Page 78 of 150
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 24, 2022 8:14 am
by Woodchopper
I'm a bit skeptical about that plan. As mentioned in the article it would take a policy change by Turkey, which hasn't exactly been very cooperative.
Also, it might not help that much. Much of Ukraine's pre-war port capacity is under Russian occupation or has been destroyed (eg Kherson, Mariupol). That does leave Odesa etc, but the port infrastructure and railway lines leading from agricultural areas are vulnerable to Russian air attack (by missiles or aircraft).
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 24, 2022 10:14 am
by Martin Y
It sounds like a non-starter to me. Persuading Turkey to open the Bosporus to warships is almost the least of the problems, compared to what you might expect them to do in the Black Sea other than start a wider war and get sunk by air or missile attack.
I can imagine a slight chance that a nation like Egypt which has historical friendly relations with Russia might manage to negotiate safe passage for grain carriers if Russia is persuaded that allowing humanitarian food shipments out would be good PR.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 24, 2022 11:21 am
by Woodchopper
Martin Y wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 10:14 am
I can imagine a slight chance that a nation like Egypt which has historical friendly relations with Russia might manage to negotiate safe passage for grain carriers if Russia is persuaded that allowing humanitarian food shipments out would be good PR.
Maybe, though I suspect that Russia may see food shipments as a form of leverage to be used to get the rest of the world to accept a deal (eg if Russia were to annex the areas it currently controls and offer to allow wheat exports to those states that recognize the annexation).
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 24, 2022 6:57 pm
by Sciolus
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Wed May 25, 2022 2:04 pm
by Woodchopper
Putin has signed a decree which opens the way for issuing Russian passports to people in the occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhya regions.
https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/statu ... EpFAHEYPng
Which is a step toward annexing the territory.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Wed May 25, 2022 5:31 pm
by Grumble
Pretty much a direct consequence of the invasion of Ukraine is the announcement today of the cancellation of the Finnish MotoGP. The track facilities aren’t finished yet, it’s more difficult getting materials into Finland currently, and a large number of attendees were expected to be Russian. Effectively it was a way of having a Russian MotoGP without holding it in Russia.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sat May 28, 2022 4:08 pm
by EACLucifer
Reportedly Putin's pledged not to use the removal of Ukrainian minefields - something that would have to occur for grain exports from Odesa - to attack.
It would be an awful lot more convincing if they hadn't used the clearing of mined roads round Mariupol for evacuation of civilians as an opportunity to attack.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon May 30, 2022 12:55 pm
by Woodchopper
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 7:29 am
by bjn
f.ck Orban.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 7:40 am
by Bird on a Fire
bjn wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 7:29 am
f.ck Orban.
I notice that the pipeline in question goes through Ukraine. It would be an awful shame if something were to happen to it. Cant imagine the Ukrainians are too pleased about a Russian money pump flowing through their territory.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 8:52 am
by tom p
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 7:40 am
bjn wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 7:29 am
f.ck Orban.
I notice that the pipeline in question goes through Ukraine. It would be an awful shame if something were to happen to it. Cant imagine the Ukrainians are too pleased about a Russian money pump flowing through their territory.
Can't imagine they would like to have millions of gallons of oil flowing onto their land & bespoiling it either
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 11:18 am
by dyqik
tom p wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 8:52 am
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 7:40 am
bjn wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 7:29 am
f.ck Orban.
I notice that the pipeline in question goes through Ukraine. It would be an awful shame if something were to happen to it. Cant imagine the Ukrainians are too pleased about a Russian money pump flowing through their territory.
Can't imagine they would like to have millions of gallons of oil flowing onto their land & bespoiling it either
Pipelines do have valves etc. on them.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 12:10 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Yeah I was thinking something a bit more sophisticated than blowing it up, but I'm not an engineer.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 1:00 pm
by tom p
dyqik wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 11:18 am
tom p wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 8:52 am
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 7:40 am
I notice that the pipeline in question goes through Ukraine. It would be an awful shame if something were to happen to it. Cant imagine the Ukrainians are too pleased about a Russian money pump flowing through their territory.
Can't imagine they would like to have millions of gallons of oil flowing onto their land & bespoiling it either
Pipelines do have valves etc. on them.
Aye, but if you can access the valve & close it, what happens? Pressure builds up along the pipe & are you certain there's not a weak spot somewhere along the Ukranian stretch?
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 1:35 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
I guess if you can access all the valves on your stretch, you can prevent the pressure build up sufficiently to prevent a spill there.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 2:44 pm
by dyqik
tom p wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 1:00 pm
dyqik wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 11:18 am
tom p wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 8:52 am
Can't imagine they would like to have millions of gallons of oil flowing onto their land & bespoiling it either
Pipelines do have valves etc. on them.
Aye, but if you can access the valve & close it, what happens? Pressure builds up along the pipe & are you certain there's not a weak spot somewhere along the Ukranian stretch?
That's really not how it works.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 2:45 pm
by dyqik
El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 1:35 pm
I guess if you can access all the valves on your stretch, you can prevent the pressure build up sufficiently to prevent a spill there.
And the pumping systems have pressure shutoffs, to prevent that ever happening.
In any case, it's likely that the static maximum pressure limit of the pumps is lower than the burst pressure of the pipeline.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 3:11 pm
by Grumble
dyqik wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 2:45 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 1:35 pm
I guess if you can access all the valves on your stretch, you can prevent the pressure build up sufficiently to prevent a spill there.
And the pumping systems have pressure shutoffs, to prevent that ever happening.
In any case, it's likely that the static maximum pressure limit of the pumps is lower than the burst pressure of the pipeline.
That should be the case if built to any kind of standards.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 5:15 pm
by dyqik
Grumble wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 3:11 pm
dyqik wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 2:45 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 1:35 pm
I guess if you can access all the valves on your stretch, you can prevent the pressure build up sufficiently to prevent a spill there.
And the pumping systems have pressure shutoffs, to prevent that ever happening.
In any case, it's likely that the static maximum pressure limit of the pumps is lower than the burst pressure of the pipeline.
That should be the case if built to any kind of standards.
And maintained...
Which probably puts the highest risk portions in Russia.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue May 31, 2022 8:51 pm
by jimbob
I think I posted this video earlier, which is in Finnish but with English subtitles.
Very interesting. From 2018, a lecture by a retired Finnish intelligence colonel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw&t=1600s
Lenin once said 'try it with a bayonet, if it's soft, push, if it's hard, leave'
Seems entirely accurate for discussing how Russia has reacted to ramping up support for Ukraine and indeed the other provocations by Russia until getting some pushback
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:37 am
by tom p
dyqik wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 2:44 pm
tom p wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 1:00 pm
dyqik wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 11:18 am
Pipelines do have valves etc. on them.
Aye, but if you can access the valve & close it, what happens? Pressure builds up along the pipe & are you certain there's not a weak spot somewhere along the Ukranian stretch?
That's really not how it works.
How does it work?
I'm no engineer, so I'd be keen to understand.
Are such pipes usually full, or might there usually be less oil than the pipe can manage? Does the buildup of pressure get immediately informed to the pumphouse? If so, how? I know this isn't your area of expertise, but you (and others) clearly know far more than me
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:39 am
by Martin_B
tom p wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:37 am
dyqik wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 2:44 pm
tom p wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 1:00 pm
Aye, but if you can access the valve & close it, what happens? Pressure builds up along the pipe & are you certain there's not a weak spot somewhere along the Ukranian stretch?
That's really not how it works.
How does it work?
I'm no engineer, so I'd be keen to understand.
Are such pipes usually full, or might there usually be less oil than the pipe can manage? Does the buildup of pressure get immediately informed to the pumphouse? If so, how? I know this isn't your area of expertise, but you (and others) clearly know far more than me
Oil pipelines, if running at below 100% capacity, don't run with oil and vapour, they are generally still oil-filled just with a lower velocity. Vapour may form if the pressure reduces such that some oil evaporates, but that would be an unusual thing to do in a processed oil pipeline as two-phase flow is so much more difficult to deal with than single-phase flow.
So the pipeline will be liquid-filled and if you close a valve in the pipeline* the pressure will start building up at the pumphouse pretty quickly. The pressure wave gets communicated at the speed of sound, and while that's slower in oil than in water, it's still ~1400 m/s (~5000 km/h) so the pump will pretty quickly know that there's a blockage.
The pump discharge pressure then starts increasing, making the pump have to work harder to pump each molecule into the pipeline. Eventually, the pressure will reach a point where the pump can't push more liquid into the pipeline. Before this happens, there should be instruments and safety valves to relieve the pressure, but the ultimate safety measure (usually) is that the pipeline can take more pressure than the pump can ever deliver.
Now there can be weak spots due to poor quality pipe or welding, or people can sabotage the pipeline to create weak spots, but otherwise it's very difficult to burst a pipe due to pump pressure alone.
* Any valves tend to be out of the way, behind fences, underground, or otherwise not in locations where just anybody can access them to open/close them.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:23 am
by Grumble
Martin_B wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:39 am
the ultimate safety measure (usually) is that the pipeline can take more pressure than the pump can ever deliver.
And this is usually backed up by a safety margin. There’s a design pressure but to be certified to meet that it will have to be tested to at least 1.5x the design pressure (different standards vary)
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Wed Jun 01, 2022 11:32 am
by dyqik
Martin_B wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:39 am
tom p wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:37 am
dyqik wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 2:44 pm
That's really not how it works.
How does it work?
I'm no engineer, so I'd be keen to understand.
Are such pipes usually full, or might there usually be less oil than the pipe can manage? Does the buildup of pressure get immediately informed to the pumphouse? If so, how? I know this isn't your area of expertise, but you (and others) clearly know far more than me
Oil pipelines, if running at below 100% capacity, don't run with oil and vapour, they are generally still oil-filled just with a lower velocity. Vapour may form if the pressure reduces such that some oil evaporates, but that would be an unusual thing to do in a processed oil pipeline as two-phase flow is so much more difficult to deal with than single-phase flow.
So the pipeline will be liquid-filled and if you close a valve in the pipeline* the pressure will start building up at the pumphouse pretty quickly. The pressure wave gets communicated at the speed of sound, and while that's slower in oil than in water, it's still ~1400 m/s (~5000 km/h) so the pump will pretty quickly know that there's a blockage.
The pump discharge pressure then starts increasing, making the pump have to work harder to pump each molecule into the pipeline. Eventually, the pressure will reach a point where the pump can't push more liquid into the pipeline. Before this happens, there should be instruments and safety valves to relieve the pressure, but the ultimate safety measure (usually) is that the pipeline can take more pressure than the pump can ever deliver.
Now there can be weak spots due to poor quality pipe or welding, or people can sabotage the pipeline to create weak spots, but otherwise it's very difficult to burst a pipe due to pump pressure alone.
* Any valves tend to be out of the way, behind fences, underground, or otherwise not in locations where just anybody can access them to open/close them.
There are also multiple pumping stations (20 total among the several branches) along this line, which is operated within Ukraine by a Ukrainian company. If there's a pumping station in Ukraine, then that can be shut down. There will be shutoff isolation valve locations at multiple points to respond to a break in the line or to isolate sections for maintenance.
There's also a branch point in Western Ukraine that can choose how much oil goes to Germany via Slovakia, or to Hungary. Just redirecting oil would be enough for the pipeline to get shut down by Russia.
Re: The Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:46 pm
by tom p
Fascinating, thanks guys