on with it.** Most people know they have next to no influence on these enormous events so there is not really much value in spending a lot of time being fully-informed or doing anything individually about them, which is a pretty hopeless task anyway. I just follow orders and don't make a fuss. I know that by my behaviour I'm complicit in a variety of atrocities, from funding wars and organised crime to climate change, but I'm basically a good person and I can cope with the cognitive dissonance.

* i.e. me.

**Which is why it's all the more horrific when you're just getting on with your life quietly and suddenly you find everything and everyone around you getting bombed to bits for no reason.

Incidentally, I had a theory that part of the reason for the strong reaction to the invasion in the West was that we have recently been through a similar level of disruption to our ordinary lives due to Covid, and that may have made us more sympathetic. But then I thought of the Taliban reinvasion and all the other sh.t that's happened in the last two years that we don't care about.

tenchboy wrote: ↑

Sat May 07, 2022 11:18 am

Brightonian wrote: ↑

Sat May 07, 2022 10:45 am

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Sat May 07, 2022 9:02 am

Most bizarre aspect of Russian militarism that you’ll see today: https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1 ... 147Zdon5xw

Can't listen to that at the moment but I'm imagining that's to the sound of the "badger badger badger badger" song from the 1990s or whenever.

I was getting that New Order video to be honest (again with the sound turned off)

I was thinking "he's Arnold Arnold Arnold rimmer"

Sciolus wrote: ↑

Sun May 08, 2022 7:28 pm

Grumble wrote: ↑

Sun May 08, 2022 5:11 pm

I should say that the part of 1984 I didn’t realise was so well observed was the behaviour of the populace.

When I read that article, my most persistent thought was, am I like that?
[...]
Incidentally, I had a theory that part of the reason for the strong reaction to the invasion in the West was that we have recently been through a similar level of disruption to our ordinary lives due to Covid, and that may have made us more sympathetic. But then I thought of the Taliban reinvasion and all the other sh.t that's happened in the last two years that we don't care about.

I had some thoughts in a similar vein. First, that maybe Putin picked now, as we're emerging from the shadow of Covid, to act because he thought that the West would have some sort of 'omg, it's the end of the world' fatigue and be so desperate for things to get back to normal that we'd not react so decisively.

That sort of fits some of my own behaviour, because I am not reacting to some of the frankly downright scary aspects of Ukraine - the possibility of full scale war in Europe, the increasingly authoritarian regime in Russia that is ringing lots of alarm bells with it's casual brutality, out and out lies,and vilification of out-groups, etc etc - with as much energy/anxiety as I would normally. It's like I've got anxiety fatigue or something.

The corollary of that is perhaps that precisely because we're all so over having our worlds turned upside down by crises after crises, the West is pretty united against Russian aggression and rather keen on seeing it ended sooner rather than later.

All eyes on Russia, if there's big political news, could be this monday.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Fri May 06, 2022 1:06 pm

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Fri May 06, 2022 12:58 pm

Thread on the likelihood of a coup in Russia: https://twitter.com/BenHNoble/status/15 ... AU7ssIgSKQ

tl;dr not likley.

Coups are often unthinkable until the moment they happen.

If there is a coup, though, and it is successful, we won't have heard about it in advance.

I would think this possibility is a big factor in Putin's decision to delay the surgery he's supposedly due to have. Or at least have it very secretly.

And when he has it - he'd better hope he comes round from the GA quick. The slightest glitch and delay in his recovery and it could be "game on" in coup terms.

OK - Putin has spoken.

Perhaps not as bellicose as some had feared (e.g. in relation to a wider war) but not good...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61353374

Russian President Vladimir Putin said troops and volunteers in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region were "fighting for the motherland, its future" and he accused the West of preparing for an "invasion of our land".

...given that Russian nuclear doctrine permits their use...

"in response to large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation."

So this "fighting for the future of the motherland" stuff is concerning.

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 8:18 am

OK - Putin has spoken.

Perhaps not as bellicose as some had feared (e.g. in relation to a wider war) but not good...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61353374

Russian President Vladimir Putin said troops and volunteers in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region were "fighting for the motherland, its future" and he accused the West of preparing for an "invasion of our land".

...given that Russian nuclear doctrine permits their use...

"in response to large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation."

So this "fighting for the future of the motherland" stuff is concerning.

Not really any change.

The one thing Russia has been escalating is its rhetoric.

It's been doing so as soon as it was clear that it wasn't going to install a puppet regime within the first week

bob sterman wrote: ↑

Mon May 09, 2022 8:18 am

OK - Putin has spoken.

Perhaps not as bellicose as some had feared (e.g. in relation to a wider war) but not good...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61353374

Russian President Vladimir Putin said troops and volunteers in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region were "fighting for the motherland, its future" and he accused the West of preparing for an "invasion of our land".

...given that Russian nuclear doctrine permits their use...

"in response to large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation."

So this "fighting for the future of the motherland" stuff is concerning.

Could have been a lot worse, there wasn't anything really shocking in that for anyone that's been following Russian rhetoric lately, largely more of the same. Re: nukes, we'll probably get some warning if they start digging tactical nukes out of storage and readying them, at which point western intelligence/governments will go apeshit. Strategic stuff is maintained at readiness, but they'll be exceptionally wary of touching of an ICBM, as Britain/France/America might respond in kind without waiting to see where it's heading.

One thing I noticed was Russian claims that the flypast had been cancelled due to the weather. The weather in footage of the parade is quite clear and pleasant, making we wonder if that was really the reason. A check of the forecast, however, suggests it could be - heavy rain is forecast for the rest of the day.

How much notice are we going to get before Putin pulls the nukes out of his back pocket?

I hope to be off of Plague Island and out of Europe soon, but I don't know how long I can stay away.

When contemplating the threat of nukes being used, one tends to think in terms only of Russia and NATO, but there are other big players who take a view on that sh.t. China, for example. The 21st century is shaping up kinda nicely for China and even if they weren't directly in the firing line they really don't want their richest customers reduced to radioactive ash. I hope that if it ever looks like Putin is winding up to do something really stupid and NATO is sending the wrong calming message, China will persuade him to stop and count to ten.

Count up, that is, not down.